Nice work if you can get it

[harry_rag]

This is probably more about strategy than a system though many of the bets are likely to be drawn from different approaches I take that could be described as systems of sorts.

The inspiration for the title is a tongue in cheek reference to Kevin Pullein who effectively writes two weekly columns for the Racing Post, typically involving one bet a week. Nice work if you can get it, but he does, of course, show a decent profit season after season.

I'm going to see how I fare setting myself the objective of posting one bet a week, a selection that I am particularly confident offers clear value. Let's see just how easy a gig (or not, as the case may be) it is.

I will have the advantage of being able to bet on any sport and on any day of the week, rather than being limited to football on a Saturday. I will, though, have some difficult decisions to make about when to pass and when to post.

There will be a bet most weeks though I reserve the right to pass when nothing makes sufficient appeal. Assuming that happens I may occasionally post 2 selections in a week to keep up the "one a week" average.

Starts tomorrow. The betting week will run from Thursday to Wednesday (Thursday being the start of the weekend fixtures in some sports).

Update 29/08/17 - the approach for the thread has settled into a typical routine of one post a week containing one or more (usually two) fixed odds selections. That will continue in the current style with selections posted at least an hour ahead of the scheduled start time.

I will now also look to post once a week with a particularly strong spreadbetting selection (or selections, though I'd expect a single bet more often than not). The deadline for these will be 30 minutes in advance of the start time (to allow me to include bets on football goalscorers when the post-line up markets have formed). Stakes will vary depending on the volatility of the market, I will be backing the selections to at least £1 per point of the suggested stake. Let's see how it unfolds but it should be no great stretch given the proportion of my bets that are spread bets,

Edited August 29, 2017 by harry_rag
Update added at end of post.

[Torque]

All the best. 

[twinny]

Good luck harry

 

[twinny]

Harry do you mind if i post one a week also,bit of fun and see who is in most profit/loss for the year :-) that way you know the posts on here should be of real quallity 

Edited June 1, 2017 by twinny
Added extra wording

[harry_rag]

Yeah, no problem if you want to keep me company and provide a bit of competition! Be interesting to see how often the double lands.

[vikki37]

Good luck! Hope you do well as usual! 

[twinny]

ok ive gone early with my pick placeing 1 point(im going to use a quid as a point here if thats ok) on

FC Basil v St Gallen 7.30 pm Friday night Swiss Super League 

Bet.. backed St Gallen +1.5 Asian Handicap 

Bookmaker.. Betvic

Price 1.88

reason....in there last 7 meetings where Basil were the home team and St Gallen were the away(head to head meetings),Basil have only overcome that deficit once,Basil have only overcome the 1.5 deficit in all competitive matches resently in only 2 of there last 8 games,while St Gallen have not been beat by a 1.5 deficit in there last 5 competative games added to this that Basil have only won 1 of there last 5 Super league games having tied the league up this looks like a solid bet

 

 

[harry_rag]

Good luck. That's one of the interesting dynamics of doing this, it feels like a Thursday or Friday bet will have to be particularly strong to persuade me to pull the trigger.

I'll be tending to quote 1 point stakes a la KP, with the odd 0.5 point or bigger stake occasionally (I'll track my results to level stakes and actual if different). Given my tendency to place a lot of bets close to the off, I'll commit to an hour minimum notice with these selections though will give more where possible. That probably rules out goalscorer bets as I tend to rely on confirmed line ups for those.

Saturday and Sunday will probably be the main days for me. This week, the Champions League final is a prime candidate for a bet.

[harry_rag]

Unlucky with your first bet, I see Basel won 4-1.

I've decided to kick things off with 1 point on Dybala not to play the whole match ( Champions League Final) at 3/4 with 888 (under player specials, they've priced up yes and no for a few players).

This may prove to be the shortest priced selection I post in this thread but I think the price should be considerably shorter. I placed this on Thursday night but gave myself time to see if anything made more appeal before deciding to go with it. The price is still available.

You could make a decent case for it being a sub 1/2 shot. He's been subbed off in 7 out of 9 CL starts this season and 29/40 in all competitions.

[harry_rag]

Dybala subbed off on 78 minutes so off to a winning start. 0.75 points up after 1 bet. Off duty now till Thursday, at least in terms of this thread.

[harry_rag]

This week's selection is 1 point on Any England player to score a header v Scotland at 4/1 with Lads.

Not much time for a detailed write up but I'm satisfied this should be much closer to 3/1 and the spread prices for England headed goal minutes make it more like a 5/2 shot.

[twinny]

good luck harry

[harry_rag]

No joy this week but still satisfied it was a value bet. 1 winner from 2 bets, -0.25 point with an ROI of -12.5%.

