Wiltshire Shot

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About Wiltshire Shot

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  • Birthday 09/17/1962

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  1. So Penybont beat Aberystwyth , and according to the stats not only won but dominated, which I doubt many people predicted. A couple of matches in the North and South have been priced, and I can't find value in them. Saturday's Premier games: Barry v Caernarfon: Two seemingly out of form sides meet. Caernarfon in particular, with only one point in seven games, at struggling Penybont. Barry have picked up ten points in that time, and the defeats against Connah's Quay (twice) and TNS are understandable, so maybe their form isn't as bad as I thought, although they have dropped off following an impressive start to the season. Caernarfon's away form hasn't really kicked off all season so with home advantage I've taken Barry at Unibet's 6/5. Cardiff Met v Airbus: Like Aberystwyth v Penybont this looks a home banker but at 1/2 I'm not taking it. Carmarthen v Cefn Druids: Carmarthen have picked up enough points to stay in touch with safety, but most of those points have come against Airbus and Penybont, the other two strugglers. The Druids have been inconsistent - beating Connah's Quay and losing to Penybont. The home side's recent form will give some hope, but their four undefeated in five have been against Airbus and Penybont, with a seven goal hammering by Barry being the odd one out. I'd expect the Druids, who are gunning for the final Europa League play-off spot, to be favourites for this and I got 17/10 which has now lengthened a bit. Newtown v Bala: Newtown have only two defeats in ten, and are second in the last eight form table although Bala are higher in the table and stronger on paper. I can't work this game out so I'll not bet, although given recent form and Newtown already having beaten Bala at home, I suspect value is with the home side at 3/1.
  2. Friday in Wales (Saturday to follow): Bet365 have so far priced up one game in the south, which looks about right to me. I'm on Aberystwyth and I agree with @StevieDay1983's analysis which I can't add to, although Aber have come in a lot since I put my bet on yesterday. The big game is Connah's Quay v TNS. I went to Bala to see TNS last week, despite it being televised. TNS are clearly an excellent team for this level, but not unbeatable and a hard-fought draw was probably fair. Connah's Quay are top, and with home advantage I really struggle to see why the bookies have TNS as evens favourites; Andy Morrison is doing a good job and I have the sides much more closely matched. While I think the value is with the home side a draw is also highly plausible so I've taken Connah's Quay DNB at BetVic's 29/20.
  3. I'm on an awful run since Christmas, but here I am for another go. I'm on a treble of Connah's Quay, Cefn Druids, and Aberystwyth, which pays 217/100 with Sky. I was also going to do a double on the two home sides in the south tonight, but they came in too much before I placed it. Abetystwyth v Airbus: I've talked Aberystwyth up since seeing their new look side tonk Caernarfon last month, but they haven't really lived up to that since. However, they should still have too much for bottom club Airbus and I think evens is a good shout. Connah's Quay v Caernarfon: I agree with @Bang on that Connah's Quay should have too much for Caernarfon, whose form is wretched at the moment, and who haven't travelled well at any stage. Bala v TNS: Again, I go along with @StevieDay1983's preview. I'll be there (weather permitting) cheering on Bala, but more in hope than expectation. Carmarthen v Cardiff Met: I fancy Cardiff Met as a significantly better side, and if they were at home I've taken it but away I'd want a little longer than evens Cefn Druids v Penybont: The Druids made up ground after a disappointing start to the season, and ended up just short of the top six. They're my tip for seventh and the final Europa league qualifying place, and should have enough for this visitors. Newtown v Barry: Like @Bang on I can't separate them. Barry looked a class side when I saw them draw at Bala but they've struggled since and the inconsistenct of both sides puts me off. My wife is working this weeked so it's Bala tonight, then Porthmadog tomorrow to cheer them on in their relegation struggle, or possibly Bangor to see leaders Prestatyn if Porth's game gats called off.
