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Wiltshire Shot

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About Wiltshire Shot

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  • Birthday 09/17/1962

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  1. Wales... Caernarfon travel to Newtown on the back of an impressive win against Barry; whether or not 4-1 flattered Caernarfon depends on which side's report you read! The influential Jamie Crowther suffered injury a couple of weeks ago, and doesn't appear to have been missed. Caernarfon's away record only shows seven points from six, but the fixture computer hasn't been kind and they have won their two games against bottom half sides. Newtown lost heavily last week but the score was probably skewed by an earlyish red. Newtown have been solid at home, but I think there's enough value in Caernarfon's 17/10 and I've taken it. I'm not sure why Bet365 have taken down their prices on Aber v Bala - everyone else lists it and I'm not aware of the game being in danger. Anyway, Bala are looking certain of a top half place. Aberystwyth put in the worst WPL performance I've seen this season in losing the return game but in fairness have improved since, including an eye catching 5-1 at Airbus last week, and are unbeaten in five. A month ago I'd have been all over Bala at about 5/6, but given Aber's improvement the prices seem about right and I'll probably watch the first fifteen on the box (the wife is working tonight so I have the telly) then see if I can back Bala in play if they're on top. Bala are also presumably without Lassana Mendes who was red carded last week, and who is one of their key players, driving from central midfield. Airbus host Penybont with both sides struggling for form. The stats point to Airbus with Hills' 27/20 just about being value but I don't know enough about either side to place a bet with confidence. I agree with @StevieDay1983 about Barry. It's hard to know how much last week's defeat will impact on Barry, but on the other hand they have home advantage and loud support. I can see a draw as well, but I think the bookies fancy Connah's Quay a bit too much - I'd have Barry slightly shorter than the near 2/1 available so I've taken them DNB at 6/5 with Paddy. I admit this is a risk as the Nomads are top and haven't lost in the league yet, and I've called Barry wrong every time I've been involved with them this season! If I get to a game tomorrow it'll be Cefn Druids against Cardiff MU, in which case I'll have an interest bet on the hosts DNB at just under evens. I'm not familiar with either side though, but the table and recent form have them about even which is reflected in the price. Finally, TNS should have no problem with Carmarthen. I still don't think Carmarthen are as bad as four points from thirteen games suggests, but there is a definite gap in class between top and bottom. Carmarthen when I last saw them had trouble retaining the ball after clearing it, which meant it kept coming back at them, which is likely on Saturday. However, TNS haven't crushed many teams - only two wins by greater than a goal. So, rather than taking them on the handicap I've got them in a treble at just over evens - like @Bang on - only my companions are Blackpool in the FA Cup and AZ in Holland.
  2. My thoughts on this weekend in Wales: Bala haven't been the force I expected this season but have been decent enough to look certainties for the top half when the league splits. Newtown have generally beaten the sides below them but lost to those above and look right in mid table. They did beat Bala at home though. I give Bala 50/50 change of winning this, give or take and I'm just about happy to take Unibet's 17/20. Cardiff MU should have enough for Penybont but I think the price is too short. Connah's Quay v TNS is 2nd v 3rd. I've taken Connah's Quay/draw double chance at the general 5/6. I think the game is priced up according to reputation rather than form and league table. The Nomads are unbeaten this season, while TNS have three wins on the trot, but reports are they were slightly fortunate to beat Bala at home last week - Bala missed a penalty and had a late 'equalizer' ruled out - and their previous wins were against strugglers. I don't know enough about Aberystwyth or Airbus to place a bet, although on league places and form the prices seem about right. I've also taken Barry DNB at Caernarfon at the general 11/10. Caernarfon are best 5/4, and I struggle to make them shorter than 6/4 so giving vale to the visitors. Caernarfon like to retain possession and play in front of the opposition while looking for a breakthrough, while Barry's strong defence means they might be looking for a while! So, a draw is plausible though so I've ruled that out. Finally, I was going to leave Carmarthen/Druids alone as about right but I've taken Bang On's suggestion of Druids DNB. Carmarthen were 'ordinary' at best at Caernarfon last week - with better finishing it could have been three times the 2-0 Caernarfon managed. While Druids aren't as good as Caernarfon they're probably good enough not to lose.
  3. Tonight, I've taken Bala/draw double chance at TNS. I got 9/4 at Bet365, but that's gone now. TNS' still aren't firing on all cylinders - it took a very late goal to beat struggling Penybont last week and they've also dropped points against Caernarfon, Barry and Cardiff MU in their last half dozen games. A TNS win is probably the most likely result, but Bala ain't bad and I definitely wouldn't put the chances of a home win quite as high as the bookies. Newtown v Cardiff interested me as both sides are prone to draws and I was going to bet on a stalemate but the bookies agree and prices have come in over the last 24 hours to remove much of the value so I'm leaving it alone. Connah's Quay should dispose of Aberystwyth but at 2/5 for an away win I'm not getting involved. On Saturday, Barry and Caernarfon are both 8/13 to win at home, but both are potential banana skins. Barry host Airbus who at last are finding a bit of form. Caernarfon play rock bottom Carmarthen having lost two on the bounce, so lack the form they were in a fortnight ago. I've seen Carmarthen's last two games (one live, one on the box) and they don't look like a team without a win this season. Normally I wouldn't bet on either game but I hope to get to Caernarfon weather permitting, and if both games survive I'll try a cheeky Barry/Caernarfon double not because I think it's value but because I like an interest in games I go to. Finally, on Sunday Penybont host Cefn Druids. Neither are in great form and I can't read the game so I'll not bet.
