Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

[Mica98]

 

 

I will use an example of a horse in the 3:10 tomorrow at Nottingham- Lunar Jet

 

Tomorrow he is up 1lb going off at an OR of 81, in his last race he was 80

 

The weight he carried is 9st 8lb and will be the exact same tomorrow

 

i know 1lb rating is minimal as an example but even if it was 3 or 4lbs but he was still running in the same class how can this make a difference to the horse? I understand when they go up a rating and essentially promote themselves to a stronger class it’s going to be harder, but I can’t see how going up 1 or 2lbs in rating can have any negative effect on a horse remaining in the same class.

 

In his race tomorrow he is racing horses between 70 OR at worst and 85 OR at best

 

Whereas in his last race it was 79 OR at worst and 86 OR at best, so was actually a more competitive race than the one it’s in tomorrow maybe.

 

can anyone help explain why I may be incorrect on this and why it could possibly have a negative effect? I am trying to learn racing cards in more detail than just C&D, ground etc

 

thanks

[Trotter]

Sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the position !

All I might say is that the horse has gone up 1lb for finishing second and was beaten 2 lengths

If you're just looking at the handicap mark you could say that he was 4 lbs too high to be able to win last time and now it's even harder because he might now be 5lbs too high to win

Again just looking at the handicap and not the other factors, like the ground, distance, etc ......... his last win was off 91 in May 2019 since when he's been up to 95 and then all the way down to 80 without winning for 15 races

To me that looks like a horse in long term decline and he might not win again until his handicap falls far enough to reflect his current ability ....... so obviously staying on the same mark or going back up again whilst he's not winning could be delaying the point at which his mark falls to a winning one

That's just looking at handicap mark ........ it could be that the trip, ground, yard form etc are perfect for him today and he'll win regardless of a few pounds here or there. And of course all the other horses might be even worse handicapped than him so he might win by default

 

 

[Mica98]

55 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the position !

All I might say is that the horse has gone up 1lb for finishing second and was beaten 2 lengths

If you're just looking at the handicap mark you could say that he was 4 lbs too high to be able to win last time and now it's even harder because he might now be 5lbs too high to win

Again just looking at the handicap and not the other factors, like the ground, distance, etc ......... his last win was off 91 in May 2019 since when he's been up to 95 and then all the way down to 80 without winning for 15 races

To me that looks like a horse in long term decline and he might not win again until his handicap falls far enough to reflect his current ability ....... so obviously staying on the same mark or going back up again whilst he's not winning could be delaying the point at which his mark falls to a winning one

That's just looking at handicap mark ........ it could be that the trip, ground, yard form etc are perfect for him today and he'll win regardless of a few pounds here or there. And of course all the other horses might be even worse handicapped than him so he might win by default

 

 

Thanks for the response, 

To be clear solely looking at the handicap, him being 4lbs too high to be able to win last time and now 5lbs too high, the thing i struggle to grasp is if the race today is just as competitive as the last one how the rating makes a difference.

I understand when the horse receives a penalty and has to carry more physical weight, that this is going to be a severe disadvantage, but in the scenario I am looking at above he isn't carrying any extra weight, the horses he is running against aren't of a higher standard.

 

So why would this race be even more difficult for him to win than his last race? (Ignoring distance, ground etc)

 

[Trotter]

16 minutes ago, Mica98 said:

So why would this race be even more difficult for him to win than his last race? (Ignoring distance, ground etc)

 

Well just because he's a pound higher relative to this group of horses than he would have been a week ago before he went up a pound ........... in other words if he could run in this race off 80 and all the other horses stayed at the same handicap mark as they are today he would have a better chance than running in this race off 81 because he would have a pound less weight to carry

it's not the absolute weight that matters ...... it's the weight relative to the other runners

So amongst all the horses rated around 80 that he will meet in handicaps he's now running off a pound higher relative to all of them ...... though of course they will all be going up and down the handicap as well

[Mica98]

11 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Well just because he's a pound higher relative to this group of horses than he would have been a week ago before he went up a pound ........... in other words if he could run in this race off 80 and all the other horses stayed at the same handicap mark as they are today

it's not the absolute weight that matters ...... it's the weight relative to the other runners

So amongst all the horses rated around 80 that he will meet in handicaps he's now running off a pound higher relative to all of them ...... though of course they will all be going up and down the handicap as well

Ahhh, I may be very close to grasping it finally lol

So even though he's carrying the exact same weight physically as his last race, because of his mark going up 1lb the other horses in the race's weights are all adjusted accordingly around each other, thank you

[Trotter]

20 hours ago, Mica98 said:

Ahhh, I may be very close to grasping it finally lol

So even though he's carrying the exact same weight physically as his last race, because of his mark going up 1lb the other horses in the race's weights are all adjusted accordingly around each other, thank you

Personally I don't take much notice, if any, of absolute weight carried at all ........ if I'm looking at a handicap I'm only looking at handicap marks

The question you're asking is .......

