Six Nations 2022

[harry_rag]

Not much action in this section but I think the 6N merits a thread. I'm sure I'll be having the odd outright bet and an interest in most games.

I had a look at the Rugby Vision rankings and their opinions on Ireland and France are the other way round compared to the antepost market. I was attracted to the 9/2 apparently available for Ireland but that seems to be long gone. It looks like the prices on OC are in need of a refresh. I think trips to France and England suggest that the market may be right rather than the RV rankings.

No Triple Crown winner at 7/4 or better may tempt me in (that or no Grand Slam becoming something of a go-to bet for me over the last few years). I'm waiting for the full range of antepost markets (spreads and specials etc. to go up.

I'll update as I place any bets. Feel free to share any thoughts assuming anyone happens across this post! 

[harry_rag]

Here are the odds taking account of the Rugby Vision rankings, which take a contrary view to the markets on the prospects of Ireland and France.

	Winner	GS	TC	Last
Ireland	2.25	6.58	3.51	1000.00
England	3.76	9.90	3.89	500.00
France	5.29	16.39	n/a	500.00
Wales	20.83	166.67	100.00	200.00
Scotland	18.52	90.91	43.48	66.67
Italy	1000.00	1000.00	n/a	1.024
No Winner	n/a	1.49	2.35	n/a

IF you trust the ratings the key takeaways would be back Ireland, lay France and back no Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner.

Ireland can be backed at around 7/2 outright, 8/1 for the Grand Slam and 11/4 for the Triple Crown. They play Wales (H), France (A), Italy (H), England (A) and Scotland (H) in that order.

Frances prices are 13/8 outright and 7/2 for the GS and they play Italy (H), Ireland (H), Scotland (A), France (A) and England (H)

Clearly the markets are influenced more by the fixtures than the ratings are, with Ireland being away to both France and England while France host the other two. For the ratings not to look optimistic, Ireland are going to have to win at least one of those away games.

No GS is around 5/6 and no TC 7/4. Since the change from 5 to 6 Nations there have been 9 "no GS" years out of 20 and 6 "no TC" years. Over the last 10 years the numbers are 6 and 3.

@jamied02 any chance of some tissue prices from you?

[_Ghost_]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Here are the odds taking account of the Rugby Vision rankings, which take a contrary view to the markets on the prospects of Ireland and France.

	Winner	GS	TC	Last
Ireland	2.25	6.58	3.51	1000.00
England	3.76	9.90	3.89	500.00
France	5.29	16.39	n/a	500.00
Wales	20.83	166.67	100.00	200.00
Scotland	18.52	90.91	43.48	66.67
Italy	1000.00	1000.00	n/a	1.024
No Winner	n/a	1.49	2.35	n/a

IF you trust the ratings the key takeaways would be back Ireland, lay France and back no Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner.

Ireland can be backed at around 7/2 outright, 8/1 for the Grand Slam and 11/4 for the Triple Crown. They play Wales (H), France (A), Italy (H), England (A) and Scotland (H) in that order.

Frances prices are 13/8 outright and 7/2 for the GS and they play Italy (H), Ireland (H), Scotland (A), France (A) and England (H)

Clearly the markets are influenced more by the fixtures than the ratings are, with Ireland being away to both France and England while France host the other two. For the ratings not to look optimistic, Ireland are going to have to win at least one of those away games.

No GS is around 5/6 and no TC 7/4. Since the change from 5 to 6 Nations there have been 9 "no GS" years out of 20 and 6 "no TC" years. Over the last 10 years the numbers are 6 and 3.

@jamied02 any chance of some tissue prices from you?

I'm afraid not - rugby union a sport I don't even retain a passing interest in

[harry_rag]

I've taken the plunge and had 20 points on no Grand Slam winner at 3 on BF (well, to be precise I would only lose 17.2 points should Ireland land the TC).

Currently 7/4 best with the bookies, it did briefly trade at bigger than 3 on the exchange but has settled at 2.9 now. I accidentally laid Ireland thinking I was in the outright market and managed to back them at slightly better odds to close out, hence the slight anomaly mentioned above.

[harry_rag]

27.3 points on >1.5 red cards shown at 10/11 365 and Fred

Backed this last year at 23/20 and won easily (there were 5 in total). Found these stats and comments.

"Of the 12 red cards in the 21-year history of the competition, seven have come in the two most recent tournaments following a crack down on tackle heights."

"The 2021 competition therefore has the most red cards by far with an unprecedented five players not finishing a game. A combination of high tackles and illegal clearouts were largely responsible for the surge in cards. If this year’s competition is anything to go by, we can expect another collection of red cards to plague the 2022 tournament as World Rugby continues to crack down on player welfare."

