Racing Chat - Saturday 1st October

[The Brigadier]

The ground is crucial at the three televised UK Cards on Saturday with a big band of rain moving across the country mid afternoon Friday into the evening and I’m taking a chance that the ground will be on the easy side at all three meetings. If the forecast is right we may be able to seek out some value on the soft ground performers now. Let’s hope the rain arrives in bucket loads or it’s going to be an expensive afternoon !

 

Newmarket 1.31

Newmarket’s card kicks off with a 10F class 2 handicap for fillies where we have many lightly raced types. My two against the field are George Boughey’s I’ll Be There and Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Estella with the latter making her handicap debut today. Both won last time out in soft ground so they’ll be no issues with not handling the ground here. A couple whom have yet to encounter easy ground are favourite Al Husn and Persist. I’ll split my two fancies and back both win only with the Stoute runner Crystal Estella the favoured of the duo with her latest winning jockey William Buick stating after he had won on her at Goodwood back in May that she ‘likes the ground which was key’. She has an absence to overcome but can be competitive with Richard Kingscote now in the plate. Boughey’s I’ll Be There will be ridden by Buick himself having won on her on her stable debut at Sandown 17 days ago on soft ground. She’s been raised 6lb for that success.

 

CRYSTAL ESTELLA 1 point win @ 7/1 Paddy Power

I’LL BE THERE 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365

 

Ascot 1.51

A dozen speedsters go to post for the listed 5F Rous Stakes and with Friday’s rain hopefully getting into the Berkshire turf I’m looking for mudlarks there this afternoon. Last year’s winner Tis Marvellous has claims though did run a bit flat when easy to back at Newbury last time out. John Ryan’s Manaccan has been pulled out twice in his career due to softening ground conditions so is over looked. Julie Camacho has her team in fine shape and her Ainsdale is one that will appreciate any easing of the ground. Andrew Balding’s Kings Lynn is another who won’t mind the conditions but a 7lb penalty may put paid to his chances. I’m going to take a chance on Ed Walker’s Came From The Dark who must have softish ground and was thought of by his shrewd handler at the start of the season as a possible group one horse. Things havn’t worked out for the grey though with two lack lustre efforts in the spring on fast ground and reappears here having had a wind surgery and with his trainer stating in this week’s Weekender that his recent work has been excellent and the operation has been a success. On the figures he only has 4lb to find with the top weighted here Acklam Express and at double figure odds is worth chancing with Danny Tudhope in the saddle for the first time.

 

CAME FROM THE DARK 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.06

A bumper field of 29 go to post for this 6F Tattersalls October Auction Stakes with many here easy to strike a line through. Current favourite is the Ed Walker trained Amichi who won a similar contest on the July course five weeks ago on only his third start. Form that has stood up with the third Eddies Boy winning a Group 3 at Chantilly since. He should go well but is hardly value at around the 3/1 mark for a horse that is officially (at these weights) rated a stone inferior to his stable mate Union Court. She’s the highest rated here but hasn’t won since bagging a brace of victories in May and June. Rod Millman has done well in these type of sales races in the past and saddles a couple with chances in the Neil Callan ridden Safari Dream and Trevor Whelan ridden Woolhampton. The former is the most interesting of the duo to me having won two nurseries this season at the minimum trip and steps up to 6F today. He’s progressive and in a race I don’t really have too strong an opinion on is worth a small each way bet with additional places.

 

SAFARI DREAM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.25

The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes is up next with just nine runners. William Haggas saddles his smart Hamish who looked likely to topple the smart Kyprios in the Irish St Leger last time until that game one battled on well. It was still a hell of an effort and he’ll be hard to beat today on easy ground that suits. Aidan O’Brien’s High Definition is actually the highest rated in the race but he’s become rather disappointing despite keeping good company all season. He’s not won since taking the Beresford Stakes at The Curragh a couple of years ago, some eleven runs ago and he’ll hopefully make the market for Hamish who is a confident selection despite his 3lb penalty.

