Non-League Ante Post 2021/22

[Darran]

I suspected that most of last season's ante-post stuff might turn out to be a waste of time although that was mainly because I doubted if Step 3 would finish. For Step 2 to go as well was frustrating and that left me if just Step 1 and we would have seen a profit if Torquay had won the title but in the end it was a small loss. Hopefully this season we get a clear run of things and all the leagues get to compete a full season. The last time we did get a full season was the 18/19 one and that saw a just 20pt profit whilst the two season before that saw over 20pts profit. Only one season in the 11 years up to 2019 has seen an ante-post loss so confidence is high that we can get a positive outcome this time around. 

 

National League

We have seen big money clubs in this league before with the likes of Crawley and Fleetwood springing to mind, but I don't ever remember there being a time where so many sides are spending big amounts of money. Wrexham and Stockport are the real big spenders, but Notts County, Grimsby and Chesterfield would not be far behind. There are some strong looking sides from other clubs as well and with only 2 promotion places up for grabs there are going to be some disappointed sides come May. 

 

Stockport and Wrexham are both as big as 4/1 but Stockport are shortest at 3/1 so I will start with them. They spent big last season and failed in the play-offs after sacking Jim Gannon and hiring Simon Rusk back in January. It was an interesting appointment but having that half a season to get used to the league could well prove crucial this time around. The squad looks even stronger as well with Scott Quigley looking a very good signing to go alongside Paddy Madden up front. To me they look to have the strongest side on paper and out of those sides in single figures they would be the most likely title winners. They only lost twice at home last season but drew 11 times and they won't need to turn many of those into wins to be champion. Having said that given how open the league looks I am not sure I would want to be taking 4/1 about anyone.

 

Wrexham can finally properly spend the Hollywood money and clearly a fair amount of that cash has gone on signing Paul Mullin from Cambridge United. The fact he has dropped down two divisions says a lot about the sort of money that is around the division this season. The Halifax manager has suggested that there is more money in the National League than League 2 this season and it is easy to see why he would say that. Wrexham's issues in recent years has been scoring goals and you would think Mullin will solve those issues. Overall though at this stage they don't look to be quite as strong as some of the other teams around them in the betting. Also I have big concerns about the manager Phil Parkinson. It was rumoured that Dave Challinor was the wanted man and if he had gone I would have fancied them more. Obviously Parkinson has a lot of experience at a higher level, but for me that counts for very little. We have seen time and time again that managers who have non-league experience is very important when trying to win the National League title. Maybe Parkinson will be the one to break the stat, but we saw it when Salford hired Graham Alexander. Yes they went up via the play-offs, but his lack of non-league experience was really shown up mid-way through the season when they went on a dreadful run of form. They had the team to win the title, but for me the manager was the reason they didn't. I am more than happy to leave them alone at the current price.

 

Like Stockport, Notts County had a change of manager last season with Ian Burchnall coming in for Neil Ardley in March. It looked a bit of a strange one at the time and Burchnall did struggle to start with including a loss to AFC Hornchurch in the FA Trophy in his first game in charge. At one stage it looked like they would finish outside of the play-offs, but they came good in the end and again those few months of last season could be crucial experience for Burchnall this time around. They have done solid business over the summer and if Callum Roberts can stay fit then they will have one of the best players in the division. They ought to be in the title hunt although they need to rely less on wonder goals as that will only get you so far.

 

Next in the betting are Chesterfield and my favourite man in football James Rowe! When it comes to betting you have to bet with your head so I will ignore my hatred for the man here. To be fair to him he turned them around from being in a possible relegation battle to getting into the play-offs. The problem is they didn't play all that well towards the end of the season and then Rowe was completely to blame for them losing to Notts County in the play-offs. Why on earth he didn't take off his injured keeper I will never know and that decision cost them the victory in my view. It showed his inexperience as you could tell he panicked and he will need to learn from it. They took on a £1m loan last season and it has clearly gone on players as Rowe has added to an already large squad over the summer. Danny Rowe would not have come cheap either when they signed him towards the end of last season. I have had to change this bit since I wrote my first draft on the back of Chesterfield signing Tshimanga on Tuesday. For me that is one of the most noteworthy signings of the summer as really he ought to have gone into the Football League if he was going to leave Boreham Wood. I suspect the 3 year contract was the main reason it was such an attractive proposition as 3 year contracts are very rare at this level. He's a great finisher at this level and with Denton and Asante still to come back from injury later in the season that gives Chesterfield the best attacking strength in the division in my view. I really don't want Rowe to win the title, but as I said at the start of the paragraph I have let my head rule my heart and ultimately Chesterfield are overpriced at 9/1. Therefore I am going to be backing them for the title.

