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Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September

The Brigadier

By The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
The Curragh 1.35
A small but select field of seven go to post for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes to be run over a mile for two year olds. Aidan O’Brien has an exceptional record in the race and saddles Adelaide River and Continuous here. With Ryan Moore at Newmarket Wayne Lordan comes in for the ride on Adelaide River and looks the most likeliest winner. A winner on the all weather at Dundalk on his racecourse debut he stepped up from that effort when runner up at Longchamp a month later.
 
ADELAIDE RIVER 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365
 
Newmarket 1.50
A small field of only four go to post for the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes run over a mile and it’s impossible to oppose the warm favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick. He should win comfortably and it’s a no bet race for me.
 
Haydock 2.05
A one mile class 2 handicap is next and with the ground appearing to be on the slow side I’ll be looking for horses that enjoy getting their toe in. William Haggas’s Montassib won’t mind any cut in the ground and wasn’t given the best of rides I thought at the Shergar Cup. He’s worth a saver with my main bet being on the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell Stud owned Wanees. He looked a horse to follow when winning the Esher Cup at Sandown on his re-appearance back in April and wasn’t disgraced when 6th in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot 55 days later. He may not have stayed when upped to 10F at Goodwood when running too bad to be true and now gelded is worth another chance to prove his ability. He won on soft ground as a two year old and looks good each way value.
 
WANEES 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet 365 1/5th 1234
MONTASSIB 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365
 
Newmarket 2.25
The Cheveley Park Stakes is a Group one contest for two year old fillies and is run over 6F of the Rowley Mile course. Aidan O’Brien brings over Meditate who bumped into a smart one last time out but must have a big chance here. Her main danger is the Richard Hannon trained Flying Childers winner Trillium who’s chasing a four timer. They look the pair to concentrate on with slight preference for the Irish raider who will be ridden by Ryan Moore.
 
MEDITATE 2 points win @ 9/4 BetVictor
 
Haydock 2.40
A sixteen runner 5F sprint class 2 handicap which has as one would expect an open look about it. Equality ran well at Windsor last time when well backed and was possibly a tad unlucky not to win. He’s been raised 4lb for that effort but makes the short list here. Count D’Orsay bounced back to form on soft ground in the Portland Handicap last time when third beaten a length and a half by Chipstead and although he’s been shunted up 3lb for that effort is still on a winnable mark. Those two are my pair against the field and I’ll Dutch the pair just win only.
 
COUNT D’ORSAY 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365
EQUALITY 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365
 
Newmarket 3.00
Next up is the Middle Park Stakes a Group 1 contest for two year old colts run over 6F. Aidan O’Brien’s Blackbeard sets the standard with an official rating of 115 which is 2lb superior to Karl Burke’s Marshman who was runner up in the Gimcrack to Godolphin’s Noble Style. Godolphin saddle their improving Mischief Magic who’s steadily progressed throughout the season and might be the value bet here under William Buick.
 
MISCHIEF MAGIC 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365
 
Curragh 3.20
The 7F Goffs Million is a sales race for two year olds with prize money of 1.2 million euros. Ger Lyons’ Hellsing looks the one to beat having already won two of his three starts here over 6F and a listed contest at Tipperary over 7 1/2F in August. He sets the standard with those efforts and it’s interesting that his sharp trainer stated after he won his maiden here in May that ‘he was bought with the Goffs Million in mind’, so has no doubt been trained with this race in mind. The best of the English visitors (there’s ten of them) may well be Edward Bethell’s Oviedo who was third beaten 3 3/4L to Chaldean in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor fixture.
 
HELLSING 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill
 
Newmarket 3.40
A bumper field of 29 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Cambridgeshire handicap run over 9F of the Rowley Mile course. William Haggas saddles a brace of fancied runners in the favourite Mujtaba who impressed when winning here 17 days ago for which he carries a 4lb penalty but actually goes up 7lb in future handicaps so is 3lb well in. Any rain that falls will suit him. Protagonist is the other Haggas runner who arrives in decent form chasing a hat trick and also has claims. There are many others with chances including Roger Varian’s Kitsune Power who sports first time cheek pieces and Sean Woods’ Savvy Victory and it’s the latter that appeals to me most. His form ties in with Protaganist and with Ryan Moore on board he’s the selection here with a small saver on Kitsune Power.
 
