2018 Italian Grand Prix

[BillyHills]

Monza, Sunday 

Straight off the back of another dramatic Belgian GP we move to Monza, possibly the most iconic circuit on the F1 schedule. Monza is the quickest track and also one of the oldest having been built in 1922. The circuit was on the original Formula One calendar back in 1950 along with Silverstone and Monaco.

This is yet another place where Mercedes have dominated in recent years and Lewis Hamilton has been on pole for the last four renewals and won three of them. You have to say though that Ferrari seem to have the edge at the moment and although they haven't won here since 2010 its no surprise to see Sebastian Vettel at the head of the market. (10/11 bet365).

Red Bull are sacrificing their chances by having more engine parts fitted, hence grid penalties for Riccardo at least, not sure about Verstappen as yet. Red Bull just want to be fighting fit for Singapore in a few weeks. This leaves another 50/50 scrap and whoever gets pole will be heavy favourites to hit the chequered flag first.

So at the moment you get 10/11 Vettel and 2/1 Hamilton, you could argue that backing Hamilton at 9/4 for a pole position is a better bet, Vettel is 4/6 for pole. I think if Vettel is fastest on Saturday he will be 4/7 for the race on Sunday.

No Safety Car for 6 years! now that is a refreshing change, you can bet 5/6 each of two at the moment so the value obviously lies with 'No' this week. Very few retirements here recently so the Overs will be popular, I cant quite believe its 10/11 for over 15.5 at bet365 so we will take that before they change their minds.

Early bet:

Over 15.5 Finishers 10/11 bet365

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

bet365 prices

[BillyHills]

Italian GP

Great news for Ferrari as the front row will be Raikkonen and Vettel, probably not in the order you would expect but it doesnt really matter as Ferrari are past masters at getting their number 1 driver in the right place by the end of the race.
That explains why Vettel is the 4/6 favourite from second on the grid, never heard of before. Raikkonen is a 5/2 chance, he may as well be 50/1 because unless Vettel crashes out on the first bend or something he wont be winning this race. Hope he proves me wrong! Wouldn't it be fun if Kimi refused to let Vettel past.

The Mercs are on the second row and its a 4 cornered affair as Red Bull just aren't competitive around here. Ricciardo will once again start at the back of the field alongside Hulkenberg. Ricciardo is 10/11 to get into the top 6 and will be fun watching him try so worth a nibble at the price.

Fernando Alonso had another dramatic session today and he seems to be high on adrenaline since he announced his retirement. He looks like he wants to prove a point and may be trying too hard, he's an 11/4 shot to retire from the race and that looks a sporting bet to me in the absence of anything else which looks like a value bet.

Bets

Over 15.5 Finishers 10/11 bet365
D.Ricciardo Top 6 10/11 Hills
F.Alonso Not To Finish 11/4 bet365

 

 

[real55555]

10 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Italian GP

Great news for Ferrari as the front row will be Raikkonen and Vettel, probably not in the order you would expect but it doesnt really matter as Ferrari are past masters at getting their number 1 driver in the right place by the end of the race.
That explains why Vettel is the 4/6 favourite from second on the grid, never heard of before. Raikkonen is a 5/2 chance, he may as well be 50/1 because unless Vettel crashes out on the first bend or something he wont be winning this race. Hope he proves me wrong! Wouldn't it be fun if Kimi refused to let Vettel past.

The Mercs are on the second row and its a 4 cornered affair as Red Bull just aren't competitive around here. Ricciardo will once again start at the back of the field alongside Hulkenberg. Ricciardo is 10/11 to get into the top 6 and will be fun watching him try so worth a nibble at the price.

Fernando Alonso had another dramatic session today and he seems to be high on adrenaline since he announced his retirement. He looks like he wants to prove a point and may be trying too hard, he's an 11/4 shot to retire from the race and that looks a sporting bet to me in the absence of anything else which looks like a value bet.

Bets

Over 15.5 Finishers 10/11 bet365
D.Ricciardo Top 6 10/11 Hills
F.Alonso Not To Finish 11/4 bet365

 

 

Hi again Billy.

1. Didn't expect there hasn't been any safety car in Monza for the past 6 years. I thought there would be high occurence of safety car on such a high speed track before I saw your statement. Anyway, the over finishers bet looks to be a good bet in most of the races this season. We don't see that much mechanical failures as compared to previous season (especially the mclaren honda era, hehe), and only a first lap chaos in Belgium last week helped to clear the under finishers bet. I'd think if the drivers can avoid the first corner chaos, then the over 15.5 finishers is an almost guaranteed bet, but then again the run from the start to the first corner is quite a long one, and it is a very tight chicane, so I'd expect contacts between cars but whether it will result in retirements. There is chance of a rain as well in the race that will certainly spice things up for the finishers market. I'll skip this bet as I personally do not like to bet on over finishers bet.

2. Good chance for Daniel to finish in the top 6 if he can avoid the first lap chaos. Red Bull again is the best of the rest after Ferrari and Mercedes. On a track where overtaking is quite easy with DRS, I think Daniel should be able to make his way up the field pretty easily until he catches up on the Haas. I'll go with you on this.

3. I'll skip the Alonso bet as well. Just recalling from memory, most of his retirements are from mechanical failures or accident through no fault of his own. Do correct me if I'm wrong as I did not look up any data on this.

 

My bets for this race:

1. Vettel to win @ 1.57 bet365.

I don't think Ferrari will allow Kimi to win unless Vettel retires or Hamilton is in front of Vettel. I think the only threat lies in a clean start and the reliability of the Ferrari. The Ferrari is too quick even if they lose the position to Hamilton at the start, I do not think Hamilton can defend the lead, just like in Belgium where Vettel overtook Hamilton without DRS.

2. Ricciardo to finish in top 6 @ 1.90 bet365

As explained above.

3. Magnussen to finish in the points @ 1.61 bet365

A 'racing incident' ruined both Magnussen and Alonso's qualifying runs, otherwise Magnussen would at least qualify in the top 8 if he is able to get a tidy lap in. Nevertheless, by starting 11th on the grid, he has fresh tyres for the start, as well as a car that is capable of a top 8 finish. At 1.61 is definitely a good value for this bet if he can avoid first lap chaos.

4. Both Red Bulls to finish in the points @ 1.72 bet365 & Both Haas to finish in the points @ 2.25 bet365

In terms of raw pace, the Red Bulls and Haas are the 3rd and 4th ranked teams on the grid. Other than retirements or accidents, I'd expect both cars from these two teams to finish in the points

5. Both cars to be classified - Williams - NO @ 2.37 bet365

We've seen the Williams improved their reliability recently but they've mostly started at the back of the grid, which means they are better placed to avoid first lap incidents. Now, stroll and sirotkin are starting 10th and 12th on the grid in this race, and they are not exactly the sort of drivers which I feel safe to be alongside them going into the first corner when there could be 3-4 drivers squeezing each other into the corner. So I'd expect either one of them to probably retire after the first lap, or otherwise hope for a engine failure due to the time on the throttle for this track

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

@real55555

Great write up mate and good luck with your bets

(Im secretly cheering on Kimi!)

 

[real55555]

5 hours ago, BillyHills said:

@real55555

Great write up mate and good luck with your bets

(Im secretly cheering on Kimi!)

 

Congrats on the finishers bet as well as Alonso's retirement. All my bets lost, just shows you how unpredictable F1 betting is and how we can find value if the result end up in the right side.

I did made a few in-running bets on Hamilton win though as the odds offered were very kind. All the while above 2.00 (even reaching 3.00 at one stage in the first stint when Kimi pulled a 1.5sec lead) before Hamilton made his pitstop.