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The Equaliser

Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies

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On 8/18/2019 at 10:01 AM, The Equaliser said:

This equals £16 staked in total today.  Incidentally, should one of my first leg doubles blow out and I’m around I will place a £2 win double using the second leg selection with the next strongest selection available.  This is part of my overall strategy.  I am able to do this twice today to make up my full £20 wager for the day.  For obvious reasons any wins or losses have to be off the book figures as I cannot give the revised selections out properly in advance

 

On 8/23/2019 at 11:49 AM, The Equaliser said:

As it happened I did not lose on the day as I laid Gennady for £21.05 @ 1.47 which somehow got matched  (I do this for all my 2nd leg doubles candidates. I don’t mind shaving £9.89 off a winning double). Anyway, it doesn’t count for my published figures.   

 

27 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I did get my money back on a back/lay bet on Green Power.  I had a bit of a shock when the race went to a photo.  I wasn’t quick enough to back the other horse but luckily my horse won by a nose.  It doesn’t count for my published figures but it means a lot to me.   

 

 

On 8/23/2019 at 11:49 AM, The Equaliser said:

I do this for all my 2nd leg doubles candidates.

I'm a bit confused mate, you really should not mention the extra bets that are not in the figures. It makes your profit and loss a bit of a waste of time to be honest.
On one hand you had a lay bet on your second horse and then all of a sudden you backed one the next time? Both luckily ending up in your favour.

You said you do this on all your second leg candidates? so does this mean all of the ones you don't mention are losers??

I'm not being funny but if your going to publish P/L figures they have to be accurate on this site as other members may decide to follow you and it can be a bit misleading.

We all know Multiple bets are tricky and create losing runs, it looks from the outside that you are trying to justify your losing days, good luck.

:ok

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@BillyHills Hi Billy, I am sure you are a busy guy but I need to emphasise that ALL my P&L figures are accurate because I do not include the profits or losses on my side bets.  If you care to look you will see this even from my latest result where I say I got my money back BUT still showed the doubles and trebles bets as a £20 loss and deducted it from my August profit figures.

Fair enough that my sideline chat may be causing confusion but I am only human after all and was just letting people know that I did not lose out on the day.

However, the comments that you picked up on are indeed part of my overall strategy.  I don't like losing just as much as anyone else doesn't like losing and so when things go wrong I try to redress a losing situation.  In effect what this means is that I will add up to a maximum of 50% investment stakes if necessary so as to either make a small profit or break even on the day.

I will include a standard paragraph in future underneath the results figures to show how I manage my multiples when things start to go wrong.  I will not report on any of the results associated with my recovery bets as this seems to be confusing.  I do feel that readers of my page should be aware that I don't just leave things as they are when things go wrong and that I am trying to still get out with either a small profit or break even on the day in a very managed way by limiting my efforts to just 50% stakes of my initial multiples investment.

I hope that you will find thsi acceptable 

PS Does anyone do your £20 daily challenge; it looked like I was the only one when I had a go last week?

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

@BillyHills Hi Billy, I am sure you are a busy guy but I need to emphasise that ALL my P&L figures are accurate because I do not include the profits or losses on my side bets.  If you care to look you will see this even from my latest result where I say I got my money back BUT still showed the doubles and trebles bets as a £20 loss and deducted it from my August profit figures.

PS Does anyone do your £20 daily challenge; it looked like I was the only one when I had a go last week?

I know you dont include the winnings but you only tell us you had a side bet when they win it seems. I'm sure you have had others that didn't come off so i think its unfair to say anything about them, that was my point. Unless of course they are the only side bets you have had this month? But somewhere you said you do it all the time?

You dont understand that people will follow your bets on a public forum and will feel hacked off when they have lost and then see you claim to have had a secret bet to get back your losses.

Anyway im not going to argue about it just stick to the point mate:ok

 

*If you look plenty have a go in the challenge throughout the week.:ok

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@BillyHills Point taken.  I will not comment on my side bets in future; I will just highlight the strategy.