SAVVY VICTORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
KITSUNE POWER 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456
 
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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted

Some stats for the last 5 runnings of The Cambridgeshire .

2021 the first 5 places saw horses drawn 21,22,19,4,14 fill those positions. 

2020 saw horses drawn 25,27,24,16 29 fill those positions .

2019 saw horses drawn 29,19, 32,28,20 fill those positions .

2018 saw horses drawn 21,29,26,3,22 fill those positions 

2017 saw horses drawn 29,22,13,10,33 fill those positions 

Gosden & Balding have had the most winners & placed in the above 5 year period .

If you fancy a horse drawn in single figure stall then good luck , stats above don't bode well .

I've gone for 3 all with Sky bet all each way paying 8 places .

MAGICAL MORNING 20/1 

INJAZATI 16/1 

ARQOOB 33/1 .

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

Cambridgeshire 

Savvy victory  9.0  9/1 

Protagonist    8.8  8/1 

Lucander    8.4 22/1 

Dual identity  8.2 

Ouzo      8.0 

Arqoob    8.0 

I'll try 10pt ew top 2 8 places .....ouzo and arqoob are lovely outsiders atx33 and 40/1 ...Great race ?

 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bell Rock    3 40 New/      1/20 th  of a  pt e w   20/1        =   2nd

Nordic Empire  2 40 Hay/  1/10 th  of a pt  win   11/1         =  3 rd

Cold Stare      3 15  Hay/    1/20  th  of a pt  ew   20/1       =  u/p

Craig Gorm     6 33 Che/   1/20 th of a pt win    18/1         =  n/r

Ouzo    3 40  New/      1/20 th pt  ew     38/1    { punted him few weeks ago on site was little unlucky then }   = 6th  extra places 

 

 

 

 

 

extra places on offer in  some of above

P/L    + 159 PTS

Edited by black rabbit
results
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

yeah ted ive had a bulls eye e w   he was 3rd  in the 2020 cambershire  off a 103 mark/

goes off 99 tomorrow + 5 LB  claimer + he's been working very well at home/ 

I only have a cock & hen on it ew but also have it in a  50 kilkenny e/w lucky 15.

(Only in punters lounge would you find a northern irishman & southern irishman talking cockney, have it!)

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted (edited)

2.05 Hay- Its been a long time between drinks for YOUNG FIRE but O'meara will get another win out of it i'm sure the horse  is on a very low mark now likes this track so for me 16/1 bog  is deffo an e/w play 4places

2.40  Hay-STONE OF DESTINY must surely pick up a race very soon off current mark 16/1 5places  bog will do for me.

3.15  Hay- Again a horse on a  very good mark is my choice COLD STARE 20/1 bog Tudhope & O'meara could have a very good day not a great fan of the Jockey if i'm honest!

3.40 NM- BELL ROCK 16/1 bog 7places looks great e/w bet  rather back this horse who was 2nd to the current fav lto than it. Decent looking draw so all looks in  place for a big run.

E/w Lucky 15 on these 4 plus i will have a small e/w on former winner MAJESTIC DAWN  33/1 7 places bog do good to miss at that price.

Best of luck all

Edited by Tedthewolf
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted

The Curragh1.05

New image win.

Get Lyons runner looked like he'd appreciate much further on debut chasing home age of kings. If improvement is forthcoming can take this.

Listowel 4.18

Falco Blitz.

 

 

Ex Nicky Henderson runner makes debut for new Irish yard.

Top weight and last seen pulling up at Newton Abbott for the second race in succession. Previously a good winner of a decent race at Kempton. Down to that mark here and dangerous to assume new trainer doesn't have him spot on again after a decent break.

 

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Trends for the Cambridgeshire (Newmarket 3.40)

As @calva decoyhas already noted, the draw appears key.

Drawn 20 to 28, 6 from 66, AE 2.45. The remaining draws have a record of 2 from from 180 !

