Racing chat- Saturday 15th Oct

[richard-westwood]

245 catt 

Zip  8.4  14/1 

Wobwobwob   8.2 13/2 

It just takes time 7.9 

Muntadab    7.9 

Not much flat left ...lets go 10pt ew top 2 

[The Brigadier]

The ground looks set to ride on the soft side of good to soft for Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Ascot 1.25

Eight stayers assemble for the 2M Long Distance Cup. Alan King’s Trueshan has won this contest for the last two years and is the one they all have to beat here. He has to put a disappointing effort at Doncaster behind him when going off at 2/9 and beaten a head by the re-opposing Coltrane when taking too keen a hold. But for that effort I feel he would be around an even money chance and I’m willing to forgive him that one off day and he’s the selection. I wouldn’t be shocked if Andrew Balding’s Coltrane was to run well although the biggest dangers to Trueshan will probably come from the two three year olds in St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov who’s stepping up to two miles for the first time and Aidan O’Brien’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville although an interesting fact is that eighteen three year olds have tried to win this race and none have succeeded. Official ratings have that pair 7lb and 16lb behind Trueshan with the former the most likely to chase my selection home. Quickthorn had a hard race in France last time and Ebor winner Trawlerman has plenty to do here.

 

TRUESHAN 3 points win @ 15/8 bet365

 

Ascot 2.00

Eighteen sprinters go to post the 6F Group 1 Champions Sprint. Kinross arrives in excellent form having won his last three starts over 7F and drops in trip here. He could only finish 9th in this last year and the trip may well be his undoing. Creative Force won this last year on similar ground and is reportedly in excellent shape so Charlie Appleby’s four year old has to be part of the staking plan. Art Power has attracted money over the last 24 hours and can be competitive although was behind Creative Force last year in this. Rohaan is four from five at the Berkshire track and teed up for this with a comfortable Group 3 win over course and distance a fortnight ago. He must go well although his only defeat here was in this very race last year when well beaten. Perfect Power also has a good track record winning two from two here and looks the best of the four three year olds. The best outsider and worth backing small each way with enhanced places is Charlie Hills’ Garrus who followed up a Group 3 victory at Deauville with a career best one length third in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at the same track a month later. That form looks red hot now with the winner Highfield Princess winning two group ones since and the runner up Minzaal also following up with victory in a group 1. A nose behind Garrus that day was Rohaan and it baffles me how he can be a 4/1 chance today whilst Garrus can be backed at 25/1.

 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GARRUS 1 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

Next up is the 1M 4F Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes. Current favourite is John and Thady Gosden’s Emily Upjohn who’s not been seen since pulling her chance away in the King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July. Throw in the fact that she’s not encountered easy ground on the race track and she’s a lay for me although the first time hood shouldn’t be seen as a negative with his stable having a good record when applying the hood for the first time. The Gosden’s also run Mimikyu who improved for a first time hood when an easy winner of the Park Hill by 2 3/4L from the re-opposing Eshaada. She has claims IF the hood works again. Eshaada won this last year in a battle with Albaflora and a case can be made for the pair of them here. William Haggas saddles Sea La Rosa who won over a two furlong longer trip on Arc Saturday last time and is a progressive filly. French trainer Francois Graffard saddles the ex Australian Verry Elleegant and Sweet Lady who beat Lilac Road in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last time. The latter is consistent and improving and appeals each way with enhanced places in what looks an open renewal. Charlie Appleby’s Eternal Pearl is yet another improver who’s won her last four starts and should also be in the shake up under William Buick. A tough call but I’ll play Sweet Lady and Eternal Pearl each way.

 

SWEET LADY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

ETERNAL PEARL 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

Ascot 3.20

Only nine go to post for the Queen Elizabeth ll Stakes run over the straight mile. John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral is a warm favourite at around evens and looks sure to be there at the finish. She bounced back to form at Deauville in August when winning the Prix Jacques Le Marois making it six wins from seven career starts. Whether she deserves to be as short as she is is another matter mind and at the current odds I’m against her. Officially rated a pound behind her main rival here in the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who was a very easy winner in America a month ago having previously chased home the superstar Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Both of those excellent efforts came on fast ground but he has shown winning form earlier in the season on officially good to soft when winning the French 2000 guineas (though Timeform rate the ground as good). He maybe the value bet against the favourite. Simon and Ed Crisford’s Jadoomi has been supplemented for this and is chasing a fourth straight win this season and is only officially rated 7lb behind Modern Games. French challenger The Revenant won this event two years ago and was 4th last season. He would only be on the radar if the ground was to change to very soft (unlikely). I’ll go with the Godolphin runner each way.

 

MODERN GAMES 1 1/2 points each way 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 4.00

Eight opponents take on the unbeaten Baaeed in this 10F Champions Stakes. This is predominately a no bet race just a sit back and enjoy contest with William Haggas’s Baaeed bowing out following an exceptional career having won all ten of his starts with the last six all being in group one company. It will be a major shock were he not to get the job done having looked better than ever when stepping up to 10F last time when beating Mishriff 6 1/2L. Charlie Appleby’s Adayar is the closest to him in the ratings and he can finish runner up before a trip to the Breeders Cup for the Breeders Cup Turf (for which the current 6/1 looks very tempting). The other seven all have far too much to find and this is Baaeed’s to lose.

 

Ascot 4.30

The most competitive race on the card is the last with the one mile Balmoral Handicap featuring a maximum field of twenty. A case can be made for many of these and currently the bookmakers are betting 7/1 the field. Blue For You, Escobar, Orbaan and Tyrrhenian Sea all tie in together on their York form at the Ebor meeting and all four have claims. William Haggas saddles three runners in the shape of Bashkirova, Sweet Believer and perhaps the most interesting in Montatham. The latter hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in this race last season at 100/1 but is the galloping companion of Baaeed’s no less so has to be given some respect. Last year’s 2nd and 3rd Symbolize and Magical Morning are back to try and do better and it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were involved in the finish. The horse I like however is David Menuisier’s Migration. Not seen since runner up to Modern Games in the Newbury Spring Cup last April he’s a decent handicapper who loves to get his toe in. His two wins last season were gained over 10F so will be finishing strongly with the jockey booking of William Buick an eye catching one. In a race that is very open he’ll do for me each way with enhanced places.

 

MIGRATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456