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Over Complicated?


Data
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In our tireless quest to get a better edge we can easily over-process information so as to see things other punters may miss. But do we therefore lose sight of how valuable oh so simple solutions can often be. I'm an enthusiast of simple triggers, even though often they do not throw up many opportunities in themselves, having a 'portfolio' of such methods can work wonders for the bottom line.

One such dead easy method seemingly overlooked (it must be because it makes profits), is simply this; For league games only, if the home team won their previous league game and the away side lost their previous league game, back the home win. This approach makes consistent profits in English leagues (returns vary when examining other leagues).

It gets even better when you restrict the plan to the top two divisions, Premiership and Championship. For purists (or should that be risk-takers) it can be further refined but maybe it then runs the risk of being seen as back-fitted, engineered to enhance profits. If a further restriction is placed that the home side must have a league position below that of the away side, profits improve again. If we don't push our luck going for odds which are too big, a restriction of a maximum of the home team being no more than 10 league places below their opponents, this method has returned a 60% ROI using Ladbrokes odds(!!) since 2014, with home odds averaging at 2.77

... and what d'ya know, a home win bet pops onto the radar for tomorrow evening 31/01/2017 ~ Stoke to beat Watford. still at 2.25 in many places, but the price is dropping ...

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20 hours ago, Data said:

In our tireless quest to get a better edge we can easily over-process information so as to see things other punters may miss. But do we therefore lose sight of how valuable oh so simple solutions can often be. I'm an enthusiast of simple triggers, even though often they do not throw up many opportunities in themselves, having a 'portfolio' of such methods can work wonders for the bottom line.

One such dead easy method seemingly overlooked (it must be because it makes profits), is simply this; For league games only, if the home team won their previous league game and the away side lost their previous league game, back the home win. This approach makes consistent profits in English leagues (returns vary when examining other leagues).

It gets even better when you restrict the plan to the top two divisions, Premiership and Championship. For purists (or should that be risk-takers) it can be further refined but maybe it then runs the risk of being seen as back-fitted, engineered to enhance profits. If a further restriction is placed that the home side must have a league position below that of the away side, profits improve again. If we don't push our luck going for odds which are too big, a restriction of a maximum of the home team being no more than 10 league places below their opponents, this method has returned a 60% ROI using Ladbrokes odds(!!) since 2014, with home odds averaging at 2.77

... and what d'ya know, a home win bet pops onto the radar for tomorrow evening 31/01/2017 ~ Stoke to beat Watford. still at 2.25 in many places, but the price is dropping ...

An interesting view, @Data. It can explain beginner's luck. Why is it that in the majority of occasions that very first bet you place ends up winning? Even if you don't back the favourite.

I'm still very much a believer that research increases the odds of success. It's not fool proof, of course. I just find my pay outs are far more frequent when I delve into the statistics a lot more. Yes, it can become over-complicated but it still seems to be the most productive method.

Even so, keen for you to track this and keep us updated on your returns over a couple of months. :ok

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Even the simplest of ideas still require the research in order to validate them. For me, and probably many others, almost the best part of the game is the research. I suppose we've all spent countless hours going down ever complex routes only to find that it isn't the answer. Failure? not a bit of it, we've proven that the tactic under examination was not a profitable one and the time spent certainly was not a chore!

Each to his/her own eh?

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I'm a big believer that very often we over complicate things. I've been a punter for over 25 years now but it's only been the last couple of years that I've started to look into ways of making long term and consistent profits from betting. My most successful 'strategy' has been pretty simple but carries a reasonable amount of risk too. My Dad is a weekend football acca gambler. He does it for fun and has a pretty simple formula. He gets the daily mail predictions on a Tuesday, then on the Saturday has a look at their predictions against the league table and normally a last 6 form guide. He then does 2  7/8 timer accas of prices no less than 1/2 with prices as high as 2/1 and an average odds of around 10/11. He gets maybe 1 or 2 a year up so probably breaks about even overall. However I reckon if he did his bets as singles he would have a pretty reasonable return as it's rare that more than half don't win ( I keep meaning to keep a check on it! ). Anyway I suppose the point I'm making is that his 'method' is pretty simple yet probably works as well or better than any of the systems I have come up with! 