Bred in Ireland, 6 from 131, AE 1.35

This leaves 6, AUSTRIAN THEORY, FOREST FALCON, MAJESTIC, LUCANDER, JIMI HENDRIX and ARQOOB

In the bottom 9 of the weights, 1 from 97. This removes MAJESTIC

Top 5 in the weights, 0 from 36, This removes FOREST FALCON

Top 4 in the betting, 4 from 38, AE 1.38

This leaves JIMI HENDRIX at 9/1, 7 places

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

Probably spent too much but here goes:

3.30 M/R De Barley Basket 2/1 (up 9lbs?)

3.48 Rip Justanotherbottle 11/4 (my nap; hoping this will beat Marks Choice the other course specialist)

4.05 M/R Kihavah 6/1

0.5 win Trixie = 2.00 poss return 68.61

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.05 Hd Akhu Najla 7/2 @Alastair

3.00 Nm Blackbeard 7/2 @richard-westwood

4.15 Nm Mubhijah 5/2

0.5 win Trixie = 2.00 poss return of 61.29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Singles:

3.00 Nm Persian Force 1 pt win at 7.4 @richard-westwood2nd rated

3.40 Nm 6 bets 0.25 ew apart from Savvy = 0.35 ew.  Savvy 13/2, Bell Rock 14/1, Arqoob 18/1, Injazzati 14/1, Ouzo 28/1 and Lucander 22/1 = 3.20 pts for fun

2.05 Hd Montassib 1 pt win at 6.0

2.40 Hd Count D'orsay 1 pt win at 5.6 @The Brigadier

3.15 Hd Baba Reza 0.33 ew at 17/2, Gisburn 0.34 ew at 9/1 both @richard-westwoodand Cold stare 0.33 ew at 14/1 @black rabbitagain for fun = 2 pts

2.50 Ches Coco Jack 1 pt win at 9.72

3.25 Call My Bluff 1 pt win at 808 (Big 3 tips this so will probably fail miserably)

14.20 Total stakes so far

Be Lucky

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Very frustrating day with 3 seconds.

I will have 2 pts to win on Kihava in the 4.05 at Mkt Ras at 6.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well I should have guessed that Kihavah would also finish second.  Including my multiples I had 6 seconds and was done for a double with Mubhija getting beat a neck.  A very frustrating day.  At least I got my money back on the big race with a return of 3.41 pts, Ouzo 7th paying 1.65 for 7th place at 28/1.  The loss today was 11.83 pts which makes my MTD +72.64 and YTD -223.93

One class 2 race at Ffos Las tomorrow and mainly class 4 racing at Epsom and just one class 4 race at Yarmouth so not an abundance of opportunities.

I hope that some members made a profit today

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 8:39 AM, The Brigadier said:
The Curragh 1.35
A small but select field of seven go to post for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes to be run over a mile for two year olds. Aidan O’Brien has an exceptional record in the race and saddles Adelaide River and Continuous here. With Ryan Moore at Newmarket Wayne Lordan comes in for the ride on Adelaide River and looks the most likeliest winner. A winner on the all weather at Dundalk on his racecourse debut he stepped up from that effort when runner up at Longchamp a month later.
 
ADELAIDE RIVER 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365
 
Newmarket 1.50
A small field of only four go to post for the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes run over a mile and it’s impossible to oppose the warm favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick. He should win comfortably and it’s a no bet race for me.
 
Haydock 2.05
A one mile class 2 handicap is next and with the ground appearing to be on the slow side I’ll be looking for horses that enjoy getting their toe in. William Haggas’s Montassib won’t mind any cut in the ground and wasn’t given the best of rides I thought at the Shergar Cup. He’s worth a saver with my main bet being on the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell Stud owned Wanees. He looked a horse to follow when winning the Esher Cup at Sandown on his re-appearance back in April and wasn’t disgraced when 6th in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot 55 days later. He may not have stayed when upped to 10F at Goodwood when running too bad to be true and now gelded is worth another chance to prove his ability. He won on soft ground as a two year old and looks good each way value.
 
WANEES 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet 365 1/5th 1234
MONTASSIB 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365
 
Newmarket 2.25
The Cheveley Park Stakes is a Group one contest for two year old fillies and is run over 6F of the Rowley Mile course. Aidan O’Brien brings over Meditate who bumped into a smart one last time out but must have a big chance here. Her main danger is the Richard Hannon trained Flying Childers winner Trillium who’s chasing a four timer. They look the pair to concentrate on with slight preference for the Irish raider who will be ridden by Ryan Moore.
 
