Racing chat -Saturday 7th May

[richard-westwood]

Victoria cup 

Dance fever  9.1 26.0 betfair 

Fresh   8.9   9/1 

Alrehb    8.2 

Strangely the two at the top are a little clear for such a competitive race but its an unbelievably hard race with 7 horses piled up just behind alrehb who is 3rd rated .....fresh ...I'm not sure what to make of tbh ....looks more a 6f horse ...barely stays 7f based on his 3rd at ascot so on paper looks vulnerable at this distance but is undoubtedly well hcapped based on his 6f form so has to go on shortlist in the hope he will last home 

Dance fever has no such worry....stays the trip we'll....ground has come good as he wants it on fast side ...only negative I can see is low draw with horses tending to be favoured by double figures in this race but he has the rail to help so that has to give him bonus points on his rating .....

My tissue is 12/1 and he's available at a crazy 26.0  on betfair so is a value bet regardless so that's all you can ask in such a hard race so I'll have 10pt win and place top rated ....10pt ew on fresh in the hope he lasts home and combo forecasts a 10p tricast combo top 3 .....gotta play in these big races ....cmon you beauts !!

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 1.45

A big field of 17 go to post for this 1m 4F class 3 handicap which despite the numbers doesn’t look that competitive although finding the winner is not easy. Bottom weight Screaming Petra is making her handicap debut although her maiden win hasn’t really worked out. Just Hubert needs further and can’t be fancied whilst Mascat has a chance on his second run for the Tizzard’s having chased home Going Gone at Epsom in the Great Met Handicap. George Margarson has his small Newmarket team in fine shape winning with 2 of his last 3 runners and his Protected Guest can also run well following an easy win at Nottingham last time out. David Menuisier has started the new season in good form and his Flying Solo, a winner at Newbury and York last season starts his season here and if straight enough may be worth a small each way wager and is the bet for me in a tricky contest.

 

FLYING SOLO 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet Victor 1/5th 12345

 

Lingfield 2.05

A very modest 7F class 4 handicap that has no appeal to me as a betting medium and I’m happy to skip over the race. We don’t need to bet on every race do we?

 

Ascot 2.20

Al Aasy is re-routed here from Chester on Friday and is officially rated 8lb and more better than this field of eight in this listed Buckhounds Stakes run over 1m 4F. He has his quirks though but first time out may be the best time to be backing him and it would be no shock were he to win this well under Dane O’Neill for William Haggas and the Shadwell Operation. Third Realm is the next best in (8lb behind Al Aasy) and if in the same sort of form that saw him defeat Derby winner Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial on this day last year can be competitive for team Varian. The Gosden’s saddle Stowell who ran well enough on his re-appearance when third in the Group 3 John Porter at Newbury. There will be plenty of people happy to take on Al Aasy because of his quirks but he is better than these and is a bet for me.

 

AL AASY 2 points win 7/4 BetVictor

 

 

Lingfield 2.40

Five have declared for the Lingfield SBK Derby Trial run over 1m 3 1/2F that last year featured the subsequent Epsom Derby winner Adayar who was runner up in this to Third Realm (re-appears today at Ascot). Charlie Appleby suffered a setback (his first this season?) when his New London was turned over at Chester in the week and saddles a brace here. Walk Of Stars looked green when battling well to beat his stable mate Hatif at Newbury three weeks ago and the boys in blue will be hopeful that he can win this and put himself in the frame for the big one. The Newbury form has taken a double blow by the 2nd and 3rd being beaten since and although he could easily win this he represents poor value at around the even money mark. His stablemate Natural World ground out a win at Newbury the day before Walk On Stars victory there although if his stable companion Ottoman Fleet had been given a better ride he surely wouldn’t have held on. He made all that day and 3/4L back in third that day was the David Menuisier trained Lionel who dwelt at the start and was finishing to some effect. At around double the price of Natural World he looks the value bet here.

 

LIONEL 1 point win @ 8/1 BetVictor

 

Haydock 3.00

We change codes now and it’s the 1m 7F 144yds Swinton Handicap Hurdle up next with a maximum field of 17 going to post. Anna Bunina did us a favour when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle quite cosily in the end I thought by a length from one of today’s rivals in West Cork and although she’s 3lb worse off there shouldn’t be much between the pair although the better the ground the better her chance. Milkwood was back in 5th and seeming held today off of top weight. Philip Hobb’s handicap debutant Luttrell Lad is interesting under Tom O’Brien whilst Cormier and Herbiers are two others that can’t be over looked. A tough contest but I do think that there’s another big race in the Dan Skelton runner West Cork, winner of the Greatwood Hurdle back in November and on only his tenth career run may actually still have some improvement in him.

