Racing Chat - Saturday 4th September

[The Brigadier]

Here are my thoughts on the 8 ITV races for Saturday:-

 

Haydock 1.45

The Group 3 Superior Mile has attracted a disappointing turnout of only five runners and it’s very hard to see past the favourite Lord Glitters here who is officially  the highest rated. David O’Mera’s globetrotting veteran has two of today’s rivals Bell  Rock and My Oberon a length and two and a half lengths respectively behind when runner up to the progressive Real World at York a fortnight ago and is actually better off at the weights with both of those and I find it hard to believe either will turn the tables on the grey. Artistic Rifles and Maydanny are stepping up from handicaps and this really does look Lord Glitters to lose. I’m keen on three shorties today and I also think it’s worth trebling the trio up.

 

LORD GLITTERS 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

LORD GLITTERS, STARMAN, HUKUM 2 points win treble

 

Kempton 2.05

Eight two year olds have declared for the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes and it has an open look about it. The best piece of form is arguably brought to the race by Clive Cox’s Wings Of War who was third in the Geoff’s Premier Yearling Sales races at York’s Ebor meeting. He should run well along with Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora who ran a good 5th in the Lowther Stakes last time. I’m happy though to go with the impressive course and distance winner Scot’s Grace who bolted up here back in July and missed a subsequent run at Windsor in August due to the soft ground. Trained by up and coming Newmarket handler Kevin Philippart De Foy the Mehmas filly may represent a touch of each way value (fingers crossed all eight run).

 

SCOTS GRACE 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 123 William Hill

 

 

Haydock 2.20

An interesting 14F handicap for three year olds features the Melrose Handicap winner from York’s Ebor meeting in the unexposed Andrew Balding trained Valley Forge who was pushed out to win by half a length and has been raised 7lb for that success. He’s on the upgrade and looks the one they all have to beat here. Vino Victrix is chasing a hat trick following wins at Sandown and at Kempton and Hughie Morrison’s charge should be thereabouts. All eight runners have some sort of claim but I’ll be sticking with Valley Forge who beat a better field than this last time out.

 

VALLEY FORGE 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Kempton 2.40

A disappointing turnout of only five here for the Group 3 September Stakes and a warm favourite in Owen Burrows’ flag bearer Hukum. He will be hard to beat with question marks over his opponents. Second favourite Hamish was trained for the Ebor and was pulled out on the day when the ground dried up. He’s not raced on a synthetic surface before and has to overcome a 442 day absence. Prince Of Arran is surely using this as a stepping stone to another tilt at the Melbourne Cup whilst Fox Tal finds it hard to win nowadays and has acquired the dreaded Timeform squiggle. That just leaves Outbox who Hukum beat by a comfortable 1 1/2L at York in July. Despite a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 victories at York and Newbury this Summer he will be hard to beat on a surface he won on as a two year old.

 

HUKUM 3 points win @ 8/11 BetVictor

 

Haydock 2.55

A lot of the 12 runners for the Old Borough Cup are disappointing sorts who are out of form and I’ll be backing top weight Global Storm who has a touch of class about him. He made no impression when in mid field in the Ebor last time out but had previously been a consistent stayer winning at Newmarket in May and placed in top handicaps at Royal Ascot and Newmarket’s July meeting. His main danger may well be the bottom weight Noble Masquerade who’s receiving 22lb from the selection and comes here on the back of an impressive Windsor victory.

 

GLOBAL STORM 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.10

The Lavazza Stakes is a class 2 12F handicap and is contested by some progressive three year olds. Top of the list has to be the Sir Michael Stoute trained Wahraan who followed up comfortable wins at Pontefract and York in July with a slightly unlucky 5th in a decent York handicap where he was beaten 2L by Migration when not getting the clearest of runs close home. He steps up in trip here which should suit and he’s my selection with Ryan Moore taking over from Kieran Shoemark. There are plenty of dangers though amongst whom are William Haggas’s Chalk Stream who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and Gary Moore’s Champagne Piaff who’s up 5lb and two furlongs for his gambled on Windsor victory. He looks Wahraan’s biggest danger to me.

 

WAHRAAN 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Haydock 3.30

Eleven classy sprinters go to post for this years renewal of the Betfair Sprint Cup , a Group one contest run over 6F. It’s hard to look beyond favourite Starman with the ground coming right for him. He holds 8 of his 10 rivals on his impressive July Cup victory at Newmarket and in the circumstances ran a blinder last time in the Maurice de Gheest when soft ground and the additional half a furlong was his undoing. Ed Walker will have him spot on for this and it really is his race to lose.

 

STARMAN 4 points win @ 10/11 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.45

An interesting 7F handicap that gives us a couple of nice betting opportunities. Top Secret is the most likely winner to my eyes and has to be part of the staking plan here. He’s a progressive four year old trained by William Muir and Chris Grassick who’s latest second to Neenee’s Choice was franked by that one winning at Salisbury on Thursday. He’s already won over course and distance this season. Last year’s winner Documenting is back on the same mark and following a promising run at Doncaster should be on the premises whilst the other one I want as part of my staking plan is Ascot specialist Ripp Orf who’s track figures read 13125420 with the last run coming before a long absence. He showed very little on his comeback run at Sandown last month but this is his track and the handicapper has dropped him 9lb for his last two starts plus he has the assistance of a decent 7lb claimer in Jonny Peate.

 

TOP SECRET 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th odds 1234 Paddy Power

RIP ORFF 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th odds 1234 Paddy Power

 

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Done an early double myself, Global Storm and Starman. 

May look at another couple of bets as not big on international footy betting.