Racing Chat - Friday 17th June (Royal Ascot day 4)

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

Eighteen two year old fillies assemble for the opener on day four of the Royal meeting for the group 3 Albany Stakes run over 6F. I have a strong fancy here in the Saeed Bun Suroor trained Mawj who looked special when blitzing her rivals on her debut at Newmarket last month under today’s rider Ray Dawson. The runner up Believing has won since boosting the form and actually re-opposes here today. The biggest danger may well be the Aidan O’Brien runner Mediate who’s already won in group company at Naas last month. The finish can be fought out by these two promising fillies. Third favourite is Queen Olly who looked good when winning on her debut at York and should be thereabouts but for me this is all about the daughter of Exceed And Excel who will bounce off of this ground and reports of a spectacular gallop recently can be heeded here.

 

MAWJ 3 points win 10/3 BetVictor

 

Ascot 3.05

A wide open group 1 Commonwealth Cup is next up. Run over 6F the race is for three year olds only. Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power is dropping back to sprint distances having failed to last out the mile in the 2000 guineas finishing 7th beaten just over 6L. That form looks good now with the 1st and 2nd winning group ones since. He has to be a player here. El Caballo has also to be on the shortlist having won his last six races including the group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes when just out battling rival Flaming Rib. I’m interested in the horse who finished fourth that day beaten 2 3/4L, the David Loughnane trained Go Bears Go. He stumbled at the start there and was always playing catch up afterwards. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts here and just going down by a head to Perfect Power in last years Norfolk Stakes. Fast ground suits and he looks the each way value here to me in a tough contest.

 

GO BEARS GO 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.40

The class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap is run over 12F and has attracted a maximum field of 19. I have a strong fancy here in the shape of the favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Just Fine who is owned by The Queen and by all accounts has been trained for this contest. He was a real eye catcher on his re-appearance when a running on third to the useful Gaassee in a valuable York handicap where he was slowly out of the stalls. Sure to have tightened up for that run and with Ryan Moore on top he can take this from stall 7. John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman won well on his re-appearance and is up 5lb and holds some fancy future entries whilst the Irish raider Mashoor is another to bear in mind. The best of the outsiders may well be the bottom weight of Kim Bailey’s in Ajero, who’s better known as a decent hurdler. This is his handicap debut and a mark of 89 looks lenient to me. I’ll have a small ew saver on him with the additional places but my main bet has to be Just Fine for The Queen.

 

JUST FINE 3 points win 4/1 William Hill

AJERO 1/2 point each way 25/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 4.20

The one mile group one Coronation Stakes is run on the round course and is for three year old fillies. The best in on official ratings is the John and Thady Gosden trained Inspiral who was unbeaten as a two year old but has had his issues missing the 1000 guineas and is worth opposing here on her seasonal re-appearance. America send over two fillies who will love the fast ground in Spendarella and Pizza Blanca but it’s hard to put a handle on their form and I’m looking at opposing the pair. Also worth being against is the French runner Mangoustine who won the French 1000 guineas last time by a head from the re-opposing Cachet. She’s smart but the problem with her is that she’s yet to race on ground as fast as this. Looking back to our 1000 guineas Cachet had four of her rivals today behind her with the Ralph Beckett trained Prosperous Voyage the closest going down by a neck and the pair of them can be thereabouts today. Back in 7th that day was the Jessie Harrington trained Discoveries beaten 5L. It was a disappointing run from her but Harrington’s horses were out of form at the time and it’s maybe worth giving another chance to her on ground she will love.

 

DISCOVERIES 1 point each way 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 5.00

A bumper field of 29 three year old fillies go to post for the one mile Sandringham Handicap Stakes run on the straight course. Richard Hannon’s Heredia did really well to win at York last time over 7F when slowly away and finding trouble in running but eventually getting out and flying home to win by a head from Espresso who re-opposes here today on 2lb better terms. She’s been raised 7lb and with this race mooted by her trainer afterwards looks likely to be very competitive. I can’t understand the discrepancy between her and Espresso mind, who although having had the run of the race really shouldn’t be four times the price of Heredia. David O’Meara has had a good week and his handicap debutant Love Interest makes some appeal at a big price. She’s bumped into some smart sorts in her short career and can also run well along with Archie Watson’s Pink Carnation who’s also making her handicap debut here. A tough race with Heredia the main bet with a couple of small each way savers in Espresso and Love Interest.

 

HEREDIA 2 points each way 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234567

ESPRESSO 1/2 point each way 28/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

LOVE INTEREST 1/2 point each way 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

A disappointing turnout for the group 2 King Edward VII Stakes run over 12F with just six going to post. The Epsom Derby form is represented here by Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who ran 5th beaten 9 1/4L. The 7th in the race Nahaani hardly franked the form with a disappointing effort on Wednesday in the Queens Prize and I’ll take the Charlie Appleby trained Ottoman Fleet to take this. Only lightly raced the son of Sea The Stars followed up his unlucky second at Newbury when taking a listed race at Newmarket in May. He looks to have bags of potential and to me looks the likeliest winner here. Savvy Victory was only 1 3/4L behind the selection at Newmarket and looks held whilst Lysander has a progressive profile and should run well.

 

OTTOMAN FLEET 2 points win 9/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 6.10

A real brain teaser to finish with today. A maximum field of 28 go to post for the 5F Palace Of Holyroadhouse Handicap for three year olds only. The weights are headed by the Wesley Ward trained Ruthin who went off favourite for the Windsor Castle last season when only 7th behind Chipotle. Korker represents the in form Karl Burke stable who is up 9lb for a cosy York handicap victory last time out. That pair both have decent claims. Irish raider Ladies Church trained by Johnny Murtagh has some smart sprinting form to his name and can take a hand in the finish in his first handicap. Sterling Knight is chasing a hat trick though is 12lb higher than when starting his winning spree and the drop back a furlong may not be a bonus. A real hard handicap where stakes should be kept small and I’ll go with Ladies Church each way.

 

LADIES CHURCH 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

 

[black rabbit]

ehrza   3 05      1/4 pt win 7/1     U/P  

candleford   3 40   1/4 pt win  9/1    WWON   

ajero    3 40  1/5  pt  ew 20/1    2ND    

shamlaan  6 10 1/5ppt win   20/1    U/P

 

 

 

P/L   + 129 pt  

Edited June 17, 2022 by black rabbit
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