jamied02

Latest 8 match and season to date ratings as well as projections;

Man Utd

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings. Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections 1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1 1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1 0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1 0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1

Here's the first iteration of my projections - not one to get too drawn into transfer business, I prefer to see evidence on the pitch which will be reflected in my ratings after 4/5 games anyway. The exception to this of course is Newcastle with there new found wealth - although in fairness where I've pitched their rating pre-season isn't a million miles away from their rating over the last 24 matches of last season.

It's been a while since I posted any ratings so without further ado he's the latest 8 and 24 match ratings: **There's been a few changes to the ratings since the last update; firstly, last x matches are split 50/ 50 home and away rather than the last x matches (eg last 8 matches will be the last 4 home and last 4 away, rather than the last 8 matches regardless of location (in the case of 24 match ratings, of course teams haven't reached this landmark yet so these are effectively season-to-date ratings weighted for home/ away until 12 home/ away have been played . And secondly, strength of opposition (based on market opinion) now taken into account** Latest projections:

Looking at this game from a stats perspective I make it in for 2.09 goals with the suprem favouring Everton by 0.02 - if this game was being played a month or so ago I'd be playing No First Goalscorer alongside either Under 1.5 goals or the draw, but it's not it's being played today. From a psychological perspective it is very much a "must not lose" match for both sides. I think inline with the goal line we can expect a cagey opening, however the longer the game stays 0-0 the more the onus will be on Burnley to come out and attack, a tentative play for me would be Draw HT/ Everton FT, this plays into the narrative that as Burnley press for the winner they can get caught by a sucker punch. I must caveat all of this with I think if there's an early goal, all bets are off and the floodgates could open as the team that falls behind presses to try and get back into the game. On my 8 match ratings these sides rank 18th and 19th and over a longer period of 24 matches they rank 18th and 15th with both sides producing some very poor attacking numbers indeed.

Early xG ratings:

Everton look in a diabolical shape at both ends at the minute and my ratings highlight a resurgent Newcastle as the value tonight at around 9/4

Correct

P - Played Pts - Points so far F - Expected goals for A - Expected goals against GD - Expected goal difference Prj - Raw Projected points Adj - Adjusted points (based on historical points averages) MLS - MLS Cup winner odds SS - Supporters Shield winner odds Div - Divisional/ Conference winner odds #1S - Number 1 seed odds TQ - To Qualify for the play off odds

Pre-season projections:

Pre-season projections:

Pre-season projections:

Outright tissue from my model; Name the finalists grid..

Conference Championships this weekend.. latest tissue.. Name the finalists.. Straight forecast..