The Brigadier Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This Sunday, Boxing Day, sees Wale's Premier jumps race take place at Chepstow with no paying customers. One thing’s for sure the ground there will be close to un-raceable so 3m 6f on bottomless ground we’re going to need a true out and out stayer. The weights are headed by Paul Nicholl’s Yala Enki who ran third in this last year to Potters Corner who unfortunately is not back to defend his crown. He’s 4lb higher now and has hardly had the ideal prep in falling at the first in the Becher Chase at Aintree. Nicholls has also left in Truckers Lodge who was runner up last season on only his third ever chase start. He went on to win the Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f on heavy ground so I think it’s safe to say he’ll stay. He’s a player although he is 16lb higher than last season when he carried 10-2 whilst this year he’s likely to shoulder 11-8. David Pipe’s is likely to run his 8 year old Ramses De Teillee. He’s a consistent sort over both fences and hurdles but his latest effort in the Becher Chase was a poor one where he didn’t jump a fence and you’ld have to be very forgiving to fancy him too much. Pipe also has 24 length Becher Chase victor Vieux Lion Rouge here. He’s gone up 12lb for that and with just a 4lb penalty he’s 8lb well in. The big question with him is can he re-produce his excellent National form around a park track? I’m not entirely sure. Another who flopped over the National fences last time is Lord Du Mesnil, this time in the Grand Sefton over an inadequate 2m 5f (dropped 2lb for that run but has to run off of old mark here). He stays very well as shown when runner up in last season’s NH Chase. Irish challenger Moyhenna has to prove his stamina and as it stands at the moment his participation has to be in doubt with the travel embargo. Venetia Williams is one of the first trainers you think of when you analyse a long distance chase in the mud and she has two entered. Cloudy Glen who was hit with a hefty 11lb rise for a cheeky 13 length win in the Southern National at Fontwell last month but has been soundly beaten at Sandown since off of his new mark and one wonders if the handicapper has hold of him now. Her other runner, Didero Vallis is also entered at Wetherby on Boxing Day in the Rowland Meyrick, a race he ran 2nd in last season so his participation is also in doubt at this stage. Tom George’s Springfield Fox is a very interesting runner who has only had 7 rules runs (10 if you include his 3 wins between the flags). The very easy winner of two novice handicap chases earlier in the year in heavy ground he has been hammered by the handicapper since but you do get the feeling he’s been trained for this following a 2nd in a novice hurdle here 3 weeks ago. Without doubt one for the short list. The Two Amigos was a credible 5th in this last season and returns on the same mark. He was runner up to the favourite for this year’s re-newal in the Welsh National trial run over 6f shorter than the actual race itself three weeks ago here. He’s 4lb better off with Secret Reprieve but that may not be enough to bridge the gap. Evan William’s Secret Reprieve won the Trial here 3 weeks ago as just mentioned and picks up a 4lb penalty but the handicapper feels that win warranted a 12lb hike in the weights so he’s effectively 8lb well in. He’s obviously a big player and although he should stay he has yet to race beyond 3m in his short career (this is only his 9th start). He’s a worthy favourite. Williams also has Prime Venture in the race who was 4th last year and only broke his duck over fences in a 3 runner novices handicap chase at Sedgefield in November following 12 previous attempts. Raised 5lb for that he’s now 4lb higher than his placing last season. Lucinda Russell’s Big River has some smart back form at long trips in the mud but was well beaten on his re-appearance and doesn’t really appeal to me whilst rank outsider Alminar is 15lb wrong at the weights and is impossible to fancy, even for a place. Dominateur has a good record at this track (2311) and Oliver Sherwood’s 7 year old is lightly raced over fences. His only run beyond 3m was a well beaten 7th (beaten 46l) in the Midland National (behind Truckers Tavern) so has to prove his stamina. Harry Fry has his team in fine shape (5 wins from his last 16 runs at 31%) and runs Captain Drake. He will have no stamina issues as he was 12l runner up to Truckers Tavern in last season’s Midlands National over 4m2f and can re-oppose on a stone better terms. He doesn’t appear to be in the same form this season mind. Rebecca Curtis’s Scottish National winner of 2018 Joe Farrell is back on the same mark but has shown nothing in three runs this season and may be being prepped for the Scottish version again next season. Colin Tizzard has a good record in this race winning it with classy types Native River and Elegant Escape in the last 4 years and relies upon the aptly named Christmas In April, a consistent stayer who likes the mud. He was last seen when