World Snooker Championship 2017

[mcsilks]

My favourite tournament of the year from a betting perspective.

Here is the draw in full:

Mark Selby v Fergal O'Brien: Should be a comprehensive win for Selby. These two have met 4 times previously with Selby winning all four at an aggregate of 17 frames to two. Value bet = O'Brien to win under 5.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP).

Anthony McGill v Stephen Maguire: Maguire was brilliant in qualifiers and I would make him the narrow favourite here. They met at the same stage in the same tournament two years and McGill prevailed 10-9 on that date. Expect a similar frame count here. Total frames over 15.5 @ EVENS (PP)

Kyren Wilson v David Grace: Kyren has an awful record against Grace (losing all 3 previous meetings), but he is the form player so I wouldn't advise against him. Having said that, for Grace to be 3/1 against a player that he has beaten 3/3, looks tempting.

John Higgins v Martin Gould: Higgins has the edge here but it will likely be closer than the bookies suggest. Higgins won the last meeting 9-8. Would favour the over 16.5 frames at EVENS (PP)

Barry Hawkins v Tom Ford: The Worlds always brings the best out of Hawkins and he should win this comfortably. Ford looked very good in qualifying however so I would leave this match well alone.

Marco Fu v Luca Brecel: Fu prefers the longer matches and has won all four of their previous meetings. Fu -3.5 frames at 11/10 is a price I shall gladly accept (PP)

Shaun Murphy v Yan Bingtao: A slightly out of sorts Murphy takes on the youngest qualifier. Bingtao has won 2 out of the 3 previous meetings so form suggests the value is with the outsider. Bingtao to cause an upset here is certainly a possibility though hedging your bets and taking Bingtao +2.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Judd Trump v Rory McLeod: I really can't see McLeod getting more than 3 frames here so am happy to take Trump -6.5 @ 7/4 (PP)

Stuart Bingham v Peter Ebdon: Ebdon was very lucky to qualify and Michael Holt should have put him away comfortably. Having said that, Ebdon has won their 2 previous meetings. Shall leave this one well alone.

Ronnie O'Sullivan v Gary Wilson: Which Ronnie will we see? I have learned not to back this man as he can beat himself.

Ryan Day v Xiao Guodong: Goudong is one of the better qualifiers against Day who is one of the weaker players of the top 16. Experience should win the day here and a winning record 2-0 suggests that Day -2.5 is value @  6/5 (PP)

Ding Junhui v Zhou Yuelong: Yuelong is a star of the future and if he brings his A game, this could be a good contest. I can't see that happening and Ding's experience and previous winning record of 2 wins (11 frames to 1) suggests this won't be close. Ding -4.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Neil Robertson v Noppon Saengkham: Robertson has a winning record but did lose their last meeting 5-3. Robertson hasn't been in the best of nick recently so the value here is with the outsider. Saengkham +3.5 @ 6/4 (PP)

Mark Allen v Jimmy Robertson: Both players whose form is very up and down. Robertson is unreliable biut does have the game to cause Allen problems. Will leave this one alone.

Liang Wenbo v Stuart Carrington: Carrington had a great win over M.J.Williams in the qualifiers and can do the same to Wenbo. Too difficult to predict this one.

Ali Carter v Graeme Dott: Ali Carter comfortably won their last meeting 4-1 though Dott has a winning record including a QF win over Carter at the crucible. This one is a near certainty to be close. Over 16.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP)

 

My bet of the tournament is Trump to win his quarter @ 10/11 (PP). He has much the easiest passage through to the last 4 and to get there faces the winner of McGill and Maguire, and then either Hawkins or Ali Cater, qualifiers aside.

For that reason, I will take Trump @ 4/1 to win the tournament (PP). Should Trump reach the last 4 and I think that will be a breeze, he faces Bingham, Wilson, Allen or Higgins for a place in the final. To say it is the easier half of the draw is something of an understatement.

And finally, I like the look of a Selby/Trump final at 13/2 with PP. Selby has this great record at the crucible and is the form player coming into the tournament having won in China. I do think he will be pushed though which is why I think Trump will pip him in the final.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by mcsilks

[StevieDay1983]

Great to see you so interested in this tournament, @mcsilks. Here are the odds for outright winner to keep an eye on. I'm keen to hear the views of other snooker punters such as @louis12, @Mullahoran, @owenclass, @Fader, @kevshat, @bobix, and @RussP. Keep us up to date with your bets and outcomes as well, @mcsilks.