Racing Chat - Sunday 7th February

[The Brigadier]

If the forecast I’m seeing is correct it looks like we’re likely to lose the Musselburgh card tomorrow.

Which will be a real shame as there’s some excellent fare there.  I’m liking Historic Heart (1.55) and The Golden Rebel (2.25) at the Scottish track but to be honest with it in doubt I’ld rather not waste mine or your time previewing the meeting so it’s off to Ireland again for Day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown

I think we saw some champions on Saturday with the likes of Chacun Pour Soi, Honeysuckle, Energumene and especially Kilcruit all of whom must feature heavily at the Cheltenham Festival come March. There is the possibility of further high class performances on Sunday so here’s my thoughts.

 

1.10

The first of three maximum field handicaps where we need to shop around for the additional places that many firms are paying on these (Skybet are 7 places 1/5th odds on this race). The first place to start after Saturdays racing has to be with Willie Mullins who saddles six runners in this mares only handicap hurdle. Stable jockey Paul Townend has plumped for Dysart Diamond and this improving six year old looks the one to me. He’s been shunted up 11lb for his win here on Boxing Day when tongue tied for the first time, been merely pushed out on the run in. The extra 1/4 mile should be in her favour. There’s plenty of dangers including Mullin’s Lady Breffni, a 1/8 Punchestown winner three weeks ago. But I’ll keep it simple and stick with Mullins and Townend.

 

DYSART DIAMOND 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 6 places

 

1.40

Quilixios is the favourite here on the back of three emphatic hurdle wins, on debut in France for Francois Nicolle and twice in October for current handler Gordon Elliott. He’s not been seen for 99 days and at the short odds maybe worth taking on here. Youmdor  would have won but for falling at the final flight at Fairyhouse three weeks ago and will wear a first time hood today. He had previously sauntered up at Gowran Park and is undoubtably a smart gelding. And guess what? It’s Mullins and Townend again.

 

YOUMDOR 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

2.10

An excellent renewal of the Chantelle Pharma Novice Hurdle with a skinny favourite in Appreciate It (Mullins and Townend again!). He’s been supported all day Saturday into as short as 8/13 from 4/5 although you would think that the bookmakers have plenty of weekend accumulators running up from the short priced winners on Saturday hence the price cut. On form he’s going to be hard to beat but the race has a good each way feel to it so I’ll go with Irascible for the De Bromhead and Blackmore combo that struck with Honeysuckle. He’s only lightly raced and ran the favourite here to 9 lengths over course and distance at Christmas time. This will be only his 4th career outing compared to Appreciate It’s 9th (including his two point to points) so I expect him to get closer to the hot pot.

 

IRASCIBLE 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th odds 3 places Bet365

 

240

Another maximum field handicap, this one at 3 miles. JP McManus took both handicaps on day one and his Damaalisque is the one here having been well supported already. He has to carry a hefty 12lb penalty for his comfortable win at Navan 9 days ago over 2 miles 4 furlongs and I’m hoping that the step up to 3 miles here will unlock some more improvement. As earlier shop around for the best place terms.

 

DAMALISQUE 1 point each way @ 4/1 1/5th odds 6 places Paddy Power

 

310

Monkfish is dropping in trip here but last years Albert Bartlett winner looks another potential superstar  from the Willie Mullins camp having won his last five starts. He’s a top priced 8/11 chance and obviously the most likely winner but from a punting angle I’m happy to back one against him each way (don’t expect any additional places on this one mind!). Andy Dufresne (named after the character in the excellent film Shawshank Redemption) has done little wrong in his career, winning 5 of his 7 career starts including both his chases. He’s stepping up half a mile today and that may suit and he looks overpriced at around 11/1. Mark Walsh rides for Gordon Elliott.

 

ANDY DUFRESNE 1 point each way @ 11/1 Bet365 1/5th odds 3 places

 

340

The Irish Gold Cup is a cracker this year with four of the five  participants having run against each other in the Savills Cup over course and distance at Christmas time. Kemboy came out the best finishing 1 1/2 lengths ahead of stable companion Melon with Delta Work unseating at the 9th and favourite that day Minnelli Indo falling at the 8th. That was an uncharacteristic error from the latter and having looked so impressive in his two previous starts this season at Wexford and Navan I’m happy enough to give him a chance to prove he’s  up to this and a win will put him bang in the picture for Cheltenham in March.

 

MINELLO INDO 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

410

A 2m 5f handicap chase which looks wide open. It’s 6/1 the field currently.

Minella Times can cap a stellar weekend for trainer Henry De Bromhead and jockey Rachael Blackmore. He ran a stormer in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at this track over 3 furlongs further over Christmas when finishing runner up to Castlebawn West with Farclas 5 1/2 lengths back in third. He’s been raised 4lb for that but can still run well here.

 

MINELLA TIMES 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th odds 5 places William Hills

 

440

The final race of an absorbing two days is the mares only bumper with Willie Mullin’s five runners taking on just six rivals! The well backed favourite is Brandy Love who will be ridden by Patrick Mullins. She was a well backed odds on chance on her rules debut (she had already won a maiden point by 8 lengths), sauntering home for a easy 8 length success. But it’s her stable companion Take Tea that I’m interested in. Owned by JP McManus and ridden by top amateur Derek O’Connor she’s just has the one outing when we’ll backed and winning easily at Naas in December from Feddans (who has won since and re-opposes here). She’s well related being a half sister to the smart Quel Esprit.

 

TAKE TEA 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power

 

 

 

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[Tedthewolf]

Three races in Ireland for me today.

1.10 HEAVEN HELP US is thrown back of hurdles and looks to me to have a cracking e/w shout off current mark  got a  bit of 33's but only 4 places  skybet  are paying 7 place so  also  have a bit in there at 22/1 

2.40 THE JAM MAN looks a solid e/w  bet  at 10/1 with skybet paying 7places. Good performer  at both chase & hurdles races no reason can't be in the mix here.

4.10 I like some of the mullins horses in this e/w with corals bog 5places LIVELOVELAUGH 33/1 & BLAZER 28/1  both have gone well in the race in previous years.

Best of luck to all punters.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Tedthewolf