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Racing Chat - Monday 16th November


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All prices Bet365:

1.30 Leicester - 1pt e/w Agent Valdez @ 9/1

This one has had quite a few excuses since winning an Irish point including when running on soft ground which seems to not suit as well as a sounder surface based on his results. Best efforts have come on top of the ground and was a good 2nd over hurdles behind a well handicapped horse two starts back. Shaped as if in need of the run last time and now goes chasing with conditions to suit. Is a half brother to decent chaser Bandsman and if jumping, can go well today.

2.10 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Stoney Lane @ 8/1

Richard Whittaker's runner is coming down the weights and I think this is the most reasonable assignment he's faced for a while. Won at Wetherby in May 2019 over 7f but since then has suffered from being burdened with marks in the 70s and although placed a couple of times in handicaps off those marks, couldn't get another win. Struggled a bit earlier this year but those runs were in much better races than this and also ran over 1m2f on soft ground which was never going to see him in good light. Shaped okay the last twice over a mile on the all-weather but I think 7f is as far as he wants to go and he's run well on all starts on artificial surfaces. This is easier, conditions suit and I think he can go well.

2.40 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Renbawi @ 13/2

The favourite is respected but has a speedy pedigree and I won't be getting involved over 7f on debut at a short price. Mark Johnston's runner, however, is nicely bred and both of this one's siblings are smart. Is a full brother to 86-rated Global Hero who won on debut and all of this one's relatives went well first time out. Has a wide draw to contend with but should be decent on paper, capable early on in his career and will certainly stay the trip no problem so looks a healthy price.

2.50 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Ding Ding @ 10/1

Was out of form when last seen but has plenty of back form to give him a big chance in this contest and encouragingly has run several good races first time out. Runs this track under these conditions very well and is down the weights now in a fairly poor contest so if in better heart since being freshened up, can go well at a double figure price.

3.00 Leicester - 2pts win Bandsman @ 11/2

And as if by magic, Bandsman also runs on the card and I think has a big chance. Couldn't quite benefit from the step down in class last time but it came on soft ground and this one is best on a sound surface. This is probably the easiest race he's competed in recently and with conditions to suit, can go close if his jumping holds up (can be a bit low at times).

4.10 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Desert Cat @ 12/1

Wide draw and weak in the market but will have a small go on Hughie Morrison's charge who ran well here on debut over 7f and wasn't disgraced last time out at Chelmsford from off the pace - proved tricky making ground up there and he wasn't far behind a couple of horses now rated in the high 60s. Desert Cat goes off a mere 54 on handicap debut today and given it's now a double figure price, will chance.

4.40 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Morisco @ 5/1

I really fancy this one today having shaped well from off the speed at Chelmsford when last seen - always difficult coming from behind at that venue and he did as well as he could have, staying on into 4th late in the day. This track will suit his closing style better and has had plenty of excuses this season having run on ground too soft for him or in group company. The Dascombe yard have also struggled to fire this year but are finally hitting their stride now and if getting the breaks, this one should be bang there at the finish. 

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