Non-League Predictions > 20th August

[Darran]

Some of these prices have gone, but as always a min price is given for a guide as what to take.

Barnet v Woking

Not sure many people would have had Dean Brennan's Barnet as toping the table after 3 games, but that is where they are after wins against Bromley and Yeovil and a draw at Gateshead in between the two victories. However, when we look at the stats, I think they are over achieving at the moment. Halifax were awful against them in the opening day of the season only having an xG of 0.13 although Barnet's was just 0.81 albeit they scored twice. They have actually score twice in all 3 games so far and against Gateshead they had their highest xG of the season with 1.34, but they only had 5 shots during the game and Gateshead managed a higher xG. Then against Yeovil on Tuesday night they only had an xG of 0.88 and had just 7 shots. They have the finishing of Nicke Kabamba to thank as he scored both goals and his chip over the keeper for his 2nd was sublime. Yeovil really should have beaten them though as their xG was 1.72 and they created some really good chances. Clearly Barnet have been very clinical so far, but that won't last and I think Woking have got a huge chance of beating them here. I was confident they would beat Scunthorpe on Tuesday and they easily won 2-0. They had a massive 22 shots during the game and had an xG of 1.9. Kyran Lofthouse got both goals and his finish for the 2nd was great from a narrow angle. The one sight concern is that they were so bad in their opening game of the season at York and this is their first away game since, but it would be harsh to judge from a sample of one especially as it was the first game of the campaign. Woking have already been really well backed and you could have got as big as 5/2 which in all honestly would have been a max bet for me. The value isn't as big now so the stakes will not be as big, but I still make them a bet.

 

Dorking v Gateshead

3 games for Dorking and every game has not only been over 2.5 goals, but they have been over 3.5 goals! It was 4 in the opening game against Chesterfield and then 5 on the TV last Saturday against Oldham. On Tuesday night they made it 6 goals in a 4-2 victory over Maidstone. Not surprisingly we saw two big xG's with them having 2.81 and 2.82 from 19 and 22 shots respectively. If they want to follow the pattern then this game should have 7 goals on Saturday although I will settle for their just being over 2.5 goals again. I have mentioned on Twitter how I think we will see plenty of goals in Dorking games this season because of the way Marc White sets up the team. He has them as being very attacking and that means they will score goals, but it also leaves them short at the back as we have seen and Gateshead are more than capable of exploiting that Gateshead did really well to get a point against Notts County on Tuesday night and not surprisingly they weren't as attacking as they had been in their other two games against Barnet and Dagenham & Redbridge which both ended in 2-2 draws. I'm not sure I have ever put up an over 2.5 goals as it just isn't something I usually focus on, but here we have two teams capable of goals, but also capable of conceding goals if this game doesn't have over 2.5 goals we will have been very unfortunate. Also, crucially I don't think the bookies have caught up yet with how many goals we will see in Dorking games this season so I am happy to back over 2.5 goals here.

 

Notts County v Chesterfield

This is the live game on Saturday tea-time and it should be a cracker given we have two sides who ought to be in the play-offs at the very least come April. County have dominated possession in all 3 games they have played so far having recorded 74%. 75% and 69%. The problem is that possession hasn't been turned into victories and actually their lowest xG has come in their one victory so far against Maidenhead. Macaulay Langstaff scored two good goals against Maidenhead, but he hasn't looked quite as threatening in the other two games and I do wonder if he is going to be the main striker that they are looking for. Chesterfield didn't need Tshimanga on Tuesday night as he stayed on the bench, but they didn't need to risk him given they had a very comfortable 2-0 victory over Wrexham. I will talk more about how bad Wrexham were in the preview on their game, but Chesterfield had little problem in beating them recording a huge 21 shots for an xG of 1.76. Last season I thought Paul Cook looked clueless when he came in as Chesterfield manager, but the evidence on the first 3 games of the season is that he has learnt from last season and I might have got him wrong. I think this game is much closer than has been priced up so I am happy to back Chesterfield here.

