Women’s Euro 2022

[harry_rag]

And a couple of players in the other game. Ilestedt at 10/1 for Sweden and Nazareth at 12/1 for Portugal.

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

And a couple of players in the other game. Ilestedt at 10/1 for Sweden and Nazareth at 12/1 for Portugal.

A frustrating day yesterday with Spreadex crediting Sweden's 3rd goal to Ilestedt as a header but everyone else calling it an own goal. Then a Blackstenius headed goal was overturned by VAR. In the other game, Holland's first goal was a headed attempt (apparently on target) headed in by a defender and given as an own goal. I suspect that wouldn't have been classed as a "headed goal" but, fortunately, they did go on to score a clear and indisputable header so at least one bet landed.

It was a timely reminder that, in terms of the spreads, SX do include headed own goals but SPIN don't, so better to buy with SX and sell with SPIN if playing that market. Both firms are 38 to buy in the France game but SPIN are 28 in the Italy game and SX are 31. I wouldn't pay an extra 3 points for the remote chance of a headed OG!

I'm on the fixed odds option in each game once again, 11/8 and 13/8 respectively.

[harry_rag]

France v Iceland: France have the group won and have made changes, Iceland can qualify with an unlikely win which they will surely go for. I think France will win, no surprise if Iceland nick one. Renard at 10/3 worth another go, Diani 9/4 looks decent and is my first anytime system bet for a while. Both with Sky Bet.

Italy v Belgium: We should be able to anticipate a competitive game here with both teams assuming a win will take them through unless Iceland can beat France. Nothing I've seen suggests Italy deserve to be as favoured as they are by the markets. Italy are the 8th best European team according to the rankings with Belgium 11th and Iceland in between them as 10th. I'd say any result is possible here and have taken Belgium to win at 4.5 as (hopefully) the value play. Vanhaevermaert 8/1 anytime Uni the only scorer bet that appeals.

Given how the tie is balanced the possibility of cards rears its so far loss making head. The ref showed 6 yellows when Holland played Portugal though doesn't stand out on her general stats. One price caught my eye for an interest, Hills going 5/1 for each team being shown 2+ cards (quite a bit shorter elsewhere).

[harry_rag]

On 7/6/2022 at 5:30 PM, Torque said:

I'm going Germany and Sweden. 10 points each at 9.00 and 8.00 respectively. England are way too short and Spain will miss Putellas.

Both looking ok for you at shorter prices now and ending up paired with the rank outsiders in the quarter finals. France also shorter in the betting but haven't been entirely convincing. 

Anyone who had the foresight to bet on Austria or Belgium will be disappointed to see them at bigger prices now than they were antepost. Not much reward for having such faith in them.

Of the more fancied teams, Spain and Holland have both drifted considerably in the betting but I'm not sure it makes either of them an appealing betting proposition. Holland at 17 would tempt me more than Spain at 9.4 but I'll just let my France bet play out.

For the knockout stages I'll have to decide whether to persevere with the header bets or not, and whether there's any appeal in the traditional draws or going to penalties bets that so often pay off in International tournaments. I've looked back over the last 2 Euros, World Cups and Olympics and the stats look like this (QF onwards and ignoring 3rd place play offs so 7 games from each tournament and 42 in total).

Euros - 4 draws, all going to penalties

World Cup - 2 draws, 1 going to penalties

Olympics - 7 draws, 6 going to penalties

Total - 13 draws, 11 going to penalties

[Torque]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Both looking ok for you at shorter prices now and ending up paired with the rank outsiders in the quarter finals. France also shorter in the betting but haven't been entirely convincing. 

They've both come in as you say - never a bad thing. Those were my opening gambits in the market and I've been building a book ever since. I'm in good shape at the top of the market, so as long as the winner comes from the teams in single figures right now it'll be a small loss at worst. If any of Netherlands, Austria or Belgium win then it'll be a hefty loss as things currently stand, but I'll be adjusting my book right up until the final so things could change.

[harry_rag]

Been looking at the top scorer/golden boot market. There are 7 runners with 2 or more goals so far.

1. Mead (England) 5 - best price 1/2
2. Russo (England) 3 - best price 40/1
3. Popp (Germany) 3 - best price 14/1
4. Geyoro (France) 3 - best price 12/1
5. Leuchter (Holland) 2 - best price 66/1
6. White (England) 2 - best price 11/1
7. Angeldal (Sweden) 2 - best price 50/1

Not much appeal in taking 1/2 about Mead not getting caught. Russo price would be interesting if she is in contention to start. PP would allow me 25p if I wanted to take that bet! Geyoro's goals all came in the opener against Italy and I can't get excited about her prospects at that price. Leuchter, like Russo, might be interesting if she starts which is possible given Martens is out with injury and Miedema still a doubt with Covid but I don't see the goals flowing for Holland from here on in. White so-so at the price, Angeldal not really an out and out goalscorer.

