Racing Chat - Saturday May 20th

[BillyHills]

 

240 Newmarket

Larchmont Lad NAP 11/4 Skybet
Won the Tattersalls Stakes over this C/D last year, been highly tried since so this represents a drop in class. Finished 9th behind Churchill in the 2000 Guineas but that run will have put him spot on for this. He should go in the ground having won on good to soft last year.

[Striker]

Morning

4.25 Newmarket-King Of Naples

Each Way @ 10-1  Bet Victor

Expect him to have come on a lot for seasonal debut last month

[BillyHills]

Timeform card and Ratings for the Lockinge Stakes

[jonshell]

5:00 Newmarket STAR ROCK 5/2 bet365 / General. star rock showed ability in both starts last season and improved again when second in a useful maiden at Newbury that has thrown up some star fillies over the years. Step up to 1m4f is expected to bring further improvement, but she needs to learn to settle.

[robertob]

3.30 Newbury: Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, 1 Mile

The first big clash of the best older milers this season. And what a mouth-watering race in prospect this is. Three 120/+ individuals  head to head - this could go down to the wire! 

Or not? All three main contenders - Ribchester, Galileo Gold and Lightning Spear - have to overcome the slight doubts of full race fitness on their seasonal reappearance. 

Could that play into the hands of the master that is Aiden O'Brien? Shrewdly he has placed Somehow - a quality filly in her own right - here in the Lockinge. With her sex allowance and fitness assured, she could certainly cause an upset.

Somewhow won twelve days ago a Group 2 at Newmarket - a fifth career success in ten starts - though the jury is still out whether she is a top-notcher.

Dropping down to a mile in soft conditions I can see a scenario unfold where she cruises closely behind Ribchester's pacemaker, and then from over 3f out takes over with a big move that puts all behind in trouble. With fitness and stamina a given, she could stay on to lead the field all the way over the line. 

The 7/1 odds scream value if you believe in the merit of this scenario. I do. But I also have concerns about the fact that Somehow already had three tough races - two in very tough conditions - in the last five weeks. Plus she has to find a bit with the three big guns if ratings are believed.

On ratings there is not a lot between Ribchester, Galileo Gold and Lightning Spear, though. I would still discount David Simcock's six year old on the basis of the ground that probably does suit him the least. His very best in the past came on fast ground. Plus Lightning Spear is still searching for the elusive first Group 1 victory. 

That is different for Ribchester and Galileo Gold. Both have won on the highest level - Galileo Gold even twice. And both have excellent form with cut in the ground. 

The score's equal between the two. On ratings there's a single pound between them, yet the market has Ribchester a clear 6/4 favourite. Probably on the basis that the son of Iffraaj has still a bit of improvement left.

He might have but he might not. In fact there is only a single career run betwen Ribchester and Galileo Gold.

On balance I would agree that Ribchester is likely to be the better prospect for the season. He looks the type to do better with age and experience, whereas Galileo Gold appears more likely to regress. However at this point in time it is also Galileo Gold's best chance to win a big race this year, I feel.

Connections will certainly be aware of this. He should be fully wound up, his record as a fresh horse is fine and of all horses in the field he has the best record on soft ground. So given the prices I have to side with Galileo Gold who I would have more like a 5/2 chance in my book. 

Selection:
10pts win - Galileo Gold @ 9/2 Bet365

......

4.05 Newbury: Class 2 Conditions Stakes, 6 Furlongs

All about Richard Hannon's Denaar here. He was an easy winner under hands and heels in a Chelmsford maiden on debut a mere twelve days ago over the minimum trip. The step up to 6f should suit very well and the change in conditions - at least on pedigree - is no problem; in fact can be beneficial. 

The form of his maiden success looks rock solid through the experienced runner-up who on his penultimate start ran well in a race that threw up a handful of winners as well as a subsequent listed placed individual.

Selection:
10pts win - Denaar @ 15/8 Paddy Power

.....

5.10 Newbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1 Mile

Big field and an open contest, so at a price I give Grand Inquisitor a chance to find back to some sort of form, now returning to turf with cut in the ground off a dangerous mark.

