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mcsilks

World Snooker Championship 2017

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My favourite tournament of the year from a betting perspective.

Here is the draw in full:

Mark Selby v Fergal O'Brien: Should be a comprehensive win for Selby. These two have met 4 times previously with Selby winning all four at an aggregate of 17 frames to two. Value bet = O'Brien to win under 5.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP).

Anthony McGill v Stephen Maguire: Maguire was brilliant in qualifiers and I would make him the narrow favourite here. They met at the same stage in the same tournament two years and McGill prevailed 10-9 on that date. Expect a similar frame count here. Total frames over 15.5 @ EVENS (PP)

Kyren Wilson v David Grace: Kyren has an awful record against Grace (losing all 3 previous meetings), but he is the form player so I wouldn't advise against him. Having said that, for Grace to be 3/1 against a player that he has beaten 3/3, looks tempting.

John Higgins v Martin Gould: Higgins has the edge here but it will likely be closer than the bookies suggest. Higgins won the last meeting 9-8. Would favour the over 16.5 frames at EVENS (PP)

Barry Hawkins v Tom Ford: The Worlds always brings the best out of Hawkins and he should win this comfortably. Ford looked very good in qualifying however so I would leave this match well alone.

Marco Fu v Luca Brecel: Fu prefers the longer matches and has won all four of their previous meetings. Fu -3.5 frames at 11/10 is a price I shall gladly accept (PP)

Shaun Murphy v Yan Bingtao: A slightly out of sorts Murphy takes on the youngest qualifier. Bingtao has won 2 out of the 3 previous meetings so form suggests the value is with the outsider. Bingtao to cause an upset here is certainly a possibility though hedging your bets and taking Bingtao +2.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Judd Trump v Rory McLeod: I really can't see McLeod getting more than 3 frames here so am happy to take Trump -6.5 @ 7/4 (PP)

Stuart Bingham v Peter Ebdon: Ebdon was very lucky to qualify and Michael Holt should have put him away comfortably. Having said that, Ebdon has won their 2 previous meetings. Shall leave this one well alone.

Ronnie O'Sullivan v Gary Wilson: Which Ronnie will we see? I have learned not to back this man as he can beat himself.

Ryan Day v Xiao Guodong: Goudong is one of the better qualifiers against Day who is one of the weaker players of the top 16. Experience should win the day here and a winning record 2-0 suggests that Day -2.5 is value @  6/5 (PP)

Ding Junhui v Zhou Yuelong: Yuelong is a star of the future and if he brings his A game, this could be a good contest. I can't see that happening and Ding's experience and previous winning record of 2 wins (11 frames to 1) suggests this won't be close. Ding -4.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Neil Robertson v Noppon Saengkham: Robertson has a winning record but did lose their last meeting 5-3. Robertson hasn't been in the best of nick recently so the value here is with the outsider. Saengkham +3.5 @ 6/4 (PP)

Mark Allen v Jimmy Robertson: Both players whose form is very up and down. Robertson is unreliable biut does have the game to cause Allen problems. Will leave this one alone.

Liang Wenbo v Stuart Carrington: Carrington had a great win over M.J.Williams in the qualifiers and can do the same to Wenbo. Too difficult to predict this one.

Ali Carter v Graeme Dott: Ali Carter comfortably won their last meeting 4-1 though Dott has a winning record including a QF win over Carter at the crucible. This one is a near certainty to be close. Over 16.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP)

 

My bet of the tournament is Trump to win his quarter @ 10/11 (PP). He has much the easiest passage through to the last 4 and to get there faces the winner of McGill and Maguire, and then either Hawkins or Ali Cater, qualifiers aside.

For that reason, I will take Trump @ 4/1 to win the tournament (PP). Should Trump reach the last 4 and I think that will be a breeze, he faces Bingham, Wilson, Allen or Higgins for a place in the final. To say it is the easier half of the draw is something of an understatement.

And finally, I like the look of a Selby/Trump final at 13/2 with PP. Selby has this great record at the crucible and is the form player coming into the tournament having won in China. I do think he will be pushed though which is why I think Trump will pip him in the final.