The one that appeals to me is Popp at 14/1 Skybet (12/1 Betway) and I've had a bet on that. She's scored in every game so far and has a good chance of adding to that tally against Austria, along with a strong chance of at least making the semi finals.

[harry_rag]

England v Spain today and I think this is a closer call than the markets predict, even with England drifting overnight (Spain were as big as 16/5 to win but now 14/5.) This game seems a prime candidate to consider the draw/penalties angle. Given that 11 out of 13 draws in the sample of International tournament games I looked at went to pens there's probably more value in the latter.

I've been matched on the draw at 3.8 and am on the game going to penalties at 11/2 with Lads.

Though last time I forecasted a close game for England they destroyed Norway 8-0!

Not sure about the headers angle on this game given I see goals being at a premium. 9/5 feels ok at best, might wait till the game goes in play and hope that the next goal to be a header bet is available at 19/5. The no goal/no bet angle makes that seem appealing for this game.

[Torque]

What to make of the drift on England... I'll be hoping they win, but that's some drift.

[Labrador]

For a bit of interest I've had a bet on Spain corners. England have hardly been put under any defensive pressure so far in the tournament whereas Spain have racked up 32 corners in their group matches. Admittedly 17 were against Finland but they still notched up 6 and 9 against Germany and Denmark respectively. Provided Spain are chasing the game, there could be a chance of a few corners being conceded by England. I have backed over 6.5 Spain corners at 3/1 (skybet).

[harry_rag]

On 7/19/2022 at 4:05 PM, harry_rag said:

For the knockout stages I'll have to decide whether to persevere with the header bets or not, and whether there's any appeal in the traditional draws or going to penalties bets that so often pay off in International tournaments.

Quick review of the betting on the quarter finals. Only 2 winning bets from 18 for a small loss.

2 winning "draw" bets out of 4 (I took Austria double chance in that game). Extremely close to a third winner at 6.4 in the Sweden game. Decent odds of 3.8 and 4.0 for the winning bets. I'll carry on backing the draw in the semis.

6 losing "win on penalties" bets (effectively 4 bets; I took the "either team" price in a couple of games and dutched both teams in the others). Both draws were won in extra time but I think it's worth persisting with the dual bet approach.

4 losing "header scored" bets in the first 3 games, didn't bother with the last one. No headers in the last 6 games but still represent 28.9% of all goals. Will consider on a game by game basis from here on in.

4 losing player bets (interest bets on the last couple of games).

[harry_rag]

England v Sweden: I've taken the draw at 3.7 (shorter now) and will be looking at a bit on the game going to penalties at 11/2 or better. Tends to be a value proposition in International tournament knockout ties and this doesn't look like an obvious game to consider avoiding.

I'm also on >2.5 cards at 9/5 with Uni (which probably makes me a masochist in terms of how the bookings bets have gone so far). Staubli in the middle, showed a willingness to flash the cards in her first game and an ability to keep them in her pocket in her second one. Looking at her overall record in International tournaments and considering that this is a semi final, the odds feel fair at worst. The spreads are pitched at 24-27 and the average for the tournament so far is 20 points. If we take 22 as the "true" value I get odds of 2.7 for >2.5 cards. There are some appealing prices with 365 where I've taken the spare change allowed. 11/8 for each team 1+ cards (well odds on elsewhere), 9/1 for each team 2+ cards (was considering 5/1 with Hills, shorter elsewhere) and >2 AH cards at 2.05 (where 2 cards is a push).

As for header scored, I could make a case for 19/10 pre-game or (if offered) the standard 19/5 for next goal to be a header in play but I think there's a couple of things that make the bet less attractive at this stage. Goals expectations are lower now we're into the knockout games, partly because the teams are closer in quality anyway and partly because KO games tend to be closer than others. Also, the defences should be better than those the teams were facing in earlier games when the headers were flying in. We've had 24 headers scored in 12 out of 28 games. The 12 games where no headers were scored include the last 6 games and, obviously, all the quarter finals. Maybe a bet to park now until the next major tournament.

[Torque]

I'm hoping the headed goals theme continues, as I've backed White to score one at a boosted 13.00 @ 365 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm hoping the headed goals theme continues, as I've backed White to score one at a boosted 13.00 @ 365 

Probably the best price available, I can see it's appeal but I'm inclined to guess at "fair at best" though that's without knowing if she scores an unusually high % with her head. She's a best priced 9/4 to score anytime and the spreads have her at more like a 13/5 shot at least. I'd say there have been games in this tournament where it would have been a value bet (given the quality of the opposition) but I'm wary (at long last) of betting on goalscorers in knockout games where a 0-0 would hardly be a surprising result.