 

Next up are the relegated pair of Grimsby and Southend. Paul Hurst knows this level well and has got Grimsby out of the division once before so he knows what it takes. That fact has meant he has built himself a really solid side for the season and it would be no surprise if they went straight back up, although possibly via the play-offs rather than champions. Phil Brown has done reasonable buisness ahead of Southend's first National League campaign, but I get the feeling it will be a season of consolidation rather one that will be challenging for the title and a play-off bid is the best they can hope for.

 

Gary Johnson proved again what a great manager he is at this level when getting Torquay into 2nd place and only losing on penalties in the play-off final. The problem for me is that looked like being the best opportunity they will get for a while to get out of the division and in truth they really ought to have won the title. Losing play-off finalists have a dreadful record next time around as well which is always off putting. They have lost key players and to me at this stage they look weaker going into this season so I am happy to pass them over.

 

After Torquay we get into the teams at 20/1 and above. As we have seen in recent seasons at this level it isn't always the best team on paper that wins the title. Sutton, Barrow and Macclesfield would have been pretty hard for anyone to fancy at the start of the season yet they all beat richer sides to the title. I think we have a couple of likely candidates for one of the lesser sides to possibly win the title again, so I am going to throw a couple more teams at big odds.

 

Dagenham & Redbridge flattered to deceive for a fair bit of last season as they often promised much more than they actually delivered. That changed in the last couple of months of the season when they went on a fantastic run of form which nearly got them into the play-offs. They played some superb football and crucially for them Paul McCallum started scoring. McMahon hasn't done too much business over the summer, but given how they ended last season I am not sure they needed to and the fact they are a settled side could be a big plus for them. 

 

Boreham Wood were one of the sides I put up before last season and they drew way too many games to get involved in the play-offs. 16 draws was the highest in the division, but it also shows they weren't actually that far away from being play-off contenders at the very least. In this sentence I originally put that keeping hold of Tshimanga was a huge plus for them and on the back of that I was going to put them up as a bet at 50/1. Luke Garrard has proven he can get them into the play-offs as he has done it twice already and I like the signing of Mendy as he was Wealdstone's best player last season. I think he can do even better in a better team. However, with Tshimanga gone I just can't back them even at 50/1 because he is such a big loss for them.

 

I put Woking up as a bet on Twitter on the day prices were released and I still think there is a spot of value in their price if you are yet to get on. We can ignore what they did last season as they coasted to the end of the season once relegation was off the table. This season they have a decent sized budget, granted it isn't Stockport or Wrexham sized, but it is still a fair bit higher than last season. I like Alan Dowson as a manager and I think they have certainly have the potential to outperform their odds at the very least.

 

So Chesterfield, Dagenham and Woking are the bets at the moment. Solihull were close to being a bet and if Mark Yates was still in charge I think they would have been. He did so well when he went back last season he nearly got them in the play-offs. I'm surprised they chose Neil Ardley over him myself as I'm not sure he's the right man for the job. They are worth keeping an eye on though and they could be the type of team who get added to the portfolio a month or two into the season. Bromley could be another team like that and it will be interesting if Andy Woodman can make them kick on again after getting them into the play-offs last season. I don't fancy Yeovil at all. They struggled last season and look a mid-table side again for me. Eastleigh blew their play-off chance on the final day of the season, but Ben Strevens continues to get them to higher positions than they really ought to finish. Keeping hold of Ben House will be key for them. Barnet are worth a quick mention as well. They were hopeless for most of last season until Simon Bassey came in and they improved no end. I worried for them when he left in June and Harry Kewell wasn't an obvious replacement. However, the fact they have got Dean Brennan in to help out is a big plus for me and I wouldn't completely rule out a play-off bid for them.

