Racing Chat - Thursday 29th July

[The Brigadier]

The ground appears to be drying out at Goodwood but that can be the worst type of tacky ground as it seemed on Wednesday. Hopefully the ground will continue to dry and we can look forward to racing on good ground on the soft side. Here’s my thoughts on Day 3’s ITV races:- 

Goodwood 150

12 promising three year olds go to post for this valuable 10F handicap. The current market leader is Sir Michael Stoute’s Aerion Power who would have won well last time out at Doncaster but for Mark Crehan mistaking the half furlong post for the winning line. A a mistake he won’t make again that’s for sure. He’s been reassessed for that run and has also never raced on anything worse than good to firm so has no appeal to me here what so ever. There’s not a great deal of soft ground form to hand although Ralph Beckett’s Patient Dream won on the soft last time out at Windsor and it is interesting that the winning jockey that day Rossa Ryan stated afterwards that the horse ‘was not enjoying the ground particularly’ which tempers my enthusiasm for him slightly. Middleham trainer Mark Johnstone runs five here in a race he has won three times out of the least eight years and my personal fancy is My Frankel who had excuses for his poor effort last time at Newmarket when the ground may have been too fast and he also played up in the stalls. He’s showed decent form previously on slow ground and there may still be some juice in his mark of 91. 

KING FRANKEL 1 ½ points each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

 

Goodwood 225

Hugo Palmer’s Galileo Gold colt Ebro River is two from two on soft ground and can take this years renewal of the Group 2 Richmond Stakes with regular rider James Doyle doing the steering. He’s run credibly on his last two outings in the Coventry Stakes and  July Stakes on fast ground and may improve further now racing back on a slower surface. Perfect Power is penalised 3lb for his Norfolk victory and is unproven on easy ground whilst Alan King’s Asymmetric finished a length and a half ahead of the selection in the July Stakes last time and is a worthy favourite for this years Goodwood Cup winning trainer. Richard Hannon runs this year’s Super Sprint winner Gubbass but he too has only run on good to firm ground so I’ll be sticking with Ebro River with a small saver on Khunan who’s second to Tuesday’s winner Angel Bleu on soft ground looks smart form now. 

EBRO RIVER 1 ½ points win @ 11/2 William Hill

KHUNAN ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 300

An open looking Gordon Stakes run over 12F and is a Group 3 contest for three year olds which has been used in the past as a trial for the St Leger in a couple of months time. Bar the disappointing Belloccio there’s only officially 8lb between the field with Aidan O’Brien’s Wordsworth heading the early exchanges. He has some very decent form to his name this season including a 3rd in the Irish Derby and 2nd in Grand Prix De Paris - both Group 1 races. He copes with any ground and must go well. Yibir impressed at the Newmarket July meeting in winning the Bahrain Trophy but is penalised 3lb for that and may prefer better ground. Also penalised 3lb is Andrew Balding’s Youth Spirit who was last seen when bombing badly in the Epsom Derby. Roger Varian’s Third Realm had Derby and King George winner Adayar 1 1/4L behind when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial in May and although the winner is probably a much more polished performer now was still a smart performance on soft ground. He disappointed when only 5th in the Derby beaten some 11 1/2L on his only start since but that form looks exceptional now with the winner winning the King George, the 3rd the Irish Derby and Grand Prix De Paris and the 7th winning a Grade 1 in America since.  He’s my selection here. 

THIRD REALM 2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

Goodwood 335

The 10F Nassau Stakes is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares and has attracted a small but select field of 6. Favourite is the James Fanshawe flag bearer Audarya who handles all ground and has some excellent form in her CV including Grade/Group 1 wins at Deauville and at the Breeders Cup. There was nothing wrong with her 3/4L runner up spot to Love at Royal Ascot on her re-appearance in the Prince Of Wales despite the fact the winner and close third Armory have both been beaten since. She’ll strip fitter for that run and is the one to beat here. Lady Bowthorpe is the other half who represents the older generation here and is stepping up to 10F for the first time. She has the same official mark as Audarya and cannot be ruled out if staying. Aidan O’Brien saddles a pair of three year olds in Empress Josephine and Joan Of Arc who were separated by the width of a cigarette paper in the Irish 1000 Guineas on heavy ground. The latter has stepped up from that to take the French Oaks since and with Ryan Moore choosing her is the pick of the Irish pair. Roger Varian’s Zeyaadah is the other interesting runner in the field. She bombed out in the Epsom Oaks but has smart form either side of that and won’t mind the soft ground. My main bet here has to be the Fanshawe runner Audarya but I can’t  resist a small stakes saver on Zeyaadah who’s on the upgrade. 

AUDARYA 2 ½ points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

ZEYAADAH ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 410

15 have declared for the 7F nursery which has an open look about it although I do quite fancy the Michael Bell trained Adjuvant who has the assistance of Ryan Moore today. This New Bay colt has won both his starts at Chester and Salisbury over today’s trip on good and good/soft ground so bot( trip and going will hold no fears for him. His latest win came when scooting 2L away from a Roger Varian horse called Sed Maarib who came out and bolted up at Beverley on Tuesday to boost the form. Thrown in stall 1 and we have ourselves a decent each way bet. The Richard Hannon trained Ardbraccan is making her handicap debut and could be very well treated if her 1 1/2L second to 1000 Guineas ante post favourite Inspiral at Newmarket is taken strictly at face value. She’s won a Newmarket maiden since and is a big player here if she can cope with the softer ground. Best outsider maybe the Balding runner Aldbourne who doesn’t look that badly treated off of only 72. 

ADJUVANT 2 points each way @ 4/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

[Zilzalian]

2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures

1 Caturra              127+

2 Perfect Power   127

3 Khunan              125

Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1

I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast

335      I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.

410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here      South Audley