  4. As well as being the first round of matches following the split, there are also going to be some tweaked teamsheets due to January transfers and I'll be honest and admit I don't know much about most of the new players. David Cotterill at Barry is probably the Welsh league's biggest coup of the window and a big signing not just for the club but for the league. I've got an interest in three Welsh games. Airbus v Cefn Druids: A while ago, when Druids were in form, I'd have been all over them at just longer than evens, particularly as their last league game was an impressive win at Bala. However, no win in the previous four, including a disappointing home defeat to Penybont (two defeats to TNS are forgivable) and Airbus' three draws out of five (again defeats to Connah's Quay can be ignored) give me enough doubt to leave it alone. Penybont v Carmarthen: Both have only one win in eight and a win for Penybont would put Carmarthen in real trouble of being cut adrift. Both sides have conceded a lot this season, but the goals against figures have been skewed by heavy defeats against the bigger sides. They are also among the league's lowest scorers; combined with a plausible scenario where both sides think it more important not to lose, and with a track record of both drawing six of their twenty-two games so far, I give a draw a more than a 3/1 chance of coming in so I've taken it. Others seem to agree with me as the prices for a stalemate have come in. TNS v Newtown: Newtown sneaked into the top six on the last day, and although recent form has been good TNS should have too much for them, although at 1/7 I'm not taking it. Caernarfon v Bala: I can't make this one out; Caernarfon are on a poor run, largely due to injuries. I can't find an injury update or match preview, but I'll assume the break since the last league game means some of the missing will return. Like @StevieDay1983 I fancy the home side for value at just over 2/1, but I do think Bala are the better side. That means the draw already tipped becomes plausible and probably value although I'm not investing. I also agree with @StevieDay1983 that with both sides liking to go forward the game could see goals at both ends. Barry v Connah's Quay: I was really impressed when I saw Barry at Bala a while ago, but they've fallen away since. The Nomads on the other hand have gone the other way and I think are rightly favourites, although too short for me. Cardiff Met v Aberystwyth: Aber did their transfer business early in January, and it paid off when they impressed me by winning at Caernarfon last month. The students have suffered from inconsistency but still sit eight points above their visitors. However, I think the prices are based on league position rather than Aberystwyth's decent new signings and I've chanced them at 15/4 which seems to me a few percent too long. There are some games in the north and south tonight; I'm planning on cheering on Bangor at Llandudno. Further south, Ammanford go to Goytre, and I've taken them at 6/4, based on stats rather than knowing much about either side. Goytre are mid-table, 8th out of 16. Ammanford are fourth with a decent away record, and look a few percent too long to me.
  5. I can't add to @StevieDay1983's excellent preview of the cup final, so I won't. A handful of games have been priced up in the south tonight, there was some value in opposing Taff's Well but the price has shortened to become more realistic. I'll be at Corwen tomorrow cheering on Bangor but with mixed feelings because after Porthmadog, Corwen are my nearest level 1/2 side and I'd like to see at least one avoid the drop
  6. Saturday's Welsh Cup games... (I can't find any prices for Newtown v Rhyl, nor any suggestion it's not being played...) Cefn Druids, Connah's Quay and TNS all have very winnable home ties which is reflected in the odds, with a treble paying 1.4/1. I've decided instead to play a low stake long odds game of hunt the shock, and I've gone for Aberystwyth double chance at TNS. The home side are rightly heavy favourites, although I think 1/9 is way too short and I give Aber more than Paddy's 11/2 of avoiding defeat; my price would be around 4/1. Aber have recruited well during this window, and impressed me when I saw them beat an admittedly below par Caernarfon 3-0 away a couple of weeks ago, which was a much better performance than the previous times I've seen them. Most of their new signings are available to play in the cup, acvcording to Aber's preview. I still make TNS heavy favourites but they have already lost at home to Cardiff MU recently so aren't unbeatable, and I think this is priced on Aber's league position, rather than the capabilities of their current, slightly strengthened, squad. I'm also having a speculative draw/draw HT/FT in the Swansea U v Prestatyn game (13/2, Bet365). Both sides are top of their level 2 league; Prestatyn runaway, Swansea fighting top spot out with Haverfordwest. I'm having difficulty separating the sides, as are the bookies, with a lot pricing both teams at 7/5. I've not seen Prestatyn this season, but the chasing Cymru North sides are decent enough and with their 12-point lead Prestatyn are presumably better. Swansea's fewer points per game is balanced by home advantage which may mean a lot given the distance Prestatyn have to travel. So I can't separate the sides either and a cagy, low scoring draw is a plausible scenario.