  4. Brilliant call there, the game was tight and even and the low scoring draw was absolutely right . No fluke it came off for you.
  5. I didn't bet last night; Caernarfon were rightly favfourites against the Driuds but too short for me. I couldn't find an angle on the other game I liked although with hindsight a draw was predictable. Saturday... TNS should win at Penybont but have been unpredictable, and had to come from behind to beat Penybont at home, so I'll give it a miss. Cardiff MU v Connah's Quay: Both are unbeaten this season, although the students have been held to some disappointing draws in recent weeks. I lean towards the away side but not with much confidence as a draw is likely too; the bookies are probably about right and I'll keep away. Airbus have begun to show a glimmer of form after a disappointing start to the season and are slowly climbing the table. Newtown are looking a mid-table side. I've gone for Airbus at the general 15/8; a slight long shot but I think that's where the value is. The big game, and my destination today, is Barry at Bala. Bala have a highly entertaining front three (including league top scorer Chris Venables). I've not seen Barry this season, but a total of six goals conceded all season shows they have the defence to stand a chance of keeping their hosts quiet, and sneaking a goal is a plausible scenario. I can see this one being incredibly close, but I do think there's some legs in Barry DNB at the general 5/4.
  6. Not a bet for me because I think Connah's Quay are too short, I was expecting nearer evens. Caernarfon haven't lost since the opening day, and that against TNS, so I don't think this will be a straightforward home win. I was looking at Caernarfon double chance but the original 11/8 which I thought had some value has gone so I'll stay away. A home win looks to me the most likely result, though, but I think the prices are now about right. I'm expecting a low scoring match, but looking at the odds, so are the bookies. I was hoping to get involved in some of the Cymru North games Bet365 have priced up but again I think the prices are about right.
  7. Stevie is right, the league is interesting at this stage as it looks as if it might not be a stroll for TNS. This weekend is also interesting as in all six matches the higher placed team is away. I can't add to Stevie's eloquent preview of Newtown/Barry, so won't. I was going to ignore it as my bets on a low number of goals usually come unstuck, but the suggestion of Barry DNB is inspired because it takes out the plausible draw and still gives good odds. TNS should have too much for Caernarfon, but have been fragile. I'm not brave enough to go with Caernarfon, nor with TNS at the price. I did like Penybont at home to Aberystwyth but the 6/5 came in to below evens before I could get on. Of the two I prefer Penybont to win, but the value might now be with Aberystwyth but they were disappointing when I saw them at Bala last week so I'm not brave enough to back them. After travelling the length of the country last week only to be postponed at Cardiff due to (I can't resist mentioning it) 'Shirtgate', Cefn Druids have a home game against Bala. Bala haven't done as well as I expected this season. Although I think they're the better side their inconsistency stops me backing them here. Cardiff's students make the journey to Airbus this week. Airbus's two wins this season have come against fellow-strugglers, while Cardiff are unbeaten. I'm happy to take anything above evens and got Cardiff at the general 11/10. Elsewhere, Connah's Quay should have too much for Carmarthen but 4/6 doesn't appeal. Finally, I don't normally look at the Cymru South but I'm on fifth place Ammanford to win at home to eleventh place Goytre (edit for completeness Livescore and official site league tables are different presumably a delay in updating but the stats are the same) . 11/10 (general) for the home side would normally look about right to me given league positions, but after a shaky start Ammanford have won all of their last five while their visitors' form has been more mixed so I think there's some value. This is one based on stats rather than knowing anything about either side.
