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Wiltshire Shot

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About Wiltshire Shot

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/17/1962

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  • Location:
    Snowdonia
  1. Nothing for me on the Friday game. I wanted to back Flint, but the price has come in to 6/4, which I think is about right. When I saw Flint last year (only once, admittedly) I thought they looked short of Cymru Premier standard and after being promoted as runners-up I was concerned for them. However, they have made some decent signings and I can see them finishing above Aber who were lower half last time, although never in danger of the drop. No win in two for Aber suggests a similar average season this time.
  2. I couldn't make a strong case for either victory, especially after Barry lost to a weaker (on paper) team last week. I was tempted by a Valletta/Zilina double but didn't. I'm pleased for Bala, who are my nearest Premier team.
  3. On Thursday Barry play NSI Runavik in the Faroe Islands. Barry finished fourth in Wales last season, falling away after a good start. I'm struggling to familiarise myself with their new signings, but there's some confidence they should challenge for third place again next season, below Wales' two professional sides. Their hosts finished third last year, and are currently fourth, beyond that I admit Faroe Island football isn't my specialist subject. NSI have the advantage of their season currently being up and running, and of home advantage, although the game won't be played at their home ground due to grading. On the other hand, they are one win in four, and have a 'disappointing' European record of two wins in twenty six games. I think Barry are a decent side for the level and with the Welsh coefficient being higher than the Faroe Islands confirming a small difference between leagues I think they have an okay chance of going through. I've taken Barry DNB at Paddy's 7/5 as I reckon it should be a bit shorter.
  4. In Wales: None of the North/South matches have been priced up as far as I know. Sadly for @StevieDay1983 the Flint/Prestatyn match has gone due to the weather (a shame because I thought there was a lot of value in a 2X punt) which leaves three matches. The two Saturday games sees the league's two best (Connah's Quay and TNS) sides drawn at home. Both should win and the prices reflect that and I'm not getting involved in either. Which leaves Caernarfon v Cefn Druids. I'm hoping to get there if it survives the deluge, but with the other game off it's now the televised match which might be more sensible than risking Snowdonia's passes in the weather. Anyway, this could be an interesting tie. Ignoring routine wins in previous rounds Caernarfon are without a win in eight in the league, admittedly generally against decent sides and last week's draw at Barry was apparently deserved (according to the Caernarfon report anyway!). Cefn Druids aren't faring much better (two wins in seven in the league) but two defeats to TNS can be overlooked and the win at Bala (admittedly fortuitous) catches the eye. Another factor is the weather; Caernarfon like to play a precise, patient game and a wet pitch might make that more difficult. I got Cefn Druids/Draw at 6/5 when the prices came out, which I thought was worth a go given Caernarfon's drop in form. Evens is now what's available for 2X, which I think is on the edge of value. However, it's been a game I've found hard to predict and it wouldn't be a shock to see the home side roar back into form and win comfortably.
  5. So Penybont beat Aberystwyth , and according to the stats not only won but dominated, which I doubt many people predicted. A couple of matches in the North and South have been priced, and I can't find value in them. Saturday's Premier games: Barry v Caernarfon: Two seemingly out of form sides meet. Caernarfon in particular, with only one point in seven games, at struggling Penybont. Barry have picked up ten points in that time, and the defeats against Connah's Quay (twice) and TNS are understandable, so maybe their form isn't as bad as I thought, although they have dropped off following an impressive start to the season. Caernarfon's away form hasn't really kicked off all season so with home advantage I've taken Barry at Unibet's 6/5. Cardiff Met v Airbus: Like Aberystwyth v Penybont this looks a home banker but at 1/2 I'm not taking it. Carmarthen v Cefn Druids: Carmarthen have picked up enough points to stay in touch with safety, but most of those points have come against Airbus and Penybont, the other two strugglers. The Druids have been inconsistent - beating Connah's Quay and losing to Penybont. The home side's recent form will give some hope, but their four undefeated in five have been against Airbus and Penybont, with a seven goal hammering by Barry being the odd one out. I'd expect the Druids, who are gunning for the final Europa League play-off spot, to be favourites for this and I got 17/10 which has now lengthened a bit. Newtown v Bala: Newtown have only two defeats in ten, and are second in the last eight form table although Bala are higher in the table and stronger on paper. I can't work this game out so I'll not bet, although given recent form and Newtown already having beaten Bala at home, I suspect value is with the home side at 3/1.
