Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September

[The Brigadier]

The Curragh 1.35

A small but select field of seven go to post for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes to be run over a mile for two year olds. Aidan O’Brien has an exceptional record in the race and saddles Adelaide River and Continuous here. With Ryan Moore at Newmarket Wayne Lordan comes in for the ride on Adelaide River and looks the most likeliest winner. A winner on the all weather at Dundalk on his racecourse debut he stepped up from that effort when runner up at Longchamp a month later.

 

ADELAIDE RIVER 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Newmarket 1.50

A small field of only four go to post for the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes run over a mile and it’s impossible to oppose the warm favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick. He should win comfortably and it’s a no bet race for me.

 

Haydock 2.05

A one mile class 2 handicap is next and with the ground appearing to be on the slow side I’ll be looking for horses that enjoy getting their toe in. William Haggas’s Montassib won’t mind any cut in the ground and wasn’t given the best of rides I thought at the Shergar Cup. He’s worth a saver with my main bet being on the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell Stud owned Wanees. He looked a horse to follow when winning the Esher Cup at Sandown on his re-appearance back in April and wasn’t disgraced when 6th in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot 55 days later. He may not have stayed when upped to 10F at Goodwood when running too bad to be true and now gelded is worth another chance to prove his ability. He won on soft ground as a two year old and looks good each way value.

 

WANEES 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet 365 1/5th 1234

MONTASSIB 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365

 

Newmarket 2.25

The Cheveley Park Stakes is a Group one contest for two year old fillies and is run over 6F of the Rowley Mile course. Aidan O’Brien brings over Meditate who bumped into a smart one last time out but must have a big chance here. Her main danger is the Richard Hannon trained Flying Childers winner Trillium who’s chasing a four timer. They look the pair to concentrate on with slight preference for the Irish raider who will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

 

MEDITATE 2 points win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Haydock 2.40

A sixteen runner 5F sprint class 2 handicap which has as one would expect an open look about it. Equality ran well at Windsor last time when well backed and was possibly a tad unlucky not to win. He’s been raised 4lb for that effort but makes the short list here. Count D’Orsay bounced back to form on soft ground in the Portland Handicap last time when third beaten a length and a half by Chipstead and although he’s been shunted up 3lb for that effort is still on a winnable mark. Those two are my pair against the field and I’ll Dutch the pair just win only.

 

COUNT D’ORSAY 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365

EQUALITY 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 3.00

Next up is the Middle Park Stakes a Group 1 contest for two year old colts run over 6F. Aidan O’Brien’s Blackbeard sets the standard with an official rating of 115 which is 2lb superior to Karl Burke’s Marshman who was runner up in the Gimcrack to Godolphin’s Noble Style. Godolphin saddle their improving Mischief Magic who’s steadily progressed throughout the season and might be the value bet here under William Buick.

 

MISCHIEF MAGIC 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Curragh 3.20

The 7F Goffs Million is a sales race for two year olds with prize money of 1.2 million euros. Ger Lyons’ Hellsing looks the one to beat having already won two of his three starts here over 6F and a listed contest at Tipperary over 7 1/2F in August. He sets the standard with those efforts and it’s interesting that his sharp trainer stated after he won his maiden here in May that ‘he was bought with the Goffs Million in mind’, so has no doubt been trained with this race in mind. The best of the English visitors (there’s ten of them) may well be Edward Bethell’s Oviedo who was third beaten 3 3/4L to Chaldean in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor fixture.

 

HELLSING 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.40

A bumper field of 29 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Cambridgeshire handicap run over 9F of the Rowley Mile course. William Haggas saddles a brace of fancied runners in the favourite Mujtaba who impressed when winning here 17 days ago for which he carries a 4lb penalty but actually goes up 7lb in future handicaps so is 3lb well in. Any rain that falls will suit him. Protagonist is the other Haggas runner who arrives in decent form chasing a hat trick and also has claims. There are many others with chances including Roger Varian’s Kitsune Power who sports first time cheek pieces and Sean Woods’ Savvy Victory and it’s the latter that appeals to me most. His form ties in with Protaganist and with Ryan Moore on board he’s the selection here with a small saver on Kitsune Power.

 

SAVVY VICTORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

KITSUNE POWER 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456

 

[calva decoy]

Some stats for the last 5 runnings of The Cambridgeshire .

2021 the first 5 places saw horses drawn 21,22,19,4,14 fill those positions. 

2020 saw horses drawn 25,27,24,16 29 fill those positions .

2019 saw horses drawn 29,19, 32,28,20 fill those positions .

2018 saw horses drawn 21,29,26,3,22 fill those positions 

2017 saw horses drawn 29,22,13,10,33 fill those positions 

Gosden & Balding have had the most winners & placed in the above 5 year period .

If you fancy a horse drawn in single figure stall then good luck , stats above don't bode well .

I've gone for 3 all with Sky bet all each way paying 8 places .

MAGICAL MORNING 20/1 

INJAZATI 16/1 

ARQOOB 33/1 .