  8. In Wales... The Friday night matches went to form, although I thought Bala and Caernarfon were too short. As I went to Bala I used up a free bet backing them to add interest, but that after-event brag comes with an acknowledgement it's a bet I wouldn't otherwise have put on. It's also tempered by admitting that I was nearly tempted by Bangor in the North and Midland as Bet365 offered what looked like a decent price (seven-nil cough) although Bangor did finish with eight men. At the bottom I can't predict Airbus v Carmarthen so I'm keeping away. Carmarthen already have a coup[le of credible away draws (but not much else) and at the price if I was going to bet it would be the away side DNB. Cardiff MU have maintained their good form of last season, and Cefn Druids are hovering above the relegation zone, again like last season. The students' home form has been consistent rather than spectacular (a couple of 1-0 wins and a draw, albeit against TNS). The Druids have only one win all season. A home win is highly likely, but as with a lot of games I think the price is too short. Connah's Quay have returned to form after a slow start. They play Penybont who I saw hold out against for long periods against Caernarfon but still lose, and Connah's Quay will be a further step up. While I don't like the individual prices, a Cardiff MU/Connah's Quay double pays out about 1.15/1 in most places and I've taken it. The big game is TNS v Barry, and I've really stuck my neck out and gone for Barry/draw double chance at the general 16/5. The reasons to back TNS are still good ones: they're rammed with good players; they beat Barry 6-2 in a pre-season friendly; I still think Barry's place at the top comes with a caveat they've not been fully tested against the stronger sides. However, I give Barry a chance for a few reasons: TNS 'only' won 75% of their home matches last season and have looked a little shaky at times this season (losing at Bala, going two down to Carmarthen, one down to Penybont (I think), going out of the League Cup to Bangor with what the web site suggests was a strong side); they're apparently suffering from injuries (their web site suggests a strong starting XI but no depth on the bench), and the wins this season haven't always looked convincing scorelines on paper. So, if TNS are going to be taken on, this might be the time to do it. I was going to go to TNS but instead have opted for Corwen v Gresford in the North and Mid as Oswestry is a bit far on a day when the roads are busy with holidaymakers leaving. Edited to correct typos
  9. I've struggled to find anything in the Welsh Premier this week, but finally settled for a draw at Bala/Cardiff at Bet365's 13/5. I can't separate the sides, and as some bookies have Bala as favourites, and others Cardiff, it looks as if the bookies can't either. Bala haven't been quite the force I was expecting this season but are still to be respected, while the students already have three credible draws to their name and three victories in matches I'd expect them to win. Elsewhere, Caernarfon should probably beat Aberystwyth, but I wasn't fully impressed by them last week and 4/5 is too short for me. Likewise, Connah's Quay are coming into form and should be too good for Newton but 4/5 doesn't appeal. Only a few hours the away side were the other side of evens and I'd have taken them if they still were. TNS on paper should have little trouble against Carmarthen, but again the short price is too short for me. The Penybont v Airbus game is between the two bottom clubs. Penybont frustrated Caernarfon for long periods last week but presumably the dynamics will be different at home and I can't judge the game. I'd marginally go for Penybont but not with enough confidence to back them Sunday's game is Barry v the Druids. Barry are rightly favourites and I get that they're a force, and that they aquitt3ed themselves well in the Europa League. However, the fixture computer was kind to them in the opening six games and I suspect the odds are on their first place rather than taking into account the opposition. In other words, I'm not interested in only slightly better than 1/2. No matches for me this weekend; I'm hoping to take in two games across the Premier and Championship North next Friday/Saturday instead, while my wife is working.
  10. I'm on three games in the WPL. I'm ignoring short priced Connah's Quay and TNS; both should win comfortably but haven't really convinced me enough this season to be that short (one-off 1-10 results aside ). I'm also ignoring Druids v Carmarthen as they only have one win between them so no form to speak of; I'd fancy the Druids with home advantage but think the price is slightly short. If I was braver I'd go for the draw. I hope to be at Caernarfon; I've got a few bob on the home side for an added interest. I'd have thought both promoted teams would be okay as from what I've seen of the north feeder the better sides look good enough to hold their own in the Premier, but that's not how its turned out and like Stevie I expect Caernarfon to win. (3/5, general). I'm also on Bala at Newtown (6/4 general); despite them letting me down when I last backed them I still think Bala will have a good season. Newtown should be okay this year, but I expected Bala to be shorter so I've gone for them. I'm also on Barry (23/20, general at Airbus). Like Penybont, Airbus have struggled since coming up, while Barry are undefeated in second, with their two draws coming against better sides than Airbus. I don't know much about either side so this one is based on stats and I'd happily take evens or better.
  11. I've been impressed by Bala this season. They've made some signings that on paper looked promising, and this has transferred onto the field and I can see them pushing hard for a Europa League place. They play Connah's Quay tonight, no mugs themselves, but form hasn't been great since shocking Kilmarnock. Connah's Quay have only scored twice this season, and Bala's strength in going forward should cause their visitors problems at the back. I can see this being a hard-fought match, and I think it'll be closer than the 21/10 Betway are offering for a home win.
  12. Re: England > Weekend > Skrill Prem Dec 28 I've taken a risk on Luton -1EH (Paddy, 2/1). They're putting out a strong side, and at the moment are good going forward. Kiddie are struggling for form, and I'd expect Luton to score at least once, meaning Kiddie will have to go forward at some stage and maybe open up. (It'll be 0-0 now)
  13. Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 An early take for me is Woking at Sky's 11/8. Woking are running into a bit of goalscoring form, while Salisbury are stalling after a bright start. Salisbury's away form hasn't been particularly good even when they were higher-flying; while they've had a difficult away fixture list so far I think there's enough in the price to go with Woking who have six win in seven, including notable scalps of Kidderminster and Nuneaton.