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Well a losing bet hardly inspires confidence. However, I did say that simply backing a home win where the home side won their previous league game, and the away side lost theirs. I went on to outline how tinkering with additional filters greatly enhanced profitability.,

The reduced bets method still hold good despite Stoke's failure to support the theory. However, for interest, (and maybe to prove a point) below are this season's base method qualifiers to date (i.e. without the added restrictions)

To date 157 qualifiers, +11.37 points profit to 1 point level stakes. Average home odds of qualifiers 2.08, with a high of 9.00 and a low of 1.09.  Average of winning bets 1.91 (3.00 high, 1.09 low)

date time home (league pos) away (league pos) score Bet365   W/x
08/08/17 19:45 Macclesfield (5) Hartlepool (21) 1-1 2.20   x
12/08/17 15:00 Aldershot (1) Guiseley (17) 6-0 1.45   W
12/08/17 15:00 Gateshead (10) Torquay (17) 3-0 1.75   W
12/08/17 15:00 Leyton (9) Maidstone United (22) 2-0 1.90   W
12/08/17 15:00 Tranmere (4) Sutton UTD (8) 0-1 1.57   x
15/08/17 19:45 Cardiff (1) Sheffield United (12) 2-0 1.95   W
15/08/17 19:45 Middlesbrough (12) Burton (24) 2-0 1.45   W
19/08/17 15:00 Bradford (5) Blackburn (22) 0-1 2.50   x
19/08/17 15:00 Fleetwood Town (4) AFC Wimbledon (17) 2-0 2.10   W
19/08/17 15:00 Woking (12) Leyton (11) 0-2 3.10   x
20/08/17 13:30 Huddersfield (2) Newcastle (17) 1-0 2.80   W
20/08/17 16:00 Tottenham (3) Chelsea (14) 1-2 2.15   x
26/08/17 15:00 Watford (4) Brighton (18) 0-0 2.20   x
26/08/17 15:00 Ipswich (2) Fulham (19) 0-2 3.50   x
26/08/17 15:00 Cambridge (17) Morecambe (12) 0-0 1.90   x
26/08/17 15:00 Swindon (1) Crawley Town (24) 0-3 1.72   x
27/08/17 16:00 Liverpool (6) Arsenal (11) 4-0 2.20   W
02/09/17 15:00 Wycombe (8) Forest Green (19) 3-1 2.05   W
02/09/17 15:00 Leyton (3) Guiseley (22) 4-1 1.60   W
02/09/17 15:00 Sutton UTD (1) Maidenhead United (14) 0-2 1.65   x
02/09/17 15:00 Wrexham (4) Bromley (8) 2-0 1.90   W
09/09/17 15:00 Rotherham (11) Bury (19) 3-2 1.80   W
09/09/17 15:00 Notts County (5) Morecambe (19) 2-0 1.66   W
09/09/17 15:00 Solihull (22) Macclesfield (14) 0-1 3.40   x
12/09/17 19:45 Leeds (2) Birmingham (21) 2-0 1.80   W
12/09/17 19:45 Norwich (17) Burton (22) 0-0 1.44   x
12/09/17 19:45 Q.P.R. (8) Millwall (19) 2-2 2.30   x
12/09/17 19:45 Charlton (2) Wigan (8) 0-3 2.62   x
12/09/17 19:45 Rotherham (11) Walsall (13) 5-1 2.05   W
12/09/17 19:45 Shrewsbury (1) Southend (17) 1-0 2.10   W
12/09/17 19:45 Accrington Stanley (2) Grimsby (19) 1-2 1.90   x
12/09/17 19:45 Colchester (14) Chesterfield (23) 1-1 1.95   x
12/09/17 19:45 Coventry (8) Carlisle (16) 2-0 2.15   W
12/09/17 19:45 Crewe (4) Cambridge (15) 0-1 2.50   x
16/09/17 17:30 Tottenham (5) Swansea (15) 0-0 1.20   x
16/09/17 15:00 Wigan (6) Bristol Rovers (12) 3-0 1.66   W
16/09/17 15:00 Exeter (1) Crewe (10) 3-0 1.90   W
16/09/17 15:00 Bromley (12) Solihull (22) 1-0 1.75   W
23/09/17 15:00 Manchester City (1) Crystal Palace (20) 5-0 1.14   W
23/09/17 15:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers (2) Barnsley (20) 2-1 1.40   W
23/09/17 17:30 Aston Villa (13) Nottingham (10) 2-1 1.70   W
23/09/17 15:00 Shrewsbury (1) Blackburn (11) 1-1 3.10   x
23/09/17 15:00 Luton (4) Chesterfield (23) 1-0 1.50   W
23/09/17 15:00 Notts County (2) Lincoln (10) 4-1 2.90   W