 

HAMISH 3 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 2.42

The feature race of the day is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes run over a mile for fillies and mares and has attracted a field of nine this year. The race revolves around Jane Chapple-Hyam’s flag bearer Saffron Beach who won this event last year by three lengths. She’s gone from strength to strength this season winning at Ascot (Group 2) and Deauville (Group 1) before a slightly below par second to Pearls Galore at Leopardstown in the Group one Matron Stakes three weeks ago. She had Dermot Weld’s three year old Homeless Songs 2 1/2L behind that day and on two pound better terms can confirm the form even though Homeless Songs now sports a first time tongue tie. She’s probably better than that run but at around 11/4 I’m not going to pay to find out. The unexposed one is the John and Thady Gosden trained Laurel who takes a massive step up in class following wins at Newmarket on the July course from perpetual loser Mashaaer and a comfortable win on the all weather at Kempton. She looks highly promising but has yet to encounter give in the ground and on official ratings has 22lb to find with Saffron Beach who has to be the selection.

 

SAFFRON BEACH 3 points win @ 13/8 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.00

Fourteen go to post for the Group 3 Bengough Stakes run over 6F of the Berkshire track. Best in at the weights and the one I like is David Evans’ Rohann who is three from four at the track and has won on all types of ground so the weather can do what it likes! His latest 3rd in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock is a good piece of form (Flaming Rib 3/4L further back)and this drop in class looks ideal for this Andrea Atzeni ridden four year old. He may have most to fear from the smart handicappers Comanche Falls and Summerghand who were separated by just a length in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out with the former 7lb better off for the length beating and should turn the tables on his rival today. Easing of the ground would be against the super mare Gale Force Mayo, Ehraz, Tiber Flow and Diligent Harry and it’s all about Rohaan for me.

 

ROHAAN 2 points win @ 7/2 Paddy Power

 

Redcar 3.21

A field of seventeen assemble for the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy, a listed contest run over 6F for two year olds. Cold Case comes here on the back of a good win at Doncaster in their sales race ( Holguin 3rd and looks held) and holds every chance today for trainer Kevin Ryan and jockey Clifford Lee. Also on the short list has to be Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who was a Group 3 winner at Ayr last time. The best in at these weights today is the Michael Bell trained Maylandsea and it would be no shock were she to run well here off of her allotted weight. I’ll stick with Barefoot Angel if she can cope with the likely softish ground (she was a 6L runner up to the smart Swingalong on her debut on good to soft) and she looks good each way value.

 

BAREFOOT ANGEL 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.36

The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup is a class 2 handicap run over the straight 7F and feature eighteen handicappers. On similar ground Fresh beat Silent Film and River Nymph over course and distance in a similar handicap a month ago by a neck and a short head challenging out wide in the middle of the course and is only a pound worse off with that pair. He’s drawn near to the stand side this time and will need luck in running from there though should be thereabouts. The third that day, Clive Cox’s River Nymph won last year’s Victoria Cup on soft ground over course and distance and is now just 2lb higher. He must have the mud and has to be part of the staking plan under Adam Kirby. James Horton’s Asjad did us a favour at Doncaster on his favoured soft ground three weeks ago and a 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him taking a hand in the finish. Softening of the ground may not be in the favour of Blue For You whilst Safe Voyage will love and cut and has fallen to a very nice mark. River Nymph for me but a small ew saver on Asjad as well.

 

RIVER NYMPH 1 1/2 points each way 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

ASJAD 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

 

[ipswich45]

Le Longchamp Raiders

1223 (Group 2)
#2 Al Qareem   (R Moore / K Burke)
#6 Whileuweresleeping  (T Marquand / E O'Neill)

1258 (Arab Group 1)
#2 Monda  (J Crowley / X Thomas - Demeaulte)

1333 (Fillies Group 1)
#4 Sea La Rose (T Marquand / W Haggas)
#8 Emily Dickinson (R Moore / A O'Brien)
#9 Perotan (Y Take / A O'Brien)

1450 (Stakes)
#2 Denmark (R Moore / A O'Brien)

1525 (Group 1)
#3 Quickthorn (T Marquand / H Morrison)
#4 Tashkhan (B Robinson / B Ellison)
#7 Kyprios  (R Moore / A O'Brien)
#10 Princess Zoe (J Sheridan / A Mullins)
#11 Lismore (S Pasquier / H de Bromhead)

1600 (Group 2)
#2 Addeybb (T Marquand / W Haggas)
#3 Grocer Jack (R Moore / W Haggas)
#6 Anmaat (J Crowley / O Burrows)
#9 West Wind Blows (T Bachelot / S & E Crisford)

1635 (Group 2)
#2 Raadobarg (B Coen / JP Murtagh)
#6 Triple Time (K Stott / K Ryan)
#9 Checkandchallenge (M Guyon / W Knight)
#10 Glounthaune (R Moore / A O'Brien)