Racing Chat - Friday 11th Dec.

[The Brigadier]

Here’s a look at the bumper card for Cheltenham on Friday.

The ground is currently good to soft but with rain around it could easily ease to soft come race day – certainly not a meeting for fast ground horses! 

11.30 2m 1f Novice Hurdle 

Trappy affair with all bar possibly the rank outsider Butte Montana having claims. David Pipe is having a decent season and I like the look of his Make Me A Believer who’s had a wind operation since we last saw him, that was at Lingfield when he was sandwiched between Bear Ghylls and Take Your Time who have both won since.

Any News and Lucky One both impressed when winning last time and are big threats. 

MAKE ME A BELIEVER 1 point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

12.05 3m1 1/2f Novices Chase 

Although still a maiden following 6 efforts over fences Mick Channon’s Hold That Note could be the answer here. He’s up against three previous winners in Happygolucky, L’Air Du Vent and The Mighty Don who all have to carry penalties. Hold The Note has kept good company and if back to his 3^rd in last season’s Festival Novices’ Handicap Chase to useful sorts Imperial Aura and Galvin in a first time visor will run a big race. 

HOLD THE NOTE 1 point win @ 7/2 william hill

 

12.40 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle 

A tough handicap with plenty having chances. Bottom weight Lively Citizen won here earlier in the season (2^nd bolted up since) at 33/1 and is now 4lb higher. He has claims for local trainer DJ Jeffreys. Breffinboy has won 4 of his last 5 outings for Johnny Farrelly but has been re-assessed now and has to race off of a 6lb higher mark than his last win. Tegerek has shown decent form here this season winning at the October meeting and then a credible 3^rd on softer ground at the Paddy Power meeting. Back in 6^th at the October win was Fergal O’Brien’s Benny’s Bridge and can re-oppose now on a stone better terms for 21 1/2l. This is a horse whose 2 from 4 here and went off as short as 9/2 for last season’s Greatwood Hurdle. He’ll do for me. 

BENNYS BRIDGE 1 point each way @ 6/1 william hill 

 

1.15 2m 4f Mares Handicap Chase 

Yet again open handicap with plenty in with a shout. The key piece of form in my eyes is the Arian victory at Warwick 23 days ago. Arian beat Nikap who re-opposes on 5lb better terms for 2 lengths and they’re shouldn’t be much between them as there isn’t in the betting with the former a 5/1 poke and the latter generally 13/2. I’m interested in the third that day Martila who travelled like the best horse ending up beaten 2 1/4l by Arian and a further head by Nikap. She has a 6lb and 1lb pull with that pair and is around the 12/1 mark which looks too big to me. Pauline Robson trains up in Northumberland and wouldn’t be sending her down for the fresh air. She looks decent each way value to me. 

MARTILA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

1.50 2m 4f Peterborough Chase 

The BHA have done well to re-schedule this following Huntingdon’s abandonment last Sunday and they’ve been rewarded with a good 8 runner field. The top 3 Bun Doran, Top Notch (may need this run?) and Mister Fisher (wouldn’t want any more rain) all have to carry penalties and with Dolos possibly better at the minimum trip and Clondaw Castle not certain to be suited by the track (form figures of 040 here although the 4^th was in the JLT) I’m happy to go with Venetia Williams’ Fanion D’Estruval who ran a blinder when 2^nd to Magic Saint under top weight in a handicap at the Paddy Power meeting. 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 1 point each way @ 11/2 betvictor

 

2.25 3m2f Handicap Chase 

Black Corton looked well beat when crashing out at Ascot last time and is overlooked here despite his good course record of 115. West Approach has plenty of ability but is certainly not one you can trust in a finish. Storm Controls victory here 27 days ago has not worked out and this looks destined to go to the Irish challenger Court Maid trained by Thomas Mullins. She routed her field when winning the 20 runner Porterstown Handicap at Fairyhouse by 20l. She’s improving rapidly and can win again. The biggest danger maybe Venetia’s Commodore who ran well on his re-appearance at Haydock but has been raised 6lb for that. 

COURT MAID 2 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

3.00 3m6f Cross Country Handicap Chase 

No Easyland so the weights have been raised 21lb which to me is highly significant. Favourite is likely to be Jessie Harrington’s Neverushacon who sluished up at Punchestown in one of their banks races and is the one to beat for sure with the only thing I don’t like about him is his trainer has gone to print saying hes a good ground horse so any rain wouldn' be ideal.. Kingswell Theatre had Beau Du Brizas 5 lengths back at the last meeting and on 5lb worse terms there really shouldn’t be anything between them  (Vivas and Little Bruce held in behind that day).  The weight rise has bough De Forgotten One into a basement weight of 10-1 and will be ridden Felix De Giles who based in France has plenty of experience over these type of fences He rode him for trainer Richard Hobson (you can watch the race on Hobson’s twitter feed) when winning at Compiegne last month over a shorter trip but he appeals as a lightly raced (he’s only six) horse who could take to these fences. 

DE FORGOTTEN ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 betvictor 

 

3.35 3m Handicap Hurdle 

Another competitive handicap to finish the card off but I do fancy one lurking right down the bottom here.Unowhatimeanharry rolled back the years when winning at Aintree on his re-appearance by 1 1/4l from Mohaayed (2lb better off now).On The Blind Side won a similar handicap at the last meeting but has been shunted up 5lb now. Dell’Arca blew out very quickly at Newbury and maybe his winning run has come to an end for now.  But it’s Fergal O’Brien’s Goodbye Dancer that has caught my eye here. I fancied him last time out at the October Showcase meeting but he was easy to back (8/1 out to 20/1) and was 10 lengths detached at the first hurdle and stayed there for most of the way. A nice pipe opener for tomorrow I think, a race he won last season off of a 1lb lower mark landing a bit of a touch as well. To be fair to his October run the ground wouldn’t have been soft enough for him and with rain forecast and Paddy Brennan riding at his minimum weight is the days nap for me. 

GOODBYE DANCER (below) 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 

 

[Villa Chris]

 

The start of a couple of days of racing at Cheltenham. I’ve only looked at the one race so far “ The Peterborough Chase”. I have Top Notch clear by a few points, which is no surprise as he’s a real classy horse. I would prefer him to be going right handed though, which I think he’s slightly better at. He’s won going left handed a few times , so it’s not a big concern, and I don’t think he’ll need a career best to win this anyway. It’s also first run back after a lengthy break.  He runs off 158 which is a bit below what he’s used to running off over fences. He’s won off 162 and 161 in recent times  so I think he’s on a fair mark. 
 

I’ve looked through the card and i think the biggest threat to him will be Ben Doran who looks overpriced at 20/1.