23/09/17 15:00 Aldershot (1) Leyton (13) 2-2 1.85   x
23/09/17 15:00 Maidstone United (7) Gateshead (14) 2-2 1.95   x
26/09/17 19:45 Bradford (3) Fleetwood Town (10) 0-3 1.90   x
26/09/17 19:45 Milton Keynes (11) Northampton (20) 0-0 2.10   x
26/09/17 19:45 Southend (16) AFC Wimbledon (19) 1-0 2.15   W
26/09/17 19:45 Wycombe (10) Crewe (16) 3-2 1.80   W
30/09/17 15:00 Manchester United (2) Crystal Palace (20) 4-0 1.18   W
30/09/17 15:00 Aston Villa (8) Bolton (24) 1-0 1.44   W
30/09/17 15:00 Preston (5) Sunderland (23) 2-2 1.85   x
30/09/17 15:00 Coventry (4) Crewe (18) 1-0 1.70   W
30/09/17 15:00 Stevenage (6) Port Vale (22) 2-0 2.15   W
30/09/17 15:00 Wycombe (8) Barnet (15) 3-1 2.10   W
30/09/17 15:00 Woking (6) Hartlepool (17) 1-1 2.40   x
03/10/17 19:45 Maidstone United (5) Bromley (13) 0-2 1.70   x
04/10/17 19:45 Tranmere (17) Leyton (15) 2-1 1.65   W
07/10/17 15:00 Tranmere (14) Chester (21) 0-0 1.44   x
13/10/17 19:45 Bristol City (4) Burton (21) 0-0 1.44   x
14/10/17 15:00 Fleetwood Town (9) Rochdale (18) 2-2 2.62   x
14/10/17 15:00 Portsmouth (13) Milton Keynes (14) 2-0 1.95   W
14/10/17 15:00 Rotherham (4) Scnuthorpe (8) 2-0 2.20   W
14/10/17 15:00 Wigan (2) Southend (15) 3-0 1.50   W
14/10/17 15:00 Colchester (15) Carlisle (16) 0-1 2.65   x
14/10/17 15:00 Lincoln (10) Cambridge (14) 0-0 1.95   x
14/10/17 15:00 Luton (3) Stevenage (7) 7-1 1.66   W
17/10/17 19:45 Newport (6) Colchester (16) 1-2 2.00   x
21/10/17 15:00 Derby (13) Sheffield Wednesday (12) 2-0 2.20   W
21/10/17 15:00 Crewe (17) Accrington Stanley (5) 0-2 3.25   x
24/10/17 19:45 Eastleigh (16) Solihull (24) 1-2 1.75   x
28/10/17 15:00 Arsenal (5) Swansea (15) 2-1 1.20   W
28/10/17 14:00 Northampton (22) Blackpool (9) 1-0 2.80   W
28/10/17 15:00 Charlton (4) AFC Wimbledon (20) 1-0 1.95   W
29/10/17 16:00 Leicester (14) Everton (18) 2-0 2.04   W
03/11/17 19:45 Wolverhampton Wanderers (1) Fulham (16) 2-0 1.70   W
04/11/17 15:00 Barnsley (19) Birmingham (21) 2-0 2.45   W
04/11/17 17:30 Brentford (15) Leeds (7) 3-1 2.00   W
04/11/17 15:00 Eastleigh (18) Chester (22) 2-2 1.90   x
11/11/17 12:30 Doncaster (17) Rotherham (7) 1-1 2.90   x
11/11/17 15:00 Gillingham (22) Bury (23) 1-1 2.45   x
11/11/17 15:00 Barrow (21) Macclesfield (2) 0-2 2.50   x
18/11/17 15:00 Burnley (7) Swansea (19) 2-0 2.35   W
18/11/17 15:00 Liverpool (5) Southampton (13) 3-0 1.44   W
18/11/17 15:00 Plymouth (23) Oxford (10) 0-4 2.90   x
18/11/17 15:00 Lincoln (8) Coventry (6) 1-2 2.55   x
18/11/17 15:00 Bromley (6) Chester (22) 1-1 2.05   x
18/11/17 15:00 Maidstone United (5) Solihull (24) 1-1 1.70   x
21/11/17 19:45 Sutton UTD (3) Torquay (24) 0-1 1.61   x
25/11/17 15:00 Blackburn (6) Bristol Rovers (17) 2-1 1.61   W
28/11/17 19:45 Derby (6) Ipswich (10) 0-1 1.72   x
29/11/17 19:45 Arsenal (4) Huddersfield (11) 5-0 1.20   W
02/12/17 15:00 Everton (13) Huddersfield (14) 2-0 1.85   W
02/12/17 15:00 Ipswich (9) Nottingham (10) 4-2 2.75   W
02/12/17 17:30 Bristol City (5) Middlesbrough (7) 2-1 2.55   W
03/12/17 16:00 Manchester City (1) West Ham (18) 2-1 1.11   W
09/12/17 15:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers (1) Sunderland (23) 0-0 1.33   x
09/12/17 15:00 Ebbsfleet United (12) Guiseley (23) 4-0 1.60   W
12/12/17 19:45 Burnley (7) Stoke (15) 1-0 2.30   W
12/12/17 20:00 Huddersfield (12) Chelsea (3) 1-3 9.00   x
13/12/17 20:00 Tottenham (6) Brighton (13) 2-0 1.20   W
