PL Tips - betfair prices vs BOG

[Birchy]

Today was a good day for the PL tips and @BillyHills says it was about £450 profit to £20 stakes. I only managed a measly £24 to £2 stakes, so it looks like I'm bleeding off a lot of profit due to poor prices. So here's a roundup of today's winners with the prices I got matched at:

15:35 Huntingdon - The Big Bite: 6.00

14:45 Limerick - Gracemount: 7.00

14:30 Kempton - Buveur Dair: 1.22

14:15 Wolverhampton - Ocean Of Love: 4.10

14:05 Wincanton - Regal Flow: 8.80

14:05 Sedgefield - Dica: 8.60

14:00 Fontwell - Bredon Hill Lad: 4.80

13:55 Kempton - Black Corton: 7.40

13:50 Huntingdon - Brstwork: 7.50

13:25 Fontwell - Highway One O One: 2.00

13:05 Limerick - Ex Patriot: 3.40

13:15 Leopardstown - Espoir Dallen: 1.50

13:10 Down Royal - Gilgamboa: 2.56

13:10 Wolverhampton - King Kevin: 3.88

12:55 Wincanton - If You Say Run: 1.47

12:45 Kempton - If The Cap Fits: 2.88

12:40 Wolverhampton - Guvenors Choice: 4.20

12:35 Market Rasen - Ashkoul: 2.72

12:30 Wetherby - Dick Darsie: 3.25

12:10 Huntingdon - Classic Ben: 7.40

12:10 Down Royal - Sutton Manor: 1.71

How do these compare to bookies BOG?

[BillyHills]

All the prices are there to see for yourself.

Don't forget its not just BOG that makes a difference, its the early prices too.

(eg: Regal Flow was 12/1 the night before etc.....)

And of course the EW bets that are placed don't lose the stake like the win bets on BF do.

Just be happy with a profit

 

 

 

[nenad986]

Dont try to do this on Betfair it is not good. You realy need a BOG and do it when tips is out 5-7 pm!!!

[BillyHills]

4 hours ago, nenad986 said:

Dont try to do this on Betfair it is not good. You realy need a BOG and do it when tips is out 5-7 pm!!!

 

[Birchy]

On 26/12/2017 at 9:24 PM, BillyHills said:

All the prices are there to see for yourself.

Sorry for my newbie questions, but where? Do you mean the suggested prices on the tips page? Are these the prices that go into the results spreadsheet or do you use SP if BOG comes into play?

[BillyHills]

Ok Birchy, this is how it works

I submit the selections on to the website from 4.30pm each day, usually finished by 6pm depending on availability of prices from the bookies.

The 'suggested' prices as you put it are the best odds available at the time of publishing, so we call these the early prices and these prices are what the bets are settled at. 

These are the same prices that are used in the results spreadsheet although some bets do qualify for BOG and are settled as you would expect from your bookmaker. BOG is not used that much as this only comes into play if a price drifts obviously.

Any selection with a price of 8/1 or higher is automatically backed Each Way

As you can see by backing on Betfair with 2pt win singles at 9am in the morning is not going to see the same outcome, one way or another.

P.S:
We monitored 40 bets the other day and compared the odds from the early prices against 9am, 21 prices shortened, 12 drifted and the others stayed the same. As you can see its pointless comparing like for like. 
Find your own way and enjoy the ride

[Birchy]

Thank you for the informative write-up. It is much appreciated. I didn't realise it takes you 1.5hr per day to submit the tips. I assumed it was automated rather than done manually.

I know I'm a PITA sometimes but I'm an engineer and have been betting for 26 years, so like to have lots of information and know how things work before committing. 

[Sir Puntalot]

3 hours ago, Birchy said:

Thank you for the informative write-up. It is much appreciated. I didn't realise it takes you 1.5hr per day to submit the tips. I assumed it was automated rather than done manually.

It won't take him that long soon, so don't pity him.  We're getting there steadily and so much more to come.

[Johnrobertson]

Since these selections have been so successful how easy is it to get on at the suggested price?

Do they shorten up quickly? 

[BillyHills]

Shorten up??

MIne Now drifted out from 25/1 to 33/1 and won at Leopardstown today

The Nap drifted out rom 5/2 to 4/1 too!

 

Swings and roundabouts JR, you know whats its like

[BillyHills]

10 hours ago, Birchy said:

Thank you for the informative write-up. It is much appreciated. I didn't realise it takes you 1.5hr per day to submit the tips. I assumed it was automated rather than done manually.

I know I'm a PITA sometimes but I'm an engineer and have been betting for 26 years, so like to have lots of information and know how things work before committing. 

I have to do the little write ups for each selection too, (reveal by clicking the star next to horses name).

[Glentoby]

For the benefit of Birchy and anyone else trying to sort out the connundrum of BOG,BF,SP or any other betting method of following tips.Billy hits the nail on the head when he says find your own way.Not everyone who posts a tip can get on with a particular bookie at the price they want or to the stake they want.

Therefore anyone following might find that the price advised might be shortened by one bookie,static with another etc,even Betfair is sensitive early to a flood of £5 and £10 bets,probably more so as the bookies use them as their "feelers" these days.

The best thing to do imo is decide which tip you are going to back,spread your bet as widely as practicable.Decide before you back it how much you want to win rather than how much you want to stake and stake accordingly.Sounds simplistic but lets say the tip is put up at 5/2 and the best you can find is 9/4,are you not going to back it?

Even if the best you can find is 2/1 does not mean you have missed the "value",so rather than not back it just up your stake to a level where you will win what you hoped for with the original price and if you can get BOG all the better.Over time it will work out for your P % L even without BOG if you base your betting around what you want to win rather than how much you want to risk on your stake.