chasing home Cloudy Dream in the Southern National at Fontwell in November. He’s 12lb better off for 13l on that run and also comes into the equation. Tom Symonds is having his best ever season and his Bobo Mac was third in the Trial three weeks ago, his first since wind surgery, he has a bit to find on that run although the longer trip should suit. Summary:- Secret Reprieve is the right favourite coming here on the back of winning the trial over 2m 7f 22 days ago and now officially 8lb well in. He should stay but at the likely odds I’ld rather look elsewhere. Truckers Lodge stays for ever and ran so well in this last season that I can see him running well again the only issue is the fact he’s so much higher in the weights this time around. It takes a near Gold Cup horse to carry such a weight to victory like Synchronised (11-6) or Native River (11-12) and I don’t really see him as that class though he can hit the frame. Vieux Lion Rouge is actually as well in (8lb) as Secret Reprieve but four times the price. I’m not entirely sure we can equate the National fences form to these at Chepstow though it wouldn’t be a shock were he to run well. The one I want to be with though is Tom George’s (below) 7 year old the lightly raced Springfield Fox who was last seen running on Welsh National Trial day but not in the trial but in the novice hurdle on the card. An ideal prep you would of thought. He likes to be prominent and conditions look ideal. Trainer Tom George is struggling for winners at present but his team are running well enough not to be concerned. SPRINGFIELD FOX 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5- Paddy Power Villa Chris and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Had a look at this race earlier on today, and the two that jump out to me are The Two Amigos, and Christmas In April. Truckers Lodge is another I like but I feel he may be vulnerable carrying 11’8 and being 14Ibs higher than his last win. No doubt he’ll stay well, but I’m going to be on the other two mentioned who are carrying a nice weight and tick a lot of boxes. The Two Amigos 14/1 ew Christmas In April 11/1 ew The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I've rated this The hollow ginge 335 Christmas in April 331 Dominateur 328 One that currently stands out is the hollow ginge ....hes been backed at all rates from 50/1 into as low as 14/1 in recent weeks ...theres still some 20s left with betfred so I'll take that for now ....and wait on the other 2 until confirmed The hollow ginge 10pt ew 20/1 betfred The Brigadier, Villa Chris and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) As I said I was looking into this race yesterday. There’s some strong trends in this race, but what I also looked at and read was that it’s only been the last few years where some of your classy horses have started taking part on a regular basis which could give you a false sense of security regarding the trends, but I’m not sure how true that statement is regarding the usual quality of horse that runs in this race. As there’s much work needed to be done to get my ratings up to scratch, I’ve found this race and races of this nature in particular quite hard to rate up with what I feel is an accurate picture. My ratings read like this anyway.... Truckers Lodge 23.25 Vieux Lion Rouge 19.30 Yala Enki 15.27 Two Amigos 15.7 Ramses De Teillee 14:54 Christmas In April 14 Notice the dilemma I have? The top 3 is made up of the top two best rated horses going off official ratings. I rated up the bet fair exchange hurdle last week and dismissed Not So Sleepy from the race based on age, and prize money won even though he was several points clear of the rest I felt it wasn’t an accurate picture of the race to include him in the ratings. He won , so I’m now reluctant to dismiss Truckers Lodge even though he has a few Xs next to his name regarding trends, but he’s obviously a talented horse and is yet to prove if he cant handle his current mark. What I like about Christmas In April and The Two Amigos is that they score fairly high in the ratings and they fit the trends of a winning horse in this race. I include prize money won /race ratio in my ratings and by doing that Truckers Lodge gained a few extra points, like Not So Sleepy did in his race. That’s why some races I feel like I’m not getting an accurate picture of a race. In the same breath I think prize money won/race ratio can give you a good indication of how good a horse is. Truckers Lodge scores high regarding other points I give horses, so I think he’ll be up there, but will be vulnerable with his weight/mark like Yala Enki will be, and that’s where I feel my two selections will come into play . Edited December 22, 2020 by Villa Chris The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I'll be looking down the weights, every pound will count in the conditions! The Brigadier and Tedthewolf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, yossa6133 said: I'll be looking down the weights, every pound will count in the conditions! wouldn't be