ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL

[MCLARKE]

There have been a number of comments about never backing odds on horses. I am going to start a trial on these horses.

The basic premise is that these selections should have an edge because :-

1. The favourite-longshot bias. This is an observed phenomenon where bettors tens to overvalue longshots and undervalue favourites.

2. There is a tendency for some bettors to specifically not bet on odds on selections. If a horse is 11/10 they will have a bet but at 10/11 they will not. The bookmakers will be aware of this and therefore they will lengthen the odds on selections and shorten the odds against.

I will pick 1 horse a day where it is forecast odds on and the first show on BET365 at 5pm is odds on. If there is more than 1 selection I will take the one with the lowest forecast odds.

I will post the selection as my nap in the naps competition to avoid having too many threads in At The Races.

I will also keep a record of the price movements to attempt to identify the best time to back these selections.

I will update this thread once a week.

The 1st selections is Bresson in the 2.10 at Yarmouth tomorrow. Forecast odds are 2/11. Opening price at 5.01 on BET365 was 4/9. Interestingly this has already shortened to 2/9.

 

[MCLARKE]

I have purposefully excluded any form study at all in this exercise to try to prove that odds on selections are viable in their own right.

I am sure that any returns can be improved by adding additional criteria.

These include (for flat racing) :-

Exclude the top 3 in the weights. This increases returns by 9%

Irish bred 5%

1st or 2nd last time 3%

More than 6 runners 4%

Not drawn in top 3 3%

Good to Firm or Firm going 4%

Last ran more than 30 days ago 5%

Last ran less than 13 days ago 7%

Exclude 5/6 furlong races 2%

Forecast odds less than 4/5 2%

Male horses 2%