beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Last year I decided to do a Ante-post diary which resulted in a 19 points profit overall thanks to victories for Thistlecrack (3/1), Don Cossack (7/1), On The Fringe (5/2) and Ballyandy (12/1) as well as healthy each-way returns on the likes of My Tent Or Yours (20/1), Buveur D’Air (12/1), Yanworth (9/1) and Bloody Mary (14/1). For those of you who may be new to my Ante-post Diary, I will run through the general format from week to week. In each update I plan to go through the four Championship races (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Cheltenham Gold Cup) initially before discussing the novice divisions over hurdles and fences. Obviously as we get closer to the Festival the handicaps will also be discussed in depth as well as some of the other shoulder races and bets will be recommended where necessary PART 1 Champion Hurdle Annie Power heads most lists for the Champion Hurdle but she missed her first possible engagement of the season in the Morgiana Hurdle having reported to have worked badly in the week leading up to Punchestown. There is no long term concern about the mare and with the Mullins bandwagon yet to get fully rolling it shouldn’t be too long before she is out. Her stablemate Faugheen, with whom she also shares favouritism for the Day one showpiece missed the same race with a bruised foot. He has not been seen on the racecourse since running away with Irish Champion Hurdle last January and this slight niggle has delayed his comeback further. Despite those notable absences, Mullins was able to record a sixth successive victory in the race courtesy of Nichols Canyon who made just about all to win by twelve lengths under Ruby Walsh. The visibility was poor at Punchestown so it is hard to know just how good he was but he was well on top as he appeared out of the gloom over the final hurdle. He is best priced 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished third last year, although it was indicated afterwards that he would be going up in trip which suggests the World Hurdle is more likely to be on his agenda than the Champion. In fact the current Champion Hurdle market has a number of horses on the list who are unlikely to take their chances with the likes of Yorkhill, Altior, Buveur D’Air and Min all seemingly likely to head over the larger obstacles this winter. That means that at present we have two horses at around 5/2 and the rest are 16/1 bar, which might suggest that there is an each-way bet to be had but there isn’t anything that jumps out at present. Ch’Tibello got the better of Melodic Rendezvous and My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Price Rush Hurdle a couple of weeks ago but for all Dan Skelton’s five-year-old improving, I find it hard to see him ending up as Champion Hurdle class by the end of the season. The disappointment of the race was My Tent Or Yours who travelled well for much of the way but just couldn’t pick up in the heavy ground and Noel Fehily wasn’t overly hard on him. He should be better on a sounder surface in something like the Christmas Hurdle but he will be ten come March and despite his fine effort last season, you would have to think his best days are behind him. The Fighting Fifth last weekend also failed to throw up any Champion Hurdle clues as Irving got the better of Apple’s Jade in a tight finish. We know enough about Irving to know he isn’t a real top drawer performer and the runner-up will be stepping up in trip for her next assignment. It is worth mentioning that Petit Mouchoir was going as well as anything when coming down three out and despite that fall he could be the one to take out of the race. The disappointment of the race was Sceau Royal who came here on the back of smooth successes at Cheltenham and Wincanton but he seemed to struggle on this slower surface. After starting the season well last year his form tailed off and it might be that he is one who runs best fresh. Regardless of the reason for his below-par display, this run confirmed if it weren’t already apparent that he is some way short of Champion Hurdle class. Champion Chase Willie Mullins has the market leader for another of the championship races here as Douvan who won all six of his starts as a novice last season, is currently best-priced 8/11 to be the Champion Chaser come March. If you had to ask me now what would win the Champion Chase, clearly this chap would be top of the list and despite the six-year-old holding entries in the John Durkan over 2m4f and the King George over 3m, all the indications are that the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be his primary target come the Spring. He was close to faultless last season and personally I think he would have an excellent chance in the Champion Hurdle were something to happen to either of his stablemates. At this stage it looks his to lose but there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before March so there is no appeal in 8/11. In terms of opposition, his closest market rival at this stage is Fox Norton who is two from two this term, having added the Shloer Chase to his handicap success at Cheltenham last month. He was purchased by Ann & Alan Potts after his reappearance win and they chose to move the horse from the yard of Neil Mulholland to Colin Tizzard. The six-year-old was a ready winner of that Grade 2 contest but personally I think 7/1 is plenty short enough at this stage. I don’t think there is any doubt that he has improved over the summer but when you consider he was beaten 11 lengths by Douvan in the Arkle and 32 lengths by Douvan at Aintree, he looks to have plenty more improving to do yet. He also sustained a cut in his latest victory which means he misses this weekend’s Tingle Creek but all being well he should be back for a Spring campaign. It could be that Willie Mullins has two of the biggest “dangers” to Douvan in the shape of Un De Sceaux and Champagne Fever. The former had his limitations exposed in the Champion Chase back in March as he just couldn’t quicken with Sprinter Sacre on a sounder surface, although he did run on in the closing stages. He won over 2m5f at Auteuil in May and he looks likely to be stepped up in trip this term. Champagne Fever didn’t make it to the track last term but despite being keen and fresh on his reappearance, he managed to get his head in front, landing a Listed Chase at Thurles just last week. That was over 2m6f but afterwards his trainer raised the possibility of him going back in trip and although he suggested that 2m in a Grade 1 might be asking a lot, he didn’t rule it out. On this side of the Irish Sea, it could be that Gary Moore holds all of the cards and he will have been delighted to see Sire De Grugy get back to winning ways at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Jamie Moore was frank in his assessment of the ten-year-old’s chances in Grade 1 company afterwards suggesting that he didn’t have much chance of beating Douvan and it is hard to see him making an impact on the Champion Chase. Moore’s best chance could be Ar Mad who improved out of all proportion last term winning his last four starts over fences including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. He suffered a condylar fracture in the lead up to the Festival last term which saw him miss the rest of the campaign and we should learn more about his wellbeing this weekend. He has entries in both the Tingle Creek and the Peterborough Chase and we should see where we stand with him. The one question we have yet to answer is whether he is as good left-handed but I suspect we might not know that until March. The last of Moore’s potential Champion Chasers is Traffic Fluide although in a recent blog, Moore suggested that the six-year-old would not be seen until February at the earliest. World Hurdle With last year’s runaway World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack now bound for a career over fences, it seems the only chance of him running in this race is if something went awry on his next two outings. If this is the case then it gives the race an open look, especially when you consider that Faugheen currently heads most markets. Whilst it is true that the eight-year-old won a novice hurdle over three miles in his younger days, in the last two years over two miles, he has proved himself arguably as one of the best Champion hurdlers ever. Of course I realise that connections also have Annie Power but I think throwing Faugheen in here would be the wrong option, for all I think he would probably win. As always there are last season’s novices who will be bidding to make an impact in open company and Unowhatimeanharry put down a sizeable marker when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last Friday. The eight-year-old won with plenty in hand on the day under Barry Geraghty and given his form at Cheltenham as a novice it is easy to see why this race is likely to be high on his list of targets. Back in second was Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyoptic who didn’t jump as well as he can, perhaps an impact of his fall at Wetherby last month. At this stage he looks to have plenty to find if he is to become a World Hurdle contender. Alan King’s Yanworth is high on many lists and his performance in the Coral Hurdle this month suggested that he was more of a World Hurdle horse than a Champion Hurdle horse. He showed a good attitude to wear down the game Lil