I'm sure I won one of your daily challenge bets about a week ago, however I was the only one who wrote up on that day.  It seemed to me that it was unfair to win your £20 when there were no other challengers.  If I did win it I would like you to send the money to a charity for the benefit of gamblers with addiction to gambling.  It would only be a fun rivalry thing for me to do.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

@BillyHills Point taken.  I will not comment on my side bets in future; I will just highlight the strategy.

Its not a competition mate, its just a fun thread where people have different ways in using £20 for a bet.
Its not a challenge against each other, just for a bit of fun to see how much you could win for a £20 outlay.

:ok

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Two doubles and one treble today.

Not a lot of my type of races today.  Too many short-priced favourites and, as you know, I don’t bet in class 6 or above races.  I am posting up my bets very early as I believe that the likes of “Country” and others will be shortened up too much by our beloved layers come tomorrow morning.

Doubles:

(A)   2.20 Yar (5) Sudona 3/1, 3.00 Gdwd (5) Country 11/4  = £4 v £60.00

(B)   5.20 Gdwd (2) Zac Brown 10/3, 5.50 Gdwd (3) Lightening Dance = £4 V £56.32

Treble:

(1)    2.20 Yar Sudona, 3.0 Gdwd Country and 5.20 Gdwd Zac Brown = £2 V £130.00

Total = £10 staked today.

Results Update:

One winner and no doubles which are not good results for a Saturday   

Hence, £20 loss on the day

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trrxies add £256.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,475.57 C/Fwd ROI N/A

 

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

@BillyHills Ah OK,  I didn't understand.  I will post my £20 selections up from Monday.  Do I leave you to work out returns or can I just post up my returns based upon my pre-published figures?

Its a DIY thread mate, I dont admin that thread.

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An extra double today.

I see that Country is a non-runner today.  I had 5 selections last night so I am adding another double so as to include 2.20 Yar (5) Sudona 10/3 and 5.40 Yar (3) Global Hope 10/3 = £4 v £75.08.

My initial double has now become a single bet with a potential return of £16

Total = £14 staked today.

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

After dismissing class 6 races where horses seem to take it turns to win their races I struggled to find 8 selections from a total of 35 races.  The bookies seem to want it all ways.  They shorten up the prices on favourites in a lot of races which means that if you lay the favourites they win and if you back them they lose.  My history of laying favourites is not good, however, I can’t see Teaser winning the 3.15 at Cartmel.  It doesn’t jump that well and it quite often jumps to the right.  Not a clever thing to do on a sharp left-handed track.

 I placed my bets last night and all my selections have drifted in price.  Thank God for BOG.

Doubles:

(A)   2.45 Rip (5) Highwaygrey 5/1, 4.25 Cart (2) Double Treasure 11/4  = £4 v £90.00

(B)   2.25 Sou (7) Gorgeous General  7/2. 3.35 S(4) Fantasy Keeper 5/2 = £4 V £63.00

(C)   2.0 Chep (6) Gambon 3/1, 3.15 Cart (5) Nietzsche 3/1 = £4 v £64

(D)   4.30 Rip (4) Alfred Richardson, 5.0 Cart (5) Justatenner 7/2 = £4 v £117.00

Treble:

(1)    2.25 Sou Gorgeous General, 2.45 Rip Highwaygrey and 4.25 Cart Double Treasure = £2 v £202.50

(2)    2.0 Chep Gambon, 3.15 Cart Nietzsche and 3.35 Sou Fantasy Keeper = £2 v £112.00

Total = £20 stakes

Results Update:

Three seconds and a third with one non-runner yesterday so a little unlucky.  I was going to criticise Hayley Turner for not winning on Lightening Dance but after watching the race I don’t think that the way the horse ran that she did anything wrong

Hence, £14 loss on the day

riginal Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trrxies add £242.96 August Doubles and trebles

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Three doubles and two trebles today.

I can only find six selections for today.  Should be interesting

 I have placed my bets early doors as I believe my prices will shorten.  I can always fall back on BOG.

