Racing Chat - Friday 4th November

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras are at Down Royal and Exeter for seven live races on Friday which should make for some good viewing. Luckily rain has hit the West Country so the ground is likely to ride on the easy side of good whilst it’ll be slower in Ireland for the Down Royal meeting which Gordon Elliott seems to farm each year. Below are my thoughts on the seven races.

 

Down Royal 1.30

A competitive 2m 1F grade 3 mares novice hurdle where Willie Mullins saddles four of the eleven runners. Paul Townend is on Nikini who’s won both her hurdle starts and steps up in grade today whilst Danny Mullins is on board Saylavee who was a 15L winner of a Gowran Park maiden hurdle on her hurdling debut. The third member of the Mullins team shouldn’t be dismissed either. Champagne Problem is ridden by Mr Pat Taaffe as his family own the mare and following two easy enough victories at Cork and Kilbeggan was runner up in a listed mares hurdle to Norman Lee’s She Is Electric with the pair pulling well clear of the remainder. Mullins also saddles Carrigmoorna Queen but she wasn’t that impressive when winning on her hurdling debut at Listowel and with Brian Hayes on board looks the 3rd or even 4th string. There are some other promising mares here with Gordon Elliott (who always does so well at this meeting)un-leashing Liberty Dance who’s unlucky not to be unbeaten in three bumpers last season. Elliot sounded bullish in a recent stable tour in the Racing Post about her for the season and it would be no shock were she to run a big race on her hurdling debut. Noel Meade has a very interesting runner in The Model Kingdom who won three bumpers last season and landed the odds laid on her on her hurdles debut at Tipperary last month. She could be very good. This looks a race that’s going to take some winning and to small stakes I’ll take Champagne Problem at the prices each way.

 

CHAMPAGNE PROBLEM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 @ 10/1 1/5th 123

 

Exeter 1.50

The first of four races from the Devon racecourse is a class 4 2m 5 1/2F mares’ handicap hurdle. It has a very open look about it with many holding chances. Last year’s winner, trained by Dan Skelton, Martha Brae is only 4lb higher than 12 months ago and despite a 173 day absence has to be on the short list especially if strong in the market. Harry Fry sets a poser by saddling a brace of mares making their handicap debuts in Whisky Express and Ma Belle Noire. Both are returning from a lay off and it’s hard to split them although no doubt the market will tell which is the more favoured. Kieran Burke has had a good run with his The Height Of Fame who dead heated with a stable companion last time out at Newton Abbot. He too can be competitive. Bottom weight Bonnie Bresil is another making her handicap debut (there’s six of them here) and could be well treated. A real puzzle but I’ll go with last years victor Martha Brae in the hope the Skelton’s have her ready for this first run of the season.

 

MARTHA BRAE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

Down Royal 2.05

This looks a match between Gordon Elliott’s two smart hurdlers Fil Dor and Pied Piper. Official ratings have them on the same mark of 147 and there shouldn’t really be much between them here. There was only a neck between them (in Fil Dor’s favour) when third and fourth in last season’s Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The one difference here is the fact that Pied Piper has been out this season already when a cosy winner at Cheltenham two weeks ago whilst Fil Dor hadn’t been seen for 188 days. It’s hard to fancy any of other three and this is really a no bet race with the market having it about right with Pied Piper the odds on favourite.

 

Exeter 2.25

Only three go to post for this 3M class 2 novice chase but it’s still an interesting race to say the least. Very smart long distance hurdler Thyme Hill is making his chasing debut for the Philip Hobbs team and when you consider his hurdle mark is 161 and his two opponents are rated 132 and 137 you can understand how he’s such a short price. If he can reproduce his smart hurdle form he wins here it’s a simple as that but he’s rising 9 years of age and Hobbs is not in the best of form so at the prices I’ll take him on. The other pair are Chris Gordon’s Press Your Luck and Paul Nicholls’ Flash Collonges. They met at Chepstow last month where Gordon’s charge ran out a comfortable 5 1/2L winner, always looking like he had Flash Collonges well beat. The latter re-opposes on 8lb better term but such was the authority of Press Your Luck that I’ll play him to small stakes.