 

Sadly it seems we won't be getting relegation betting again this season although with only 3 going down and Dover are likely to take one of those slots although they have a better-looking squad on paper than I thought they would have.

 

I'm surprised that 40/1 for Tshimanga to be top scorer is still available after his move to Chesterfield. I actually think it gives him a lesser chance of winning because when Asante and Denton return he might not play every game, but if he starts scoring goals he will be hard to leave out of the team and I think he ought to be half that price so he is worth a small e/w bet.

 

Chesterfield 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred 

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfred and BetVictor

Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 80/1 with Skybet with 66s available everywhere else

Tshimanga to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365

 

National League North

We didn't quite get to halfway in Step 2 last season, but it still brings enough clues as to what is going to happen this season and in my view it has made it easier for bookies to price the leagues up. It is no surprise that York and Fylde head the betting as they are the two sides who in my view would have been champions had the last two seasons been completed. This time around I am pretty strongly in the Fylde camp. At the time the season stopped they had just overtaken Gloucester on PPG and I think they would have gone onto win the title. They have an impressive squad and it looks to have got stronger over the break. With a clear run of things this time around I think they will be quite hard to beat.

 

As much as I think York would have won the league in 19/20 they were quite as dominant as they should have been and they were certainly under performing at times last season. Steve Watson does seem to have made plenty of changes ahead of the season in a bid to improve their fortunes and I do think they will do better this time around.

 

Whilst the price on Fylde is tight enough I do think the most overpriced team in the league is Boston. They really impressed last season when I watched them and they were unlucky to suffer a stop/start season thanks to Covid (although it didn't matter anyway), but because of that I think they have been underestimated this time around. I like the business Craig Eilliott has done over the summer and I think they have a decent chance of being in the top 3.

 

Last season for the first time ever I put up my own team Gloucester. We had a really strong first 11, arguably the best in the division, and I thought it would take us a long way. I was right and even after Rowe decimated our squad we were still holding our own with Paul Groves in charge. McClure was the top scorer last season and he has looked in good form in pre-season although at the time of writing I think we need more cover up front. I can't put us up this time around as I don't think we can win the title, but I do think we have a chance of getting in the play-offs.

 

The usual suspects of Brackley, Chester and Spennymoor will no doubt do well again and Chorley should do well as well on the back of their FA Cup run last season. Flyde will be tough to beat though and them and Boston are the bets.

 

Fylde 2pts @ 4/1 with William Hill

Boston 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

 

National League South

Little doubt in my mind that Dorking would have won the title last season. They looked the best side in the division up until the season ended and they should be bang up there again this season. The one slight concern is that maybe that has led Marc White to not make too many moves over the break and will another team improve past them? Even so they have to be covered.

 

My main bet in this division last season was Dartford and they will be this time around as well. They were challenging last term, but they were dropping silly points and they weren't scoring as many as they had the season before. Steve King is a superb manager though as he showed when he took them from a relegation battle to the play-off final the season before. I think he has done really good business over the summer and the signing of Jake Robinson should help the goals for column no end. It could be that the stopping of last season is to their benefit and they look in a great place to go and bag the title.

 

They are the two bets for me as they do look the standout options. Ebbsfleet went very leftfield when choosing their new manager last summer and they could be another club who benefitted from the season ending. Dennis Kutrieb will have got some experience of the division now and he looks to have recruited well over the summer. They were a bit inconsistent last season, but Kutrieb will know more this time around. Havant have got the cash and have a decent squad again, but they had that last season and they were underperforming. They also had the best squad in the league 2 seasons ago and couldn't win the title so I just wonder if Doswell is the right man for the job. St Albans were having an incredible season last time around and it will be interesting to see if they can back that up this season. Hampton and Oxford City both impressed me last season and whilst I can't see either winning the title both should be in the play-off hunt.

 

Dartford 2pts @ 9/2 with William Hill 

Dorking 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfred and William Hill

 

Northern Premier League

This division really looks to be South Shields' to lose. They were under performing a bit before the season ended, but it was early days of course and if anything their squad looks better this term. They have gone full time as well which should help them no end. They shortest priced favourites across the leagues, but they fully deserve to be that sort of price. 