Rockerfeller and win with three-quarters of a length to spare. On the face of it, the performance was slightly underwhelming but I think he might just have needed the race more than connections thought and he still had enough to get the job done. I suspect that stepping up to three miles will probably bring about further improvement but I still think he is short enough at around 8/1. If we have an early contender for a novice chaser going back over hurdles it could be One Track Mind who made a mistake at the first on his chasing debut last week and it didn’t get much better after that. The Grade 1 winning hurdler eventually completed but ran well below expectations and whilst connections are keen to stick down the chasing route for the time being, he could be one worth watching if switched back to the smaller obstacles come the Spring. I will actually be putting a bet up in the World Hurdle this week but you will have to wait a little longer to find out who it is. Gold Cup There is only one place to start with the Gold Cup as the major seismic disturbance in the Gold Cup market was the loss of Vautour earlier this month. A brilliant horse both over hurdles and fences, he turned in some devastating displays at Cheltenham, most notably in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the JLT Novices’ Chase. Much was made of his Cheltenham target last Spring and a poor piece of work meant he went down the Ryanair route rather than Gold Cup. Personally, I found it hard to see him lasting the 3m2f of a Gold Cup trip but I suppose we will never know. Looking ahead to March, it is something of a strange market at present as we find ourselves with a novice who has only raced over fences three times heading the field. Of course the novice that I am referring to is Thistlecrack who carried all before him over hurdles last year and has been sent over fences this year with the target of becoming the second novice since Captain Christy in 1974 to win the race as a novice. Now, I should start by saying that you would be hard-pushed to find a bigger supporter of this horse than me as I have had him in my Jumpers to Follow list since he won at Wincanton in early 2015, however I think his price is quite absurd at present. His jumping was much better at Newbury on Saturday particularly at the open ditches, which had caused his supporters some alarm at Cheltenham on his second start but he did most of that in second or third gear. The test will come when he has to travel in fourth or fifth gear and then we will see just how his jumping holds up, but in reality we probably aren’t going to see that scenario until the Festival (unless connections decide to take in the King George over Christmas). With all of those questions still to answer 7/2 is too short and I think it means that there are others in the market who could be too big. Clearly his stablemate Cue Card looks to have plenty going in his favour and in the opinions of many, he would have won in March had he stood up. Personally I don’t subscribe to that view but he is a high-class chaser as we saw when bouncing back from a below-par return to land the Betfair Chase a couple of weeks ago. The way he cruised clear of some smart rivals including the returning Coneygree suggested he retains all of his ability at the age of ten and that he will once again be a force come March. He will be eleven by the time Cheltenham comes around though and surely there are more appealing options. As for the returning Coneygree, I thought he ran well for a long way, jumping boldly under Richard Johnson but he just got understandably tired in the closing stages. His trainer admitted afterwards that he probably had him a bit short and the heavy ground will have only exaggerated the tiredness. With that run under his belt, how he fares in either the King George or the Lexus over Christmas is likely to show us how much ability he retains. Last weekend also threw up a third potential Gold Cup runner for the Tizzard team as Native River showed some fine qualities to win the Hennessy at Newbury. He gallops and stays very well which suggests that he would be suited by the gruelling test of a Gold Cup but I’m not sure he has the requisite class to actually win the race. As for last year’s winner Don Cossack, reports on his wellbeing were quite bleak through the summer but just last weekend his trainer indicated that the nine-year-old was back cantering. He suggested that a return was not imminent and that his likely schedule was to have one run around February before heading straight to Cheltenham. He is as big as 12/1 for the race which seems big at the minute but there isn’t much sense in backing him at the moment. I think we will just let time tick by for a few weeks on the Gold Cup because it is still early days (especially without NRNB) for us to be making a selection with so many factors yet to become clear. Novice Hurdlers Novices over both sets of obstacles can be notoriously hard to pin down to races because as well as ability, targets are often also dictated by what else the yard has in the race or whether there looks to be a standout performer in the race. With that in mind, I don’t want to get too bogged down in which races horses are likely to target but I have split them up in the copy according to which races they look likely to end up in at present. Supreme Our first clues in the Supreme market came as early as September as Moon Racer and Ballyandy lit up a fixture at Perth by taking each other on in a novice hurdle. Racing close together throughout, it was David Pipe’s seven-year-old who found a little extra after the last to win by three-quarters of a length. The pair renewed acquaintances about six weeks later at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse getting a 4lb pull in the weights, he was fancied to reverse the placings with that rival. However, that proved not to the case as, in a steadily run affair, Moon Racer quickened up the Cheltenham hill to win readily and stake his claim as a Supreme horse. He now finds himself as short as 6/1 for the Supreme and having only been beaten once to date, it is hard to look past him. As for Ballyandy, I suspect he will end up in the Neptune and personally I think he would have a leading chance if lining up. Throughout the summer there are often horses who are talked about with the following year’s Cheltenham in mind and one such horse this time around was Senewalk who found himself as 8/1 favourite for the Supreme without having run in Britain or Ireland. However, he made his debut at Punchestown just over a week ago and having looked ok for most of the race, he faded tamely after the third last and was well beaten. His trainer Willie Mullins seemed to indicate afterwards that he felt the horse might have a wind problem but may give him the rest of the campaign off and bring him back as a novice next year. A similar talking horse has been Jenkins who was a wide-margin winner of a Newbury bumper in April before finishing a close second at Punchestown later that month. Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old was well touted ahead of his hurdling debut last week at Newbury and despite being a little untidy with his jumping, he really picked up in the closing stages to win impressively under Barry Geraghty. There is still plenty for him to work on as he showed plenty of inexperience but he couldn’t be in better hands and it is no surprise to see him high up on many ante-post lists. A couple of other Henderson inmate who made a winning start to his seasons was Lough Derg Spirit. The four-year-old won a novice hurdle at Kempton at the beginning of last week, jumping accurately before coasting clear between the final two flights under Jeremiah McGrath. He was very professional and having been bought for £190,000 in May, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Having come from the Irish pointing field it is no surprise that he is more forward in his development but he could end up in the Neptune come the end of the season. Neptune Looking at the intermediate race in the novice hurdling division, it was hard not to be impressed with Robin Roe, who made a winning debut over hurdles at Aintree in October. The winning pointer was successful on his only bumper start last term and there was a lot to like about the way he won at Aintree. He really powered clear of his rivals after the last and was eased down close home to win with twelve lengths to spare at the line. He could now head to the Challow Hurdle over Christmas, where we are likely to learn more about where he stands with the other leading novices. Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty also threw his hat into the ring with an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Monksfield Novices’ Hurdle, his second victory over hurdles to date. The five-year-old travelled strongly to the second last, before stretching clear of his rivals and was only pushed out to the line to win by an extended seven lengths. He had some pretty smart bumper form and looks to have either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett as suitable targets come the Spring. His target could be determined by where his stablemate Blow By Blow is steered, as the five-year-old now with Gordon Elliott looks likely to play a major role wherever he turns up in March. He is the only horse to have beaten Moon Racer in public and having moved to the Elliott yard from Willie Mullins over the summer, his reappearance is eagerly anticipated. In a recent stable tour his new trainer suggested that he probably wanted a trip but at this stage plans looks pretty fluid. Albert Bartlett As well as Death Duty, Gigginstown look to have another useful staying novice in the shape of Blood Crazed Tiger who is so far three from three over hurdles. The five-year-old also seems to have relished the step up to three miles on his last two starts including when winning in Listed company earlier this month. There is no doubt that he will need to improve on the form he has shown so far to be fancied in a race like this but he finds plenty for pressure and in a race where attrition is often the order of the day. It is a long way off but one horse who I thought might improve for a step up in trip is Elegant Escape who made it two from two over hurdles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He looked to be losing the argument on more than one occasion in the 2m 5f contest but rallied gamely to get the better of Laser Light and in the end, looked to outstay his rival. He was only beaten narrowly in a point-to-point in April and it would be no surprise if 3m became his trip before the end of the season. Triumph It is too early to be even considering a bet in the Triumph as we most likely haven’t heard of the leading contenders just yet. Having said that I think it is worth highlighting a couple of performances which have taken the eye in the early part of the season. Joseph O’Brien played a big part in Ivanovich Gorbatov winning in March and he looks to have a strong team of juveniles to go to war with this year now that the license is in his own name. He has acquired a number of cast-offs from Coolmore and one such horse Landofhopeandglory looks to have a bright future having won both of his starts over hurdles to date. It is worth noting that on both occasions his main rivals have been from his own stable but he was rated 102 on the flat and on what we have seen so far, he looks to have plenty of potential over obstacles. The other one to mention is Philip Hobbs’ Defi Du Seuil who won with his head in his chest at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. He cruised round under Barry Geraghty and quickened up well when squeezed to win with plenty in hand. I’m not sure the form of those in behind is up to much but he was much better than them on the day and he seems to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground. Novice Chasers Arkle I mentioned last year when advising Vaniteux for the Arkle how much Nicky Henderson’s runners are to be respected and although that particular horse could not deliver the goods, he looks to have the one to beat this year in the shape of Altior. Last season’s Supreme winner looked a chaser all over last year in terms of his size and he made no mistake at Kempton on his chasing bow earlier this month. In truth it turned into more of a schooling session than a race with his only rival unable to go the gallop but Noel Fehily was suitably impressed with the ante-post favourite. I suspect that we will get a better idea of his chasing prowess this weekend as he looks set to take in the Henry VII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in which he is likely to take on some higher class rivals. Sandown is notoriously tricky particularly over two miles as the test is so relentless and this should be a good test of his metal. His nearest market rival at this stage is Min who chased him home in the Supreme in March and looks set to renew acquaintances at some stage this term. He made his chasing debut at Navan at the weekend and he was just about foot perfect in a field of seventeen. Ruby Walsh made sure he was towards the head of affairs throughout so the five-year-old had a clear sight of his fences and he jumped well. He went up a couple of gears between the final two fences and having popped the last, he stretched clear to win well at the line. He clearly has a bit to find with Altior on their Supreme form but Rich Ricci mentioned that they had ironed out some problems with Min and hoped they could close the gap if they met again. This is unlikely to be a two horse division however as Identity Thief has also gone down the chasing route and already has a Grade 2 success to his name. He won the Fighting Fifth last term before finishing sixth in the Champion Hurdle in March and if he can transfer that form to fences, he wouldn’t have much to find with the likes of Altior and Min. It has been a while since the north had a horse as exciting as Cloudy Dream and at this stage he looks to be capable of going to the very top over fences. He is two from two over the larger obstacles and his latest victory against more experienced rivals suggested that he was ready for a step up in grade. The ground would have been soft enough for him on that occasion but he handled it well and he looks likely to head to the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas for his next start. One final horse to mention is Charbel who beat a couple of useful performers in the shape of Top Notch and Le Prezien on his chasing debut in October and they have gone on to boost the form since. Kim Bailey’s five-year-old looked a natural over the bigger obstacles and I am therefore surprised he is as big as 33/1 for this race and the JLT, especially when you consider that for the Arkle, Top Notch is as short as 14/1 and Le Prezien 16/1. JLT The four-year-old Clan Des Obeaux laid down a pretty good marker when running away with a Grade 2 contest at Newbury last Friday. Having made the odd mistake on his chasing debut at Chepstow, he seemed to benefit for that experience as he jumped much better last week. He never really came off the bridle as he sauntered clear on the run-in. There must be more to come from him with that being only his sixth start under rules and whilst he could make up into an RSA horse, I suspect that this will be his race come March. He could be joined in that race by Politologue who made an impressive winning debut over fences, beating the useful Vintage Clouds by ten lengths under Harry Cobden. The five-year-old saw the 2m5f trip out very strongly which suggests stamina is his forte and he looks likely to be a better chaser than hurdler. With March in mind it is worth noting that his only below-par display last year came in the Coral Cup on quicker ground and he does seem to be better with cut in the ground. RSA With Barters Hill out for the season, we have already lost one potential star from this division but there are plenty waiting in the wings including Alpha Des Obeaux, who may have failed to perform on his chasing debut at the beginning of October but he has wasted no time in recording two victories over fences. The latest of those came in Grade 3 company over 2m4f where he ran on strongly late on and I think he will only improve again once stepped up to 3m. As we have discussed already, Nicky Henderson has a wealth of talent at his disposal in most areas and this is no different. Different Gravey hasn’t had too much racing to date but he looked a natural over the larger obstacles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He did make a slight error at the second last which can be forgiven but once David Bass shook him up he really started to motor and he pinged the last. A winning pointer over 3m, he has only tried 3m once under rules at Aintree but I wouldn’t be concerned about him trying it again come the spring. At this very early stage, one who stands out at a big price for the RSA is Martello Tower who won the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015. His connections decided to stick down the hurdling route last term without success but there was plenty to like about his chasing debut at Navan for all he was beaten a couple of weeks ago. That run came over 2m1f which would have been much too short for him but he ran on strongly in the closing stages. He looks likely to step up in trip this weekend which should reveal more but he looks a lively outsider at this early stage of the season. Bets JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) As I discussed earlier re the World Hurdle there are a number of horses towards the head of the betting who are at this stage unlikely to line up in this race. That means that there are some horses who are bigger prices than they should be and at this stage I think Jezki is a big price at 14/1. He missed all of last season having been found to have heat in his foreleg but the indications are that all is well with the eight-year-old and he is set to return to action at Leopardstown over Christmas. It is worth bearing in mind that he was 6/1 joint favourite for the World Hurdle before being ruled out last year, having improved a good deal for stepping in trip when winning the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f and the World Series Hurdle over 3m at Punchestown. He has always been a high-class performer having won eight Grade 1s including a Champion Hurdle and if he returns with the same ability he left with, he could take all the beating in this race. Clearly that isn’t a given but he likes Cheltenham, stays three miles and in my opinion he should be about 8/1 rather than 14/1 so I think he is a good horse to start my ante-post diary with for this year arsenalfh and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 2 Champion Hurdle Faugheen missed another potential return last week as