 

PRESS YOUR LUCK 1 point win @ 5/1 BetVictor

 

Down Royal 2.40

A dozen chasers line up for this 2m 100 yards handicap chase. Gordon Elliott sets a poser by saddling top weight Gevrey with Davy Russell on board and the Jack Kennedy ridden The Greek. The latter won a race at Perth in September that fell apart with two of his three opponents failing to complete. I much prefer the former who’s Limerick victory last month has already been boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up Optional Mix. Last year’s winner Espionage Du Chenet is now some 22lb higher although has obviously improved in the interim. Stuart Crawford’s Now Where And When was last seen at Fairyhouse last April when chasing home Gevrey at levels and is now 11lb better off. If straight he can go well for a stable that have won with two of their last three runners. A tough call again but it’s top weight Gevrey for me even if there is a slight doubt about him dropping to the minimum trip.

 

GEVREY 1 point win 7/2 William Hill

 

Exeter 3.00

Next up is a class 3 3M handicap chase with eleven declared. Joe Tizzard has his string in excellent shape with five of his last eight runners all winning and saddles Killer Kane here who’s returning from a 209 day absence. A dual winner at Kempton and Sandown last season he can be thereabouts if straight enough. Christian Williams has taken over the training of the former Philip Hobbs inmate Pileon and is an interesting runner though he didn’t look a natural jumper in two starts over fences for Hobbs and Williams has yet to get going so far this season so is overlooked. Neon Moon is an interesting runner for David Pipe who makes his fencing debut here and is worth a close monitor in the betting market. The pick though has to Emma Lavelle’s Minella Buster who looked a chaser to follow when cantering home in a five runner Kempton handicap chase last month on his chase debut. A former Irish point winner he could still be very well handicapped with just a 9lb rise to contend with. Tom Bellamy was on board that day and retains the ride.

 

MINELLA BUSTER 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Exeter 3.35

This year’s renewal of the Haldon Gold Cup formerly run on a Tuesday has attracted just five runners and is run over 2m 1F 109 Yards. Us And Them is impossible to fancy from 8lb wrong at the weights and Dolos may not be up to beating these at this time of the season. Paul Nicholls trains Dolos and top weight Greaneteen who won this contest a couple of years ago off of a 17lb lower mark. He was soundly beaten in this last year before winning the Tingle Creek and one wonders whether that’s the plan again. Joe Tizzard is flying at the moment and his War Lord, who has a good record fresh, was a smart novice last season and can run well but my fancy is the Dan Skelton trained Third Time Lucki. Skelton hit form over the weekend with a big race double at Wetherby and you would think he would of had this race in mind for his seven year old for a while. Like War Lord he was a smart novice last season winning three of his six starts and has won fresh. Any one of the ‘big’ three could take this but my preference has to be Third Time Lucki.

 

THIRD TIME LUCKI 1 point win @ 15/8 BetVictor

 

[Villa Chris]

Exeter 3.00 

St Erney 9.7 13/2 4th 

Minella Buster 9.2 10/3

One More Fleurie 9.2 28/1

Killer Kane 9.1 7/2

Competitive chase with most of them scoring high ratings . Killer Kane has the class to win this certainly and is the class horse . Minella Buster could still be way ahead of the handicapper. St Erney rides the course well and usually runs to a few Ibs higher around Exeter and is last years winner of the race . Harry Kimber who is in pretty hot form at the moment takes off 5Ibs and has won on him before. 
 

5 points win St Erney 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Exeter 3.35 

Greaneteen 8.92 3/1 won 

Dolos 8.45 15/2 2nd 

Third Time Lucki 8.2 13/8

 Although giving plenty of weight away, if he’s as ready as Paul Nicholls says he is then Greaneteen could be too good for these. Dolos is well handicapped , and unless Third Time Lucki has some significant improvement I can’t see him being good enough to win this . War Lord probably wants it softer .

 

3 points each on the Nicholls pair top two 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Fontwell 1.40 

Whatsupwithyou 9.15 11/4 

Sayadam 8.15 11/4 1st

top rated a bit clear and won a very strong race in the same grade last time out in April. Has won fresh before and looks a solid bet in a 6 horse race 

5 points win 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Zilzalian]

I love the Breeders cup did grim last year but made lots of dosh previously so im going to have a good scrutinise of the Keenlad cards for fri and sat. must be able get 4 out of that lot, and if anyone can get anywhere near 1/1 for flightline get your wheel barrow out and fill it with your grannies money and wheel it to the bookies. ?

