Racing Chat - Saturday 19th Dec

[The Brigadier]

Very soft ground is the call for the two terrestrial TV meetings on Saturday and here’s a skip through those races.

 

Ascot 1.50 2m 3f Handicap Chase 

Tom Symonds is having a terrific season and his string remain in excellent form. He saddles Saint De Vassy here who was impressive when winning at Exeter a month ago by 11 lengths. The handicapper has stuck him up 10lb for that win but the way he won makes me think he can defy that new mark. Drumcliff has a good record at this track and looks interesting with trainer Harry Fry’s sister in law Annie O’Connor in the plate. Early De Lemo is one of two Gary Moore runners and can make his presence felt after being touched off by a stable mate last time. 

SAINT DE VASSY 1 point each way  @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4

 

Haydock 2.05 2m 3f Handicap Hurdle 

War Lord has been raised 7lb for his course and distance win 4 weeks ago and can confirm the form here with Our Power who finished some 3 ¼ lengths back in third and is now 6lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between them but I thought Colin Tizzard’s 5 year old won decisively enough. The Last Day is interesting as he can race here off of a 8lb lower mark over hurdles than his smart chase form but he does have an absence to overcome. 

WAR LORD 1 point win @ 10/3 william hill

 

Ascot 2.25 3m 1/2f Long Distance Walk Hurdle 

There shouldn’t be much between Thyme Hill and Paisley Park strictly on their Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle run at Newbury three weeks ago but Philip Hobb’s Thyne Hill is two year’s younger and this is only his 9^th ever contest -he may still be improving and I’ll take him to confirm the form on slightly worse terms. Main Fact did us a favour when winning at Haydock a month ago and this represents a step up in grade. He’s a remarkable horse who’s won his last 9 races (jumps and flat) and shouldn’t be totally dismissed. The mare Roksana gets a valuable 7lb mares allowance and her 3m form gives her a chance as well. A cracker of a race and though I have every respect for Main Fact I’m with Thyne Hill. 

THYNE HILL 2 points win 2/1 bet365

 

Haydock 2.40 3m 1 1/2f Handicap Chase 

The front two in the betting were both impressive last time but both have hefty rise's to overcome and I’ll be looking further down the handicap for a bet in this race.

Sojourn is up 11lb for his easy Carlisle win whilst Hill Sixteen is up 15lb for his last ditch victory over hurdles at Newbury from Lil Rockerfeller. Roll Again and Crixus’s Escape also have rises of 6lb to overcome and it’s the bottom weight Enqarde that takes my eye. Over from France he’s only had two runs for Dr Richard Newland, a 2^nd in a Ascot handicap hurdle and an easy win at Newcastle over 2m 6f. For a 6 year old he’s quite experienced having been campaigned in France and this is his 19th race .He’s had 10 runs over fences in France. Conditional jockey Cillin Leonard’s, who’s ridden him on both starts over here, claim of 7lb brings his weight down to 10-2 which must be a bonus in such sapping conditions as he’ll be getting chunks of weight from the principals. 

ENQARDE 1 point each way @ 15/2 william hill 1/5 1-2-3

 

Ascot 3.00 3m Handicap Chase 

A competitive race where the key form race is the Ladbokes Trophy at Newbury from three weeks ago. The Conditional was 3^rd, Beware The Bear 5^th, Ardlethen 6^th , Mister Malarkey unseated when looking beaten and Regal Encore pulled up.

The Conditional must go well here and has surprisingly been dropped a pound. However it’s Antony Honeyball’s Regal Encore that I’ll be backing each way. He comes alive at the Berkshire track and his form figures here are P10P132131 which includes this race in 2016 and 2019. 

REGAL ENCORE 1 point each way @ 7/1 william hill 1/5 1-2-3

 

Ascot 3.35 1m 7 1/2f Betfair Exchange Trophy (handicap hurdle) 

I previewed this in the week and am still sweet on Harry Fry’s Lightly Squeeze who has conditions to suit, has had a wind op (and wears a tongue tie) since we last saw him (has a big pull with favourite Buzz) and his trainer is in good form with an Exeter double on Thursday. Obviously there are many dangers including the aforementioned Buzz who looked very good over course and distance a month ago but has been hit by a 11lb rise. Benson also impressed when winning over the same course and distance a fortnight ago but he too has been raised 10lb. It would be no shock if either of them two were to win again. Harambe is the other runner I’ll be backing small ew at the enhanced place terms. He looks quite attractively handicapped despite crashing out at the last in two big handicaps on his last two runs when bang there with a chance.

 

LIGHTLY SQUEEZE (pictured below) (advised on Monday) 1 point each way @ 20/1 1-4 1-2-3-4

HARAMBE ½ point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6

 

 

[Villa Chris]

1.50 Ascot, Drumcliff 9/1

Bit up and down but his two visits to this track was a win over CD and also a very good third beaten 3 lengths by the smart Espoir De Guye, last time out. Shouldn’t mind the softer conditions either. On a very workable mark with 5Ibs claimer on board . 
 

2.40 Haydock , Sojourn 7/2

Up 11Ibs for his 15 length win last time out, but seems very progressive and is 2/2 on heavy . A lot to like about him and I think he’ll go close in a strong race. 
 

3.00 Ascot , Regal Encore 8/1

Old boy who has a bit more to do if he wants to repeat last years win in this race, but has everything in his favour with ground/distance/course. Runs off 150 but is still capable of pulling it off. 
 

3.35 Ascot , Malaya 10/1/ Master Debonair 25/1 ew

Very competitive race but Malaya  enjoys it here with figures of 14622. Runs well on soft but not sure she’ll want it too heavy, which brings me to Master Debonair who I think is over priced. Multi CD winner and also a winner on heavy over CD this time last year. Disappointing last time out, but may have needed the run in which was a very strong race on good ground running off 149. Runs off 147 here with a claimer taking off another useful 7Ibs .