My mug/fun/interest money is going on Angeldal to score from outside the area at 40/1 with Betway. Backed her anytime in the first game and considered her for the second but swerved her for the third when she finally found her shooting boots and scored twice. Left her alone in the QF only to see her banging decent shots in from all over the shop! If it buys me a single "ooh" I'll just about feel I got my £3 worth.

[harry_rag]

Well that didn't unfurl in a typical semi final style! Fair play to England for weathering the storm, taking their chance when it came and then sealing an emphatic win, however much anyone might say the score flattered them to some extent. Obviously nowhere with the draw/pens bets. Unlucky with the cards in as much as I only needed one more to land the main bet. Got a win and a push from the "pence" bets. Prospect of cards always recedes when one team has a game won. That said, I might have to acknowledge the reality that the only way to win betting on cards would be to bet low. It's one of those markets where most people are only willing to bet one way, leading to any value almost always being in the other direction.

Obviously, having abandoned the bet, there was a header scored. 

On the draw in today's game at 3.35 and looks like it will be 5/1 for pens. Header is 2/1 though I'm inclined to stick to my guns and leave it be. If anyone wants to take that as a crystal clear indicator of what to do...

[Labrador]

For a bit of interest I've gone with Wendie Renard to break her goal-scoring duck in this tournament. I anticipate that France will be trailing and will have to be "do or die" in the last 15 minutes or so. Renard is bound to be up for any corners or free kicks. It's notable that Spreadex goal minutes for Renard are 6-9 whereas Sporting Index are only 3-6. So a small buy of Wendie Renard's goal minutes at 6.

[harry_rag]

26 minutes ago, Labrador said:

For a bit of interest I've gone with Wendie Renard to break her goal-scoring duck in this tournament. I anticipate that France will be trailing and will have to be "do or die" in the last 15 minutes or so. Renard is bound to be up for any corners or free kicks. It's notable that Spreadex goal minutes for Renard are 6-9 whereas Sporting Index are only 3-6. So a small buy of Wendie Renard's goal minutes at 6.

I’m thinking along similar lines! Gone for split across goal mins and goal rush plus, soften the blow if she scores early.

Edited July 27, 2022 by harry_rag

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Labrador said:

For a bit of interest I've gone with Wendie Renard to break her goal-scoring duck in this tournament. I anticipate that France will be trailing and will have to be "do or die" in the last 15 minutes or so. Renard is bound to be up for any corners or free kicks. It's notable that Spreadex goal minutes for Renard are 6-9 whereas Sporting Index are only 3-6. So a small buy of Wendie Renard's goal minutes at 6.

You were unlucky there. Panned out exactly as you thought. 

[Torque]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:08 PM, harry_rag said:

The one that appeals to me is Popp at 14/1 Skybet (12/1 Betway) and I've had a bet on that. She's scored in every game so far and has a good chance of adding to that tally against Austria, along with a strong chance of at least making the semi finals.

Popp looking good 

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

Popp looking good 

Shame the standout price was in the "Golden Boot" market rather than "Top Goalscorer" though. Mead's 4 assists means she wins the former if things stay as they are as opposed to the latter being a deadheat. Both are effectively down to a 3 horse race now, here are the standings and prices (top scorer in brackets) I could find.

Mead: 6 goals and 4 assists - 2/5 (10/11)

Popp: 6 goals and 0 assists - 3/1 (4/5)

Russo: 4 goals and 1 assist - 80/1 (50/1)

I'd say the 3/1 for Popp might be slightly generous (2/1 elsewhere) but hardly worth topping up on, I think it's a case of just letting it run. Maybe have a saver on Mead scoring should Popp score before her.

[harry_rag]

On 7/27/2022 at 2:11 PM, harry_rag said:

Header is 2/1 though I'm inclined to stick to my guns and leave it be. If anyone wants to take that as a crystal clear indicator of what to do...

I hope you all piled on!  

Headers (unbacked) in both semis leaves us with 26 headers scored in 14 out of 30 games so far. That's 28.89% of all goals with a header scored in 46.67% of all games, making it a very profitable bet to have followed for anyone with the foresight to have done so from the off and to have stuck with it.

It got me wondering how that compared to the proportion of headed goals in the major leagues for the men's game and whether there might be any value in the market when the new season starts. Spoiler alert; probably not unless the prices are much higher!

For the 6 leagues I looked at (the obvious big 5 plus Portugal) headed goals made up 16% of all goals. It was fairly consistent, ranging from as low as 15.24% in Italy to as high as 17.03% in Spain.