Most bets will probably be at prices somewhere between last week's 1.75 and this week's 4/1.

[twinny]

Canadian Grand Prix 7pm 

just a straight £1 win on Lewis Hamilton @ 8/11 

I will go for Hamilton to repeat his victory here in 2016, Starting from pole position Hamilton is superb normally with 65 pole positions ,55 wins in his career shows he is a top driver and can normally make pole position count 8/11 is widely available (placed with betfair here)

 

[harry_rag]

Good luck. No real insight when it comes to F1 but he's obviously a consistent performer and in a decent car. Maybe you can level the series! 

[twinny]

Hamilton won for a profit of 72p (not sure how you do the roi so will leave that to you harry :-)

i might post a selection for the open on Wednesday but the event starts on Thursday 

level series 

[harry_rag]

It's 1 each on winners but I'm slightly in front on P&L as my winner was at a fractionally better price! I make it you're 0.27 points down with an ROI of -13.5%.

Early days but I'll do my best to lead from start to finish!

[twinny]

Gone early with mine for the upcoming week,ive liked the look of Sergio Garcia for the us open for a while,a big hitter who is good on the big stage and has not played resent tournements(my thinking is so he can prepare for the open) at 25/1 to win is to hard to predict but im thinking if on his A game should be in the mix up at the end.

Bet backed Sergio Garcia top 10 finish with betfred @ 3/1 us open

Will post screen shot of bet later as im on my phone at the mo

[harry_rag]

Good luck, up to you whether you feel the need to post a screen shot but not required as far as I'm concerned,

[harry_rag]

Week 3 and I make it past Saturday for the first time! Had visions of this being the first "no bet" week but I'm satisfied with this one,

This week's bet is 1 point on Albert Kelly to score a try for Hull v Castleford at 13/8 with SJ

The spread firms' assessment of him is that he's around an even money shot, certainly no more than 6/5. Given that he's scored in 12 of his 16 Superleague appearances this season that seems reasonable enough, even allowing for the quality of today's opponents. Decent odds about something that's much closer to a coin toss in my view. 

[harry_rag]

No try for Kelly, fluffed what chances he did have near the line. 1 winner from 3 bets, -1.25 point with an ROI of -41.67%.

[twinny]

yep a loser here also with Garcia finishing 4 under and tied for 21st spot minus 1.28 points running total here 

[harry_rag]

Bet 4 is 1 point on the woodwork to be hit by a kick for a conversion or penalty in the first NZ/Lions test, at 3/1 with PP

Made hay with this during the last World Cup when another firm was offering it at odds between 7/2 and 5/1 and it was landing more often than not. Said firm goes just 6/5 in this game, albeit with drop goal attempts included as well.

Bottom line is the 6/5 is probably fair at best but the 3/1 strikes me as definitely worth a bet and worthy of being my selection for this week.

[Torque]

I might get involved Harry, if you don't mind someone else clogging up your thread.

[harry_rag]

Clog away mate! No objection to other people having a go, can't promise to track everyone else's results as closely as my own but don't mind fellow travellers.

[Torque]

First bet for me on this thread will be Joakim Lagergren to win the BMW International Open golf tournament at odds of 10 at Stan James. The Swede is only a shot back heading into the final round and I think his price has been skewed by the presence of Masters winner Sergio Garcia at the top of the leaderboard. Stake is 1.5 points.

[twinny]

0.5 points e/w here on Valltteri Bottas to win the Azerbaijan grand prix 9/2 William hiil 1/3 odds 1st two places

very hard to overtake here so 3 things i like  for this bet,1st is he is on front row of the grid so any slip off 2/5 odds on Hamilton then he could lead,

2nd the course can be nasty so any slip ups during racing again will favour him and 3rd the price is just right that if he holds position during race will still end up in profit

[Torque]

Fair to say I'm off to a loser with Lagergren at +4 the last time I looked. So that's me 1.5 points down on this thread.

[harry_rag]

Unlucky, well done Twinny on at least landing the place part of your bet. No joy for me either.

1 winner from 4 bets, -2.25 points with an ROI of -56.25%.

[Torque]

I won't do my figures yet as they're not pretty . 

Next bet for me is 3 points on Heather Watson to beat Dominika Cibulkova at the WTA Tennis tournament in Eastbourne at 3.00. There's a few reasons why I like this, even though there's a good chance it will lose. Firstly, Cibulkova is 0-2 on grass this season, whereas Watson has had plenty of matches on the surface and a few wins. Secondly, I always like backing home players if I like the price. Thirdly, Watson has beaten Cibulkova before and although it was a different surface I think it helps your chances of beating someone if you know you've beaten them before. Lastly, Watson has already had a match here whereas for Cibulkova this is her first of the tournament.