MEDITATE 2 points win @ 9/4 BetVictor
 
Haydock 2.40
A sixteen runner 5F sprint class 2 handicap which has as one would expect an open look about it. Equality ran well at Windsor last time when well backed and was possibly a tad unlucky not to win. He’s been raised 4lb for that effort but makes the short list here. Count D’Orsay bounced back to form on soft ground in the Portland Handicap last time when third beaten a length and a half by Chipstead and although he’s been shunted up 3lb for that effort is still on a winnable mark. Those two are my pair against the field and I’ll Dutch the pair just win only.
 
COUNT D’ORSAY 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365
EQUALITY 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365
 
Newmarket 3.00
Next up is the Middle Park Stakes a Group 1 contest for two year old colts run over 6F. Aidan O’Brien’s Blackbeard sets the standard with an official rating of 115 which is 2lb superior to Karl Burke’s Marshman who was runner up in the Gimcrack to Godolphin’s Noble Style. Godolphin saddle their improving Mischief Magic who’s steadily progressed throughout the season and might be the value bet here under William Buick.
 
MISCHIEF MAGIC 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365
 
Curragh 3.20
The 7F Goffs Million is a sales race for two year olds with prize money of 1.2 million euros. Ger Lyons’ Hellsing looks the one to beat having already won two of his three starts here over 6F and a listed contest at Tipperary over 7 1/2F in August. He sets the standard with those efforts and it’s interesting that his sharp trainer stated after he won his maiden here in May that ‘he was bought with the Goffs Million in mind’, so has no doubt been trained with this race in mind. The best of the English visitors (there’s ten of them) may well be Edward Bethell’s Oviedo who was third beaten 3 3/4L to Chaldean in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor fixture.
 
HELLSING 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill
 
Newmarket 3.40
A bumper field of 29 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Cambridgeshire handicap run over 9F of the Rowley Mile course. William Haggas saddles a brace of fancied runners in the favourite Mujtaba who impressed when winning here 17 days ago for which he carries a 4lb penalty but actually goes up 7lb in future handicaps so is 3lb well in. Any rain that falls will suit him. Protagonist is the other Haggas runner who arrives in decent form chasing a hat trick and also has claims. There are many others with chances including Roger Varian’s Kitsune Power who sports first time cheek pieces and Sean Woods’ Savvy Victory and it’s the latter that appeals to me most. His form ties in with Protaganist and with Ryan Moore on board he’s the selection here with a small saver on Kitsune Power.
 
SAVVY VICTORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
KITSUNE POWER 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456
 

A decent day with two nice winners at 14/1 (10p R4) and 17/2 (BOG) for a profit of 15.42 points. Hope everyone’s found a winner or two today.

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 12:47 PM, black rabbit said:

Bell Rock    3 40 New/      1/20 th  of a  pt e w   20/1        =   2nd

Nordic Empire  2 40 Hay/  1/10 th  of a pt  win   11/1         =  3 rd

Cold Stare      3 15  Hay/    1/20  th  of a pt  ew   20/1       =  u/p

Craig Gorm     6 33 Che/   1/20 th of a pt win    18/1         =  n/r

Ouzo    3 40  New/      1/20 th pt  ew     38/1    { punted him few weeks ago on site was little unlucky then }   = 6th  extra places 

 

 

 

 

 

extra places on offer in  some of above

P/L    + 159 PTS

bell rock ran a fine race ted ?

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 11:00 AM, calva decoy said:

Some stats for the last 5 runnings of The Cambridgeshire .

2021 the first 5 places saw horses drawn 21,22,19,4,14 fill those positions. 

2020 saw horses drawn 25,27,24,16 29 fill those positions .

2019 saw horses drawn 29,19, 32,28,20 fill those positions .

2018 saw horses drawn 21,29,26,3,22 fill those positions 

2017 saw horses drawn 29,22,13,10,33 fill those positions 

Gosden & Balding have had the most winners & placed in the above 5 year period .

If you fancy a horse drawn in single figure stall then good luck , stats above don't bode well .

I've gone for 3 all with Sky bet all each way paying 8 places .

MAGICAL MORNING 20/1 

INJAZATI 16/1 

ARQOOB 33/1 .

Zilch ?

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