Skybet Ebor - York 20th August

[The Brigadier]

We’re a month away from one of the biggest betting handicaps of the flat season in the Sky Bet Ebor at York and with some quiet racing this week I thought it would be a good idea to have a thorough look at the race with the weights out now.

The Ebor has some fond memories for me and is one of my favourite punting races of the entire season. I was working as a settler at Ladbrokes head office in Harrow as a twenty year old back in 1983 when the owner of a certain Jupiter Island, Mr Stan Threadwell phoned to enquire about a price about his improving three year old for the forthcoming Ebor. He took the 50/1 offered and then told the telephonist that a certain Lester Piggott would ride! The local William Hill betting shop (remember this is pre internet - showing my age here!) was a sight at lunchtime with everyone from Ladbrokes head office from the settlers to the managers queuing to have their bet at 50/1 with them. Piggott was duly booked and he did the business before going on to prove how well handicapped he was by winning the Japan Cup three years later for trainer Clive Brittain. Happy memories!

 

Then there was the time I backed Guy Harwood’s winner Primary at 16/1 an improving three year old owned by Khalid Abdullah at a nice price but was away during August on a lads holiday in Rhodes and didn’t get the result till two days later again pre internet days with no mobile phones with the only way to obtain the result was to wait till the day after the result to pick up the daily English newspaper. He duly obliged under Grenville Starkey at 6/1. How times have changed.

 

Anyway enough of my ramble down memory lane and let’s look at next month’s handicap run over just short of fourteen furlongs and a much classier event then it ever was with the prize money topping half a million pounds.

 

A maximum of twenty two can run and looking at the last ten runnings the lowest rated horse to get a run has been (2021 first) 101, 97, 105, 102, 101, 98, 99, 98, 93, 96. You can see from those figures that from the last five years any horse rated under 100 is unlikely to get a run and for that reason alone I’m dismissing all those horses rated 98 or lower.

 

The last three year old to win the race was Aiden O’Brien’s Mediterranean back in 2001 and it’s extremely difficult for a three year old to actually make it into the final field nowadays with the only one to have made the cut in the last ten years being O’Briens Fields Of Athenry who was rated 115 in 2015 finishing 5th.

 

Eighty one have been left in at the latest declaration stage but as mentioned earlier I’m dismissing all those from number 52 (Not So Sleepy) downwards making it a slightly more manageable task.

 

Brian Ellison’s Tashkan heads the weights off of 10-3 and that looks a formidable task and is hard to fancy especially as he’s one that needs to get his toe in and with the last ten years going reading (2021 first) good, soft, good to firm, good to firm, good, good, good, good, soft, good to soft it’s hard to predict what the ground is likely to be come the 20th August especially with the unpredictable Summer we’re having.

 

Current ante-post favourite is the Irish trained Earl Of Tyrone who’s chasing a four timer for excellent trainer Paddy Twomey. He’s risen 24lb for those wins. He’s rapidly improving and a very interesting runner. If you like him though you have to give Joseph O’Brien’s Raise You a chance as he followed up a Curragh listed victory by chasing Earl Of Tyrone home in a listed contest at Limerick where he was slowly away and couldn’t get a run inside the final furlong and a half looking to my eyes to be unlucky. He’s 4lb worse off here but shouldn’t be three times the price in my opinion. Joseph O’Brien does have five others in the race mind so it’s hard to be sure if he is an intended runner. Of those from the O’Brien stable that should get into the race if they want to are Baron Samedi who’s probably not good enough whilst Okita Soushi flopped last time having been given far too much to do in what looked a very suspicious race at Leopardstown but had previously ran a blinder behind Get Shirty at Ascot and is better off at the weights here. Cleveland who has left his father’s stable to join Joseph’s having looked good when winning the Chester Cup prior to a second to Get Shirty (beaten 1 1/4L) in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot (4lb better of now). I believe that he’s been aimed at the Melbourne Cup so am not sure how this race would fit into his campaign.

Okita Soushi may be the value of the Joseph O’Brien team.

 

William Haggas has three entered and as a dyed in the wool Yorkshireman would love to win this big prize for the first time. He has Hamish entered who hasn’t been seen since winning the group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May and is unbeaten in two starts at the track including the 3 year old ‘Ebor’ the Melrose Handicap three years ago. He was favourite last year until been withdrawn on the morning due to the drying ground. With 10-1 to carry and the same scenario regarding the ground a possibility he’s hard to put forward at this stage though if conditions were to suit he would be a player no doubt. Candleford is another Haggas entry who blitzed his opposition first time out this season at Royal Ascot though was a tad disappointing having gone up 13lb at Newmarket on his first try at this trip. Haggas’s third and most interesting runner for me is the Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum runner Gaassee who looked a pattern performer in the making when winning at York first time out this season and didn’t get the clearest of runs when third in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock on soft ground when a well backed favourite. He’s lightly raced having won four of his six starts and should appreciate stepping up a couple of furlongs here and has to be on the short list.

