Racing chat-saturday 8th Oct

[richard-westwood]

315 york sprint trophy 

Gisburn 8.8 18/1 

Hyperfocus  8.6 16/1 

Air raid   8.6  20/1 

Dusky lord   8.3 

Dakota gold 8.1 

Silver samurai 8.1 

Good prices ....not many big races left ....let's go for a  big win 10pt wins top 3 ...1pt forecasts top 3 

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

The days racing at Newmarket kicks of with the Group 3 10F Zetalnd Stakes for two year olds. My initial thoughts were that I wanted to take on the short favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick but the more I delved into the race nothing really appealed against him. The favourite should relish the step up from a mile to ten furlongs and looked a top performer when an easy winner at Sandown and Salisbury (from subsequent winner Stormbuster) in the Summer. He went off a well backed 2/7 shot in the Royal Lodge last time when flopping in coming home only 3rd of the 4 runners beaten half a length. But for that defeat he would be an odds on chance here so if we can forgive him that effort then anything above evens is probably worth taking. The closest to the favourite on ratings is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Dear My Friend who ran his best race to date last time when third in a listed contest in France. Maiden winners Galactic Jack, Tenerife Sunshine (also trained by the Johnstones) and Blanchland will all need to step up so let’s go with the favourite but to smallish stakes as he did bomb out last time.

 

FLYING HONOURS 2 points win @ 5/4 BetVictor

 

York 2.05

Nine assemble for the listed Rockingham Stakes run over 6F of the Knavesmire. William Haggas’s Alpha Capture appeared to improve for cheek pieces when just touched off on the line by Cold Case in a in sales race at Doncaster 30 days ago and with Tom Marquand riding looks likely to go close. Cold Case has gone on to win the big Redcar sales contest from Holguin who was back in third in the Doncaster race and the 4th that day Galeron has gone over to The Curragh and plundered the Goffs Million so the form has a very solid look about it and he’ll be hard to beat. His main danger appears to Roger Varian’s Bolt Action who followed up a credible runner up spot in a listed contest at Ayr to beat the well thought of Wallop at Salisbury a fortnight later. He’s officially rated the same as Alpha Capture and can make him fight all the way. Richard Fahey saddles Rousing Encore who was runner up to the useful Sakheer last time but there was only one winner that day and if there is a horse who could step forward massively for his debut run then surely it’s Johnny Murtagh’s Bay Of Plenty who was very green when winning on his debut at Naas 23 days ago and it must be significant that Murtagh brings him over from his County Kildare base.

 

ALPHA CAPTURE 2 points win @ 15/8 Coral

BAY OF PLENTY 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 2.25

Another two year old contest, this time the Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Knott let us down last time and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here. The excuse for the lack lustre effort was the soft ground so he can be given another chance but I prefer Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy who can give Dewhurst favourite Nostrum a boost ahead of his race later on the card. He went down by a length and a quarter to Sir Michael Stoute’s smart juvenile over seven furlongs here a fortnight ago with the strongly fancied Victory Dance 3L away in third. That was a strong piece of form and the extra furlong should suit him. Epictetus is a very interesting runner who seemingly won unfancied in a maiden at the July course on his debut 92 days ago. That form has worked out well with four winners coming out of the race and he could easily be a player here but I’m sticking with the best form line of Holloway Boy.

 

HOLLOWAY BAY 2 points win @ 16/5 Paddy Power

 

York 2.40

A disappointing turnout for the time of the year for this 1m 2 1/2F class 2 handicap with just six entered including one (What’s The Story ) who also has an entry on Friday. Stay Well looks held by rival Marching Army and top weight Algiers has plenty on here on the back of a long absence for The Crisford’s. Saga has become a disappointing horse though does try a new trip today and this may be fought out by Saeed Bin Suroor’s Marching Army who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and William Haggas’s Protagonist who was badly drawn last time out in the Cambridgeshire. It’s hard to split the pair with slight preference for the latter who ended up finishing second of eight on his far side group last time and on his previous two victories at Doncaster and Sandown looks sure to be thereabouts.

 

PROTAGONIST 1 point win @ 11/4 Betfred

 

Newmarket 3.00

Next up is the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes for two year olds run over 7F of the Rowley mile. Unfortunately Sakheer who was supplemented on Monday was taken out of the race at the eleventh hour with a dirty scope which must have been infuriating for his connections. The warm favourite here is Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum who looked so good when winning over course and distance 16 days ago from Holloway Boy who runs in the previous race and could well give him a late form boost. As smart as he looked that day he represents scant value to my eyes at around the 6/4 mark and it’s the owners other runner trained by Andrew Balding Chaldean who I want to be with. He’s beaten the same horse (Indestructible) on his last two outings and there will no doubt be people asking what he’s actually beaten but his trainer was very complimentary after his latest win saying he’s a ‘high class horse in the making’ and with some firms paying three places here in this seven runner contest can be played each way. Charlie Appleby saddles his Naval Power who’s stepping up in grade having won two listed contests but didn’t blow me away with his performance last time and looks short enough in the market at around 10/3. I wouldn’t discount Brian Meehan’s Isaac Shelby who’s had a break since winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes back in July. He looks over priced at double figure odds.

 

CHALDEAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123

 

York 3.15

A widely competitive twenty two runner 6F class 2 sprint completes the televised York coverage. Interestingly 8 of the last 10 winners of this race were drawn in a single figure stall so it may pay to concentrate on those drawn low. That would rule our Gulliver who’s won two of the last three renewals of this event off of higher handicap marks (drawn in 22) and last year’s runner up Laugh A Minute from stall 21. Course specialist (5 wins from 11 starts) Dakota Gold looks interesting from stall 2 and likewise from box 1 Roger Varian’s Dusky Lord who took his field apart in the Ayr Silver Cup last time for which he’s been given a 9lb rise in the weights. I’ll take him to back that win up although I wouldn’t discount last year’s winner Volatile Analyst at big price to bounce back to form.

 

DUSKY LORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Newmarket 3.40

For the first time this century we have less than thirty runners contesting this years renewal of the Cesarewitch Handicap with a mere 23 runners going to post for the 2m 2F contest. Following the sad news of the Pipe’s Adagio dropping down dead following a a heart attack on the gallops on Friday morning ( who incidentally would of been a very strong fancy of mine) the market is now headed by two NH trainers in Nicky Henderson’s Ahorsewithnoname and Charles Byrne’s Run For Oscar. Both have solid chances with my slight preference for the former who’s been trained for this just like last years winner Buzz by the Seven Barrows maestro. She won two two mile handicaps in the Spring in facile fashion and despite a 10lb rise for her latest win at York could still be ahead of her mark. Ryan Moore has been booked and she’s the main bet in the race. Others that can run well include Frankie Dettori’s mount Zoffee who didn’t get the clearest of runs when last seen at York in August whilst Gibraltar is one of three left in by Irish trainer Willie Mullins who has a good record in the race having won three of the lat four renewals. His other two runners are Scaramanga (first run for the Closutton trainer) and Baby Zeus (now the mount of William Buick) and have to be given respect. She may not be much of a price for such a big field handicap but Ahorsewithnoname can take this for Henderson who’s won this race three times before.

 

AHORSEWITHNONAME 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456