rob in america Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 I'm on the email list of a draw backing handicapper who advocates increasing the stake 50% after each loss until a game ends in a draw. He usually backs the draw on lower odds, around 2.9 to 3.3 or thereabouts in a variety of leagues. According to his records the highest loss streak has been IIRC about six games, with lots of streaks of four and five losses, so allegedly a nice profit due to the staking system. All it would take is the big one, the 12 or 15 game loss streak to wipe out much of ones bankroll however, as the system has no stop loss. I'm always skeptical of progression betting systems (though intrigued by mini ones where you stop after a few losses) though this one is somewhat different in that the staking amount doesn't climb really fast like some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 I did it for a little while on exactly that system. It did work but I did have a reasonably long losing run which spooked me enough to stop. If his longest losing streak is 6 bets it's good going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob in america Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 Zico, what was your criteria for picking likely draws? black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Might as well do the one where you back whatever trap number won the last dog race to win the next one at the same meeting! What could possibly go wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just form study, generally 2 evenly matched teams according to league tables and form tables and teams that didn't score or concede a lot! Nothing too scientific! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Think you're on to something harry! black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Definitely any good draw system will be even more profitable if bets are increased on a loss. There's a couple of Kentucky110 draw queries which I'll be following this season.He has a form of bet increase(multiple) which shows a great profit last two seasons. I'll use his and some of my own mix and match lines this season. black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 just don't do it .. it is just a matter of time when you hit a killing streak. You can calculate that risk. Calculate the number of losses that would destroy you. Then use this formula to see the 1 in X chance that it will actually happen. (1 / P ) ^ n P is the lose probability and n the number of losses that will hurt you badly.. I looked at those staking plans with a bit of maths and it simply can't work as long as you don't have an unlimited bank roll OR are happy with pennies to win. black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 With a 55% win ratio on even money betting ,one should win with bet increases. Kentucky has a limit filter that one can set.Personally I stop after 3 losses on a line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 yea if you got a 55% on evens then you got a profitable system there so of course anything you do with stakes is fine often people though think they can 'create' a profitable system through a 'clever' (lol) staking plan. That won't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 Thought I'd chip in here, I started a thread in here about the historical football (and horse racing) data site I put together. I've been following a couple of the strategies, especially concerning draws. If you take a look at the following, it has a maximum stake parameter that can be tweaked to stop stakes getting out of hand. Currently, the longest losing run is 9 matches. Matches played on the same day have the same stake and the stake resets following a winning day. Multiplier is also set to increase 50% on a losing day. https://bit.ly/2xTGBI2 The thread here on PL is called 'Free Football Analysis Tool', in Betting Systems and Strategy, if you haven't already seen it. All the best. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 The average WIN price of the 698 bets in the above link is 3.21. The strike rate is 38.68% so, to level stakes, it results in a 24.20% ROI. When factoring in the stake multiplier of 1.5x per losing day that ROI increases to 34.21% albeit with an increased risk. It's already been pointed out above, if you have a win rate of more than 1/Ave SP then you're going to have a winner with level stakes. The decision is then to choose the staking plan that best suits to limit losses when experiencing a sustained losing run whilst maximising profits. I'm not sure this modified Martingale strategy is the best but I haven't been able to build in any other strategies due to lack of spare time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, keef75 said: The average WIN price of the 698 bets in the above link is 3.21. The strike rate is 38.68% so, to level stakes, it results in a 24.20% ROI. When factoring in the stake multiplier of 1.5x per losing day that ROI increases to 34.21% albeit with an increased risk. It's already been pointed out above, if you have a win rate of more than 1/Ave SP then you're going to have a winner with level stakes. The decision is then to choose the staking plan that best suits to limit losses when experiencing a sustained losing run whilst maximising profits. I'm not sure this modified Martingale strategy is the best but I haven't been able to build in any other strategies due to lack of spare time. Evening! That’s is very impressive! What is the game selection process for your system (if you don’t mind sharing)? EDIT - sorry should spend some more time with your site first it’s a bit tricky on mobile but I think I discovered the selection criteria is the SP the betfair sp? cheers liero Edited September 29, 2018 by liero1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 Hi @liero1, if you click on the blue 'Filters' button just above the results you will see the parameters for the set. If you hover over any of the option labels you should see an explanation of what it does. You can create your own systems and save them - scroll to the very bottom of the page and enter a name for the set. You can then load it up (or any of the other saved sets) by clicking the 'Load Set' button next to the filter button and finding it in the lists, or searching for it. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 I was just about to mention that the eligible games for today for this set were all losers but the third one (Figueirense v Atletico) just equalised with 13 minutes to go. Fingers crossed it stays at 2-2. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, keef75 said: I was just about to mention that the eligible games for today for this set were all losers but the third one (Figueirense v Atletico) just equalised with 13 minutes to go. Fingers crossed it stays at 2-2. Cheers! great work. I will spend some considerable time with this next week. Happy to share something similar for horse racing. But more later cheers! Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 There's a big horse racing section too. Check out the favourites part of that. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, keef75 said: There's a big horse racing section too. Check out the favourites part of that. Cool! Last question for the night, is this all based on betfair SP? Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 Horse racing is Betfair. There's a commission parameter on that. Football uses Cybet data as that's the only place I've found that has easy to use league position data with odds. liero1 and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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