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Racing Chat - Sunday July 19th

BillyHills
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Darran

Darran

Posted
Posted

Just the 2 winners on the flat on Saturday and although I got one on the Kensington track at Randwick there was a massive bias towards front runners so the ones I put up who were not on the speed had no chance. Onto the jumps action at Pakenham on Sunday morning and the are 6 races after the maiden hurdle divided 3 times! More proof that Australian jumps racing is in decent health at the moment. The going at the moment is a Soft 7 although there is rain expected so it might go into the Heavy range.

Race 1 (2.05am)

Here we have a few interesting hurdling newcomers with some who have shown good enough form to land a maiden hurdle. Beau Balmain is the favourite based on his flat form which is decent enough. He's trialled no more than OK though and I am happy enough to take him on as the favourite. Buffalo Bill has been solid enough in BM58's on the level and beat Beau Balmain in a slowly run trial. Peace Brother won a BM58 a couple of starts back so comes here in decent enough form. I am though going to favour those who have already been running over hurdles. I don't think Eyes Are Blue or Ross's Point are complete no hopers at their odds given they have shown fair form so far. The two though I am going to put up are First Crush and He's All White. First Crush was poor on his first hurdles run, but he was much improved last time when he went into BM120 company when 2nd to Woodsman. Granted he was beaten 7L, but it was a good effort no he goes back into maiden company. He's All White was a really good 2nd on his hurdles debut 2 weeks ago when beaten by a horse who deserved to lose his maiden tag. That form could well be good enough to land this. I will be splitting stakes on the pair.

He's All White @ 5/1 with Betfair

First Crush @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfair

Race 2 (2.45am)

This is a pretty poor maiden hurdle and it is easy to see why Instigator is the slight odds on favourite on his hurdles debut. He has only won once in 21 starts on the level, but he's capable of decent form and he was 3rd in a Sandown BM78 beaten less than a length 11 days ago. He's trialled well and he has a great chance of making it a winning hurdling debut. I'm surprised Holburt is shorter in the market than Tony Two Chips given he was 2 places and a couple of lengths behind him last time. That was Holburt's 2nd hurdles start and Tony Two Chips' 1st so there is scope for there being more to come. The bets for me are a forecast play with Instigator to beat Tony Two Chips and a small saver on Tony Two Chips to win.

Instigator to beat Tony Two Chips

Tony Two Chips @ 5/1 with Bet365

Race 3 (3.25am)

We have another favourite who is making their hurdling debut here and Eckhart was 4th in a BM70 at Geelong in his last race last month. He's had a few trials over hurdles, but he's never been put under that much pressure so a race scenario will be very different and again I am happy to take on the market leader. Little Phoenix is certainly a player on his Casterton 2nd to Stanley where Tony Two Chips was 3rd. That was on a Soft 7 and chances are he hated the Heavy 10 at the Bool a couple of weeks ago as he was stuffed back in 3rd. It shouldn't be anywhere near that bad and that will help his chances. I have left him out though and am going to take two against the field. I liked Pachino Boy's hurdling debut at Casterton where he was 2nd to Britannicus and Tiger Tim was back in 3rd and he was the horse who won the race at the Bool that Little Phoenix was well beaten in. That form is certainly good enough to land this. I thought Infinite Reign was over priced. He may have only been 5th on his hurdles debut at Ballarat a month ago but he was only 5L behind Ventura Storm and that was a good race. You would expect improvement from that and a quicker surface will help as well.

Pachino Boy @ 14/5 with Bet365

Infinite Reign @ 13/2 with Bet365

Race 4 (4.05am)

The set weights in the feature hurdle on the card mean it favours those at the top of the weights as if it was a handicap they would have to be giving much more weight away to the likes of Bee Tee Junior who had a good win last time and looks a promising horse. Given that I do think it looks a match between the top two. We have Gobstopper who has had an incredible season winning every big hurdle race so far this term. He had to work very hard to beat Woodsman a couple of weeks ago, but he still pulled the win out of the fire. The top weight is New Zealand star Tallyho Twinkletoe. He has only been beaten once in 7 starts over hurdles and won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and the Grand National Chase at Ballarat last year. Those two races are the targets again this time around and he has prepped for this by a flat run and an easy hurdles win in his native country. That win came last Friday. This is clearly a tougher test and he will have to be at the top of his game to beat a hard fit Gobstopper, but he was so impressive last season that I think he can beat Gobstopper here.