16/12/17 15:00 Chelsea (3) Southampton (11) 1-0 1.40   W
16/12/17 15:00 Preston (10) Sheffield United (6) 1-0 2.50   W
16/12/17 15:00 Blackburn (3) Charlton (6) 2-0 1.85   W
16/12/17 15:00 Lincoln (6) Accrington Stanley (3) 2-0 2.20   W
18/12/17 20:00 Everton (10) Swansea (20) 3-1 1.80   W
23/12/17 15:00 Manchester City (1) Bournemouth (16) 4-0 1.09   W
23/12/17 15:00 West Ham (15) Newcastle (18) 2-3 2.00   x
23/12/17 15:00 Leeds (7) Hull (19) 1-0 2.00   W
23/12/17 15:00 Preston (9) Nottingham (11) 1-1 1.95   x
23/12/17 15:00 Sunderland (21) Birmingham (24) 1-1 2.10   x
23/12/17 15:00 Peterborough (8) Bury (24) 3-0 1.85   W
23/12/17 15:00 Barnet (22) Cheltenham (15) 0-2 2.62   x
23/12/17 15:00 Crewe (19) Swindon (12) 0-3 3.00   x
26/12/17 13:00 Gillingham (18) Oxford (10) 1-1 2.45   x
26/12/17 15:00 Carlisle (13) Accrington Stanley (7) 3-1 2.40   W
26/12/17 13:00 Leyton (20) Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-0 3.00   W
29/12/17 19:45 Doncaster (13) Rochdale (23) 2-0 2.05   W
30/12/17 15:00 Liverpool (4) Leicester (8) 2-1 1.28   W
30/12/17 15:00 Watford (10) Swansea (20) 1-2 1.83   x
30/12/17 15:00 Middlesbrough (7) Aston Villa (8) 0-1 2.00   x
30/12/17 15:00 Sheffield United (6) Bolton (23) 0-1 1.53   x
30/12/17 15:00 Portsmouth (7) Northampton (22) 3-1 1.61   W
30/12/17 15:00 Carlisle (12) Coventry (7) 0-1 2.60   x
30/12/17 15:00 Lincoln (3) Forest Green (24) 2-1 1.55   W
30/12/17 15:00 Ebbsfleet United (9) Dagenham & Redbridge (7) 1-1 2.70   x
30/12/17 15:00 Leyton (18) Bromley (10) 0-1 2.10   x
30/12/17 15:00 Maidenhead United (11) Fylde (19) 1-2 2.25   x
01/01/18 15:00 Derby (2) Sheffield United (6) 1-1 2.30   x
01/01/18 15:00 Preston (8) Middlesbrough (9) 2-3 2.80   x
01/01/18 17:30 Aston Villa (7) Bristol City (3) 5-0 2.40   W
01/01/18 15:00 Mansfield (9) Carlisle (13) 3-1 2.30   W
01/01/18 15:00 Solihull (24) Maidenhead United (11) 3-1 2.62   W
06/01/18 15:00 Plymouth (16) Bury (24) 3-0 2.37   W
06/01/18 15:00 Accrington Stanley (10) Chesterfield (22) 4-0 1.75   W
13/01/18 15:00 Crystal Palace (14) Burnley (7) 1-0 2.20   W
13/01/18 15:00 Newcastle (13) Swansea (20) 1-1 1.75   x
13/01/18 15:00 Gillingham (16) Rochdale (23) 2-1 2.80   W
13/01/18 15:00 Crawley Town (17) Barnet (24) 2-0 2.40   W
13/01/18 15:00 Wycombe (5) Colchester (9) 3-1 2.05   W
15/01/18 20:00 Manchester United (2) Stoke (18) 3-0 1.20   W
19/01/18 19:45 Derby (2) Bristol City (5) 0-0 2.10   x
20/01/18 15:00 Fulham (8) Burton (22) 6-0 1.45   W
20/01/18 15:00 Q.P.R. (14) Middlesbrough (9) 0-3 3.30   x
20/01/18 12:30 Sutton UTD (3) Dagenham & Redbridge (8) 2-1 2.20   W
20/01/18 15:00 Boreham Wood (6) Dover Athletic (7) 2-3 2.00   x
23/01/18 19:45 Rotherham (7) Bradford (5) 2-0 2.10   W
23/01/18 19:45 Newport (9) Morecambe (19) 1-1 2.05   x
23/01/18 19:45 Fylde (9) Maidstone United (14) 3-0 1.40   W
23/01/18 19:45 Gateshead (15) Woking (16) 1-1 1.53   x
27/01/18 15:00 Brentford (9) Norwich (13) 0-1 2.15   x
27/01/18 15:00 Gillingham (12) Fleetwood Town (13) 2-1 2.75   W
27/01/18 15:00 Dover Athletic (7) Guiseley (23) 2-1 1.61   W
30/01/18 19:45 Coventry (7) Cambridge (15) 3-1 1.85   W
31/01/18 20:00 Stoke (17) Watford (10) 0-0 2.20   x
31/01/18 19:45 Exeter (9) Forest Green (23) 2-0 1.90   W
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Oh!  . . . and something for the weekend, Sir?

