2023 World Championships

[daveg]

With a week to go until the big one, thought I'd post my thoughts and a few bets ahead of the World Championship that starts on Thursday December 15th.

 

Top 7 in the betting

 

Michael van Gerwen (11/4 Betway, 5/2 General)

Van Gerwen comes into the World Championships as favourite, and in my eyes is the most likely winner of the event. His form towards the back end of the season has been excellent, winning the Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals and reaching the quarter-finals of the Grand Slam. Earlier on in the year he also captured the Premier League and World Matchplay, and having looked a bit vulnerable for the last couple of seasons, he looks like he is on his way back to his best. His record at the World Champs is impressive, three titles (2014, 2017 & 2019) and runner-up twice (2013 & 2020) in the last ten years. The last six players to beat him at Ally Pally have had to average in excess of 100 to beat him – so you have to play very well to defeat him in this event. Van Gerwen had to withdraw from the event 12 months ago due to Covid, I reckon he takes all the beating this time around.

 

Gerwyn Price (6/1 General)

Gerwyn Price comes into Ally Pally as the second favourite and number one seed, but I’m finding it a bit difficult to read his form right now. A finalist at the Matchplay earlier on in the year, he reached the semi-finals of the Grand Prix but exited in the first round of the European Championship and Players Championship Finals. As a former winner, the ‘Iceman’ has to be respected, but I don’t think he’s playing his best right now. I suspect Price will go fairly deep in the tournament, but I don’t see him winning it this year. 

 

Michael Smith (8/1 Unibet, 15/2 General)

‘Bully Boy’ finally captured his first TV Major at the Grand Slam of Darts last month, and his second might not be too far away. Even before the Grand Slam, Smith was having a decent season, reaching the final of the UK Open and European Championships as well as winning three Players Championship events and one European Tour event. His record at the World Championship over the last four years has been feast or famine. Early exits in 2020 and 2021 are sandwiched by appearances in the final in 2019 and 2022. In last year’s final he averaged over 99 and led Peter Wright 5-4, before Wright played some spell-binding darts to reel off the final three sets. With the added confidence of his first TV major, Smith has every chance of going all the way this year.

 

Peter Wright (11/1 General)

It’s not been the best of years for Peter Wright, and that’s before we take a look at his results on the dartboard. An operation over the summer ruled him out of World Series events in Australia and New Zealand, and whilst he bounced back to win on the European Tour in September, he’s been hit by further setbacks with the health of his wife. As a result ‘Snakebite’ pulled out of the Players Championship Finals so his preparation hasn’t been ideal, and with matters off the oche rightly his priority at the moment, Wright doesn’t appeal this time around. As defending champion Wright could make the 11/1 quotes look massive come the New Year, but equally it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he lost on the opening night and prioritised his personal life over Christmas.

 

Luke Humphries (14/1 General)

Luke Humphries comes into the World Championships as a major threat in my opinion. ‘Cool Hand Luke’ won four European Tour titles earlier in the year and has followed that up with semi-final appearances at both the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals. His record at the World Championships is also pretty good, a quarter-finalist in three of the last four seasons – and he’s arguably playing much better coming into the tournament this time around than in previous years. Unfortunately, Humphries is in the same quarter of the draw as Michael Smith, but Humphries is up to number five in the World now, you don’t get there without performing consistently well in the big events.

 

Josh Rock (16/1 General)

I’m a big fan of Josh Rock and what he’s achieved this year, but can’t help feel the hype surrounding the young Northern Irishman has bought his price in too far, and he’s become unbackable for me now. This has been Rock’s debut season on the PDC Pro Tour and in the second half of the year he’s played some incredible darts, consistently averaging in the high 90’s. Parallels are being drawn to when Rob Cross burst onto the scene in 2017, but in that season Cross reached the final of the European Championship, two European Tour events and won four Players Championship events. In comparison Rock has won one Players Championship and didn’t progress past the second round in any of the big tournaments towards the back end of the year. There’s no doubt ‘Rocky’ has had a great debut season, but at odds of 16/1 he’s not for me this time around. (Nathan Aspinall, Rob Cross and Danny Noppert have all reached major TV finals and plenty of floor finals this year, and can be backed at twice the odds of Rock).

 

Jonny Clayton (18/1 General)

Jonny Clayton has had another decent season in the non-ranking events, but he’s disappointed in most of the big ranking events recently, losing out in the second round of the Grand Prix, European Championships and Grand Slam. In the most recent tournament, the Players Championship Finals, he made it through to the semi-finals, but his level seems to have dropped compared to the last couple of years. His record at the World Championship doesn’t inspire confidence either, having never made it to the quarter-finals in six attempts.

 

A few others at bigger prices

 

Rob Cross (33/1 General)

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag this season for Cross, disappointing in most of the big TV majors, but then last time out making the final of the Players Championship Finals. Away from the big stage, he’s reached the final of three European Tour events and picked up two titles on the floor in the Players Championship events – so there are signs Cross could do some damage at Ally Pally. He seems slightly over-priced at 33/1, but being in the same quarter as van Gerwen has dampened my enthusiasm for ‘Voltage’.

 

Nathan Aspinall (40/1 Unibet, 33/1 General)

Aspinall has had some injury concerns over the last 18 months, so it’s pretty impressive that he’s bounced back to reach two major finals this year; runner-up to van Gerwen at the Grand Prix and to Michael Smith at the Grand Slam. Aspinall has also reached five finals on the floor this season, more than any other player, winning two of them. ‘The Asp’ has also reached the semi-finals at Ally Pally in two of the last four years, so knows what it takes to go deep in this tournament. The draw could have been kinder to Aspinall, Rock or Callan Rydz in round three, and then seeded to play Clayton in round four and Wright in the quarter-finals, but I’m not ruling out another good showing from Aspinall.

 

Beau Greaves (400/1 PaddyPower)

I won’t be backing Beau Greaves, even at 400/1, but I’m hoping she can shake things up a bit at Ally Pally this year. The 18-year-old has been sensational in the PDC Women’s Series this year, she’s won the last eight events in the series to qualify for this event, a total of 52 consecutive matches. Whilst the quality of opposition clearly isn’t as good as on the main PDC Pro Tour, that takes some doing. Across those 52 matches she’s averaged 85.8, but in many of those games her average would probably have been higher if she’d have been pushed a bit more. An indication of how she can perform was seen in final of the penultimate Women’s Series event, where she beat Fallon Sherrock 5-3 and averaged close to 108. She’ll surely have the Ally Pally crowd behind her, and whilst she won’t be carrying my money, she will have my support – until she faces Michael Smith in the semi-final ?.

 

So it’s Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith to win the title. I can’t ignore the chances of Luke Humphries to have a deep run, and will take a chance on Nathan Aspinall to see off the highly fancied Josh Rock early on and reach the semi-finals.

 

Michael van Gerwen to win Outright 5 pts @ 11/4 Betway

Michael Smith to win Outright 3 pts @ 8/1 Unibet

Luke Humphries to reach Quarter-Finals 5 pts @ 6/4 PaddyPower

Nathan Aspinall to win the Third Quarter 2 pts @ 9/1 BetVictor

[Fader]

nice one dave. I'm going to have a proper look at the Worlds over the weekend but probably agree that it's a tournament that MVG should win.