Holy Grail or Wholly Fail?

[harry_rag]

With the occasional post using the "holy grail" hook to attract attention I thought I'd post some thoughts and a question.

If I ever found a genuine "HG" I'm pretty sure I wouldn't reveal it on here or post many of my bets. I also wouldn't come on to do any of the "cock inflating" hinting and teasing that we occasionally see. Ultimately I'd keep it to myself to preserve the edge because a genuine edge is obviously a fragile and valuable thing.

It's my view that if there is a HG to be found it will involve selling on the spreads. As most people want to buy a thrill (e.g. bet on lots of goals/corners/cards/runs/tries etc.) this is reflected in the prices so that any value is likely to be on the sell side. As Kevin Pullein often points out, the best bargains are often to be found on the bets that no-one wants to place rather than the ones that are obvious and appeal to the majority. Also, most people are more inclined to overestimate how many of these things there will be in a game/match.

In the early days of spread betting (pre-internet and the wide availability of detailed statistics) there were some crazy prices offered, e.g. corners might have been 16-17 or even higher. The opportunity to blindly sell total corners at 16 in every game would yield a substantial guaranteed profit in the long run. Over time the firms and the punters got a better understanding of things, shrewder punters started to sell clearly wrong prices and the markets settled at a point much closer to reality. Despite that, the greater demand from buyers continues to inflate prices to a degree (remember Muppet's successful HG corners thread which ran for years).

So all that gets me to pondering, are there certain markets in certain sports where one could make a profit by blindly selling? Or, perhaps slightly more likely, by applying a limited set of filters such as minimum price and maximum "market" spread width? To give an entirely hypothetical example:

Sell player performance in cricket as long as sell price is 40 or more and spread width is 1 or less. So if a player is 40-44 with both firms that would be no bet but if one firm went 43-47 then that would signal a sell at 43 (as the market price would be 43-44 and the spread width just 1).

Assuming anyone makes it this far (I appreciate there aren't that many spread aficianados on here) the question I'd welcome feedback on is:

Are there any markets that you think are worth looking at from the point of view of the spreads always tending to be on the high side, offering value for a strategy based on selling?

[Torque]

One bet no-one ever seems to want to place is on 0-0, so maybe with some filters that could be a fruitful strategy - although I remember years ago someone on here tried to turn a profit backing 0-0 but I don't recall it being successful. Probably not much of a useful contribution from me reading this back 

[harry_rag]

Cheers @Torque it's a valid observation. In traditional fixed odds terms people like to bet on goals and positive outcomes so draws generally and 0-0 specifically probably aren't that popular. In spread terms that might translate to selling total goals, the goal rush, shirt numbers or goal minutes.

It's all grist to the mill as, ultimately, it might help me decide which markets to study first. This would be something that needed to be tracked for a while before putting real money down.

[misky]

I've never spread bet. I was asking about games I fancied to be close recently. I hadnt thought of spread-betting. Which I suppose would equate to selling goal supremacy?

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, misky said:

I've never spread bet. I was asking about games I fancied to be close recently. I hadnt thought of spread-betting. Which I suppose would equate to selling goal supremacy?

Not really what you're looking for I don't think. If you sell a team's supremacy at 0.5 and they lose 5-0 then the make up is -5.5, i.e. it can be negative.

[Data]

Selling the spreads has always been my golden rule. Anytime I've been tempted with buying it's always come back to bite me in the end.

Regarding your final question, I've always thought that some of the 'exotic' multi factored bets must only attract thrill seekers, and as such they will probably be looking at the (incorrectly) perceived profit potential of buying. Never actually been motivated enough to follow the theory through though and check the make-ups.

Another area of interest might be any market where the possible up side dwarfs whatever might be gained from selling, e.g. where the spread contains a multiplication factor, first half points * second half points, multi corners, multi bookings, etc.

[harry_rag]

On 10/30/2019 at 9:39 PM, Data said:

Another area of interest might be any market where the possible up side dwarfs whatever might be gained from selling, e.g. where the spread contains a multiplication factor, first half points * second half points, multi corners, multi bookings, etc.

Good point; I know someone who does well selling multi points in rugby though it's still a bit volatile for my taste. Obviously it's the volatility that attracts buyers and puts off sellers, hence the likely value in going low. I used to sell multi corners years ago so it would be interesting to see if there's still value to be had there. So many markets and so little time, one can't track everything! Obviously there's a wealth of results to be had on the spread firms' websites but they're not generous enough to give you the history of the prices, so no option there other than to capture them yourself. I suppose with multi points you can at least track how the average make up compares to the potential maximum (e.g. 40 points in the game could make up as high as 400 or low as zero but will generally be somewhere inbetween).

I'm currently looking at selling NFL touchdown minutes (promising so far) and player performances (less so).

[moggis]

A Holy Grail of betting does in fact exist and it is quite simply to bet on outright markets in accumulators through the season .

It really isn’t hard to learn and one of the great things about it is that even if you give it away on a forum no one listens .

[Zico10]

I do moggis but I'm stuck on the continuos bit! I've done a pre season acca of 7 and 6 teams which has 5 doing really well or decent and 2 doing poorly. So should I be re-betting with the teams doing well included or a completely seperate bet with totally different teams? 

[martin907]

Hi moggis, interested in your take on accas, what sort do you concentrate on?  Top sides e.g. top 4 in the main leagues, specific teams or is it more stats based.  How many games in an acca do you find works best and what sort of % win rate do you get?

[moggis]

So sorry to reply only three years later ! I was on here trying to find a really good article about outright sports betting by someone with Blue in their name . The short answer is you should be betting on a variety of markets and build up a portfolio of positions. Also betting from preseason is too early in my opinion. 
Sorry once again ?

[moggis]

On 11/26/2019 at 12:51 PM, martin907 said:

Hi moggis, interested in your take on accas, what sort do you concentrate on?  Top sides e.g. top 4 in the main leagues, specific teams or is it more stats based.  How many games in an acca do you find works best and what sort of % win rate do you get?

Hi really sorry to take so long to reply . It’s definitely not stats based . I trade the markets and I myself put a lot of selections in my bets but I’d recommend 6-8 . Most of my selections really are blindingly obvious-either favourites or second favourites- and this really does work