the eight-year-old did not feature amongst the declarations for the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. However, having missed the Morgiana with a bruise, Patrick Mullins reported on Friday that the gelding was back in work but that they were keen to wait until he was really sparkling before sending him back to the racecourse. Christmas looks a likely target with both the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, which he has won for the past two seasons or the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown both potential starting points. In his absence, the Hatton’s Grace produced a thrilling renewal with Apple’s Jade getting the better of Faugheen’s stablemate Vroum Vroum Mag in a head-bobbing finish. The winner had the benefit of race fitness and she seemed to appreciate the step up in trip as she battled back gamely on the far side to hold off her rival. She is as short as 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this but you would have to think that the Mares’ Hurdle looks more likely at this stage. There doesn’t look to be much between these two and a glance at the betting for the Mares Hurdle tells you a similar story. Away from the racecourse, one interesting piece of news to come out this week was that Yanworth is likely to stick down the two mile route, in a bid to keep him away from Unowhatimeanharry, who wears the same colours. He has been given an entry in the International Hurdle at the weekend but I understand that is as a back-up for My Tent Or Yours so it might be that we see him next at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Personally, I felt that going up in trip was the only way to go following his laboured display in the Coral Hurdle and although he is as short as 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle, I would be surprised if he were good enough to break the Mullins stranglehold on the race. I briefly alluded to this weekend’s International Hurdle a little earlier and this could offer some clues with Mister Miyagi, My Tent Or Yours, Old Guard and The New One all believed to be likely participants. Some of them have plenty to prove with March in mind but it looks a decent renewal and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. Champion Chase Sandown’s Tingle Creek attracted more attention last week for those not present than those who did turn up but despite Douvan swerving that engagement in favour of running at Cork this weekend, we were still treated to a pulsating renewal. The race still went to the Master of Closutton as Un De Sceaux prevailed from Sire De Grugy despite making a mistake at the final two fences. If anything it was Un De Sceaux’s stamina which just gave him the advantage in the closing stages and unless it was soft ground, I find it hard to see winning a Champion Chase at the second attempt. I think we can all agree that Sire De Grugy’s best days are behind him and the close-up third God’s Own ran a fine race considering his blunder at the second fence but I think it is fair to say that we know his limitations with March in mind. The one to take out of the race has to be Ar Mad who set out to make all under Joshua Moore but his jumping went to pieces briefly down the back straight. Sandown can do that to horses as the fences come up so quickly but it was encouraging to see him get back on an even keel and run on so strongly in the closing stages. It is no surprise to hear Gary Moore is considering stepping him up in trip but I wouldn’t bet against him reversing the form with those three if they met again. The question mark re the Champion Chase is that he has yet to prove he is as effective going left-handed and whilst the Ryanair would also be a viable option, I don’t think the Champion Chase has been completely ruled out just yet. World Hurdle Not much to talk about here other than what I have already mentioned above re Unowhatimeanharry. With Alan King’s Yanworth being kept away from the Long Walk Hurdle, it would appear that Harry Fry’s eight-year-old will represent the McManus operation in that race. In terms of the World Hurdle, he is now as short as 9/2 with the unlikely participant Faugheen, the only one ahead of him in the betting. Gold Cup The John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday is likely to see one of the Gold Cup contenders start their season off as Djakadam could attempt to defend his crown. A runner-up in the last two renewals of the Gold Cup, Willie Mullins’ gelding is still only seven and if he returns in the same form as he did twelve months ago, it is likely his price for the Gold Cup will contract come Sunday evening. It is worth bearing in mind that he is one of eight entries from the Mullins stable but at this stage he appears a likely runner. Jonjo O’Neill’s Minella Rocco attracted some support for the Gold Cup at big prices last week but his supporters’ confidence will have been dented by the crashing fall at the final fence at Aintree on Saturday. He looked held on the run to that fence before coming down and I suspect that he is some way short of Gold Cup class and I imagine he will step back into handicap company for his next run. The winner of that race was Many Clouds who made all under Leighton Aspell and despite running in the Gold Cup in the past, I suspect that his campaign is likely to be geared towards regaining his Grand National crown. Ryanair As well as Un De Sceaux and Ar Mad being trimmed for this race following the Tingle Creek, Josses Hill also threw his hat into the ring with a fine front-running display in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday. It is fair to say that Nicky Henderson’s gelding has had his fair share of problems jumping the larger obstacles but despite jumping a couple a little big, he jumped well on the whole under Noel Fehily. His trainer mentioned afterwards that he thinks he probably prefers going right-handed and that good ground is definitely important to him showcasing his best. He was eighth in the Ryanair this year but if he can hold his jumping together, he has the class to finish a good deal closer this time around. Novice Hurdlers Supreme Willie Mullins’ Airlie Beach was introduced at 14/1 for the Supreme following her surprise victory in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The six-year-old is now unbeaten in seven starts under rules and she made just about all under Ruby Walsh to win with six and a half lengths to spare. There is no doubt her cause was aided by the fall of the favourite Peace News at the second last but she quickened away impressively and we have yet to see the limit of her abilities. Clearly there are plenty of options for her including the Mares Novice Hurdle but this is a strong piece of form. As for Peace News, Henry De Bromhead’s four-year-old hadn’t been asked for an effort when coming down and he could be worth sticking with if he sharpens up his jumping. He remained unchanged in the Supreme market at around 14/1 with most firms following this mishap. One of the more interesting moves in this market this week was the one for Crack Mome, a Graham Wylie-owned four-year-old in the care of Willie Mullins. He won his only start in a French bumper and has a couple of upcoming entries at Clonmel on Thursday and Navan on Saturday so he could be worth keeping an eye on considering he is already as short as 14/1 for this race. Neptune Last week’s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Sandown on Friday may have thrown up a few Neptune clues with Messire Des Obeaux defying a penalty to get the better of last season’s Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy. It is fair to say that Alan King’s four-year-old looked booked for third between the final two flights but once the stamina came into play up the Sandown hill, he responded gamely to get his head in front and win by half a length. Daryl Jacob commented afterwards that he was a real galloper and that he could next head to the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. The bookmakers weren’t terribly moved as he remains as big as 25/1 for the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett. As for the runner-up, he had looked as though he would appreciate the step up in trip and whilst he may have done, despite the conditions of the race favouring him, he was unable to get his head in front. He was pushed out to a general 20/1 for the Neptune and for the time being, it seems Nigel Twiston-Davies will have to go back to the drawing board. The winner could be joined in the Challow Hurdle by Geordie Des Champs defied a double penalty to win at Chepstow on Saturday. Rebecca Curtis’ five-year-old seems to be coming along nicely at present and looks to have earned a step up in class, which should tell us more about his likely Spring targets. Triumph Joseph O’Brien continues to have a stranglehold on the Triumph Hurdle market and the current ante-post favourite Landofhopeandglory made it three from three over obstacles when winning the Grade 3 Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. It looked a strong field beforehand with Gordon Elliott saddling the impressive Down Royal winner Mega Fortune and the Mullins yard was represented by French hurdles winner Bapaume. It was these three who fought out the finish with the favourite responding generously to pressure once Barry Geraghty got stuck in after the last. He seems to be improving with each run over hurdles and should