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Wiltshire Shot

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About Wiltshire Shot

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/17/1962

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  • Location:
    Snowdonia
  1. Barry have lengthened to 19/20 with Unibet, so I've taken them to beat Newtown (I wasn't going to at the opening 3/4). Barry are looking good for the fourth place they were generally predicted pre-season. Four games without a win don't tell the recent story; a credible draw against champions Connah's Quay and arguably unlucky to lose against leaders TNS. A heavy defeat against Bala was a disappointment, though. The other game was the return game, when Barry got a late equalizer at Newtown. Other than that draw, Barry have beaten the sides below them. Newtown have disappointed so far.
  2. Only one for me, an unimaginative punt on Connah's Quay at Betway's 2/9. I don't often go for short priced favourites which are often too short, but I think there is some value in even this short price, which I had at 1/6. The home side are champions, while Druids are bottom and anything other than a home win would be a surprise. I was also on over 3.5 goals at Aberystwyth but that game has gone.
  3. From a betting perspective it's a shame Cefn Druids/Haverfordwest is off because the Druids have started badly and Haverfordwest are having a semi-decent run and their 15/8 looked very generous... Friday: Caernarfon v Connah's Quay looks priced up about right so I'm not involved, although it's difficult to see beyond a Nomads win. If crowds were allowed this would probably be my destination for the weekend. I'm on Cardiff Met to beat Aberystwyth, which I got at 9/5. I have Cardiff as slight outsiders and that looked slightly generous. To my surprise the price has come in sign
  4. No bet for me because I think the bookies are about right; if I was going to bet it would be on a draw because as @StevieDay1983 says it should be a tight game. Maybe a bet in play as it's on the box. Presumably the Cymru Premier midweek games will go ahead next week after Wales comes out of lockdown which will give a few more games to pick from.
  5. Only the TNS v Haverfordwest game has survived the lockdown. TNS are very short (I mean VERY short). A couple of weeks ago I might have taken them on the handicap, but the stats suggest they were fortunate to beat Connah's Quay (although I haven't a report and the Nomads are reigning champions so no disgrace); more concerning would be dropping points at Aberystwyth last time out, so form may have dipped slightly since their impressive start. Haverfordwest are lower mid table and this should be a routine home win, but for a long shot I think the value at 7/1 double chance might even be
  6. No bet for me. Yes Bala are rightly favourites and should be comfortable with both those bets coming in but I'm not sure they should be that short.
  7. I'm struggling to come up with much in Wales this season, probably because I'm not getting to games and so not getting a feel for the teams and also there are no second tier games which Bet365 occasionally priced up. Watching on the box isn't the same. Anyway, today I'm on Flint to win at Cardiff MU at a price that has now gone out to 23/20; my price is around 2/1 at best, so a value bet rather than a likely winner. Both are on appalling runs; I think both have lost five in a row and Flint conceded double figures against TNS on the way. So both out of form, and in a division where so f
  8. Good luck with Caernarfon. I think the bookies are about right this weekend so I'm giving the Welsh games a miss this time.
  9. Newtown let me down; in fairness reports are that a draw was fair. Newtown were fancied by several Welsh pundits to do well this season but their decent-looking squad hasn't delivered so far. I don't usually do short priced favourites, but I've taken TNS at Caernarfon on Sunday. TNS have started with purpose, both domestically and in Europe, while Caernarfon are probably mid-table at best and lost some of their best players in the summer, had budget cuts, and don't have the same quality this time. It should be a straightforward away win. For the televised game I've taken Flint at
  10. For the Friday game, I got Newtown at Sky's 13/8, which is long gone and I don't see any value in the current 11/10 or so - my price is around 5/4. I've already been stung by Newtown this month, but despite that I still have some faith in their decent-looking summer signings. Aberystwyth should be okay this season, but I reckon will finish below Newtown who I was happy to take at the price.
  11. Nothing for me on the Friday game. I wanted to back Flint, but the price has come in to 6/4, which I think is about right. When I saw Flint last year (only once, admittedly) I thought they looked short of Cymru Premier standard and after being promoted as runners-up I was concerned for them. However, they have made some decent signings and I can see them finishing above Aber who were lower half last time, although never in danger of the drop. No win in two for Aber suggests a similar average season this time.
  12. I couldn't make a strong case for either victory, especially after Barry lost to a weaker (on paper) team last week. I was tempted by a Valletta/Zilina double but didn't. I'm pleased for Bala, who are my nearest Premier team.
  13. On Thursday Barry play NSI Runavik in the Faroe Islands. Barry finished fourth in Wales last season, falling away after a good start. I'm struggling to familiarise myself with their new signings, but there's some confidence they should challenge for third place again next season, below Wales' two professional sides. Their hosts finished third last year, and are currently fourth, beyond that I admit Faroe Island football isn't my specialist subject. NSI have the advantage of their season currently being up and running, and of home advantage, although the game won't be played at their home g
  14. In Wales: None of the North/South matches have been priced up as far as I know. Sadly for @StevieDay1983 the Flint/Prestatyn match has gone due to the weather (a shame because I thought there was a lot of value in a 2X punt) which leaves three matches. The two Saturday games sees the league's two best (Connah's Quay and TNS) sides drawn at home. Both should win and the prices reflect that and I'm not getting involved in either. Which leaves Caernarfon v Cefn Druids. I'm hoping to get there if it survives the deluge, but with the other game off it's now the televised match whi
  15. So Penybont beat Aberystwyth , and according to the stats not only won but dominated, which I doubt many people predicted. A couple of matches in the North and South have been priced, and I can't find value in them. Saturday's Premier games: Barry v Caernarfon: Two seemingly out of form sides meet. Caernarfon in particular, with only one point in seven games, at struggling Penybont. Barry have picked up ten points in that time, and the defeats against Connah's Quay (twice) and TNS are understandable, so maybe their form isn't as bad as I thought, although they have dropped off f
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