 

Torquay v Boreham Wood

I'm really surprised by how bad Torquay have been so far this season. I really like Gary Johnson as a manager at this level as you probably know. Granted they lost some key players over the summer, but I trusted Johnson to get the right players in. The evidence so far is that apart from the goalkeeper Mark Halstead he looks to have a pretty weak team. Halstead's xCG is 5.48 so far this season and yet he has conceded just 1 goal. That goal came against Bromley on Tuesday night and it was a wonder strike which no keeper would have saved. The problem is he isn't always going to save them and the xG's against them really does tell a story. Against Oldham it was 1.81, against Halifax it was 3.31 and Bromley even topped that at a huge 4.46! Torquay's xG's have been 0.84, 0.33 and 0.36. The fact they beat Halifax last Saturday will be one of the most fortunate victories we will see this season as Halifax dominated them. I put Boreham Wood up to beat Aldershot on Tuesday and was very surprised they lost to them 2-1, but they will consider themselves unlucky as Aldershot's xG was only 0.79 and they only had 3 shots on target. Wood's xG was 1.83 and they had 19 shots. For me they are a better side than Torquay and the odds don't reflect that at all. Obviously, I am worried about Halstead's form, but there is no way Wood should be such a big price for this game and hopefully they can find the breakthrough.

 

Wealdstone v Halifax

It's been a very mixed back from Wealdstone this season as they have been really good twice when beating Bromley and Oldham, but they were awful when losing 1-0 in between to Eastleigh. An xG in that game of 0.03 tells you all you need to know about how well they played. The were good on the opening day of the season though winning 3-2 and then they did really well to win at Oldham on Tuesday night. The move for the 2nd goal could well end up as the best team goal we see all season in the National League. There was a huge 23 passes leading up to the goal and it is very unusual to see that sort of thing at this level even from the sides who like to pass the ball around. I thought they made some decent signings in the summer and they certainly have their strongest looking squad since getting promoted. Halifax obviously had that really high xG against Torquay, but I have a feeling that is more down to how bad Torquay are rather than how good Halifax are. They created very little against Barnet on the opening day and then on Tuesday night their main chance came from the Southend keeper giving the ball away so it wasn't even something they created. It was a game were both teams seemed to cancel each other out as there was little goalmouth action with Southend's only decent chance coming from the penalty spot. Halifax are strong favourites for the game and I just don't think they should be and these two sides are much closer ability wise than the betting suggests

 

Wrexham v Maidstone

Phil Parkinson is under huge pressure now and I think if Wrexham don't win this game then he might well be sacked. After Tuesday night's effort against Chesterfield the fans on Twitter were pretty unanimous about wanting him out and I totally agree with them. Based on their 3 performances so far this season it is clear to me that they won't win the league whilst he is still in charge. I even think he might have lost the dressing room given how poor they were against Yeovil and Chesterfield. Yeovil you could possibly forgive a little given how hot it was, but the effort on Tuesday was unforgivable given you are playing against one of your possible title rivals. They managed 7 shots, but all bar two of those were blocked and their xG was just 0.2! This is coming from a team who have Paul Mullin and Ollie Palmer in their side. They are clearly very short for this game and in truth they should win it given how superior their side is, but if it doesn't start going their way then the fans are going to get on the players backs quickly and the pressure will be huge. Maidstone lost out in that high scoring game with Dorking on Tuesday night, but that could have gone either way and they did well in their first two games against York and Altrincham. Clearly this is a very different contest to those 3 matches and in theory they should lose, but I think at a huge price they are worth chancing to pile more misery on Parkinson and Wrexham.

 

Woking 3pts @ 31/20 with Bet365 (8/5 with William Hill and take up to 11/10)

Dorking v Gateshead over 2.5 goals 4pts @ 17/20 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 4/7)

Chesterfield 1pt @ 21/10 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/4)

Boreham Wood 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes (Betfred are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

Wealdstone 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfred and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

Maidstone 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (9/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes take up to 5/1)

 

Cheshunt v St Albans (National League South)

St Albans have done very little in 3 games so far and have not created much at all. Cheshunt haven't started life at this level too badly at all including beating Hampton. They look way over priced here.