now head for the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is a general 7/1 shot for the Triumph at this stage but it is worth bearing in mind that we have yet to see his stablemates Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter (who were both rated higher on the flat) run over hurdles. On this side of the Irish Sea, Defi Du Seuil looks the one with most potential at this stage of the season and he could get another chance to showcase his talents at Cheltenham this weekend. He could face a couple of winners in the shape of Cliffs Of Dover and Domperignon Du Lys which should tell us more about the ability he possesses. We might also gain some clues up at Doncaster as they host the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle which was won by Peace And Co a couple of years ago. Alan King has a couple of entries both here and at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see which way he decides to go with his representatives. The last performance to mention here was that of Evening Hush who won for the second time over hurdles for Evan Williams at Aintree on Saturday. Having made all at Exeter on her hurdling debut, she repeated the trick here, setting an even pace in front and her rivals looked to be struggling from some way out. Whether she goes down the Triumph route is unclear at this stage but she is clearly talented and she also has the option of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Festival. Novice Chasers Arkle We got chance to see the Arkle favourite in action on Saturday as Altior took on three rivals in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Having completed what was effectively a schooling session at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, this was much more of a test for Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old and he made a couple of jumping errors early on before warming to the task. Noel Fehily was keen to keep hold of him and having tracked Charbel going to the last, he swept clear under hands and heels to win by six lengths. That acceleration from the back of the last showed just how talented a performer he is and if he does some work on his jumping, he looks the one they have to beat at the Festival. I was also impressed with the run of Charbel in second and his trainer confirmed afterwards that they would look to step him up in trip going forward. He jumps well and could reappear in the Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. JLT A couple of potential JLT horses emerged in the last week including Its’afreebee who bounced back from a below-par run at Cheltenham to win at Wetherby on Saturday. The fitting of a tongue-tie for the first time seemed to make all the difference and the six-year-old was eased down close home to win impressively by seven lengths. In behind him was the 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden who was returning from an absence but he was still a shade disappointing. Much like his stablemate One Track Mind a week before he jumped very big and never really got into a rhythm over his fences. A step up to 3m should show him in a better light but he has plenty to prove over the larger obstacles as it stands. Another who threw his hat into the ring was Alan Fleming’s Tully East who made a winning debut over fences at Thurles on Thursday. Denis O’Regan was reported to be very impressed with the six-year-old who could now step into Grade 1 company for his next assignment. He was fourth in the Martin Pipe at last year’s Festival and this gelding promises to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler. It is also worth noting that Barry Geraghty doesn’t often head to Catterick on a Wednesday but he was there last week to partner Laissez Dire on his chasing debut. The four-year-old was a dual winner over hurdles in France and having accounted for the useful Work In Progress on the bridle, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. RSA The Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase may be run over 2m4f but it often throws up plenty of clues for the RSA and the winner Coney Island looks sure to appreciate the step up to 3m in the future. Eddie Harty’s five-year-old jumped well in the hands of Mark Walsh and he found plenty once challenged after the last. This may have been a small surprise on the day but there didn’t seem to be any fluke about this and he could bid to follow up at Leopardstown over Christmas. Back in second was Tony Martin’s Anibale Fly who seemed to run his race but just couldn’t pick up as well as the winner in the closing stages. He might just have been outstayed by the winner and could stick to this intermediate trip for the time being. Of the rest, Alpha Des Obeaux remains popular towards the head of the market for the RSA having attempted to make all here under Mark Enright. He is another who should appreciate a more searching test of stamina for his next assignment. Martello Tower also threw his hat into the mix by getting off the mark at the second attempt on Saturday at Fairyhouse. The eight-year-old found 2m1f on the sharp side at Navan a few weeks ago but the 2m5f trip was much more suitable on this occasion and she showed a fine attitude to hold off the pursuing A Genie In A Bottle. This former Albert Bartlett winner should enjoy going back over three miles at some stage and he is the sort who tends to just do enough. In Britain, Aux Ptits Soins made no mistake at Kelso on Sunday when getting off the mark at the second time of asking. He looked in need of the run at Exeter last month following a long absence but he stripped much fitter for this outing and had to dig deep to hold off the useful Westren Warrior close home. To be honest I was expecting a little more from him here but it is still early days and he should improve with experience. The final one to mention Champers On Ice made a winning start to his chasing career at Uttoxeter today, getting the better of Kim Bailey’s Dueling Banjos. He seemed inclined to jump slightly to his left throughout the race and despite the odd mistake late on, he never really looked like getting beat. We are likely to learn more as the season goes on and he is stepped up in grade but this was an encouraging start to life over fences. Bets CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) I briefly mentioned above that I had been impressed with the run of Charbel on Saturday behind Altior with Kim Bailey’s five-year-old having jumped well for most of the way before succumbing to Altior’s potent turn of foot. In the aftermath, his trainer has confirmed that the intention is to go up in trip with him and he even mentioned that his most likely target at the Festival would be the JLT, although he would also get an entry in the Arkle. I was therefore surprised to see that a couple of bookmakers still have him as big as 33/1 for that race, especially when you consider that Top Notch and Le Prezien (who he has already beaten over fences) are around half that price. Charbel has some form around Cheltenham having finished fifth in the Supreme and he may have finished closer but for a mistake at the final hurdle. The Henry VIII Novices’ Chase often serves as a good guide to the JLT with Taquin Du Seuil having been placed in this prior to winning the JLT and Bristol De Mai was placed in both races last year. I am aware that Charbel will need to continue to improve to win a race of this nature but he has already shown signs that he will be a better chaser than a hurdler and I think he is worth a small each-way bet at 33/1. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook corky and arsenalfh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 3 Champion Hurdle Nigel Twiston-Davies’ The New One put any talk of novice chasing on hold at the weekend as he landed a third renewal of the International Hurdle under Richard Johnson. In a switch of tactics from normal, the eight-year-old made the running before seeing off the challenge of My Tent Or Yours (to whom he was conceding 8lb) up the hill. It now seems that he will stick down the hurdling route and could go next to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle before returning to Cheltenham in March for another go at the Champion Hurdle (for which he is as short as 14/1). However, it is worth noting that Twiston-Davies’ assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn thinks it would be better to perhaps go down the World Hurdle route, having come up short in three renewals of the Champion already. I suspect that we will see him on the Tuesday of the Festival rather than the Thursday. As for the runner-up, it was another disappointing performance from My Tent Or Yours who was best off at the weights with most of his rivals but having travelled well, he once again found very little when push came to shove. I do think he is a better horse on better ground and once again the conditions transpired against him here, but he now has something to prove on his next start. The potential improver in the race looked to be Mister Miyagi but having been badly behaved in the preliminaries he ran no sort of race under Harry Skelton. This ground was probably soft enough for him but he was still some way short of what was expected. Champion Chase Sunday saw the return to action of the ante-post favourite Douvan and Willie Mullins’ charge could not have been more impressive in dispatching his rivals at Cork. Paul Townend sent the six-year-old