Racing Chat - Saturday 28th August

[The Brigadier]

Not the best Saturday’s racing but interesting none the less and here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races which should be run on good fast ground. 

Goodwood 1.50

A decent turnout for the 7F Group 3 Prestige Stakes for 2 year old fillies with 11 going to post. The form horses are Hello You who has been placed in Group 3 and Group 2 company already this Summer when trained by Ralph Beckett but is now in the care of David Loughnane and appeared to take too keen a hold in a first time hood last time out at York in the Lowther when finishing 6th of 10 beaten 3 1/2L. The hood remains today and only time will tell if she’ll settle better today though the step up to 7F should help. She has her doubts now so the main selection for me has to be the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Daneh, a well related Dubawi filly, who following an impressive Kempton debut stepped up in grade and ran with plenty of credit when a 1 3/4L third to George Boughey’s Oscula in a Group 3 at Deauville. She missed the start that day and is very much in the upgrade. I’m also keen on having a small saver on the Andrew Balding trained Wilderness Girl who won a maiden at the big meeting last month doing us a favour and despite mixed messages from the form since (the 4th has actually won) it wouldn’t come as a surprise if like many of Balding’s this season take the step up in class in her stride. Fridays easy maiden winner Silk Romance gave a big boost to her Kempton conqueror Tinderbox and she too can run well here. 

DANEH 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

WILDERNESS GIRL 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5 1234 William Hill

 

Beverley 2.05

Only 7 go to post for this valuable 10F class 2 handicap which has an open look about it. Favourite here is likely to be the Roger Charlton runner Barn Owl who’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time. He’s was comprehensively beaten off of the same handicap mark at Ripon last time when 2 1/2L runner up to a progressive Haggas winner and may be vulnerable again here today. Bottom weight Life On The Rocks is an interesting runner who ran well on his first start for Richard Fahey at Ripon earlier in the month and with Fahey having won this race twice in the last five years has to be given respect. March Law (418 days) and Titan (309 days) are back from substantial lay offs for the big yards of Mark Johnstone and William Haggas respectively and have to be monitored in the betting. The best value may lie however with the Alan King trained No Recollection who was a Salisbury winner in May and appeared not to stay 12F at track last time. He’s been gelded since and is worth a small wager at the prices. 

NO RECOLLECTION 1 points win @ 15/2 William Hill

 

Goodwood 2.25

Only ten go to post for this £50,000 7F handicap which has to be deemed as disappointing. Clive Cox has two strong contenders here in Dance Fever who was just touched off last time at Doncaster and the highly progressive Aratus who’s chasing a four timer here. Adam Kirby has ridden the latter on all four of his starts but is on Dance Fever today which isn’t as strange as first thought as Derby winner Kirby’s minimum weight is 9-0 and Aratus carries 8-7 today giving David Egan a chance to further bolster his bank balance which must be bulging with the worldwide exploits of Mishriff this year! Aratus has a nice draw in stall 2 and despite a 4lb rise for his latest win at Newbury looks ahead of the handicap and is the main bet here. Escobar comes here following two decent runs and looks certain to run his usual game race but it’s outsider Kimifive that I can’t resist a small ew saver on. He’s well handicapped (on same handicap mark as when winning over course and distance in May 2019), likes Goodwood ( form figures here of 310623 which includes a head second in the 2020 Stewards Cup off of a 4lb higher mark than today’s) and has left Joe Tuite to join David Bridgewater plus has drawn the plum stall 1. 

ARATUS 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

KIMIFIVE  1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.45

Ten sprinters go to post here for the listed Hopeful Stakes and a strong fancy is the Owen Burrows trained Tabdeed. He’s officially the best in the field and had one of his rivals Royal Crusade (gelded now since that run) 3 3/4L behind when 3rd at Newbury in the Hackwood Stakes last time when going for back to back wins in that contest. He should be primed to win now following two starts this season and will be hard to beat. Khaadem is, on jockey bookings, the Shadwell Stud second string and with Summerghand and Mums Tipple carrying penalties this looks an ideal opportunity for Tabdeed to get back to winning ways. 

TABDEED 3 points win @ 85/40 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 3.00

A disappointing turnout of just five go to post for the Group 3 March Stakes which features a skinny favourite in the Roger Varian trained Nagano who’s stepping up a couple of furlongs today which looks likely to suit. He impressed when winning a very competitive handicap at this track in July and having won three of his five starts is very much on the upgrade. He’s the one to beat and will be a hard nut to crack with David Egan in the plate. Only a pound behind on official ratings are the David O’Meara trained Juan De Montalban who’s joined him from France having cost 400,000 euros and Mark Johnstone’s Dancing King who was just run out of it close home last weekend by Yesyes at Chester. The only runner in the select field who actually has a Leger entry is the Andrew Balding trained Classic Lord who has 11lb to find with the favourite and selection Nagano but has already proven his stamina. He’s not a great price but it’s about finding the winner so the selection is Nagano but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Classic Lord ran well. 

NAGANO 3 points win @ 10/11 William Hill

 

Beverley 3.15

A decent field of 12 have declared for this year’s renewal of the Beverley Bullet Sprint to be run over 5F and with a possible draw bias towards the far side and the rail of low numbers. Dakota Gold won this race last year from stall 8 of 9 and was out of his league in the Nunthorpe last time. He holds a decent chance though drawn 10 is not ideal. Drawn even further out is the William Haggas trained Hurricane Ivor in stall 12 and although on the book he should be thereabouts that position with no cover will not help him. Judicial has always gone well at this track (form figures of 1113 including the 2019 running of this race) and despite a 3lb penalty looks the one they all have to beat. He’s fared well with the draw in stall 5 and Julie Camacho’s flag bearer retains all his enthusiasm despite being 9 years of age. He comes here on the back of a defeat of Dakota Gold at Chester (3lb worse off now)under today’s jockey Callum Rodriguez and can take the spoils today. 

JUDICIAL 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Goodwood 3.35

A cracking renewal of the Group 2 Celebration Mile with 9 likely to go to post although with a dry forecast it wouldn’t be a shock if Stormy Antarctic missed the gig as he prefers to get his toe in. The best in at these weights today is Saeed Bin Suroor’s globe trotting Benbatl who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since Newmarket last September when a good 1L third to Kameko. On his best form he should be able to beat these and the vibes from Newmarket are good. I feel he can beat the five older horses that take him on here but whether he can cope with the three three year olds is another matter. They’re headed by Chindit who has kept Group one company this season finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas, St James Palace and Prix Jacques Le Marois. Richard Hannon’s colt looks sure to go well and actually holds the Charlie Hills Mutasaabeq on their Guineas run although he bounced back to form when bolting in at Haydock last time. A tough one to call but I’ll stick with the undoubted class of Benbatl to beat the trio of three year olds. 

BENBATL 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

[Zilzalian]

Todays fun lucky 15 = £6.00

150 Good      Value theory     15/2             lost poor

335 Good      Perotto              8/1              better ride next time please

445 Good      Imphal              25/1 - 50/1  tune up for jumps?            

600 Wind      Extra Elusive    12/1             piss poor

 

bad day bank shrinks to £40.42 from a One'r

 

Speed figures for G3 150 Goodwood

1 Value Theory                   116             15/2

2 Amanda Hug N Kiss        116--           33/1 (Wrong Trip?) might risk it.

3 Hello You/Tinderbox        115              5/1/6/1

Edited August 28, 2021 by Zilzalian
update