[MCLARKE]

Still fine tuning my systems for the winter jumps season but one factor that stands out is the success of 5 year olds in November and December. The AE for them is 1.05.

I have read somewhere that horses reach their peak at 4.5 years, which is equivalent to 5 for UK horses (as they all have the same birthday, 1st January).

It would seem logical then to back them in races where they are the only 5 year old.

Tomorrows selections.

Fontwell	1.40	Sayadam	11/4
Down Royal	2.05	David Garrick	80/1
Fontwell	2.15	Family Business	16/1
Hexham	2.35	Twoshotsoftequila	8/1
Down Royal	2.40	Alice Avril	11/2
Down Royal	3.50	Carnfunnock	9/4

[Villa Chris]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Still fine tuning my systems for the winter jumps season but one factor that stands out is the success of 5 year olds in November and December. The AE for them is 1.05.

I have read somewhere that horses reach their peak at 4.5 years, which is equivalent to 5 for UK horses (as they all have the same birthday, 1st January).

It would seem logical then to back them in races where they are the only 5 year old.

Tomorrows selections.

Fontwell	1.40	Sayadam	11/4
Down Royal	2.05	David Garrick	80/1
Fontwell	2.15	Family Business	16/1
Hexham	2.35	Twoshotsoftequila	8/1
Down Royal	2.40	Alice Avril	11/2
Down Royal	3.50	Carnfunnock	9/4

Is that also true for Jump horses? I’d have thought Jump horses reach their peak older than that, but if the stats say otherwise. 

[Villa Chris]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I love the Breeders cup did grim last year but made lots of dosh previously so im going to have a good scrutinise of the Keenlad cards for fri and sat. must be able get 4 out of that lot, and if anyone can get anywhere near 1/1 for flightline get your wheel barrow out and fill it with your grannies money and wheel it to the bookies. ?

What’s day/time is he racing ? 

[fd1972uk]

55 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

What’s day/time is he racing ? 

Tomorrow 940

 

Tbh I'd rather chance it with epicentre or taiba, not worth a bet unless you want to risk a wad of money on odds on shot.

Edited November 4, 2022 by fd1972uk

[Sporting Sam]

Morning all.

First of a few today hopefully.

Just three line up here.
Thyme hill
Press your luck
Flash Collonges    
Rarely out of grade 1 this represents a big drop in class for Thyme hill rated 161 over hurdles.
If he jumps a fence he wins.
My strategy here is rather simple.
Press your luck blotted his copy book by whipping around at the start last time. Whilst he reappears fresh and unraced, he also has a massive weight reversal with Flash Collonges of eight pounds for a five lengths beating on previous meeting. They ran off levels then and Flash Collonges    can turn things around with the weight pull.
So Thyme hill can put some distance between himself and the field and bearing in mind his prohibitive odds, he can backed to win by three lengths+ at odds against.
Flash Collonges    can be backed to win without Thyme hill again at odds against.
Prediction
1st Thyme hill 
2nd Flash Collonges
-------------------------    
3rd ( with a run) Press your luck
That is a lot of eggs in the proverbial one basket but Paul Nicholls yard is running well and he'll will want to put Thyme hill under max pressure and could grab second or even win if TH doesn't jump.

Thyme hill to win by three + lengths

Flash collonges to win without Thyme hill

I just think the eight pound pull with pyl gets him second place.

[LEE-GRAYS]

My 200/1 nap is running over hurdles again today 8/1, not so good odds but worth a shot 4.00 fontwell milldean felix bet365 ?

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

What’s day/time is he racing ? 

940 keenland

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

My 200/1 nap is running over hurdles again today 8/1, not so good odds but worth a shot 4.00 fontwell milldean felix bet365 ?

stop bragging ??

[LEE-GRAYS]

26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

940 keenland

this evening 21.40

[kensland]

Exeter. 

Double. 

1.15. King of Lombardy.            4/1.... 2nd 

3.35. War Lord.                                    2/1..... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Is that also true for Jump horses? I’d have thought Jump horses reach their peak older than that, but if the stats say otherwise. 

I had in mind 8/9 years for chasers but I could have just mis-remembered this stat

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Is that also true for Jump horses? I’d have thought Jump horses reach their peak older than that, but if the stats say otherwise. 