  7. Wales on Friday (Saturday to follow...) A couple of bookies have priced up the Cymru South match between Taff's Well and Goytre. Both are well out of form but Goytre are still 4/7. However, Taff's Well 11/10 double chance looks statistically worth taking but is too short for me to take a risk on two sides I know little about, especially as Goytre are the higher team. In the cup, Flint v Colwyn Bay could be a cracker. Flint are a distant second behind Prestatyn, and haven't fully convinced me the couple of times I've seen them, and their recent draw at struggling Porthmadog despite being two up in the dying stages cost me a few pence Bay are nicely positioned in the top half but again, having seen them twice, I'd have Flint as favourites; not quite 11/20 favourites and although tempted by the 5/4 Bay/draw I've decided on the road I'd want longer odds to have Bay avoiding defeat. Penybont host Cardiff Met. Cardiff should progress but both sides have been on reasonable runs recently and the prices look about right. Finally, Ammanford host Caernarfon. We've discussed Caernarfon's poor form on this forum and I'd like to be brave and oppose them, but again the prices look about right. So, no bets for me tonight.
  8. The second three Welsh games... Cardiff Met v Caernarfon: A few weeks ago I'd have taken Caernarfon for this, but the students' upturn in form - including a deserved win at TNS - and Caernarfon's own dip in form will see me stay away. Newtown v Airbus: Newtown's only defeats in eight have come against the top two and Airbus haven't won in seven, including some comprehensive defeats. However, that's reflected in the price which puts me off, in addition to Newtown needing a point to qualify for the Championship Group which puts a lot of pressure on the home side. TNS v Connah's Quay: The top two meet. There is only a point between them so the Nomads have more or less matched TNS stride for stride. I watched the return game on the box, where he Nomads fully deserved their draw. As the table has them evenly matched, I find it difficult to see why the hosts are around 1/2; I'd have them 4/5 at the very longest and probably nearer evens. So, I'm opposing TNS (Nomads/draw) at Betway's 11/8. As they'll play each other twice more a strategic draw might be acceptable to both sides rather than risk defeat, so this could be a cagy match with both sides settling for a low scoring draw; a draw and under 2.5 is around 4/1, although as I've already put a bet on I've not taken it.
  9. Some thought on some Wales games, after a break from betting following a busy Christmas period. First, Bet365 has priced up Friday's games in the North and South which all look about right to me so I'm not investing. Aberystwyth v Penybont: I saw Aber spring a surprise by gaining a deserved victory at Caernarfon last week. Although the strong wind was a leveller to some extent and Caernarfon are struggling with injuries, I was still impressed with Aber. I've been critical of them this season, but against Caernarfon they threw in three new signings and put in easily the best performance of the four (including two on TV) I've seen this season and the win was definitely no fluke. They now face strugglers Penybont who themselves are having a relative upturn in form, with no defeat in three. Despite that I liked the look of Aberystwyth; I'd have liked 6/4 but Betway's 11/8 still seems to me to sit just the right side of value so I've taken it. Bala v Cefn Druids: Bala are probably out of the title race but can't relax as they'll want to push for an automatic Europa League place after missing out in the play-offs last year. Druids' good form has come to an abrupt end with no win in four, although two defeats against TNS are forgivable. I'll probably be there (as part of a double header with Corwen, just up the road from Bala with a 2pm start) and as I like to have an interest in games I'm at I've taken Bala at Sky's 8/15, although I think that's way too short. Like @Bang on, I think Barry should have too much for Carmarthen. I'm staying away though because I'm still not convinced Barry have their consistency back, and also because Carmarthen shown a slight improvement in recent weeks which makes the price on Barry seem short. Other three matches to follow.
  10. I'm not taking part in the Welsh game; Caernarfon should win but their disappointing performance last time out, and the price, put me off. I look forward to @StevieDay1983's review to see if that changes my mind! I have got an interest in Flint's game at Porthmadog on Saturday in the north. I got Bet365's over-generous 13/8 on Flint which has come in, but there might still be legs in the 10/11 (my price is around 4/6 to 5/6). I've seen Porth (my local side, albeit a very scenic 30 minute drive) four times this season. Performances have improved a bit following an awful start, particularly after changing managers. Results haven't yet caught up with only one home win, and that against 9-man Ruthin, although Porth looked the better side when scores were even. Porth can raise their game; I saw a deserved success at Colwyn Bay, but so far that's the exception rather than the rule and one of only three league wins this season. Flint on the other hand are second, with thirteen wins from nineteen. I watched a draw at Bangor; although fortunate to get a draw on the night both sides looked high quality (for the division) and a cut above the strugglers. I hope Porth stay up because I've got a soft spot for them, but it will take one of their better performances to get a result in this game. I'm at Wrexham tomorrow to see the footballing love of my life, Aldershot, for my local away game.