 

Andrew Balding has six entered although only four have realistic chances of making the race. Moranda is a big price and rightly so the way he’s running (he needs it bottomless), Spirit Mixer has improved plenty this season but may have found the ceiling of his handicap mark now off of 100. Alounak ran third last year at 33/1 and is 5lb lower now so has each way claims at a similarly big price but hasn’t beaten a horse on his last two outings so is hard to fancy that much. The best chance Balding has of taking this contest is with Coltrane who looks an upwardly mobile stayer who has won his last two starts, his latest coming at Sandown in the listed Coral Marathon by ten lengths. He’s been pushed up 7lb for that run and will have to carry 9.13 if running here. He’s due to run in the Goodwood Cup next week and also holds an engagement in the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting so he certainly can’t be called a definite runner at present.

 

Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn was runner up in this last year and appears to have improved further this season winning a group 3 and group 2. He’s 8lb higher now than when 2nd last year and would be a definite player if taking this route (he’s also entered in the Lonsdale Stakes at the meeting) although he loves some cut in the ground so is worth waiting with him.

 

One horse who’s trainer has stated that this is his target is the David O’Meara trained Get Shirty. He’s had a great season winning four of his five starts rising 19lb on ground varying from good to firm to soft and looks to hold a good chance as along as the handicapper hasn’t got hold him yet. Daniel Tudhope will no doubt ride and with no doubts over the ground looks the value.

 

Ralph Beckett’s Max Vega was 5th last year and is 3lb higher now. He’s been in good form in two starts this season and has each way claims though he couldn’t win last year off of a lower mark.

 

Jessie Harrington has an interesting entry in Ever Present who is down to run in a listed race at Down Royal on Friday night. He hasn’t been seen since winning a valuable Leopardstown handicap last September but is lightly raced. He will however pick up a 4lb penalty if winning on Friday. Keep an eye on the Ger Lyons trained Licence in this race as he’s also entered and were he to win (or run well) could come into the equation as a lightly raced Juddmonte four year old.

 

Summary :-

It’s hard to be sure who is going to run here and is most definitely a race I will be coming back to when running plans are announced but at present I think it’s small each way bets on David O’Meara’s Get Shirty who’s been one of the handicap success’s of the season winning decent handicaps at Royal Ascot and Haydock, goes on any ground and is a planned runner according to his trainer and the Joseph O’Brien trained Okita Soushi who can be forgiven his latest run as he was left too far out of his depth and on previous Ascot form ties in with Get Shirty. I can’t see either being any bigger than the current top price of 16/1. That’s only with firms paying 4 places (both Skybet and Betfred are 5 places already but they are only 12/1) and are worth a small each way wagers now. I would also have Gaassee on my short list along with Quickthorn (if running).

 

GET SHIRTY 1 point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power/ William Hills 1/4 1234.

OKITA SOUSHI 1 point each way @ 18/1 888sport 1/4 1234

[Zilzalian]

Down memory lane. when i first joined this site the first comments i submitted was "thoughts on the ebor anyone, i have been backing one for months."

BillyHills (Rest his soul) in his usual  sarcastic way (which i liked) replied. tell us which one then (before it runs preferably) or are you fishing?

My response-Trueshan I have backed it at 33/1 16/1 14/1 12/1 the only danger I see is Withhold. As for fishing I like fishing but I always find my own GG's. A wise old geyser once said to a young lad if you can't pick your own horse your betting on the wrong sport.

So Ebor arrives and i have splashed out the best part of 400 quid over 8 months and Marquand gave it a shocker, Holly on Trueshan then beat that ebor winner and stradavarious by a country mile at 20/1 on champions day of which i only had 50 quid on but cant really complain. The rest as they say is history, yes people will point to the different ground conditions but it is my belief that if a horse can win on the AW carrying 10-00+ then it should handle good or gf ground.

A little amusement- Went to an Ebor once and argued all the way there with my mate that my horse would murder his. mmm well his fell and brought mine down, i still shake my head in disbelief  at that one to this day. ?

Forgot to add ? The race in which Enemy (9-0) came 5th in in Dubai, i just cant get out of my mind (highlighted in NOTEBOOK HORSES) Manobo (8-9) won it in an incredible time for a 1m 6f race, Enemy unfancied at 66/1 was flying in the last 2 furlongs so for the Ebor this year its Ian Williams french import Enemy for me. 25/1 is a great price.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Zilzalian
update