 

Warrington are 2nd in and they should be in the play-off picture yet again. Carden has done good business and they look the best placed side to push South Shields. Off the bigger prices I thought Matlock and Morpeth could go well especially the latter who have done well to get Hartlepool's captain from last season Ryan Donaldson in during the summer.

 

South Shields 3pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Southern Premier League Central

Tamworth did originally open up as favourites for this league, but Peterborough Sports have overtaken them at the head of the market. Michael Gash looks an especially good signing given he was scoring goals two leagues above last season. They clearly have a great chance, but they look tight enough in the betting for me so I am happy to look elsewhere.

 

Tamworth were in a strong position to win the title in 2020 when the season stopped and they had made a solid start to last season as well. If they aren't in the play-offs at the very least then it will be a big surprise, but I am not sure they have strengthened well enough over the summer and that might just stop them from landing the title.

 

My main bet will be Stourbridge who I think should be favourites. In my view they are very lucky to have Mark Yates back after the superb job he did at Solihull earlier in the year. On paper for me they have the strongest squad in the division and they have strengthened really well over the summer. You will have noticed that I haven't mentioned anything about pre-season friendlies and that is because in my view they have very little baring as to what is actually going to happen during the season. I pay very little attention to the results of them although I did notice that Stourbridge haven't had a great pre-season. That has probably helped the price though and as they continue to gel they should only get better. I wouldn't even be too disheartened should they get off to a slow start.

 

I am also going to cover Coalville Town at a double figure price. They were unbeaten when their season ended after 7 games last year and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to be up there this season given the squad and the fact the manager seems to be doing very well for them. They had made good progression from the previous season where they were on the edge of the play-offs before that season ended. Of the others at big prices Rushall were doing well in both curtailed seasons and I see no reason why they won't be in the play-off picture again.

 

Stourbridge 1pt @ 13/2 with William Hill

Coalville 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill

 

Southern Premier League South

In my view Truro were going to win this league last year and I was keen on them last season as they looked even stronger. They are certainly contenders again this time around, but the fact they are ground sharing in Plymouth this season puts me off wanting to back them for the title. No doubt the likes of Poole, Taunton and Hayes will all be in contention as well, but there are 3 worth betting for me.

 

Salisbury are the just about the best of the single figure price contenders for me. They were undefeated in 7 league games last season and they have signed well during the summer so should be well placed for a title bid. 

 

The last two years I have put Weston-Super-Mare up because on paper they have one of the strongest sides in the division. They have flattered to deceive on both occasions, and I wasn't going to back them this time around. I then saw their price and it was too good not to take some off. They have a strong side again and they should be one of the market leaders not priced up as an outsider.

 

The last bet is Farnborough. This might seem a strange one given they weren't great two seasons ago and last season they were even worse in the few games that took place. Manager Spencer Day though would appear to have been very shrewd as he suspected last season might get stopped again so he spent very little money on the side. He was obviously spot on with his thinking and that has meant they have a decent little budget to go to war with this season. Day has signed some good players and the capture of Sam Derring looks particularly eye-catching. They shouldn't be anywhere near 40/1 in my view.

 

Salisbury 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

Weston Super Mare 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365

Farnborough 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365 

 

 

Isthmian Premier League

Worthing were going to be fairly comfortable winners 2 seasons back and they were top when the season ended last year and there is no reason to think they won't go very close to being top at the end of what will hopefully be a completed season this time around. They are favourites, but 9/2 looks too big to me as I reckon they could easily by 3/1 or 5/2 shots. We know the squad is strong and they have cash to strengthen again if need be at any stage. 

 

I was impressed with Hornchurch on their FA Trophy run last season which ended up with them claiming the Trophy at Wembley, and they can go well, but they do seem a little on the short side at 11/2. There are a couple of others worth backing e/w though alongside Worthing. I have put Kingstonian up the last two seasons. 2 back they drew way too many games and then last season they ended up not drawing any of their 9 games, winning 5 and losing 4. I am going to put them up again here as their squad is very impressive and this looks a great chance for them to finally put a title bid together. Certainly on paper they shouldn't be anywhere near 14/1 shots. 

 

The other team I think are worth an investment are Lewes. They should do much better than they have the last couple of seasons after getting the Cray manager in as manager and he then duly cherry picked the best of a very strong Cray team. They look like they have a side who will be challenging for the play-offs at the very least.

