Racing Chat- Tue 16th March

[The Brigadier]

It’s finally here! They’ll be no spectators but it’s still the greatest National Hunt festival in the world and it’ll start on soft ground (good to soft in places) following another 10mm of rain on Sunday evening with a mostly dry forecast so we can expect the ground to be improving as we progress through the week. Here are my final thoughts on Day 1.

 

1.20

A disappointing turnout of only 8 (the smallest field ever!) and a short priced favourite in Appreciate It who is obviously the most likely winner. Better value may be deemed with the recent Henry De Bromhead acquisition Ballyadam who didn’t have the run of the race at Leopardstown behind the favourite and with the dead 8 declared appeals as a good ew bet.

 

BALLYADAM 1 point EW @ 13/2 Bet365 1/5th 123

 

1.55

A race to watch and savour. Shishkin has impressed me so much this season with his fluid and athletic jumping that I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t win this. We all know how the race will be played with Allmankind forcing the pace and hopefully Nicky Henderson’s gelding picking him up late. He’s a big odds on chance so this is a no bet race for me. Just sit back and enjoy it.

 

2.30

16 go to post for the Ultima Handicap but I actually don’t think it is as competitive as the numbers suggest! The favourite Happygolucky has the right credentials as a novice with course form and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him but he’s a general 7/2 shot and I’m looking for slightly better value with many firms paying enhanced place terms (Skybet are actually 7 places). The one I like is Harriet Graham’s Aye Right who’s kept the best handicap company all season and not been disgraced in any of his runs. I feel we’ll get a terrific run for our money with a horse who likes to race prominently and the jockey change of Dickie Johnson taking over from the suspended Callum Bewley is hardly a negative.

 

AYE RIGHT 1 point EW @ 6/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345

 

3.05

A good renewal of the Champion Hurdle and it’s the mares who are holding sway here. The 7lb allowance they get is a big advantage and something maybe that needs to be addressed. Honeysuckle is ten from ten, comes here with arguably her best ever run behind her when hacking up in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, has course form and is joint top officially rated. What’s not to like? For me she’ll take plenty of beating with possibly last years runner up Sharjah the best each way value with enhanced place terms (Hills are paying 5 places)

 

HONEYSUCKLE (below) 2 points win @ 15/8 Bet365

 

3.40

Willie Mullins has farmed this race over the years winning it 9 times and saddles the favourite in Concertista here who will be hard to beat. She bolted up in the mares novices hurdle at the meeting last season and is unbeaten in two starts since. She’ll be hard to fancy although there maybe some each way value in Henry De Bromhead’s mare Minella Melody who looks overpriced. It’s hard to believe she can beat Concertista as she’s finished behind her twice already this season but in the ‘betting without’ market she would be very appealing each way.

 

CONCERTISTA 2 points win @ 11/8 Paddy Power

MINELLA MELODY  1/2 point each way (betting with out fav.) @ 18/1 Bet365 /5th 123

 

4.15

The most competitive  race of the day and a real minefield for punters. Plenty have chances but I’m sticking with Dermot Welds challenger Coltor who comes here on the back of a Naas maiden hurdle victory (3rd won since) and wears a visor for the first time over hurdles (the only time he wore it on the flat was when he won his maiden). Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.  is a good booking and he’ll do for me once again shop around for the best place terms with the firms.

 

COLTOR 1 point EW @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 12345

 

4.50

Royale Paigaille running in the Gold Cup has opened this up for Paul Nicholl’s Next Destination who has outstanding claims in a race which isn’t your typical NH Chase as only 13 have declared to run and all will be ridden by professional jockeys due to the ban on amateurs because of Covid. A classy individual who’s two from two over fences including in grade 2 company at Warwick last time when he won his race when his stamina kicked in over the last half a mile. Galvin has been trained for this and is an obvious danger.

 

NEXT DESTINATION 2 point win @ 3/1 Bet365

[Tedthewolf]

It's Christmas ( cheltenham)

Good Luck All ?