NI Cup & Cymru Premier Predictions > Jan 4th

[StevieDay1983]

It's a weird one this weekend with the Northern Irish Cup and just a single game in the Cymru Premier. I'll get my preview up shortly for that one after I've had some food to boost my plummeting energy levels. Is it just me or does it feel football has not ceased over the last month?! 

Anyway, @Wiltshire Shot, @Bang on, and @Cheltenhamwhite, let us know your thoughts on these limited options this weekend. Back to business as usual next weekend!

[Wiltshire Shot]

I'm not taking part in the Welsh game; Caernarfon should win but their disappointing performance last time out, and the price, put me off.  I look forward to @StevieDay1983's review to see if that changes my mind!

I have got an interest in Flint's game at Porthmadog on Saturday in the north.  I got Bet365's over-generous 13/8 on Flint which has come in, but there might still be legs in the 10/11 (my price is around 4/6 to 5/6).  I've seen Porth (my local side, albeit a very scenic 30 minute drive) four times this season.  Performances have improved a bit following an awful start, particularly after changing managers.  Results haven't yet caught up with only one home win, and that against 9-man Ruthin, although Porth looked the better side when scores were even.  Porth can raise their game; I saw a deserved success at Colwyn Bay, but so far that's the exception rather than the rule and one of only three league wins this season.

Flint on the other hand are second, with thirteen wins from nineteen.  I watched a draw at Bangor; although fortunate to get a draw on the night both sides looked high quality (for the division) and a cut above the strugglers.

I hope Porth stay up because I've got a soft spot for them, but it will take one of their better performances to get a result in this game.

I'm at Wrexham tomorrow to see the footballing love of my life, Aldershot, for my local away game.

[StevieDay1983]

Penybont vs Caernarfon

The only Cymru Premier game this weekend has Penybont hosting Caernarfon in a 2:30pm GMT at the KYMCO Stadium in Bridgend on Saturday afternoon. As @Wiltshire Shot rightly pointed out, the value on this game isn't very good at all so we'll have to have a dig around and see if there's anything that stands out from the ordinary across the markets on this match.

Penybont did us a favour in our last preview by conceding so late on to gift us with the draw that we backed. Rhys Griffiths' side are technically joint bottom with Airbus UK and Carmarthen with only goal difference keeping them off the bottom in the table. It's now 6 league games without a win for The Bont and just 1 win in 10 home league games give them a very disappointing record on home turf.

Caernarfon come into this game as the firm favourites but their form isn't great. The Canaries are in 5th place but as the season draws on it looks like they'll have to settle for a Europa League play-off spot at best. Sean Eardley's men have got a brilliant home record but they've failed to transfer that to their travels. On the road, they've only managed 3 wins and 1 draw from their 9 league games.

Ill discipline in their last two away matches has cost Caernarfon. They got away with it in a 1-0 win at Carmarthen but Bala Town punished them in their last away game. I can't help but feel that Penybont are running out of steam. The late goal conceded against Carmarthen in their last game will have taken the wind out of their sails and it's a quick turnaround for them to play this game. I think Caernarfon can win this but it'll be close.

Caernarfon to Win to Nil @ 3.50 with BetVictor

Draw HT/ Caernarfon FT @ 5.00 with Betfair

[Bang on]

Not really worth having a bet for me. The Crusaders/Glentoran double pays 0.63/1 so I will give it a miss despite both being at home to lower league ooposition.