date time home (league pos) away (league pos) score Bet365
03/02/18 15:00 Aston Villa (3) Burton (24)   1.40
03/02/18 15:00 Fulham (6) Nottingham (15)   1.66
03/02/18 17:30 Wolverhampton Wanderers (1) Sheffield United (7)   1.70
03/02/18 15:00 Bury (24) Blackpool (19)   2.50
03/02/18 15:00 Charlton (7) Oxford (12)   1.83
03/02/18 15:00 Yeovil (19) Cambridge (15)   2.37
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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Missed another bet last weekend, but not a problem because it didn't do the business: Ipswich v Sheff Utd ended as a 0-0 draw.

Since starting this thread we've had just 3 bets . . .
Lost
won at 4.2
Lost

plus 1.2 from 3 bets, ROI% of 40%

Nothing this weekend, but I'll try and keep on top of things.

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  • 4 weeks later...

These system bets are unfortunately few and far between, but such patience is often rewarded by profits. We have a system bet this weekend, and a cracker it is too. . .

Tottenham v Manchester City  ~  Home win (Oddschecker current best odds 2.68)

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  • 3 weeks later...

If I could stick to any plan and do not place not even a single bet other than the plan, I could be already millionaire, yours is not a plan, it is chasing. If you think 2.68 is good odds, chase draws, always around 3.0, pick a team play match result draw every week double the money when you lost don't worry you'll catch it in 3-4 weeks especially championship teams

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Oh, your message reminds me, there was a system bet last weekend. Burton v Bolton did the business for us at 2.50.

Now 1.7 profit from 5 bets, a 34% yield. Slow maybe, but productive.

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  • 3 months later...

A new season beckons and the home win system bets begin.
1.7 pts profit from 5 bets, carried forward from last season

Oddschecker best odds at the time of posting are quoted;

Chelsea v Arsenal  1.83
Man City v Huddersfield  1.1
Tottenham v Fulham  1.3

West Brom v QPR  1.71
Sheff Utd v Norwich  2.15
 

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On 21/08/2018 at 8:48 PM, Data said:

Blackburn v Reading  1.73    (2-2 incorrect)

Watford v Crystal Palace   2.50      (2-1 correct)

1 winner, 1 loser for a 0.5 profit

+5.29 from 12 bets, 44% yield. Nicely on track!

Nothing for the coming week ... unless Tottenham lose to Man Utd tomorrow, at which point next weekend's Watford v Spurs will be a home win bet (should be around 5.0 for that)

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