  11. Another brief post from me as I'm still doing Xmas and new year. I'm probably going to Bala tonight but my bet is on Wednesday's match. Penybont and Carmarthen are equally matched in terms of points and form etc etc. I think the odds favour the home side to much; I give the visitors about a 35% chance of winning making the 2/1 and lengthening for a Carmarthen win too long. Just. So a value bet rather than a likely winner.
  12. A brief post from me as I'm doing Christmas. My only bet is Caernarfon DNB at Bet365's 4/5. It should be a close game v Bala but I just about give the home side the nod on the basis of their very strong home form and their slightly better record against others in the top five. I may well be there, although Bangor v Porthmadog the following day is more likely 😀
  13. Saturday... Airbus v Cefn Druids: Airbus sit second from bottom of the table, and bottom of the form table with only one win in eight, although five of those were difficult matches. The Druids are going the other way with seven wins from eight, and are rightly favourites here. However, I don't make them 1/3 favourites so I've gone for a likely losing value (in my opinion) bet of Airbus/draw double chance at Hills' 12/5. Even with these sides' current extremes of form I can't give Airbus such a small (30%) chance of avoiding defeat at home so I've taken it. Carmarthen v Caernarfon: Carmarthen have struggled this season and are rightly bottom. The visitors are fourth but do most of their good work at home - 'only' a point a game away. I'm not sure how this will go so I'm not betting. Caernarfon were originally evens which I'd probably have taken, but are now around 8/11 which is too short for me. Penybont v Newtown: @StevieDay1983 has said it all, and more eloquently than I could ever hope to. I agree the draw is highly possible and I've covered it by taking Newtown DNB at Betway's 17/20.
  14. Here's some thoughts on Friday's games (Saturday to follow). Aberystwyth v Barry: An interesting match because both sides are hopelessly out of form on paper, although Aber are beginning to put something together: recent defeats to Bala, TNS and to some extent Cefn Druids can be excused and these are the only defeats in eight, although they have been prone to draws. On paper Barry should have too much but six defeats in seven (including the cup) point at form not matching reality. The outcome will depend on which Barry turns up, and I'll not bet but follow it with interest because I can't call it. I'll probably follow the stats and decide in play. TNS v Cardiff: TNS are very short which is the sort of but I keep away from, but I'll watch the first few minutes on the box and maybe bet involved then. Connah's Quay v Bala: This repeats the League Cup semi of four weeks ago, and if I recall correctly the prices are the same. At the time the Nomads were on a good run and I thought the odds were about right so didn't bet. Momentum is a different now with Connah's Quay not winning in a couple, and Bala having won five league games on the bounce, most by comfortable scores, although the opposition haven't always been the strongest. The Nomads will still be a test and I make a home win the most likely score, but at the very most a 50/50 shot. I got Bala double chance at evens (better is available now) with Betway, and I think there is a few percent of value in backing the visitors to avoid defeat. There are a handful of matches in the North and South and I've got an interest in Briton Ferry v Llanelli. The home side are on form and sit in third, while Llanelli have fallen away and now find themselves with a lot to do to go up. However, Llanelli are too good to struggle for long and will come good at some stage. I wouldn't normally bet on the game, but Sky have given me a freebie so I've backed Llanelli/draw double chance at 10/11 for a bit or interest; better than evens is available elsewhere.
  15. Nothing from me tonight as the price on Bala looks about right, but it has shortened from 1/4 and if it lengthens any more I might be tempted. Given Penybont's recent form (one loss in five I think, including the cup) there's a case to be made for them, albeit only a modest one! There are also some games in the north and south and I was going to oppose Colwyn Bay, but Conwy's generous double chance price came in too much before I could take it I'll post some thoughts on the weekend's games in due course.