Doubles:

(A)   3.35 Rip (4) Benadaled 11/4, 4.35 Rip (4) Morning Duel 11/4 = £4 v £56.24

(B)   3.15 Eps (2) Poyle Vinnie 4/1, 6.30 Muss (1) How Bizarre 6/1 = £4 V £140.00

(C)   4.05 Rip (1) Betsy Trotter 11/4, 4.20 Eps (1) Swift Approval 4/1 = £4 v £75

Trebles:

(1)    3.15 Eps Poyle Vinnie, 3.35 Rip Benadaled and 4.35 Rip Morning Duel = £2 v £140.62

(2)    4.05 Rip Betsy Trotter, 4.20 Eps Swift Approval and 6.30 Muss How Bizarre = £2 v £262.50

Total = £16 stakes

Results Update:

Another bout of seconditis yesterday, four seconds and a third.

Hence, £20 loss on the day

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trrxies add £222.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,441.57

C/Fwd ROI N/A

 

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@MCLARKE I don't keep a track on the selections from a singles point of view.  I suspect that they do not make a profit.  My strategy is to combine well fancied selections at a price of at least 5/2 (3/1) + preferably into doubles and trebles in the hope that I can couple them together so as to make a decent profit when this occurs.  I am not a lover of singles bets; I find doubles and trebles much more exciting.  If it means a lot to you I will record say a notional £10 on each (I won't be backing them) throughout September and let you know the comparison between win bets versus doubles and trebles.  

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I agree with you that doubles and trebles are more exciting, if you can accept the long losing runs. However if the horses do not make a profit backed as singles then there is no logic as to why they would make a profit being backed as doubles and trebles.

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@MCLARKE Very interesting point that you make about if my selections do not make a profit if backed singularly then there is not logical that that they will make a profit in doubles and trebles.  I would love to see some figures to prove it.  It would appear that my August figures support the opposite and I can produce figures to show that two horses at 3/1 and 4/1 in a double can at least do as well as backing them in singles.

 

 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

I placed one double bet on my strongest selections last night which has proved to be the right thing to do.  What I didn’t realise was that “Sportsbook” DO NOT offer BOG when one places bets the night before.  Luckily I spotted it and waited until today to get BOG on my other selections.  I have taken 15/8 about Dantes View which is against my religion, however,  its price is mitigated somewhat by a better price I have got for Luis Vaz de Tore

Doubles:

(A)   3.40 Mus (2) Caustic Love 11/4, 7.55 KM (2) The Pinto Kid 9/4 = £4 v £48.72

(B)   3.50 Cat (4) LuizVaz De Tore 9/2, 4.20 Catt (1) Dantes View 15/8 = £4 V £60.00

(C)   5.15 Worc (5) Wolfcatcher 9/4, 6.45 Worc (2) the Pinto Kid 9/4 = £4 v £60.64

(D)   .40 Mus (8) Super Julian 7/1, 5.25 Catt (7) Redosczorro 7/2 = £4 v £144.00

Trebles:

(1)    3.40 Muss Caustic Love,  3.50 Cat Luiz Vaz de Tore and 7.55 KM The Pinto Kid = £2 v £102.24

(2)    4.20 Cat Dantes View, 5.15 Worc Wolfcatcher and 6.45 Worc Maria Magdalena = £2 v £87.20

Total = £20 stakes

Results Update:

One winner and two seconds today so no double to report.

Hence, £16 loss on the day

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trixies add £206.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,425.57

C/Fwd ROI N/A

 

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Basic statistics will show that if you do not make a profit backing as singles you will not make a profit backing as doubles or trebles.

A true 4/1 chance will win 1 out of 5 races.

Back these 4/1 chances as doubles and you will have a success once in every 25 bets. Back as trebles and you will have a success once in every 125 bets.

The ROI will be the same every time.

Your August profits prove nothing as you do not know whether you would have made a profit backing as singles. Also you seem to have ignored the losses in July.