  6. Friday in Wales (Saturday to follow): Bet365 have so far priced up one game in the south, which looks about right to me. I'm on Aberystwyth and I agree with @StevieDay1983's analysis which I can't add to, although Aber have come in a lot since I put my bet on yesterday. The big game is Connah's Quay v TNS. I went to Bala to see TNS last week, despite it being televised. TNS are clearly an excellent team for this level, but not unbeatable and a hard-fought draw was probably fair. Connah's Quay are top, and with home advantage I really struggle to see why the bookies have TNS as evens favourites; Andy Morrison is doing a good job and I have the sides much more closely matched. While I think the value is with the home side a draw is also highly plausible so I've taken Connah's Quay DNB at BetVic's 29/20.
  7. I'm on an awful run since Christmas, but here I am for another go. I'm on a treble of Connah's Quay, Cefn Druids, and Aberystwyth, which pays 217/100 with Sky. I was also going to do a double on the two home sides in the south tonight, but they came in too much before I placed it. Abetystwyth v Airbus: I've talked Aberystwyth up since seeing their new look side tonk Caernarfon last month, but they haven't really lived up to that since. However, they should still have too much for bottom club Airbus and I think evens is a good shout. Connah's Quay v Caernarfon: I agree with @Bang on that Connah's Quay should have too much for Caernarfon, whose form is wretched at the moment, and who haven't travelled well at any stage. Bala v TNS: Again, I go along with @StevieDay1983's preview. I'll be there (weather permitting) cheering on Bala, but more in hope than expectation. Carmarthen v Cardiff Met: I fancy Cardiff Met as a significantly better side, and if they were at home I've taken it but away I'd want a little longer than evens Cefn Druids v Penybont: The Druids made up ground after a disappointing start to the season, and ended up just short of the top six. They're my tip for seventh and the final Europa league qualifying place, and should have enough for this visitors. Newtown v Barry: Like @Bang on I can't separate them. Barry looked a class side when I saw them draw at Bala but they've struggled since and the inconsistenct of both sides puts me off. My wife is working this weeked so it's Bala tonight, then Porthmadog tomorrow to cheer them on in their relegation struggle, or possibly Bangor to see leaders Prestatyn if Porth's game gats called off.
  8. As well as being the first round of matches following the split, there are also going to be some tweaked teamsheets due to January transfers and I'll be honest and admit I don't know much about most of the new players. David Cotterill at Barry is probably the Welsh league's biggest coup of the window and a big signing not just for the club but for the league. I've got an interest in three Welsh games. Airbus v Cefn Druids: A while ago, when Druids were in form, I'd have been all over them at just longer than evens, particularly as their last league game was an impressive win at Bala. However, no win in the previous four, including a disappointing home defeat to Penybont (two defeats to TNS are forgivable) and Airbus' three draws out of five (again defeats to Connah's Quay can be ignored) give me enough doubt to leave it alone. Penybont v Carmarthen: Both have only one win in eight and a win for Penybont would put Carmarthen in real trouble of being cut adrift. Both sides have conceded a lot this season, but the goals against figures have been skewed by heavy defeats against the bigger sides. They are also among the league's lowest scorers; combined with a plausible scenario where both sides think it more important not to lose, and with a track record of both drawing six of their twenty-two games so far, I give a draw a more than a 3/1 chance of coming in so I've taken it. Others seem to agree with me as the prices for a stalemate have come in. TNS v Newtown: Newtown sneaked into the top six on the last day, and although recent form has been good TNS should have too much for them, although at 1/7 I'm not taking it. Caernarfon v Bala: I can't make this one out; Caernarfon are on a poor run, largely due to injuries. I can't find an injury update or match preview, but I'll assume the break since the last league game means some of the missing will return. Like @StevieDay1983 I fancy the home side for value at just over 2/1, but I do think Bala are the better side. That means the draw already tipped becomes plausible and probably value although I'm not investing. I also agree with @StevieDay1983 that with both sides liking to go forward the game could see goals at both ends. Barry v Connah's Quay: I was really impressed when I saw Barry at Bala a while ago, but they've fallen away since. The Nomads on the other hand have gone the other way and I think are rightly favourites, although too short for me. Cardiff Met v Aberystwyth: Aber did their transfer business early in January, and it paid off when they impressed me by winning at Caernarfon last month. The students have suffered from inconsistency but still sit eight points above their visitors. However, I think the prices are based on league position rather than Aberystwyth's decent new signings and I've chanced them at 15/4 which seems to me a few percent too long. There are some games in the north and south tonight; I'm planning on cheering on Bangor at Llandudno. Further south, Ammanford go to Goytre, and I've taken them at 6/4, based on stats rather than knowing much about either side. Goytre are mid-table, 8th out of 16. Ammanford are fourth with a decent away record, and look a few percent too long to me.
