Betfair Hurdle - Newbury - Sunday Preview

[The Brigadier]

Well done to the BHA, who seem to get plenty of criticism on social media but are actually doing  a terrific job over the last year keeping our great sport going during the pandemic and another master stroke was transferring the whole of the Newbury Betfair Hurdle card to this Sunday following the abandonment of last Saturday’s card.

 

The Betfair Hurdle is run over 2 miles and 69 yards of the Berkshire track and the going currently is good to soft and with rain around throughout the week I think it’s fair to assume the ground will most likely ride soft come Sunday.

 

The race itself has been known by many names - for us oldies the Schweppes Gold Trophy from its inauguration in 1963 until 1986 then the Tote Gold Trophy from 1987 to 2004, the Totesport Trophy from 2005 to 2011 and since 2012 Betfair have stepped in with their sponsorship.

 

Two of the winners over the years have taken the race and gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following month, Colin Davies’s Persian War in 1968 and Martin Pipe’s Make A Stand in 1997. Leading winning trainer is Nicky Henderson who’s won it  5 times whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies and Gary Moore have  won the race 3 times closely followed by Paul Nicholls with two wins including last year’s victor Pic D’Orhy.

 

As always the race has an open look about it with currently the bookmakers going 5/1 the field.

 

Cadzand is the current favourite following his impressive win at Kempton over Christmas from Christoper Wood who’s won since. He was impressive that day but has been re-assessed to the tune of an 11lb rise. He’s a definite player here mind.

 

Soaring Glory is having his first run in a handicap off of what looks a workable mark. Trained by Jonjo O’Neill he was one of the best bumper horses of last year and his four runs this season in novice hurdles include a defeat of the useful Bravemansgame at Chepstow. He could be well treated off of 133. Jonjo’s other entry Sky Pirate is unlikely to contest this following his leg weary second over fences on Monday.

 

Buzz heads the weight for Nicky Henderson and will need to be putting in a Champion Hurdle performance to be winning this off of 152 that’s 4lb higher than his decent 1 3/4 length runner up to Not So Sleepy at Ascot last time. Keven Brogan claiming 5lb is an interesting jockey booking.

 

Fred is one of the three Henderson runners. He was drafted in following the extra week’s delay but hasn’t been seen since a well beaten fourth on his chasing debut at Warwick in November. This will be his first run in a handicap.

 

Mister Coffey is the third of the Seven Barrows contingent and will be ridden by the stable jockey Nico De Boinville. Very impressive at Sandown in November on his handicap debut he failed to back that up back at the same track a month later when only third to Benson.

 

Fifty Ball represents Gary Moore who knows how to win this contest and comes here on the back of two handicap victories at Ascot and Sandown rising 18lb . Jamie Moore is jocked up for this French bred who’s been ridden by conditional jockeys on his last two runs.

 

Guard Your Dreams represents three time Betfair Hurdle winner Nigel Twiston-Davies and made his handicap debut a winning one when scoring at Sandown on the 2nd January. He’s lightly raced and has been raised 7lb for that win.

 

Edwardstone has always been highly regarded by Barbury Castle trainer Alan King and was a comfortable winner at Market Rasen a month ago following two abortive efforts over fences. He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that victory here but has been raised that amount since so effectively will race off of his current mark.

 

On To Victory is another entry from the Alan King stable with Tom Bellamy already booked to ride. He won the November handicap at Doncaster on the level off of a handicap mark of 99 so on his handicap debut over hurdles may be well treated off of only 129 (I always use the theory of adding 40 to a horses flat mark to equate to it’s hurdle one). He did seem to struggle mind you at Wincanton last time to beat Iron Mike, who’s been pulled up on his only run since. He has also fallen twice over hurdles and may not be a natural hurdler.

 

Thyme White is one of three horses to represent master trainer Paul Nicholls and will be ridden by stable jockey Harry Cobden. He’s not been seen since unseating Cobden in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury back in November. He still had a chance of sorts when departing his pilot two from home and can race off of the same handicap mark here.

 

Wild Max will be ridden by Nicholl’s useful conditional jockey Angus Cheleda who can claim 7lb here. He’s won his last two handicaps at Huntingdon and Doncaster, the latter under Cheleda in impressive fashion though has a 9lb rise here to contend with.

 

Friend Or Foe is Nicholl’s third entry and will be ridden by Bryony Frost. He ran into Guard Your Dreams at Sandown last time and can race here on 2lb better terms for a beating of 1 3/4 lengths - there shouldn’t be much between the pair and they should be closer together in the betting.