If a horse's mark is going up then it's more difficult to beat horses who's mark isn't going up because he's carrying more weight relative to them than he was last time ....... you're asking yourself whether he's improving enough that he'll still beat them even with an extra amount of weight compared to them, By 'them' I mean the generality of all horses running in that grade

If a horse's mark is going down it's because he's not been winning ...... at some point his mark will fall to a level at which he can win against the horses with marks around the mark he's fallen to. Usually this is because his mark falls to a level where he can enter lower class races and run against worse horses. 

usual caveat .... handicap mark is only one of the factors you need to look at. A badly handicapped horse can still win if the conditions are all in his favour compared to the other runners or if the other runners are even worse handicapped than he is. 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

I always held the view that the higher the weight the better because it indicated a better class of horse. Strike rates back this up, for NH horses the strike rate for horses with a weight higher than 10st12 is 12.4%, for those lower or equal to 10st12 it is 8.7%.

However as always in horse racing it pays to go against the crowd, the lower weighted horses are actually more profitable, with an AE of 1.03.

[Villa Chris]

Never take notice of weight carried unless in the big handicaps where trends  indicate that a certain weight will struggle. Always look at the mark which is far more important. 

[MCLARKE]

Do you have any data to support this ?

[richard-westwood]

I have had experience with this in the past when I used to compile speed ratings ....if a horse stays in same grade but drops in physical weight carried today sometimes the horse can achieve a better speed rating due to the fact it has less physical weight slowing.....not every time but I've seen horses achieve say 90 off 9st 5 in class 2 ....carry 8-12 in more competitive class 2 and speed has increased to 93 on next run....I have seen this many times so weight carried does have a subtle effect imo but that's common sense if you think about it ....you have to take it in context with hcap mark too though .....

Likewise the reverse ....a horse carrying a light weight ....say 8st 5 in a big hcap can achieve a 93 speed rating .....then come out a week later in same grade carrying 9st 2 and produce a 88  ....it definately happens but it makes sense if you think about it 

Edited October 10, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you have any data to support this ?

No, just my opinion and what I look at. Never look at the weight anymore apart from if the trends in the big handicaps say for example 15/18 winners carried 11.3 or less.  A horses mark imo is a more productive way to look at things especially older horses. It’s took me a few years to get the hang of all the information that’s provided to us punters, but I can confidently look at a race card now and rule out horses. Obviously it doesn’t mean I can look at a race card and pick the winner, because that’s harder to predict. I tend not to watch previous races either. Just look at the stats provided online and read write ups of that previous races. 

[Villa Chris]

Also not to say an older horse can’t defy a career high mark. If it’s good enough it’s good enough it’s as simple as that. The stats are there and we have to decide what’s important. For example Ballyoptic is on a career high mark today. He’s 10 years old. Had a cracking year last year. I think he still retains plenty of class in this race to defy a career high mark. 

[Villa Chris]

Also regarding weight. I found this the other month . Returns a nice profit. Not something I use. 
 

 

Topweights System

 

A profitable system which involves betting to win on topweights in all NH handicap races run over a trip of less than 3 miles on a tight track (for a list of tight tracks please refer to the NH Track Matrix). Qualifying weights include penalties but not riders' claims. Joint topweights - no bet.   Results to £100 win level stakes: 163 Bets Profit £5,922 To 5 point win bets: Profit +296.10 pts   NB. By removing both Plumpton and Wetherby from the qualifying tracks, the profit was increased to £7,322 from a total of 145 bets - see Steve's Blog dated 8 April 2008.

[Trotter]

I guess the idea behind the above 'system' is that running around tight tracks where much of the race is round a bend slows the field down .......... and that it's easier to carry weight if you're not going as fast

think of yourself with a suitcase ....... you can walk a long away carrying a suitcase but it gets more difficult if you start jogging or running

But then the fact that they take Plumpton out sort of negates the whole thing because that's one of the tightest tracks around.

 

 

[Villa Chris]

17 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I guess the idea behind the above 'system' is that running around tight tracks where much of the race is round a bend slows the field down .......... and that it's easier to carry weight if you're not going as fast

think of yourself with a suitcase ....... you can walk a long away carrying a suitcase but it gets more difficult if you start jogging or running

But then the fact that they take Plumpton out sort of negates the whole thing because that's one of the tightest tracks around.

 

 

 I selected a horse the other week that was carrying top weight and it was running on a tight track. I selected it not because of that, but I just happened to remember this top weight system. It won at 11/2. As you say trotter there’s logic behind it. 

[MCLARKE]

Thanks for that Chris, always good to hear different angles.

The logic looks to still apply, over the last few years the top weight has shown a profit, with an AE of 1.038.

Backing the top 3 has been even more profitable, with an AE of 1.043.

I have excluded horses ridden by claimers in this analysis.

I will certainly be looking at putting together a system for the new NH season based on this.

It could also mean that backing light weights on other courses may also prove profitable.

 

[Villa Chris]

A system I’m using at the minute and it’s doing ok is based around prize money won. There’s more to it but that’s the bases of it. Feel quite confident with this system and feel much better about betting on the horses. The loses are easier to take, too. Doing my own work and not relying on tipsters, which makes it more enjoyable .

[MCLARKE]

I agree, I think you need to make your own selections. There are some good tipsters out there but it is difficult to get on at the advised prices, especially if you suffer from bookie restrictions.