into the lead early on and he jumped brilliantly out in front before extending his advantage after the fourth last. He made a slight error at the third last but he raced clear of his rivals on the bridle and he won by 22 lengths despite never appearing to come out of second or third gear. It is worth noting that the second and third Days Hotel and Fine Rightly are unlikely to be of the level of opposition that he will face in March but this was still a very impressive display. At this stage, it looks something of a one-horse race with Douvan now as short as 4/9 and barring any accidents he looks likely to pick up this prize, but there is still a long way to go until we get to March and as we saw with his stablemate Faugheen last year, anything can happen between now and the Festival. Gold Cup The runner-up in the last two Gold Cups Djakadam made a winning reappearance on Sunday as he landed the John Durkan Memorial Chase for a second consecutive year. Ruby Walsh always had the leaders in his sights aboard the seven-year-old and looked to be going best when moving through to lead on the run to the second last. He was challenged from the back of the last but his stamina soon kicked in and he found plenty on the run to the line to win by one and a quarter lengths. The second and third places were filled by the two Gigginstown runners Outlander and Sub Lieutenant who as we know are both a little short of Grade 1 class but it was still a good performance. In terms of the Gold Cup, you would have to think that he is likely to find one too good come March as he has in the last two years but the injury he picked at Cheltenham in January must have interrupted his preparation last season and with a clear run this time perhaps he can put up a career best performance. He is still only seven but he doesn’t jump out as must bet at 10/1 at present. Ryanair The disappointment of the John Durkan was Black Hercules who was expected to give his stablemate a race but having made a couple of jumping errors on the way round, he dropped away tamely once the pace quickened. Apparently, no obvious reason for the below-par display has come to light but he has turned in the odd puzzling display in the past so perhaps it is best just to put a line through it. Having won the JLT at last year’s Festival the Ryanair seems the logical target and he was pushed out to as big as 14/1 for that race. Paul Nicholls’ Frodon was also introduced into the Ryanair market by a couple of firms following his win in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at the weekend. He does still have the option of going down the novice route which would seem more likely at this stage but he continues to improve with racing and I’m sure all options will be kept open until the last minute. Novice Hurdlers Supreme Nicky Henderson’s Jenkins has now assumed favouritism for the Supreme on the back of Pingshou’s victory at Cheltenham on Friday. Colin Tizzard’s charge finished fourth behind Jenkins at Newbury last month and travelled smoothly into contention before quickening away in the closing stages. As for Nicky Henderson’s horse, he could make his next start in the Supreme Trial at Ascot on Friday. I mentioned in last week’s post that Crack Mome had attracted support for the Supreme and he made a pleasing start to life over hurdles when winning at Clonmel on Thursday. The Graham Wylie-owned four-year-old came away smartly from his rivals on the run-in and it seems that he will stick down the 2m route. The ground at Clonmel may also have been soft enough for him and whist we are likely to learn more about him next time, he looks a smart prospect. Another one who looks worth mentioning is Jessica Harrington’s Sunni May who made it two from two over hurdles when winning at Punchestown on Sunday. The five-year-old is now set to step up in class over Christmas where we are likely to get a gauge on how good he is but he did it nicely on Sunday and looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Neptune Invitation Only currently leads the market for the Neptune but the Mullins stable also look to have another string to that bow in the shape of Turcagua who made light work of some decent rivals in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday. The six-year-old drew readily clear of wide margin bumper winner Champagne Classic and smart flat performer Toe The Line. He seemed to take a big step forward from his run at that venue on November and looks a chaser in the making. He is available at 25/1 for both the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett. On this side of the Irish Sea, Ben Pauling’s Willoughby Court got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles at Warwick last week. The five-year-old finished fifth in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April and showed a good attitude here to see off Tommy Rapper in the closing stages. At present he looks one for handicaps over this trip but he could benefit from a step up in trip judged on this outing. Albert Bartlett The Grade 2 Novice Hurdle of the same name at Cheltenham last Saturday saw Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Wholestone win for the third time over hurdles. Having won over 3m here in October, he was touched off over 2m5f here last time but seemed to relish the return to this trip. He found plenty for pressure to see off Ami Desbois up the run-in and he is priced between 16/1 and 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett in March. Triumph With Landofhopeandglory having impressed on his latest outing a couple of weeks ago, all eyes were on Defi Du Seuil at the weekend to see how he would fare back at Cheltenham on Saturday. He faced a stronger field than he had there in November but the result was the same as Philip Hobbs’ juvenile barely got out of second gear to dispatch the Wetherby winner Coeur De Lion. The Finale at Chepstow was mentioned in the aftermath although that might come soon enough but the Triumph is the main target this season and he is now a general 8/1 for the race. We probably haven’t seen most of the strings in Paul Nicholls’ juvenile bow but to date his best looks to be Cliffs Of Dover who made it six from seven over hurdles when winning the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster at the weekend. I suspect that he is some way behind the current market leaders in terms of ability but he is tough and looks to have earned his place in the field. Over in Ireland, there was an impressive debut performance from Dinaria Des Obeaux who turned the 3yo maiden hurdle into a precession at Cork on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s juvenile won a bumper in France in April and looks to have earned a step up in grade on the back of this 29 lengths success. She was introduced at a general 20/1 for the Triumph on the back of this debut victory. Mares Novice Willie Mullins looks to have plenty of darts to throw at this race but another stable who could have a strong hand is Nicky Henderson who could saddle Kayf Grace who had no trouble getting off the mark at the first attempt over hurdles at Bangor on Friday. The six-year-old got the better of Augusta Kate in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree in April and took to hurdling well, quickening nicely clear on the run to the line. She is as big as 12/1 whereas Augusta Kate is around half that price but is still early days with her and it will be interesting to see how she fares next time. Novice Chasers JLT Before reflecting on any performances, we have news on a couple of the ante-post market leaders including the favourite Yorkhill who looks set to make his chasing debut in Ireland this weekend. He is far from guaranteed to run in the JLT as I get the impression that connections are keen to have a go at the Arkle if possible but we know he is a high-class hurdler and he looks to have all the credentials to go to the very top over fences. Clan Des Obeaux laid down his own marker when winning at Newbury last month and Paul Nicholls has said that he is likely to make his next start in the Dipper Novices Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Those two are split in the market by American Tom who won on his chasing debut at Punchestown, getting the better of the smart Gangster. This was just his third career start and his second success since joining Willie Mullins. He should appreciate going left handed having jumped that way for much of the race and with this experience under his belt, he should be able to be competitive up in grade. They could be joined in this race by O O Seven who was a disappointing favourite when stepped up to three miles at Doncaster at the weekend. He had won well over 2m4f at Cheltenham on his reappearance and having come up short on Saturday, I suspect he will drop back in trip for his next assignment. RSA Getting the better of O O Seven on Saturday was Paul Nicholls’ Present Man who followed up his handicap success at Ascot with another game performance under Jack Sherwood. He got the better of Potters Legend who finished second and can be backed at 33/1 for the RSA. Slightly shorter in the market for the RSA is Whisper who got back to winning ways at Cheltenham despite the lesser fancied of the two Henderson runners beforehand. He was ridden patiently by Davy Russell which he seemed to enjoy and he found enough for pressure to see off Baron Alco up the Cheltenham hill. The disappointment of the race was Different Gravey whose jumping badly let him down on this occasion. It didn’t look as though there was anything wrong with him afterwards but this might send connections back to the drawing board and he is likely to see his sights lowered in a bid to get some confidence back. Bets I have no bets to advise this week. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook arsenalfh and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 4 Gold Cup The staying chase division may have needed a lift this week as following the news on Sunday that Coneygree would miss the King George following a unsatisfactory piece of work, it looked as though Kempton’s Boxing Day showpiece would be something of a formality. However, news came on Monday that the owners of Thistlecrack had decided to step the eight-year-old out of novice company and take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George. This is clearly going to be the biggest test of Thistlecrack’s chasing career to date and the big question mark is how his jumping will hold up in this more competitive race, likely to be run at a stronger gallop than the three chases he has contested so far. If his jumping does stand up to the rigours of race, then it is hard to argue he won’t have too many gears for his older stablemate but it promises to be quite a clash. The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 28th also promises to be an informative race with Valseur Lido set to head there instead of coming over for the King George. There was also news of last season’s Gold Cup winner Don Cossack who is reported to be making a steady recovery from the injury he suffered back in April. A programme of cantering and swimming is keeping the nine-year-old ticking over at the minute and his trainer has suggested that he is likely to have one run, possibly in the Red Mills Chase in February before heading straight to the Gold Cup. I continue to look at the Gold Cup market with the view that there must be a bet to be had but at the minute I am struggling to find an angle, especially with so many question marks over some of the leading protagonists. Champion Hurdle The same can be said about the Champion Hurdle for which Annie Power and Faugheen share favouritism in most books at around 5/2, with Yanworth next best at around the 8/1 mark. It is probably a reflection of the lack of depth in the 2m hurdling division on this side of the water than Brain Power was introduced into the market at 25/1 following his impressive success at Ascot on Saturday. Of course we didn’t see most of it but he came readily clear under David Mullins in the closing stages and it was some performance under a big weight. Having said that, he still looks some way short of Champion Hurdle class at the moment and would need to improve a good deal to trouble the Irish contenders come March. The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton can often have a bearing on the Champion Hurdle market but the race was reopened this morning having attracted just the five runners at the entry stage. We will know more by lunchtime tomorrow but Yanworth, My Tent Or Yours and The New One appear to be likely runners and no doubt Willie Mullins will have something to send over. Stayers Hurdle Our first bit of housekeeping in this section is to highlight that with Sun Bets having taken over the sponsorship of this race from Ladbrokes, they have decided to change its name back to the Stayers Hurdle, dropping the World Hurdle title which it has carried in recent years. To more important news and Unowhatimeanharry solidified his place at the head of the market as he stretched his winning sequence to seven in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. His task was made somewhat easier by Ballyoptic falling at the last but the eight-year-old found plenty for Barry Geraghty and won with four and a half lengths to spare at the line. Back in second was Lil Rockerfeller who once again ran a creditable race although his trainer felt afterwards that he may have found himself further back than ideal. This might have been the case but he certainly saw the three miles out ok and this looks to be his likely target at the Festival. As for the final flight faller Ballyoptic this was a much more encouraging performance than his run at Newbury but he seems to be making a habit of falling towards the end of his races. He clearly sticks his neck out for his jockey but if he is having tired falls at Wetherby and Ascot then the likelihood is that he might find the Cheltenham hill a little tricky. In terms of our bet for the race, it was good to hear news from the Jessica Harrington team this week that Jezki is all set to return in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown next week. The eight-year-old seems to have taken preparations well and let’s hope he can put in a solid effort on his return to action. Novice Hurdlers Supreme SkyBet were the first firm to go No Runner No Bet (NRNB) on this race on Friday ahead of the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot on Friday. That race went the way of Paul Nicholls’ Capitaine who may have been a shade disappointing when finishing second at Haydock last month, but the quicker ground and the switch to front-running tactics seemed to make a big difference. He beat a field which included the likes of Captain Forez, who shaped well when third behind Jenkins at Newbury as well as two well-regarded Nicky Henderson runners in Lough Derg Spirit and Thomas Campbell. The last two mentioned look ready for a step up in trip now but the winner was trimmed to around 25/1 on the back of this effort. Willie Mullins has a number of horses that could potentially line up in the Supreme but I must admit I was impressed with the way Cilaos Emery got the job done at Navan last weekend. The four-year-old was making his first start since landing a bumper at the end of April and had no trouble seeing off more experienced rivals to win by six lengths at the line. It is hard to know how strong the form is in behind but he looks to have an engine and I would like to see him step up in class before long. We might get more of an idea of the Mullins pecking order in the next week as the entries for the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown included six from the stable including the likes of Airlie Beach, Penhill and Crack Mome. On this side of the Irish sea, the favourite Jenkins looks set to line-up at Kempton on Boxing Day, having been entered in the opening novice hurdle. The form of his Newbury win has worked out to varying degrees but this promises to be a stiffer test of his credentials. Neptune Invitation Only was demoted from the head of the Neptune market on Sunday as Willie Mullins’ five-year-old could only finish third behind Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty at Navan. The winner has now assumed favouritism in both this race and the Albert Bartlett, although given he is as short as 9/4 for the latter it seems he is more likely to head down the 3m route. I have to say that I was really impressed with the way Death Duty quickened up given his size and you would have to think that he will relish stepping up in trip before long. A possible outsider for the Neptune could be High Bridge who made a winning start to his hurdling career at Newbury last week. The five-year-old was a smart bumper horse for John Ferguson, finishing sixth in the Champion Bumper and he stayed on strongly here to win in some style. This was over 2m but he looks ready for a step up to 2m4f and if he has a potential target at the Festival it is likely to be this. Another potential Neptune prospect is Finians Oscar who went a little way to justifying his £250,000 price tag when winning by seven lengths at Hereford yesterday. This Irish point winner is reported to be one of the best young horses in the stable of Colin Tizzard and he had little trouble seeing off course winner Acting Lass who was carrying a penalty. Clearly three miles could be on his radar before the end of the season although Tizzard missed Cheltenham with Thistlecrack a couple of years ago in favour of the Sefton at Aintree and it could be that this four-year-old does the same. Albert Bartlett Paul Nicholls has yet to win the Albert Bartlett and whilst this contest wasn’t mentioned for either horse, he has introduced a couple of smart 3m prospects in the last week. Give Me A Copper cost £270,000 on the back of winning a maiden point and a bumper in Ireland and he had no trouble getting off the mark for Paul Nicholls at Exeter last week. When most of his rivals had cried enough, the six-year-old forged clear under Sam Twiston-Davies to win by fourteen lengths. He is clearly a chaser in the making but he should be able to pick up a nice prize this year and he was introduced at a general 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett. His stablemate Topofthegame also looked one for the future when winning at Ascot on Friday, despite having a good look around after the final flight. Thankfully Sam Twiston-Davies got just enough out of him to hold on and he looks sure to be suited by the step up to three miles. He beat Dan Skelton’s No Hassle Hoff but nine lengths in a point-to-point and looks another promising youngster for the Ditcheat team. Mares Novice I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Camelia De Cotte had attracted support for the Mares Novice Hurdle and Willie Mullins’ four-year-old