I just can't see there being less than 2 red cards this year (well, I can, but I think it's far less likely than the odds imply). I'm not one for going gung ho on any one bet but I'd have had a bit more on this had I been allowed, so may top up via other options.

 

[harry_rag]

Spread prices on some of the main tournament totals numbers with last year's make up in brackets. If you disagree with any of these predictions then you may find a fixed odds under/over line you like.

Total Points: 700-695 (745)

Total Tries: 80-80 (86)

Shirt numbers: 900-910 (960)

Drop Goals: 1.3-1.3 (0)

Yellow Cards: 15-16 (16)

Red Cards: 2.1-2 (5)

Bookings: 190-200 (285)

Highest scoring match: 73-72 (64)

Lowest scoring match: 20.5-20.75 (17)

Missed kicks: 35-37 (?)

Kicking metres: 3350-3450 (3391)

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, harry_rag said:

27.3 points on >1.5 red cards shown at 10/11 365 and Fred

RP preview and tips are up now and they include this bet. They are also surprised that the line is this low after last year’s glut and see no reason for significantly more lenient reffing. Into 4/5 with 365 but still 10/11 with baldy. A buy at 2 with SX also strikes me as a cheap and low risk play (though 2 would be a push rather than a win).

The RP tip Ireland to win and like Scotland for 2nd place.

[harry_rag]

On 2/2/2022 at 4:11 PM, harry_rag said:

I've taken the plunge and had 20 points on no Grand Slam winner at 3 on BF (well, to be precise I would only lose 17.2 points should Ireland land the TC).

Currently 7/4 best with the bookies, it did briefly trade at bigger than 3 on the exchange but has settled at 2.9 now. I accidentally laid Ireland thinking I was in the outright market and managed to back them at slightly better odds to close out, hence the slight anomaly mentioned above.

 Hmm, that bet is actually no TRIPLE CROWN winner! (No GS winner was an odds on shot.) Hopefully the prices quoted and the reference to Ireland landing the TC are convincing enough on that point.

Good result today with Wales beating Scotland as that leaves Ireland as last man standing, with a win in England needed ahead of a home win over the Scots. Had Scotland won in Wales that could have set the game against Ireland up as a TC decider.

[harry_rag]

On 2/2/2022 at 4:11 PM, harry_rag said:

20 points on no Grand Slam Triple Crown winner at 3 on BF (well, to be precise I would only lose 17.2 points should Ireland land the TC).

With 2 rounds to go this bet is now 17.2 points on Ireland NOT to win the Triple Crown at 3.326, with no winner currently a best price 8/11.

I think I'll just let it ride, with England away rather than Scotland at home the more likely game to frustrate their ambitions.

On 2/3/2022 at 1:38 PM, harry_rag said:

27.3 points on >1.5 red cards shown at 10/11 365 and Fred

I'd have hoped this bet had landed by now, especially if you told me there would be a red card in the 9th game, but with that being the first one it's pretty much a coin toss now. Hopefully there will be at least one more as we reach the business end of the tournament.

[harry_rag]

I'd say France's hotshots were a sell at 39 tonight with SPIN (25 points per try by Yoram Moefana, Gael Fickou, Gabin Villiere, or Antoine Dupont). SX go 32-36 but have Jaminet instead of Dupont. My take on the "true" price is more like 30 for the SPIN quartet and 27 for SX. So, of the 2, the sell at 39 would appear to offer the bigger edge.

Obviously France could run riot and the hotshots could combine for 8 tries and a painful loss on the bet but my view (based on selling over 900 sets of RU hotshots) is that the price is slightly more wrong than average, so worth taking on.

[harry_rag]

I think France win this but by a modest margin. 9/4 PP for 1-10 points is my preferred bet but, given how much I was allowed on, I've topped up on 1-12 at 7/4 with Fred. Watching the game, hopefully it will be a good one but at least I've got a bit of interest.

[owenclass]

Wales should have won that match

[harry_rag]

Well, an enjoyable game to watch even after the points stopped coming! A triumph of French defending, and a clean sweep on the bets. 9/4 and 7/4 winning margin bets landed and no hotshots tries for a profit of 39 x stake.

Hopefully England can frustrate Ireland later to foil the triple crown. Oh, and a red card in either game is also on my wishlist!

[harry_rag]

Well England supplied the second red card I wanted last week but Ireland foiled the bet on no triple crown winner. Watching the final game with a couple of bets for interest, both teams to get a yellow card at 11/2 and bought England front 5 try minutes at 12.

[owenclass]

I should have done the bet of Dupont scoring a try. France scoring more than two tries and France to win

[fd1972uk]

What about that Wales defeat, 1/200, lol.