 

WEST CORK 2 points each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Lingfield 3.15

The SBK Oaks Trial is run over the same trip as the Derby Trial of 1m 3 1/2F and features a healthy turnout of 9. With only 2 of the 9 holding an engagement for the Oaks next month it doesn’t look the strongest of renewals with the Aidan O’Brien runner Emily Dickinson looking the one to beat under Ryan Moore who’s been in unstoppable form this week at Chester. By Dubawi and out of an Irish Oaks winner she’s bred for the job and improved to win a 10F Naas maiden 12 days ago. She’s improving rapidly and can take this. John & Thady Gosden saddle Belt Buckle, a Wolverhampton maiden winner in February who has been given the Ribblesdale entry recently. She will need to step up from that win and is surely only as short as she is because of her connections. George Boughey already has one Classic in the bag with Cachet in the 1000 Guineas and his Mystic Wells is the highest rated here who should be thereabouts but only scraped home in a Brighton handicap last time.

 

EMILY DICKINSON 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.30

A nine runner one mile fillies only class 2 handicap is up next at the Berkshire track. With the current outsider of the field only priced at around 12/1 this is an open handicap. Roger Varian sends his four year old Strawberri here with Andrea Atzeni riding. She was progressive last year and warrants plenty of respect today. Saeed Bin Suroor is very much in the shadow of his fellow Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby at the moment and saddles a brace of fillies here in top weight Soft Whisper and Stunning Beauty both of whom have been racing over in Dubai this winter. Hughie Morrison has taken charge of the ex Gosden runner Delta Bay but hasn’t been seen for over a year and is best watched in the market regarding her chances. Don’t Tell Claire hails from the Daniel and Claire Kubler Lambourn stable who struck with Outgate in the week at Chester and is another with a chance. A tough call this one but my pin has landed on Strawberri, a dual winner at three years and a horse who could possibly make a mark on pattern company this season.

 

STRAWBERRI 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Lingfield 3.50

The 7F Chartwell Fillies Stakes is a Group 3 contest for 3 year old fillies and mares and we have a field of eight. One of two three year olds Symphony Perfect is the highest rated and has run well in defeat on both starts this season when 5th in the Greenham and runner up over a furlong shorter in a listed contest at Chelmsford. She has claims but whether she wants a step back up to 7F is debatable. Roger Varian saddles She Do not seen since winning a listed contest at Newmarket last October by a short head from the progressive Gale Force Maya and also comes into calculations. The most intriguing runner has to be the Irish raider trained by Henry De Bromhead Wren’s Breath who was a winner on only her second start in listed company at Naas last July. She flopped on her only subsequent run in the group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster last September and it will be interesting if there’s any money for her. A tough call but it’s the Varian runner She Do that will do for me.

 

SHE DO 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 4.05

The days most competitive race is the tote Victoria Cup run over the 7f of the straight track with a bumper turnout of 28 going to post. Last years winner River Nymph is back to defend his title from a 2lb higher mark but would prefer softer conditions and his jockey that day Adam Kirby appears to have jumped ship to ride the same stables Aratus. Fresh has great track form but would also prefer softer conditions and is overlooked for that reason alone. Dark Shift is my main selection here having won first time out in the last two seasons and has an impressive three wins from four starts on the straight course here. Charlie Hills has his team in good shape and looks sure to be competitive as long as stall 4 is no hinderance. There’s plenty of others with chances as you would imagine in such a tight knit race but I can’t resist a small ew bet also on the in form George Margarson runner Ropey Guest. He has a good record fresh (4th in Jersey and 6th in this contest in last two years) and has a change of jockey today as Tom Queally (who’s ridden him on 21 of his 25 starts)is replaced by John Egan for some reason (Queally is at the meeting riding for the trainer in the opener). He was only beaten 2 1/4L last year in this race and is 7lb better off with the winner River Nymph.

 

DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

ROPEY GUEST 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456