 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

I don’t like some of the short prices I have accepted today but having done the work and in my bid to improve on profits for August I submit my selections for today

Doubles:

(A)   1.50 Ffos (4) Gilt Edge 9/4, 2.10 Car (3) Black Caspian 4/1= £4 v £65.00

(B)   3.10 Car (2) Kermouster 7/4, 3.40 Carl (7) we Owen a Dragon 2/1 = £4 V £33.00

(C)   2.30 Chlm (6) desert Fox 9/2, 4.10 Carl (6) Royal Shaheen 10/3 = £4 v £95.32

(D)   1.30 Chlm ((2) Hashtagmetoo 5/2, 2.40 Carl (6) Gale Force Maya 2/1 = £4 v £42.00

Trebles:

(1)    1.50 Ffos Gilt Edge, 2.10 Carl Black Caspian and 3.10 Carl Kermouster  = £2 v £82.50

(2)    2.30 Chlm Desert Fox, 3.40 Carl We Owen a Dragon and 4.10 Carl Royal Shaheen = £2 v £143.00

Total = £20 stakes

Results Update:

One winner, two seconds and a third yesterday; no double two seconds today so no double.  Caustic Love and The Pinto Kid were awful disappointments.

 £20 loss on the day

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trixies add £186.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,405.57

C/Fwd ROI N/A

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@MCLARKE

Let’s say that your criteria flags up two horses in different races that you feel have an excellent chance of winning today.  The  selection in the earlier race is forecast at 3/1 and the later runner is forecast at 4/1.  Despite the difference in price you can’t see any difference between their chances of winning today.

Since you back single bets only you place £10 to win on the 3/1 shot and also £10 to win on the 4/1 shot.

If both win you take home £70 profit on the day. Well done. If the 3/1 shot only wins you collect £30.  If the 4/1 shot only wins you win £40 = £40 profit on the day. If both lose you lose £20 on the day.

Now, let’s assume that instead of backing singles I place  £10 win double on both your selections.  If the first selection loses I am no worse off than you because I can place £10 to win on the second horse at 4/1.

But, let’s say that the first horse wins at 3/1.  The potential return for the double is £40 @ 4/1 = £160 + stake of £40 = £200 less £10 outlay = £190.00

I could lay the second horse at 4/1 which would get matched for say £31.60 @ 5.0 = £30.02 if it loses or minus £126.40 should it win.  If it loses then I have the same profit that you have of £30 having won on your first selction.

If it wins then I have £190 less £124.60 less £10 for the doubles stake = £55.40

Hence,you are right that there is a difference of £15 i.e £70 -£55 by backing singles and trying to adjust for the singles equivalent in respect of a doubles bet.

However, when I make my doubles selections I am confident about getting a good run from my selections; there is no way that I would lay the second horse at 4/1.  With a the potential return above I would put in a lay bet for £10.53 @ 2.10 = £10 if matched and loses or -£11.58 if the horse should win.  If it wins then my winning double now becomes £190 less £11.58 = £178.42 profit instead of your £70.0-profit.  This is just me and the way I operate; I am happy to accept a nil loss versus a £30 profit for a single win.

By the way you will see that I proposed a £10 win double and not £20.  This is because if the first leg failed then I would regard it as chasing losses to try and recover any extra money.

I am not ignoring July losses my friend; they sit there as a painful reminder each day in my results update.  This was a different strategy based upon singl  daily Trixie bets for a total of £20 which went wrong because long losing sequences and insufficient numbers of selections.

I hope that some of this helps.

 

Edited by The Equaliser

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OK. I suppose we all have different ways of operating. I wish you luck with your approach.  I'm surprised you lay horses because I thought that you were after the thrill of the big wins rather than small but regular profits.