 

 

 

Edited by mcsilks

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snooker.jpg.805e3727c7dd441f02ac1c771a76

Great to see you so interested in this tournament, @mcsilks. Here are the odds for outright winner to keep an eye on. I'm keen to hear the views of other snooker punters such as @louis12, @Mullahoran, @owenclass, @Fader, @kevshat, @bobix, and @RussP. Keep us up to date with your bets and outcomes as well, @mcsilks:ok

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I guess it's time to be getting back into the swing of snooker betting, now the development of PL is coming to an end. ;)

I played this game for 15 years non stop and achieved a high standard hitting around 40 tons, but there's a lot of players I'm not up to date on, so I'll try and watch those and catch up.

As for Trump - I don't think he's got the game to win the title unless he gets a big lead, he just loses it under pressure in my opinion. Selby is far and away the best player around these days and to see him not as favourite, is completely bonkers as he's solid as a rock, even Ronnie thinks he's the best.

Ronnie is always the wildcard, and at the World Championships, he usually turns up with his game in good nick, but he would need to be in top gear and to get a good lead against Selby if they met further down the line.

Hawkins is worth a mention and his game is very much suited to the Uk and World Championships, and he was always solid even when we were both in the amateurs. Another dark horse for the title, don't rule him out.

Players I've played over the years for the record:

Barry Hawkins, Stuart Bingham, Ali Carter, Peter Ebdon, Fergal O'Brien, Rory Mcleod. 

Bingham was the most surprising to do as well as what he has. I remember (blowing my trumpet here) tonking him 3-0 in an amateur tournament, but he really worked hard at his game and I was chuffed for him, but I don't see him winning it again - just call it a feeling.

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On 14/04/2017, 09:40:37, mcsilks said:

My favourite tournament of the year from a betting perspective.

Here is the draw in full:

Mark Selby v Fergal O'Brien: Should be a comprehensive win for Selby. These two have met 4 times previously with Selby winning all four at an aggregate of 17 frames to two. Value bet = O'Brien to win under 5.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP).

Anthony McGill v Stephen Maguire: Maguire was brilliant in qualifiers and I would make him the narrow favourite here. They met at the same stage in the same tournament two years and McGill prevailed 10-9 on that date. Expect a similar frame count here. Total frames over 15.5 @ EVENS (PP)

Kyren Wilson v David Grace: Kyren has an awful record against Grace (losing all 3 previous meetings), but he is the form player so I wouldn't advise against him. Having said that, for Grace to be 3/1 against a player that he has beaten 3/3, looks tempting.

John Higgins v Martin Gould: Higgins has the edge here but it will likely be closer than the bookies suggest. Higgins won the last meeting 9-8. Would favour the over 16.5 frames at EVENS (PP)

Barry Hawkins v Tom Ford: The Worlds always brings the best out of Hawkins and he should win this comfortably. Ford looked very good in qualifying however so I would leave this match well alone.

Marco Fu v Luca Brecel: Fu prefers the longer matches and has won all four of their previous meetings. Fu -3.5 frames at 11/10 is a price I shall gladly accept (PP)

Shaun Murphy v Yan Bingtao: A slightly out of sorts Murphy takes on the youngest qualifier. Bingtao has won 2 out of the 3 previous meetings so form suggests the value is with the outsider. Bingtao to cause an upset here is certainly a possibility though hedging your bets and taking Bingtao +2.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Judd Trump v Rory McLeod: I really can't see McLeod getting more than 3 frames here so am happy to take Trump -6.5 @ 7/4 (PP)

Stuart Bingham v Peter Ebdon: Ebdon was very lucky to qualify and Michael Holt should have put him away comfortably. Having said that, Ebdon has won their 2 previous meetings. Shall leave this one well alone.

Ronnie O'Sullivan v Gary Wilson: Which Ronnie will we see? I have learned not to back this man as he can beat himself.

Ryan Day v Xiao Guodong: Goudong is one of the better qualifiers against Day who is one of the weaker players of the top 16. Experience should win the day here and a winning record 2-0 suggests that Day -2.5 is value @  6/5 (PP)

Ding Junhui v Zhou Yuelong: Yuelong is a star of the future and if he brings his A game, this could be a good contest. I can't see that happening and Ding's experience and previous winning record of 2 wins (11 frames to 1) suggests this won't be close. Ding -4.5 @ 11/10 (PP)

Neil Robertson v Noppon Saengkham: Robertson has a winning record but did lose their last meeting 5-3. Robertson hasn't been in the best of nick recently so the value here is with the outsider. Saengkham +3.5 @ 6/4 (PP)

Mark Allen v Jimmy Robertson: Both players whose form is very up and down. Robertson is unreliable biut does have the game to cause Allen problems. Will leave this one alone.