My analysis for November / December over the jumps shows that 5 year olds have the best strike rate.

From January to April 6 year olds have the best strike rate. Because a horse has it's birthday on the 1st of January these are the same horses that were 5 in the preceding November / December.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I had in mind 8/9 years for chasers but I could have just mis-remembered this stat

Strike rates deteriorate as they get older, 

6yo 17%

7yo 14%

8yo 12%

9yo 11%

 

[kensland]

Double. 

2.15. Font. Rose Sea Has.      7/2.    2nd 

2.35. Hex. Feivel                            13/2.       3rd 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selections

Exeter	1.15	Lallygag	8/13
Exeter	2.25	Thyme Hill	4/7

[fd1972uk]

3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

this evening 21.40

It's the 5th November, tomorrow.

Silver knotting fav on that race, tomorrow is flightline.

[harry_rag]

17 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Strike rates deteriorate as they get older, 

6yo 17%

7yo 14%

8yo 12%

9yo 11%

 

So is that 17% of all races being won by 6yo to only 11% by 9yo?

I guess that needs to be considered alongside how many runners there are at the respective ages? If there were half as many of the older horses than the younger ones that would make the 11% look a lot more impressive than it does at first glance.

[The Equaliser]

28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Odds on selections

Exeter	1.15	Lallygag	8/13
Exeter	2.25	Thyme Hill	4/7

1.15 Ext Caitlins Court 0.5 ew at 125/1

2.25 Ex Flash Collonges 1 pt win at 6.0

Nb This is a bit of fun for me and follows on from when I ran a month's testing of the Big 3 tipsters of RP, ATR and Timeform last year.  Although there were a lot of winners they didn't pay for the losers at LSP.  This is no reflection on Michael's @MCLARKE's attempt to make a small profit for PL members it is just to see if I can come up with a way of making a bit of money myself by opposing the odds on favourites.  I will have a go with this up to a max loss of 50 points.

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

2.15 Font Parliament Hill 9/2 @Peter York 1 pt win at 9/2

3.00 Ex Killer Kane 7/2

5.15 Nc Hail Sezer 11/4

1 1 pt win Trixie = 4 points poss return 155.05

3.00 Ex St Erney 0.5 Ew at 15/2

6 pts staked so far

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Parliamnet Hill ran no sort of race at all; disappointing

3.00 Ex Killer Kane 1.50 win at 5.0

7 pts staked now

----------------------------------------------------------------

Killer Kane failed

5.15 Nc Hail Sezer 3 pts win at 3.80

10.50 points staked today

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No winners so 10.5 points lost today.  My MTD is -16.4 and YTD -228.14.

Opposing odds on shots = - 2 pts

Edited November 5, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

44 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I guess that needs to be considered alongside how many runners there are at the respective ages? If there were half as many of the older horses than the younger ones that would make the 11% look a lot more impressive than it does at first glance.

Yes, very fair point. It was a bit of a lazy analysis !

To be honest I don't really look at strike rate, I look at profitability based on the AE ratio. 

These are.

6yo 1.05

7yo 0.99

8yo 0.98

9yo 0.97

It makes sense to concentrate on the younger horses. It could be that they are better than the older horses. On the other hand it could be that the older horses are over bet because they are more familiar to punters or they have more form to analyse. This might also explain why horses with course or distance wins are overbet, the older the horse the more likely it is to have won over the course or distance before.

[MCLARKE]

BET365 TV offer selections

September was a very poor month with just 1 winner from 29 selections and a loss of £1,150

Total now 37 from 314, loss £2,747.50

I will plug on until I have a year's worth of selections

Today's selections

DOWN	2.40	The Greek	13/2
EXET	3.00	Minella Buster	5/1

[Villa Chris]

What’s going on at Exeter ? Basically just watched a 3m flat race 

[Villa Chris]

Is the problem low sun ? I’d have pulled my bets if so and if I’d known . Hate it when they miss a load of fences/hurdles out .

[azzybear]

man of the sea 4.08 

[Sporting Sam]

3.50

Down Royal

CARNFUNNOCK

Win

Gets seven pounds from the jolly a feature which not many punters realise happens in a regular basis in these bumpers. The top boys seem to have a truce with the other trainers to give them a half stone. You tell me why....