  9. I can't add to @StevieDay1983's excellent preview of the cup final, so I won't. A handful of games have been priced up in the south tonight, there was some value in opposing Taff's Well but the price has shortened to become more realistic. I'll be at Corwen tomorrow cheering on Bangor but with mixed feelings because after Porthmadog, Corwen are my nearest level 1/2 side and I'd like to see at least one avoid the drop
  10. Saturday's Welsh Cup games... (I can't find any prices for Newtown v Rhyl, nor any suggestion it's not being played...) Cefn Druids, Connah's Quay and TNS all have very winnable home ties which is reflected in the odds, with a treble paying 1.4/1. I've decided instead to play a low stake long odds game of hunt the shock, and I've gone for Aberystwyth double chance at TNS. The home side are rightly heavy favourites, although I think 1/9 is way too short and I give Aber more than Paddy's 11/2 of avoiding defeat; my price would be around 4/1. Aber have recruited well during this window, and impressed me when I saw them beat an admittedly below par Caernarfon 3-0 away a couple of weeks ago, which was a much better performance than the previous times I've seen them. Most of their new signings are available to play in the cup, acvcording to Aber's preview. I still make TNS heavy favourites but they have already lost at home to Cardiff MU recently so aren't unbeatable, and I think this is priced on Aber's league position, rather than the capabilities of their current, slightly strengthened, squad. I'm also having a speculative draw/draw HT/FT in the Swansea U v Prestatyn game (13/2, Bet365). Both sides are top of their level 2 league; Prestatyn runaway, Swansea fighting top spot out with Haverfordwest. I'm having difficulty separating the sides, as are the bookies, with a lot pricing both teams at 7/5. I've not seen Prestatyn this season, but the chasing Cymru North sides are decent enough and with their 12-point lead Prestatyn are presumably better. Swansea's fewer points per game is balanced by home advantage which may mean a lot given the distance Prestatyn have to travel. So I can't separate the sides either and a cagy, low scoring draw is a plausible scenario.
  11. Wales on Friday (Saturday to follow...) A couple of bookies have priced up the Cymru South match between Taff's Well and Goytre. Both are well out of form but Goytre are still 4/7. However, Taff's Well 11/10 double chance looks statistically worth taking but is too short for me to take a risk on two sides I know little about, especially as Goytre are the higher team. In the cup, Flint v Colwyn Bay could be a cracker. Flint are a distant second behind Prestatyn, and haven't fully convinced me the couple of times I've seen them, and their recent draw at struggling Porthmadog despite being two up in the dying stages cost me a few pence Bay are nicely positioned in the top half but again, having seen them twice, I'd have Flint as favourites; not quite 11/20 favourites and although tempted by the 5/4 Bay/draw I've decided on the road I'd want longer odds to have Bay avoiding defeat. Penybont host Cardiff Met. Cardiff should progress but both sides have been on reasonable runs recently and the prices look about right. Finally, Ammanford host Caernarfon. We've discussed Caernarfon's poor form on this forum and I'd like to be brave and oppose them, but again the prices look about right. So, no bets for me tonight.