Liang Wenbo v Stuart Carrington: Carrington had a great win over M.J.Williams in the qualifiers and can do the same to Wenbo. Too difficult to predict this one.

Ali Carter v Graeme Dott: Ali Carter comfortably won their last meeting 4-1 though Dott has a winning record including a QF win over Carter at the crucible. This one is a near certainty to be close. Over 16.5 frames @ 4/5 (PP)

 

My bet of the tournament is Trump to win his quarter @ 10/11 (PP). He has much the easiest passage through to the last 4 and to get there faces the winner of McGill and Maguire, and then either Hawkins or Ali Cater, qualifiers aside.

For that reason, I will take Trump @ 4/1 to win the tournament (PP). Should Trump reach the last 4 and I think that will be a breeze, he faces Bingham, Wilson, Allen or Higgins for a place in the final. To say it is the easier half of the draw is something of an understatement.

And finally, I like the look of a Selby/Trump final at 13/2 with PP. Selby has this great record at the crucible and is the form player coming into the tournament having won in China. I do think he will be pushed though which is why I think Trump will pip him in the final.

 

 

 

Forgot to say. Awesome post. :ok 

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3 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

I guess it's time to be getting back into the swing of snooker betting, now the development of PL is coming to an end. ;)

I played this game for 15 years non stop and achieved a high standard hitting around 40 tons, but there's a lot of players I'm not up to date on, so I'll try and watch those and catch up.

As for Trump - I don't think he's got the game to win the title unless he gets a big lead, he just loses it under pressure in my opinion. Selby is far and away the best player around these days and to see him not as favourite, is completely bonkers as he's solid as a rock, even Ronnie thinks he's the best.

Ronnie is always the wildcard, and at the World Championships, he usually turns up with his game in good nick, but he would need to be in top gear and to get a good lead against Selby if they met further down the line.

Hawkins is worth a mention and his game is very much suited to the Uk and World Championships, and he was always solid even when we were both in the amateurs. Another dark horse for the title, don't rule him out.

Players I've played over the years for the record:

Barry Hawkins, Stuart Bingham, Ali Carter, Peter Ebdon, Fergal O'Brien, Rory Mcleod. 

Bingham was the most surprising to do as well as what he has. I remember (blowing my trumpet here) tonking him 3-0 in an amateur tournament, but he really worked hard at his game and I was chuffed for him, but I don't see him winning it again - just call it a feeling.

Can't say I've had forty tons, or even one for that matter. I came close a few times in my days of being beaten out of sight by Nigel Bond time and again. 95 as I recall was my top break though I'm going back around 20 plus years there.

I agree with your thoughts over Selby being the top dog here in Sheffield (or anywhere for that matter), but he has a tough draw here and I think the bookies have factored that in when odds compiling.

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I don't buy into the easy draw/hard draw argument at all, I think it's seriously flawed. The amount of times a player has had a tough semi final here and everyone saying "He'll suffer in the final after that" and comes out wins the first session easy, it doesn't stand up for me.

I think a tougher draw is more likely to keep you on your toes if anything. ;) 

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@mcsilksFirst time I've seen Kyren Wilson play and I can see why he's won a ranking tournament already. His technique is smooth as silk, very impressed with him and no idea how Grace has beaten him previously - I assume over much shorter matches? 

I'd be inclined to have a sneaky bet on Marco Fu @ 5.50 Bet365 even at 8-4 down, as I don't think he's finished yet. ;) 

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I hate Judd Trump, he's such an annoying mess of a player! :loon At his best, he's great to watch but this is exactly why he won't the World Championship, maybe ever, because he can be cruising along at 4-0 and lose 5 in a row to a player who's never ever going to be a top player. Granted Rory played well, but the door was opened for him because of Trump's sloppy play.

Rant over. ;) 

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So what do we think with these two semi finals? Two of my favourite current players in Ding Junhui and Mark Selby all square at 5-5. Then John Higgins leading Barry Hawkins 5-3 in the other semi final. Personally, I think the winner of Ding and Selby will win the tournament. I was at a Welsh Open game in one of Ding's first matches and I was really impressed by him back then. That's going on over 10 years now I think.

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One of the finest quality semi finals I've ever seen versus one of the most error-strewn. Be amazed if the winner doesn't come from Selby/Ding - the final is unlikely to make the final session on this form!

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