Racing Chat - Thursday Jan 25th

[BillyHills]

115 Kelso

Total Assets 3/1 PP

Very consistent sort who stays all day and thats exactly whats required at Kelso on Thursday. Most of his rivals are in and out performers and the selection is 10lbs better off with Native Optimist and running better at the moment so happy to take him on again. Landecker is fav and while he's feared he has won once since 2014!

[jonshell]

2:00 Warwick  WHISKEY CHASER  10/3 Ladbrokes

Whiskey Chaser did ok last time but was probably going a bit to far in heavy ground and a step up in class. He should be more at home here back down in class and less demanding trip. Trainer in good form at present.

8:00 Chelmsford  SAMPHIRE COAST  4/1  PP William Hil Ladbrokes

Another stepping back into calmer waters after not getting the run of things at Newcastle last time. That was over 7 and on Tapeta and tonight he returns to polytrack at chelmsford where he boasts 2 wins 2 places from 7 starts. He drops in grade and up in trip again

[Pirate53]

A lot of money this morning for Atticus Boy in the 18.30 Chelmsford. Was 33/1 at 9.00am now down to 16's.

[Trotter]

Some trends for todays big race in Ireland ..... the Thyestes at Gowran, 3.00pm

Usually contested by 'Grand National' types and Grade horses, it's a top handicap. Some well known names amongst the previous winners ......

2017 – CHAMPAGNE WEST (7/1)
2016 – MY MURPHY (16/1)
2015 – DJAKADAM (9/2)
2014 – ON HIS OWN (12/1)
2013 – JADANLI (25/1)
2012 – ON HIS OWN (10/1)
2011 – SIEGEMASTER (16/1)
2010 – WHINSTONE BOY (5/1)
2009 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
2008 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
2007 – HOMER WELLS (16/1)
2006 – DUN DOIRE (9/4 fav)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (8/1)
2004 – HEDGEHUNTER (10/3 fav)

Some trends....... (courtesy of JuiceStorm) ........ I've selected trends that apply to at least 11/15 of previous winners

15/15 – Won by an Irish-based stable
14/15 – Irish bred
14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks (I've extended to 2 months)
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (rules) before
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
 

Bit of a bummer in that once I'd eliminated from the first 4 trends there were no runners left ! ....... so I've extended 'raced in the last 4 weeks' to 2 months to bring a few more back in

After applying the top 6 trends there's only 1 horse left .......

A Genie In A Bottle , currently 9/1 at Wm Hill

[beaker1]

3.00 Gowran Park – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase – Thursday 25th January

 

This valuable handicap chase has been won in recent years by the likes of Djakadam, On His Own and Champagne West.

 

The strongest trend concerns a horse’s official handicap rating and the ceiling appears to be set at 145, with only one winner in the last ten years having won off a higher mark. The horse in question was the most recent winner Champagne West, who won off 154 twelve months ago, but even so, it seems best to focus on those below this mark. A cause for concern for supporters of Champagne West, A Genie In Abottle, Ucello Conti and Pleasant Company.

 

Another strong trend is that all but two of the last ten winners were aged between eight and ten. In fact, there have only been six winners from outside this bracket since 1988, which doesn’t bode well for the quartet of seven-year-olds (A Genie In Abottle, Monbeg Notorious, Call The Taxie and Woods Well) as well as the eleven-year-old Isleofhopendreams.

 

As well as experience, in such a big field, it is important that a horse’s jumping is up to scratch and this is backed up by the fact that all of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their chasing careers. The only member of the field with question marks over their jumping this time around is Thunder And Roses.

 

Stamina is also an important factor to take into account when searching for the winner of this particular race. Seven of the last ten winners had winning form over 3m or further and with the ground likely to be heavy on Thursday, I wouldn’t want to be taking any chances on a horse’s stamina. There are seven horses without proven form over 3m, namely Ucello Conti, Flaxen Flare, Isleofhopendreams, Call The Taxie, Woods Well, Fine Theatre and Space Cadet.

 

In terms of form, normally in these big handicaps, it pays to side with horses arriving on the back of a victory or placed effort but the evidence here suggests we should be thinking outside the box. Seven of the last ten winners had finished outside of the first three on their most recent outing, five of which had failed to complete.

 

Weight can also be an important consideration in these competitive handicaps and the trends suggest that 11st is the ceiling, as only four of the last ten winners had won carrying a bigger burden. It is worth bearing in mind that three of those four exceptions came in the last four years so perhaps the pattern is shifting but on the whole, I would prefer to focus on those with a lower weight.

 

The final factor to consider is the betting and it is fair to say that favourites have had a pretty torrid time in recent years. We have to go back to 2006 to find the last winning favourite and in that time we have had winners priced at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 so we shouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on one at a big price.

 

Shortlist

WOUNDED WARRIOR – 7/7

Out Sam – 6/7

Pleasant Company – 6/7

 

Conclusion

 

Taking everything into account, we have just one horse who matches all seven of our trends and that is WOUNDED WARRIOR. Noel Meade’s nine-year-old has been struggling for form of late but he was sixth in this race twelve months ago off a 14lb higher mark. He travelled well for a long way on that occasion before his big weight (11st 5lb) took its toll in the closing stages. He needs to improve on what he has shown recently but he is likely to appreciate the refitting of cheekpieces which he wore last year and I think he can run better than his sizeable odds suggest.

 

Just missing out on the top spot is Out Sam, who is one of six runners in the race for Gordon Elliott. The nine-year-old was previously trained in Britain by Warren Greatrex and Nicky Henderson but seemed to lose his way and needs a change of scenery to reignite his enthusiasm for the game. He is entitled to come on for his first outing for his new yard over Christmas and with crack 3lb conditional James Bowen coming over to take the ride, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.

The shortlist is completed by Pleasant Company who was fourth in the race twelve months ago. That was the ten-year-old’s first start for nearly a year and having won a Grade 3 chase next time, it is hard to argue that he didn’t improve for his first run of the season. He races here off a mark of 146 which is just above the 145 ceiling but he has a run under his belt this time around and it would be no surprise to see him go close once again this year.