Tallyho Twinkletoe @ 19/20 with Bet365

Race 5 (4.45am)

The Mosstrooper is the big race over fences and I must admit I thought it was between the Amy McDonald pair Shamal and Felix Bay. Getting Leggie should improve for the run last time where he was well beaten a couple of weeks ago. He won the Brierly at the May Carinval prior to that, but the form of the race hasn't really worked out. Slowpoke Rodriguez looks a bit of a dodge pot to me and he usually flatters to deceive and Killarney Kid is making his chase debut having been well beaten over hurdles a couple of weeks ago. He jump well in a trial in the week though. Shamal doesn't have a jockey as I type and I was a bit disappointed with his finishing effort a couple of weeks ago. He made a fast move down the back straight to bring himself into contention and he looked like he was going to play a big part in the finish, but he stopped pretty quickly and was only 5th. Maybe his win the week before had left a mark, but it was a bit disappointing nonetheless. The stable jockey has chosen Felix Bay and I was going to have a really decent bet on him when he was declared to run over fences last month only for him to be a non-runner. I was really impressed with his course and distance win in April when he beat Getting Leggie by 7L. He has had 2 starts on the level recently where he was 2nd at Casterton and 3rd at the Bool a week later. Those efforts clearly suggest he's in good heart and he just had a warm up in the same trial as Killarney Kid as he was always way behind the other runners.

Felix Bay @5/2 with William Hill

Race 6 (5.25am)

This BM120 Chase looks a match between Flying Agent and Michelin who have already raced against each other twice this season for a score of 1-1. Flying Agent's win came over hurdles at Sandown whereas Michelin won the maiden steeplechase at Ballarat last month. I thought Flying Agent got a bad ride that day as he was dropped out at the back and Michelin was further forward and in the bad ground Flying Agent couldn't quite get there. Hopefully he will be close to the speed and he made the running a couple of weeks ago at the Bool when coming home a 17L winner. I think Flying Agent can make it 2-1.

Flying Agent @ 6/4 with Bet365

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

York 230 

A moment of madness   229 14.0 betfair 5pt win 

Danzeno   227 17/2 will h 5pt win 

Mighty spirit  227 9.4 betfair 5pt win 

A momentofmadness had been in fairly poor form of late ....showed a glimmer last time but is incredibly well hcpped if can find his form today ..   the other 2 have posted some good form recently so should run well today 

 

 

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

One Trixie today:

1.55 York Boccacio £2 at 9/4
2.15 Nb Nahaar £2 win at 2.96 = £3.72
4.00 Nb Selino £2 win at 6.4 = £10.26
One Trixie at £1.50 = £6 v Poss Return £128.63

Other single bets:

2.30 Yk Golden Dragon 50p win at 33/1 (needs gd/gd/frm ground)
3.05 Yk Made In India 50p win at 16/1
3.35 Yk Swiss Knight 50p at 11/1
4.10 Yk Northern Powerhouse £1 win at 11/2 (suckered in by media press hype)

Total multiples = £6

Total singles bets £8.50

Total stakes = £14.50

I will be looking for further 10/1 plus horses later on but have to get lunch ready right now.  Not sure if I will publish them yet; depends on the effect that the associated booze has on me.  Good luck to all punting today. Should be an entertaining day no matter what

I am adding a few more win bets:

1.40 Nb Alkumait 50p win at 11/1
3.25 Nb Extra Elusive 50p win at 10/1
5.00 Nb Fromnowon 50p win at 14/1
3.50 Sou Grania O'Malley 50p win at 11/1

Total singles stakes = £10.50

I reckon that placing 50p win stakes on horse selections of one's choice from a price range of 10/1 to 100/1 plus is the best strategy that any armchair punter could wish to have.  I will prove that this is so over the coming months.

NB my staking goes £4 for 1/1 to 15/8 (not proven as financially viable yet) £2 between 2/1 and 7/2 and £1 between 4/1 & 9/1. As stated 50p for 10/1 to 100/1.  Just adding this in for purr-spective ,Cali the cat endorsement)

Just one winner today from my Trixie so a blank day for my multiples

Therefore - a £6 loss and a balance C/Fwd of £647.63 (Bank £800)

One winner on my singles bets; hence £10.50 less £3.72 = a loss of £6.78.  This means a balance c/Fwd of £342.44 (Bank £400) 

None of my 50p bets won so a £3.50 loss was incurred and is reflected in my singles balance.  I made a couple of mistakes today with these that cost me not to make a profit, however, I am very excited that these will be fruitful in the future.  Hopefully I will pick the right one for the Naps comp as I progress.

I will keep a running P/L of my 50p bets in the future.

 

 


 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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