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@MCLARKE when I started these threads back in June I was hoping to pay for Trixies and subsequently Doubles and trebles using either "Lay" bets or back to lay bets.  The single lay bets were a failure and the back/lay bets were in part successful.  I love to take out a kind of insurance bet to cover myself if there is a good chance of mitigating losses. Yesterday I laid Redrosczerro for £21.05 at 1.47 to cover £20 as the first leg of my double was a non-runner. It meant that I could cover my daily outlay but only make £5 if it won.  Strangely enough it got matched at 1.39 because of a non runner even though it got beaten 2.75 lengths.  Contrast this with The Pinto Kid that I laid for £21.05@ 2.10 it finished 6th beaten 3 lengths at 5/2 and my price was not matched.  I think that it was because it was an evening meeting which did not have much market interest. 

Hence although I do like the thrill of big wins I retain common sense in managing my betting bank. 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

I liked Fast and Free in the 3.05 at Thirsk but 11/8 is not my cup of tea so I had to reschedule my bets.

Doubles:

(A)   2.30 Thsk ( (7) Maid In Manhatten 2/1, 4.45 Thsk ( (5) Purgatory 11/4 £4 v £45.00

(B)   7.25 Ham ((10) Deinonychus 7/2, 8.15 NC (8) Smugglers Creek 13/2 = £4 V £135.00

(C)   4.15 Thsk( 9) Saluti 13/25, 5.15 Thsk (2) My Ukelele 11/4 = £4 v £112.48

(D)   3.30 bang( 5) Zolfo 13/2, 6.55 Ham (10) Paths of Glory 6/1 = £4 v £210.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.30 Thsk Maid In Manhhaten, 4.45 Thsk Purgatory and 8.15 NC Smugglers Creek = £2 v  £168.74

(2)    4.15 Thsk Saluti, 5.15 Thsk My Ukelele and 7.25 Ham Deinonychus = £2 v £253.12

Total = £20 stakes

Results Update:

Five winners yesterday but only two were combined in a double which I feel was a bit unlucky.  The double paid £56 because Gale Force Mayer being returned at 3/1 instead of 2/1

Hence profit = £56 -£20 = £36

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trixies add £222.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,441.57

C/Fwd ROI N/A

 

 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

Last day of the month so I can’t lose in August but obviously getting passed the July Trixie loss is a challenge.

I like Oh This Is Us 2.10 Chs & Tis Marvelous 3.15 Beverley but have excluded them because I feel that their prices are too short

Doubles:

(A)   2.25 San (8) Country 2/1 (yuk), 4.10 San (1) Modhim 11/4 =£4 v £45.00

(B)   3.05 N.Ab (6) Majestic Touch 11/4, 5.25 N.Ab (10) Floral Queen 11/4 = £4 V £56.24

(C)   2.05 Bev (4) Desert Icon 3/1, 4.40 Wolv (1) Wise Words 11/4 = £4 v £60.00

(D)   3.55 Ches(3) Growl 7/2, 4.10 San (3) Forbidden Land 5/1)  = £4 v £108.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.25 San Country, 3.05 N.Ab Majestic Touch and 5.25 N.AB Floral Queen = £2 v  £97.50

(2)    2.05 Bev Desert Icon, 3.55 Ches Growl and 4.40 Wolv Wise Words = £2 v £135.00

Total = £20 stakes

Results Update:

Two winners yesterday but not coupled so no profit made

Loss =£20

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trixies add £202.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,421.57

C/Fwd ROI N/A

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Results Update and moving forward from September 2019

No winners today hence a loss of £20.

Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July  Trixies add £182.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,401.57

What all this in effect means is that I started on 26th May 19 with a bank of £500 and it increased it from July 1st to £2,500.

The original bets were £1 selections that were £4.00 Trixies.  These made £38.61

I increased the betting bank to £2,500 on 1st July 19 (£2538.61 including May/June profits) and went on to make £5 selections that were £20 Trixies for the rest of the month.  The result in July was a £320 loss.

In August I changed tack and switched to backing up to eight selections in doubles and trebles, £4 doubles and £2 trebles.  These made a profit of £182.96 for the month.

The net effect of all this is +£38.61 - £320.00 + £182.96 = Minus £98.43.