a big price the meetings abandoned with the forecast i've just seen ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 hours ago, The Brigadier said: wouldn't be a big price the meetings abandoned with the forecast i've just seen ? Yeah weve been lucky last couple years ...overdue a frosted or rained off ? The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, Villa Chris said: As I said I was looking into this race yesterday. There’s some strong trends in this race, but what I also looked at and read was that it’s only been the last few years where some of your classy horses have started taking part on a regular basis which could give you a false sense of security regarding the trends, but I’m not sure how true that statement is regarding the usual quality of horse that runs in this race. As there’s much work needed to be done to get my ratings up to scratch, I’ve found this race and races of this nature in particular quite hard to rate up with what I feel is an accurate picture. My ratings read like this anyway.... Truckers Lodge 23.25 Vieux Lion Rouge 19.30 Yala Enki 15.27 Two Amigos 15.7 Ramses De Teillee 14:54 Christmas In April 14 Notice the dilemma I have? The top 3 is made up of the top two best rated horses going off official ratings. I rated up the bet fair exchange hurdle last week and dismissed Not So Sleepy from the race based on age, and prize money won even though he was several points clear of the rest I felt it wasn’t an accurate picture of the race to include him in the ratings. He won , so I’m now reluctant to dismiss Truckers Lodge even though he has a few Xs next to his name regarding trends, but he’s obviously a talented horse and is yet to prove if he cant handle his current mark. What I like about Christmas In April and The Two Amigos is that they score fairly high in the ratings and they fit the trends of a winning horse in this race. I include prize money won /race ratio in my ratings and by doing that Truckers Lodge gained a few extra points, like Not So Sleepy did in his race. That’s why some races I feel like I’m not getting an accurate picture of a race. In the same breath I think prize money won/race ratio can give you a good indication of how good a horse is. Truckers Lodge scores high regarding other points I give horses, so I think he’ll be up there, but will be vulnerable with his weight/mark like Yala Enki will be, and that’s where I feel my two selections will come into play . You will always rate races and are left scratching your head why certain horses won ...especially if big prices because they usually have form from 6 mo thes ago and suddenly bounce back to form ......I do exactly that ....I rate the race then look at the typical winner ....so if the last 15 winners were below 11st I'll scrub all those above ...unless there is a horse with a really strong rating ...I.e if my top rated was 5 pts clear carrying 11st 2lb....I'd leave him in and make a decision later once I have my shortlist ....with this race on soft ground it's going to favour the low weights for certain Edited December 22, 2020 by richard-westwood The Brigadier and Villa Chris 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: You will always rate races and are left scratching your head why certain horses won ...especially if big prices because they usually have form from 6 mo thes ago and suddenly bounce back to form ......I do exactly that ....I rate the race then look at the typical winner ....so if the last 15 winners were below 11st I'll scrub all those above ...unless there is a horse with a really strong rating ...I.e if my top rated was 5 pts clear carrying 11st 2lb....I'd leave him in and make a decision later once I have my shortlist ....with this race on soft ground it's going to favour the low weights for certain Just had a look through the past winners and no horse in years and years, if at all has ever won the race carrying 11 stone or more on heavy, and there’s been 17 winners overall carrying 11 or more. Edited December 22, 2020 by Villa Chris Tedthewolf and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Punt Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Am always on the look out for a antepost bet and cast my eyes over this a while ago, Only 2 seemed to be overpriced at the time considering the possible going conditions on the day. Springfield Fox 12/1 at the time but shortened since and Dominateur 16/1 and hasnt really moved from there. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 9:53 PM, richard-westwood said: I've rated this The hollow ginge 335 Christmas in April 331 Dominateur 328 One that currently stands out is the hollow ginge ....hes been backed at all rates from 50/1 into as low as 14/1 in recent weeks ...theres still some 20s left with betfred so I'll take that for now ....and wait on the other 2 until confirmed The hollow ginge 10pt ew 20/1 betfred Adding Christmas in april 10/1 and dominateur 16/1 ...10pt wins both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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