 

Hungerford v Eastbourne (National League South)

Just 2 goals in Hungerford games so far as they have had two 1-0 defeats and a 0-0 draw. Eastbourne meanwhile have seen plenty of goals in their games having scored 8 of them themselves. They did concede 4 against Bath and 3 against Ebbsfleet on Tuesday night, but given Hungerford haven't scored at all yet you get the feeling 1 goal might just be enough. They certainly look a better side than their hosts and happy to back them.

 

Peterborough Sports v Chester (National League North)

I would make the home side favourites for this. They did deserve to lose to Gloucester on Tuesday, but as their manager said after the game their players had to go straight from work and Peterborough to Gloucester is not a quick journey. They still did fairly well though and they were especially impressive against Southport last Saturday. I'm not sure Chester are that great this season and I'm happy to take them on here.

 

Bowers & Pitsea v Herne Bay (Isthmian League)

Bowers look a very poor side this season and they have lost both games so far. Herne had to play on Sunday and Tuesday. They lost to Potters Bar 1-0 but had an outfield player in goal for the last half hour or so. For them to then go and win 4-2 against Haringey just a couple of days later was a hell of an effort and odds against looks well worth taking.

 

Potters Bar v Billericay (Isthmian League)

Speaking of Potters Bar they are value to win this game. After that win they only lost 1-0 to Bishops Stortford which given they are one of my bets for the title was a good effort just a couple of days after their opening game. They look way over priced against a Billericay side who lost to league newcomers Aveley on Tuesday having beaten Cray on the opening day.

 

Cheshunt 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 7/4)

Eastbourne 2pts @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (13/10 with Hills and take up to 10/11)

Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 7/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (9/5 with Hills and take up to 6/4)

Herne Bay 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 10/11)

Potters Bar 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1)

[ipswich45]

9 hours ago, Darran said:

Peterborough Sports v Chester (National League North)

I would make the home side favourites for this. They did deserve to lose to Gloucester on Tuesday, but as their manager said after the game their players had to go straight from work and Peterborough to Gloucester is not a quick journey. They still did fairly well though and they were especially impressive against Southport last Saturday. I'm not sure Chester are that great this season and I'm happy to take them on here.

 

thanks for giving us the kiss of death there Darran ? 

As a steward for Sports i dont think anyone at the club could have wrote the start we have had having drawn first game of the season at home against buxton and with us having to play 43 mins with 10 men then as you say beating Southport,  Today will be an interesting game our first time having to segregate supporters (its not compulsory for all games just `high profile' ones  -  i would happily take a point today however

on a side note its nice to see the side who came up with us from the Southern League Central Banbury doing fantastic and shows both sides are not there just to make the numbers up 

Sports coming up play Kidderminster (A) and Kings Lynn (H) after today

[bromsgrovegreen]

Went to Bromsgrove  v Alvechurch  on Tuesday night, it was a cracking game in monsoon conditions with Bromsgrove winning 3-1... They rode their luck early doors as Alvechurch could have been two or three up early doors but after that Bromsgrove played really well. Alvechurch  are a decent side despite two back to back defeats and I fancy them at evens to beat a struggling Rushden side today at Lye Meadow.

 

[monty63]

please Darren where do you think Barnet will finish this season as my father-in-law support them see the unbeaten so far 

king regard

monty63 

[Darran]

7 hours ago, monty63 said:

please Darren where do you think Barnet will finish this season as my father-in-law support them see the unbeaten so far 

king regard

monty63 

As mentioned in the preview they have been massively over performing compared to their xG and that happened again on Saturday where they only had 4 shots with the 2 goals being their only shots on target. Obviously they are being clinical, but that is going to be impossible to carry on and unless they can start creating more chances they should drop down the table. I think they will be mid-table come April.