He moved yards during the winter and hasn't excelled for new connections on the All-Weather the last two starts over seven furlongs, but it might not be wise to judge him too harshly on those efforts.

Back over the slightly longer trip with conditions he's proven to handle and only 2lb above his last winning mark I see a fair chance for him returning to form Not to forget he ran some massive races off much higher marks last season and knocked on the door in tough Handicaps of marks around 95.

Selection:
10pts win - Grand Inquisitor @ 18/1 Bet365

......

5.35 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 5 Furlongs

Richard Fahey's Paddy Power slipped dramatically in the handicap mark compared to what the four year old ran of last season. Now down to 75 with the benefit of a fine pipe opener on Newcastle's All-Weather, the gelding seems well handicapped on return to turf.

His win record is dismal, but he raced of up to 10lb higher in good Handicaps last year has performed more often than with credit - in fact on RPR's he ran 11 times to ratings above his current mark of 75.

Softish conditions should be no problem, he has some okay form on this type of surface. His sire performs decent enough too, and the dam is a Listed winner on soft ground. Added 3lb apprentice allowance is a little icing on the cake.

Selection:
10pts win - Paddy Power @ 4/1 Bet365

......

8.50 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6 Furlongs

I give handicap debutante Manshood a good chance to outrun his price tag. He's had five starts in maiden company so far, placed three times, the two times he ran over today's trip he was in the money running to RPR's of 72 and 73.

He's got a fine pipe opener under his belt last month, that should set him up nicely and didn't sacrifice his potentially lenient opening mark. 

Potentially lenient if he improves for his first handicap start in new conditions. Soft ground, though, should suit quite well on pedigree.  Martin Lane was the other day in the saddle, so got to know Manshood, and has the ride today too. Could be an advantage.

Selection: 
10pts win - Manshood @ 14/1 Paddy Power

[robertob]

Already two nice winners with one more chace to come in the lucky last at Doni... but here my thoughts on the Preakness Stakes:
 

11.48 Pimlico: Preakness Stakes 

Always Dreaming was brilliant the way he won the Kentucky Derby, doing it "the hard way" as by no means he got an easy lead that day. He found plenty when it mattered after gruelling fractions on the front for most parts of the race.

Derby winners have a good record taking the second step along the road toward Triple Crown glory. So Always Dreaming may well be hard to beat today. However conditions are quite different this time around and he's an odds-on chance - short enough to take on at this point in time given there are two intriguing alternatives at bigger prices.

It's not difficult to give Classic Empire another chance today. This massively talented colt is quite a character and it wasn't all plain sailing for him since winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Still he managed to get ready in time for the big one at Churchill Downs, on the way there proving himself to still retain all his class when getting up late in the Arkansas Derby.

Unfortunately things did not work out for him in the Kentucky Derby. A wide draw that day, bumped left and right once the gate opened, he was a long way off the pace and had to make his move widest of all around the home turn, then bumped again, mud in his face, banged up, he still ran on to finish fourth.

It was a tremendous performance, probably as good as the one of the winner, Always Dreaming. If he has recovered in time for the Preakness I really fancy him to turn the form around in a much smaller field with a better chance for a clear run. In my book he's closer to Always Dreaming than the odds suggest.

That says there is a second horse that I feel is overpriced, by quite a margin, actually. That is Arkansas Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money. He was qualified for the Derby but connections decided to target the Preakness. So that is certainly something to take note of.

You have to take note of his massively brave performance at Oaklawn Park too. From the second widest draw he crossed over to be right up with the pace and take up the lead halfway through. Put under immense pressure turning for home he fought gamely; headed a good furlong out he went on again to put his head in front.... just to be beaten in the dying strides by Classic Empire.

Now Conquest Mo Money has a wide draw today again, however with only ten runners this is not quite as big a deal. He's still quite a lightly raced individual, so there is every that he learned a bit more and finds some improvement. At 25's he's huge value against the market leader.

Selection:
5pts win - Classic Empire @ 7/2 Bet365
5pts win - Conquest Mo Money @ 25/1 Paddy Power

[BillyHills]

Good luck with the Preakness Florien

[corky]

horse racing tips on the mark today again

10/1 plus treble

16/1 winner

were the highlights