MOVING FORWARD FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST 2019

I didn’t do too bad in August and was perhaps a little unlucky not to have wiped out the July Trixie losses.

This is encouraging me to continue with doubles and trebles from September.  I realise that we have the big field nurseries coming up, the end of the flat and the start of the jumps season, however, I think that I need the continuity of using my strategy so as to cope with the season’s changes.

I do feel that the betting bank has been set too high and so I am reducing it to a 60-day continuous loss of stakes which is £1,200.00.  I was going to choose £1,000 which sits snuggly at 2% risk per day but two months cover appeals to me more.

This being so I am wiping the slate clean and ignoring any brought forward figures.  For any of you who think that I am conveniently forgetting my accumulated loss of £98.43, I am the one who has lost it and won’t be happy until I retrieve it in full.  However, for the benefit of all concerned, I feel it is just best to start afresh and move on.

The rules are still the same.  I try to find well-fancied horse racing selections in races every day under all codes in up to class 5 races (not above).  My aim is to find strongly fancied selections of prices up to 3/1 Plus in what is commonly known as trappy or difficult races.  I should mention that I purposely exclude races with short priced favourites and don’t try to take them on either.  The idea is to find horses at the front end of the market that should have a good chance of winning their race.

I have come to learn that is folly to expect any of these beasts to run up to expectations, hence I figure that if increase my number of selections then just maybe a few of them will do what they are actually supposed to do

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No doubles or trebles today

With only two meetings today I coud only find two qualifying races.  I can’t say that Midnight Gem in 2.10 at Worc fully inspires confidence.  I will put up Hot Ryan in the 3.40 at Worc in the naps competition as I believe that the market  has just gone for the Harry Skelton horse without any proper justification

Results Update:

Fresh start for my doubles and trebles strategy so no adjustment necessary to my opening bank balance

Original Bank £1,200.00

C/Fwd ROI N/A

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Good luck with this.

In terms of doubles v singles it reminds me of the story of the man who was due to have an audience with the Pope in Rome. Just before his audience the pope's aide told him that the pope had died in the night so the audience would not go ahead. It would be officially announced later that day.

The man had a friend back in England who was a gambler so he phoned him and told him to bet all his money on the death of the pope. The bookies offered odds of 500/1.

When he got back home he excitedly asked his friend how much they had won.

"Nothing" his friend said.

"What do you mean, nothing !"

His friend said "I had him in a double with the Archbishop of Canterbury !"

Conclusive proof my friend that singles are better than doubles !

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@MCLARKE I can't agree that a bad fictional story is conclusive proof that singles are better than doubles.  You post up your singles bets on the daily £20 challenge whilst I will post up my doubles and trebles; let's see who comes out on top at the end of the month.  The proof of the pudding is in the eating.  I sincerely wish you the very best of luck 

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Three Doubles and one Treble today

Not many qualifying races today and a couple of them do look very tricky.

Doubles:

(1)    5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 5.40 Hex (1) Melody Of Scotland 7/2 = £4 v £67.48

(2)    6.0 Win ( 10) Look surprised 11/2, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 = £4 v £130.00

(3)    5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 =£4 v £75.00

Treble:

(1)    5.10 Hex Ringaringarosie, 5.40 Hex Melody of Scotland and 7.10 Classical Milano = £2 v £168.74

Total stakes = £16.00

Results Update:

Fresh start for my doubles and trebles strategy so no adjustment necessary to my opening bank balance

Original Bank £1,200.00

C/Fwd ROI N/A

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It was a joke !

I think who comes out on top in the daily challenge will depend on who has the best selections, not whether they are bet as singles or trebles.

Over the long term your ROI will be the same whether you back as singles or doubles.

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@MCLARKE Well OK.  This issue keeps coming up so I will keep a log of your ew single bets and what I will do with mine is to divide the daily number of selections into the total stakes of £20 on the daily challenge and keep a record of the monthly P&L of winners to losers so as to compare the ROI on singles and also on doubles and trebles

 

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