 

Milkwood was last seen when third in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury in November. He’s been pulled out before on soft ground so would be hoping for a dry week.

 

Shakem Up’Arry owned by Harry Redknapp and trained by Ben Pauling has some decent back form including runner up at this track to Mister Coffey (beaten 1 3/4 lengths and now 2lb better off) and also to the smart Shishkin. He was runner up in the grade one Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time out, though was not in the same league as winner Metier who misses this race to go straight to the Supreme at Cheltenham next month.

 

Annual Invictus makes his handicap debut here for Chris Gordon having won three novice hurdles on the bounce at Lingfield and twice at Plumpton. He’ s progressive but this is a big step up in class.

 

Highway One O Two is another Chris Gordon entry who’s failed to take to fences this season and was tailed off when reverting to hurdles behind Guard Your Dreams.

 

For Pleasure, like his trainer Alex Hales, is having a good season winning four of his six starts as a novice with the latest coming in a grade 2 at Cheltenham back in November. He got an easy lead that day and he will give anyone a run for their money as he likely to try and set the fractions here from the front. He could be interesting.

 

Lightly Squeeze will appreciate any more rain that falls as he is best in hock deep ground. He was bang in contention in last year’s renewal when falling at the last when an unconsidered 33/1 chance and will only be 2lb higher this time around. He was easy to back and in hindsight may not have stayed 2m 3 1/2 furlongs last time at Ascot however.

 

Galice Macolo ran a stormer when chasing home Benson at Sandown in December but flopped when taking on better company in the Tolworth Hurdle last time out. She has some 25 lengths to make up on Shakem Up’Arry on that run but she did fail to settle then so a bigger field and stronger pace will most likely suit Jane William’s mare.

 

Mack The Man went off only 15/2 for last years renewal and was close enough when being brought down at the final hurdle when in with every chance. He can race off of a 1lb lower mark today despite carrying a 5lb penalty for a prep win at Wincanton 31 days ago. His trainer Evan William’s is a big fan of this Flemensfirth gelding who can out run his odds.

 

Dan’s Le Vent is another Evan Williams entry. He’s run well both runs this season over 2m 4f and may just find the shorter trip against him.

 

Ballinkser is Evan Williams third entry and was placed 6th in the Greatwood in November only beaten 10 lengths. Following a break he ran in a ‘bumper for jumpers’ at Lingfield where he was virtually tailed off. That would be a big worry.

 

Crooks Peak was well behind Edwardstone at Market Rasen and is 4lb wrong here. He’s a total outsider and rightly so.

 

Gumball has been chasing this season and was well beaten off of a 3lb higher mark in this race when 33/1 last season and is easily overlooked.

 

Glory And Fortune ran Buzz to a head at Doncaster a year ago on good ground and is now 21lb better off. He hasn’t taken well to chasing in his two starts this season and re-appears here having had a wind op and and in a first time tongue tie. He has however been pulled out twice in his short career because the ground was too soft so he would be looking for a dry week.

 

Oakley ran 7th in this last year when staying on after the last to be beaten 6 lengths. He’s now 3lb lower and wasn’t totally disgraced at Ascot last time. He’ a big price but not entirely out of it.

 

Night Edition is David Pipe’s representative here. He is back on the same mark as when  runner up in last year’s Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. His only run since was when down the field in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot without showing enough to want to be involved here.

 

Summary:-

As always a very competitive handicap. I’m happy though to wait until the day as I’m pretty sure with a near maximum field there will be many firms offering enhanced place terms and no shock were we to see 7/1 the field!!.

 

My two against the field would be:-

Soaring Glory (below) 1 point each way

Mack The Man 1/2 point each way

 

Though a dry week and Glory And Fortune certainly comes into it.

 

1. 

[richard-westwood]

Wow.....what a fantastically competitive race ......

9.0 buzz  12/1 18/1 no value 

9.5 sky pirate (chase)

8.7 cadzand 5/1 20/1 no value 

8.6 for pleasure 20/1 20/1 value 

8.3 fred 20/1 33/1 good value 

8.2 Edward stone 20/1 10/1 no value 

7.9 guardyourdreams 22/1 14/1 no value 

Where do you even start .....dont know what to make of sky pirate....hes well hcapped on chase form but he would need to be at his very best over hurdles to win this and with age a negative too and no recent hurdle run I'll scrub him 

Applying trends leaves me with Edward stone   and the value bet fred so I'll wait til the weekend but currently I'll go ew on those 2