It was worth a look but I suspect we won't be getting anything close to value on the headed goals bet in those leagues.

[harry_rag]

Bets for the final so far:

The draw at 3.4

Game to be decided on penalties at 6/1 Hills

Header scored at 19/10 Hills

On a hiding to nothing with the header bet in terms of deciding when to back it and when not to, but I think it's value in this game. England have scored 4 headers in 3 out of their 5 games (20% of all their goals) and Germany have scored 6 in 4 of their games (46% of all their goals. You could probably make a case for buying Germany's headed goal minutes at 11 (maybe more appealing than England's at 13).

Outright interest is Popp for the Golden Boot at 14/1 which is effectively her to outscore Mead in the final. 

[Torque]

Not sure if I'll take anything in this game - I'll have a look tomorrow. As for the outrights, I'm quids in no matter the outcome but I'll be rooting for England as they'll give a greater return.

[Torque]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Outright interest is Popp for the Golden Boot at 14/1 which is effectively her to outscore Mead in the final. 

Fingers crossed for Popp. The price you got when you got it was definitely the value.

[harry_rag]

Had a trawl round the markets and this is where my fun "tenner" is going (£16.22 to be precise, I hit the wrong digit on one bet).

Popp to score a header at 18/1 Betway or Hills - just strikes me as too big, even allowing for the occasion and the opposition. Headed goal minutes at 4 not bad but I'd say this is better.

Popp to have a headed shot on target at 9/2 PP - only allowed a very small stake on this so it's effectively a saver for the above should she have an effort saved by the keeper.

Popp and Mead both to score at 16/1 Sky Bet - boosted from 12/1, maybe close to being at least fair. Takes the edge off for me in the event of them both scoring and me losing my Golden Boot bet on Popp.

Both teams to score a header at 22/1 Hills - gone off this one since placing it but ok for a fun bet. Should probably be more like at least 33/1 if you start doing proper maths on it.

 

[Torque]

I'm going to take a couple of boosts - feel free to shoot me down in flames @harry_rag 

I've had a fair bit of success with these actually, with a couple of winners that I didn't post plus a couple of losers to go with what I've put up on here. I'm up on the tournament with them so far in any case.

I've been picking these boosts on feel, without checking any maths and that's what I'm doing again for the final. The two boosts in question feel like they've got good prices. First of all I'm backing White again to score a header - void if she doesn't start - and as she's likely to be substituted after about an hour I've no idea if the price is worth taking or not, but as I said it felt like a good price when I saw it. I'm also backing Germany to win the tournament, Popp to score and both teams to get a card. Again, it feels like a decent bet. If Germany are to score then Popp is the most likely scorer and a card for each team seems likely given the profile of the match.

 

10pts White to score a Header @ 12.00 365

10pts Germany to Lift the Trophy, Popp to Score and Both Teams to be Carded @ 8.50 365

[harry_rag]

42 minutes ago, Torque said:

I'm going to take a couple of boosts - feel free to shoot me down in flames @harry_rag 

I've had a fair bit of success with these actually, with a couple of winners that I didn't post plus a couple of losers to go with what I've put up on here. I'm up on the tournament with them so far in any case.

 I think we've covered the subject adequately and we're all of an age to buy fireworks etc.!

If you're winning so far then no reason to abandon them, just keep tracking and them and see how it goes as the sample increases. If you only lose a small amount but enjoy them as fun bets on game's you're watching then that's obviously fine as well. I just got to the stage where I decided to leave them alone other than for games like this (big games that I'm actually watching and don't mind £10 or £20 of added interest bets).

I much prefer the Popp header bet at the respective odds, White's left me a little underwhelmed this tournament. Not to say she won't notch with the bonce today though! Other bet looks a reasonable enough price at a glance. You're talking roughly a 5/4, 11/4 and 1/2 shot with the first two obviously related (even I, with my sometimes illogical take on such matters, can see that)! Good luck and let's hope for an entertaining finale to the tournament.

[Torque]

White out to 13.00 for a headed goal now, so I've gone back in 

[Torque]

And the other bet I took out to 9.00 so back in on that as well 

[Labrador]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

White out to 13.00 for a headed goal now, so I've gone back in 

Unlucky - she should have scored with her head in that 1st half and then shot over from a decent pull-back.. Personally from what I've witnessed in this tournament Russo is now a far better centre forward and is very unlucky not to be first choice.

So unlucky about Popp getting injured in the warm up, Harry.

Referee is terribly inconsistent. She missed a couple of definite yellows against the Germans and then books Stanway for something less naughty. Tempting to go in on bookings but will desist.

[Labrador]

Actually have decided to back Lena Oberdorf to be booked (11/10 bet 365).  Perhaps one or two words in the referee's ear during HT.