 

Worthing 3pts @ 4/1 with William Hill

Kingstonian 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

Lewes 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

 

Total units 26.5

[HastGill1]

Great stuff as always, thanks.

[bromsgrovegreen]

Great write ups Darran

Helps me find out about what teams to maybe back on a Saturday afternoon in leagues I'm not familiar with. 

My team Bromsgrove are in for a season of struggle after losing 7 quality players over the summer and replacing them with kids on the whole. 

 

[Darran]

8 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

Great write ups Darran

Helps me find out about what teams to maybe back on a Saturday afternoon in leagues I'm not familiar with. 

My team Bromsgrove are in for a season of struggle after losing 7 quality players over the summer and replacing them with kids on the whole. 

 

Yeah I'm not surprised to hear you say that. Having said that Stourbridge have started the season terribly and even I'm a bit concerned something isn't quite working there despite all the cash spent.

[Jacobus]

I've noticed a few outright markets are now paying out top 3 at 1/3 now, instead of 1/4.

[Darran]

On 8/24/2021 at 10:40 AM, Jacobus said:

I've noticed a few outright markets are now paying out top 3 at 1/3 now, instead of 1/4.

 

Very odd not sure why they would do that. Usually more likely to go to 1/5 than a 1/3.

[Darran]

Going to add a couple of ante-post bets to the portfolio as well. First of all in the Southern Premier League Central I am going to add Peterborough Sports at 3/1 with Bet365. I do expect improvement at Stourbridge at some point but they have been pretty rubbish so far this season and I must admit I was tempted to take them on against Bromsgrove on Monday. They lost 8-4 to Sports on Saturday and they have looked very good so far so I think it is worth making sure we have some coverage on them. I am also going to add another 0.5pts e/w on Farnborough at 12/1 in the Southern Premier South. I know it is early doors but the 40/1 on them for the title is looking very big at the moment and I think the 12/1 available now still offers some value so it is worth a top up to make 1pt e/w on them in total.

 

Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Farnborough 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

I am going to add a couple of ante-post bets to the portfolio. Only Bet365 and Hills have Step 3 priced up so this are only available if you can get on with them. First of all as I mention above Hayes look set to win the Southern Premier South title and 365 still have them at 6/4 (11/10 with Hills). I think that price is too big and they ought to be odds on already. We already have Farnborough covered so hopefully they can pick up some place money, but backing Hayes now ought to cover the other bets.

 

The other bet comes in the Southern Premier Central. To me this looks a 3 horse race with Coalville, Peterborough Sports and Banbury looking a step above the rest. We already have the first two covered so I am going to add Banbury whose price of 8/1 with Bet365 (7/1 with Hills 1/5 odds) makes little sense. They have played 13 league games and have won 11, drawn twice and obviously haven't been beaten yet. They are 1 point behind Sports who have played 14 games and 4 points behind leaders Coalville who have played 16 games. I just don't see how they can be available to back at an e/w price still and this comes after a great 4-0 win at Tamworth on Tuesday night. Coalville are 5/2 and Sports are 6/5 and in my view they should be around 5/2 as well. It would take a monumental drop off in form for them not to finish in the top 3 and at the very least the e/w part of the bet should show a profit.

 

Hayes & Yeading 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365

Banbury 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

[ipswich45]

Coalville play Banbury this tuesday night, and then Sports play Banbury just before xmas        2 massive games 

[Darran]

Banbury the first team to get over the line. Total stakes were 31.5 and they have returned 12pts

[Darran]

Worthing are champions so add another 15pts to the returns to take it up 27pts returned.

[ipswich45]

Peterborough sports have secured a play off place and 1 more point from last 3 games (Stourbridge away, Hitchin home and Leiston away) will secure a home play off,  yesterdays big game in the SLCP saw Coalville draw 2-2 with Rushden (3rd v 5th)

[Darran]

My maths was wrong and I have staked 32.5 not 31.5. Coalville and Farnborough have both placed so returns are 36.38 so we have guaranteed profit for another season. Hayes and Dorking have outside chances of winning their league's whilst it looks like it will only be place money for Tshimanga.