  12. The second three Welsh games... Cardiff Met v Caernarfon: A few weeks ago I'd have taken Caernarfon for this, but the students' upturn in form - including a deserved win at TNS - and Caernarfon's own dip in form will see me stay away. Newtown v Airbus: Newtown's only defeats in eight have come against the top two and Airbus haven't won in seven, including some comprehensive defeats. However, that's reflected in the price which puts me off, in addition to Newtown needing a point to qualify for the Championship Group which puts a lot of pressure on the home side. TNS v Connah's Quay: The top two meet. There is only a point between them so the Nomads have more or less matched TNS stride for stride. I watched the return game on the box, where he Nomads fully deserved their draw. As the table has them evenly matched, I find it difficult to see why the hosts are around 1/2; I'd have them 4/5 at the very longest and probably nearer evens. So, I'm opposing TNS (Nomads/draw) at Betway's 11/8. As they'll play each other twice more a strategic draw might be acceptable to both sides rather than risk defeat, so this could be a cagy match with both sides settling for a low scoring draw; a draw and under 2.5 is around 4/1, although as I've already put a bet on I've not taken it.
  13. Some thought on some Wales games, after a break from betting following a busy Christmas period. First, Bet365 has priced up Friday's games in the North and South which all look about right to me so I'm not investing. Aberystwyth v Penybont: I saw Aber spring a surprise by gaining a deserved victory at Caernarfon last week. Although the strong wind was a leveller to some extent and Caernarfon are struggling with injuries, I was still impressed with Aber. I've been critical of them this season, but against Caernarfon they threw in three new signings and put in easily the best performance of the four (including two on TV) I've seen this season and the win was definitely no fluke. They now face strugglers Penybont who themselves are having a relative upturn in form, with no defeat in three. Despite that I liked the look of Aberystwyth; I'd have liked 6/4 but Betway's 11/8 still seems to me to sit just the right side of value so I've taken it. Bala v Cefn Druids: Bala are probably out of the title race but can't relax as they'll want to push for an automatic Europa League place after missing out in the play-offs last year. Druids' good form has come to an abrupt end with no win in four, although two defeats against TNS are forgivable. I'll probably be there (as part of a double header with Corwen, just up the road from Bala with a 2pm start) and as I like to have an interest in games I'm at I've taken Bala at Sky's 8/15, although I think that's way too short. Like @Bang on, I think Barry should have too much for Carmarthen. I'm staying away though because I'm still not convinced Barry have their consistency back, and also because Carmarthen shown a slight improvement in recent weeks which makes the price on Barry seem short. Other three matches to follow.
  14. I'm not taking part in the Welsh game; Caernarfon should win but their disappointing performance last time out, and the price, put me off. I look forward to @StevieDay1983's review to see if that changes my mind! I have got an interest in Flint's game at Porthmadog on Saturday in the north. I got Bet365's over-generous 13/8 on Flint which has come in, but there might still be legs in the 10/11 (my price is around 4/6 to 5/6). I've seen Porth (my local side, albeit a very scenic 30 minute drive) four times this season. Performances have improved a bit following an awful start, particularly after changing managers. Results haven't yet caught up with only one home win, and that against 9-man Ruthin, although Porth looked the better side when scores were even. Porth can raise their game; I saw a deserved success at Colwyn Bay, but so far that's the exception rather than the rule and one of only three league wins this season. Flint on the other hand are second, with thirteen wins from nineteen. I watched a draw at Bangor; although fortunate to get a draw on the night both sides looked high quality (for the division) and a cut above the strugglers. I hope Porth stay up because I've got a soft spot for them, but it will take one of their better performances to get a result in this game. I'm at Wrexham tomorrow to see the footballing love of my life, Aldershot, for my local away game.
  15. Another brief post from me as I'm still doing Xmas and new year. I'm probably going to Bala tonight but my bet is on Wednesday's match. Penybont and Carmarthen are equally matched in terms of points and form etc etc. I think the odds favour the home side to much; I give the visitors about a 35% chance of winning making the 2/1 and lengthening for a Carmarthen win too long. Just. So a value bet rather than a likely winner.