harry_rag Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 Out of interest, is it easy to compare how legs 1, 2 and 3 compare to level stakes? e.g. x winners from y 1st leg selection, level stakes profit/loss = z Obviously there will be more 1st legs than 2nd and more 2nd than 3rd but it would be interesting to compare the strike rates and returns (and average odds perhaps). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 19, 2021 Author Share Posted July 19, 2021 5th yesterday Amelia R 19.50 Beverley @ 5\2 (bog) Creditable sixth of 13 in handicap at Ayr (7.2f, good to firm, 5/1) 7 days ago, finishing with running left having not had a clear run. One to bear in mind at this level. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 20, 2021 Author Share Posted July 20, 2021 1st @ 5\2 ..... Rule 4 10p yesterday Tarroob 14.45 Wolverhampton @ 7\4 (bog) Promising sort. Good second of 11 in handicap at Newcastle (1m) on reappearance 25 days ago. Likely she has more to offer and leading claims. Treble - 2nd Leg - 3.25 Pts WIn Double - 2nd Leg - 3.25 Pts Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 20, 2021 Author Share Posted July 20, 2021 2nd today Motawaazy 17.00 Catterick @ 9\4 (bog) In good form for this yard, including a pair of C&D wins. Had a bit in hand when seeing off 13 rivals a fortnight ago and a 5 lb rise doesn't look enough to stop him. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 22, 2021 Author Share Posted July 22, 2021 2nd yesterday Espressino 16.05 Worcester @ 3\1 (bog) Back to form of late, runner-up over this C&D prior to landing a conditional jockeys' race under Charlie Hammond at Stratford (18.7f). Escapes a penalty for that and he's the one to beat. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 7th yesterday Auriferous 19.22 Newmarket @ 2\1 (bog) Consistent rather than progressive sort who ran well upped in trip making his handicap debut when third of 11 at Haydock (14f, good to soft) 20 days ago. Player if building on that. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 24, 2021 Author Share Posted July 24, 2021 3rd yesterday Cachet 13.15 Ascot @ 3\1 (bog) Clear-cut debut winner at Newmarket (6f) in May and acquitted herself with credit both starts last month, fifth in Albany Stakes/third in listed event. Further progress possible now upped in trip. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 3rd yesterday Butte Montana 14.15 Uttoxeter @ 15\8 (bog) Confirmed previous encouragement when opening his account over hurdles at Stratford (Mordred second) 26 days ago, eased down late. Had plenty to spare, so capable of defying a penalty. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 4th yesterday Don't Stop Now 15.45 Newton Abbott @ 2\1 (bog) Just modest form in 3 runs to date, seemingly undone by the emphasis on speed when sixth of 8 at Worcester last time. Cheekpieces could bring more out of him and this might not take much winning. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 2nd today Baseman 18.45 Galway @ 11\4 (bog) Lightly-raced winner. Cheekpieces on for 1st time, career best when winning 16-runner maiden at Limerick (8f, good to soft, 9/4) 23 days ago, running on. Big player on handicap debut. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 2nd today Lowndes Square 19.05 Leicester @ 5\2 (bog) Lightly-raced maiden. 3/1, respectable third of 9 in handicap at Yarmouth (7f, good to firm) 27 days ago, finishing with running left. Has good chance on form. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 7th yesterday Sparkleandshine 13.00 Stratford @ 3\1 (bog) Maiden hurdle winner for Sam Thomas back in spring 2018 and proved he retains all of his ability in first-time tongue strap when runner-up over C&D last month. Leading player if building on that. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 6th yesterday Torvi 18.00 Bath @ 13\8 (bog) 10/1, promising debut second of 14 in maiden over C&D (good) 17 days ago, running on late. Sure to improve, and she merits serious consideration. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 31, 2021 Author Share Posted July 31, 2021 1st @ 13\8 yesterday Moosmee 18.05 Lingfield @ 7\4 (bog) 2 wins from 4 runs this year. 10/3, career best when winning 7-runner handicap at this course (7f, good) 5 days ago, forging clear. Carries penalty. Shortlist material. Treble - 2nd Leg - 2.38 Pts WIn Double - 2nd Leg - 2.38 Pts Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 1, 2021 Author Share Posted August 1, 2021 7th yesterday Bonttay 16.37 Market Rasen @ 13\8 (bog) Westerner filly. Dam bumper/21f-2¾m hurdle winner (stayed 3m). One to take seriously for a stable that enjoys plenty of success in this discipline. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 On 7/18/2021 at 11:07 AM, harry_rag said: Out of interest, is it easy to compare how legs 1, 2 and 3 compare to level stakes? e.g. x winners from y 1st leg selection, level stakes profit/loss = z Obviously there will be more 1st legs than 2nd and more 2nd than 3rd but it would be interesting to compare the strike rates and returns (and average odds perhaps). @harry_rag sorry only saw this, this morning. Will have a look, when I get a chance. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 1st @ 2\1 yesterday Mind Your Money 13.40 Cork @ 7\4 (bog) Promising individual. Winner in bumper at Tramore in April. Second of 14 in novice hurdle (11/8) at Kilbeggan (16f, good) 17 days ago. Has to be taken seriously. Treble - 2nd Leg - 3 Pts WIn Double - 2nd Leg - 3 Pts Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 7th yesterday Dinero Falso 17.05 Roscommon @ 3\1 (bog) Lightly-raced maiden under NH rules. Good second of 14 in novice hurdle (9/1) at this course (20.9f, soft) 28 days ago. Likely to be on the premises again. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 @harry_rag 1st Leg Selections 84 Wins from 270 Profit Level Stakes : 19.66 ROI : 7.28 % 2nd Leg Selections 33 Wins from 90 Profit Level Stakes : 12.09 ROI : 13.43% 3rd Leg Selections 18 Wins from 39 Profit Level Stakes : -2.34 3rd Leg Strike Rate best of the three legs but lowest profit. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Thanks @Xtc12 interesting even if I can't quite remember why the question occurred to me! I think I was just wondering if there was any significant difference between the returns for the 3 types of bet, given that there are different criteria for each leg (in terms of the price you look for). I suppose, if there was anything extreme, it could flag that you would be better off just looking for the same type of bet for each leg, e.g. ditch the poor performer and focus on the strong one. As it is, I don't think it tells us anything of significance. I suspect you've just been a little unlucky with the "shorties" being in the red but, obviously, it's the smallest sample size. Thanks for taking the time to do the analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 4, 2021 Author Share Posted August 4, 2021 10th yesterday Spirit Warning 16.30 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) Seventeen runs since last win in 2019. Not seen to best effect when fourth of 7 in handicap (10/1) at this C&D (good to firm) 42 days ago. Expected to be bang there. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 6th yesterday Camerily Joe 16.00 Brighton @ 9\4 (bog) Latest win at Wolverhampton in July. 5/2, good second of 12 in handicap at Yarmouth (7f, good to firm) 9 days ago, just failed. Looks well handicapped turned out quickly. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 6, 2021 Author Share Posted August 6, 2021 4th yesterday Seisai 18.00 Tipperary @ 5\2 (bog) Thrice-raced winner. 3¼ lengths third of 5 to Agartha in Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown (7.1f, good, 6/1) 15 days ago, better placed than most. Difficult to oppose. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 7, 2021 Author Share Posted August 7, 2021 1st @ 5\2 yesterday Northern Express 17.10 Haydock @ 6\4 (bog) Had shaped as though on a workable mark and proved well served by switch to patient tactics when coming fast and late to score at York (7f) 2 weeks ago. Can go well again under similar circumstances. Treble - 2nd Leg - 3.5 Pts WIn Double - 2nd Leg - 3.5 Pts Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 8, 2021 Author Share Posted August 8, 2021 3rd yesterday Light Refrain 15.05 Curragh @ 3\1 (bog) Bounced back to her best to win 10-runner Summer Stakes at York (6f, good) 30 days ago by 2¼ lengths from Vadream, driven out. Yard in good form. Should go well again. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 5th yesterday Thaki 17.35 Windsor 1 Pt WIn @ 15\8 (bog) Maiden. First run since leaving Luke McJannet when creditable third of 11 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm, 7/2) 5 days ago, shaping best. Big shout. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 5th yesterday Midfield 20.20 Chelmsford 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) Visored and much improved whne opening her account in 12-runner handicap at Lingfield (15.8f, AW) 7 days ago. Big player under a 6 lb penalty with the headgear retained. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 8th yesterday Yanifer 20.15 Ffos Las @ 3\1 (bog) On a roll, completing a hat-trick when seeing off 4 rivals at Bath (1m, good to firm) a week ago. 6 lb penalty may not stop this 3-y-o as he goes in search of a 4-timer. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 3rd yesterday Lankaran 19.08 Lingfield @ 2\1 (bog) Improving 3-y-o who really impressed on his handicap bow when landing 1m handicap at Kempton in June. Has plenty more to offer, so rates a most interesting contender after his break. Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 3rd yesterday My Boy Max 20.23 Thirsk @ 9/4 (bog) Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win Single - 1 Pt WIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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