made a winning start to her career in Ireland at Tramore last week. Sent off the 1/5 favourite Ruby Walsh always looked to have plenty in hand and once he gave her a bit of rein, the four-year-old picked up impressively to win going away from her rivals. She is as short as 5/1 for the Novice in March but can still be backed at 8/1 with a couple of firms. Fergal O’Brien has enjoyed a fine start to the season and the mare Colin’s Sister embodies that, having won three times, most recently a Listed hurdle at Haydock last weekend. When she has her conditions she seems to pretty good but her trainer is on record as saying that the further she goes the better so perhaps this 2m contest is not on her radar despite being as short as 12/1. Novice Chasers Arkle Two of the top five in the ante-post market made their chasing debuts last weekend, beginning with last year’s Neptune winner Yorkhill who had no trouble seeing off his rivals at Fairyhouse on Saturday. The six-year-old jumped well throughout but it was noticeable that he was inclined to jump to his left at times. That clearly wouldn’t be as much of an issue at Cheltenham but it might just have been inexperience which caused him to do that. He would clearly have been a leading hope for the Supreme had connections decided to go down that route last year and I suspect that a similar conversation may be had at some stage regarding the Arkle or the JLT. Personally, I would like to see him stick down the 2m route and his trainer indicated afterwards that the Irish Arkle was likely to be his next target. The other leading hope to embark on a chasing career at the weekend was Nicky Henderson’s Buveur D’Air who may have finished third to stablemate Altior in the Supreme but he showed he was a talented performer in his own right when winning a Grade 1 at Aintree. Like most of the racing on Saturday it was hard to see much of the race at Haydock but Aidan Coleman was happy to take a lead for the majority of the race before moving through to challenge at the last. Once he was given half a push, he soon quickened clear of the smart Cloudy Dream (who was conceding 8lb to the winner) to win in fine style. He is another who could step up to 2m4f before long and certainly the JLT could come into consideration with the prospect of facing Altior on connections’ minds. Cloudy Dream didn’t lose anything in defeat and clearly on level weights it would have been a lot harder for the winner. Malcolm Jefferson is confident that better ground will bring about improvement in his horse, although I suspect he is likely to come up a little short were he to tackle the Arkle. Over in Ireland, we could have an interesting clash at Leopardstown as Min and Identity Thief have both been entered to run in the Racing Post Chase. Both look to have bright futures ahead of them over the bigger obstacles and it should give us a better idea of where they stand with the Arkle in mind. JLT The form of my selection Charbel got a nice boost last week with Le Prezien and Top Notch and both winning again over fences, leading bookmakers to trim them for this race. The former took on a more experienced rival in the shape of L’Ami Serge at Exeter in the week and having jumped well for the most part, stayed on strongly to win going away under Barry Geraghty. The extra couple of furlongs didn’t seem to trouble the five-year-old and the JLT looks the most likely option should he head to the Festival although most of his form has been on soft ground so Spring ground may prove a different kettle of fish for him. There was also a lot to like about the performance of Top Notch on Saturday or at least the last couple of fences, where he jumped well before digging up deep late on to hold off his rivals Sizing Codelco and Hammersly Lake. The 2m5f trip may just have stretched him on Saturday so it might be that he misses Cheltenham in favour of the 2m4f chase at Aintree but it is good to see the form working out well for Kim Bailey’s Charbel. Another who might have thrown his hat into the ring for this race is Politologue who made just about all to win the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot on Friday. The five-year-old jumped boldly out in front for Sam Twiston-Davies and was probably just idling when having to be driven out from the back of the last. Paul Nicholls was keen to rule out the RSA as a potential target for the Spring and suggested that he was likely to keep the gelding to 2m4f for the time being. Much like Le Prezien, he still needs to show that he can reproduce that form on better ground but he jumped really well on Friday and looks to have a bright future over the larger obstacles. RSA Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind was fancied to make a big impact over fences this term but the six-year-old once again found himself coming up short at Catterick last week. Stepping up to 3m, he never travelled with much fluency and was given reminders on the second circuit by Gavin Sheehan. He kept on eventually to finish third but was some ten lengths behind the Sue Smith trained pair of Delusionofgrandeur and Vintage Clouds. He doesn’t seem to have taken to fences so far so it will be interesting to see where connections go next. As for the winner, he looks a strong staying chaser for the future which is typical for the yard and looks a nice horse, whilst the runner-up continues to bump into one, although he should improve as he develops physically. One horse who I followed closely as a novice hurdler last year was Rebecca Curtis’ Mystical Knight and he made a winning start to his chasing career at Hereford yesterday. The seven-year-old was wearing a tongue-strap for the first time and it seemed to help him as he won in good style from some horses who were arguably better over hurdles. Clearly something was amiss when he underperformed at Aintree in the Sefton but this dual winning pointer looks to have found his game and he is as big as 33/1 for the RSA at this early stage. The final one to mention with regards to this race is Barney Dwan who having made a bad mistake when having the race at his mercy at Kempton, was brought down at Wincanton last week when looking as though he was set to gain compensation. This six-year-old won the EBF Final last year so clearly has an engine and I think he can improve as a chaser. He does need to sharpen up his jumping as he was a bit guessy early on at Wincanton but he is in good hands and should be able to pick up a race before long. Bets I have no bets to advise this week, I think the next week will give us a clearer picture on a few races so we will keep our powder dry for the time being. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook arsenalfh and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 5 The Christmas period often has a big effect on the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festivals, with a number of top-class races on both sides of the Irish Sea. It tends to see a number of Festival races thinned out with plenty of dreams shattered as well as some dark horses emerging from out of the woodwork. Gold Cup The King George was billed as a match between the two stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack but despite the elder statesman challenging briefly down the back straight, it was more of a precession than a race. Despite his relative inexperience, Thistlecrack jumped boldly before sauntering clear as the field turned for home. He never really came off the bridle and was eased down close home to win by just over three lengths at the line. Not surprisingly, he was cut to as short as 4/5 for the Gold Cup because all being well, it looks as though if he gets round, he has an engine bigger than any racehorse in training. Having said that there were a couple of alarming leaps at the open ditches on Boxing Day which could cause him some problems back at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Cotswold Chase in January. Colin Tizzard appears to have an embarrassment of riches in the staying chase division and Native River threw his hat firmly into the Gold Cup ring with a fine weight carrying performance in the Welsh National at Chepstow. Despite his big weight, the way he raced clear from the fourth last marked him as more than a handicapper and it was only Raz De Maree (carrying 10st 7lb) that managed to get anywhere near him. His jumping was excellent and he looks to have found a perfect partner in Richard Johnson to get the best out of him. A Grade 1 winner last term as a novice, he continues to improve and with stamina unlikely to hold any fears, the winner of the Gold Cup is going to have to go some to get past him. Over in Ireland, the Lexus Chase promised to throw up some Gold Cup clues and Djakadam was sent off the 5/4 favourite. However, Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old could only finish third to Outlander who he had beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Punchestown and the pair were split by the enigmatic Don Poli. There wasn’t much between the first four home at the final fence but it was Outlander who found most under Jack Kennedy to race clear and win by a widening two lengths. You would have to think that Djakadam underperformed but he has come up short in two Gold Cups already and it is hard to see him going one better this time around, for all he will only be 8 come March. Willie Mullins said afterwards that they might make more use of him next time as he jumped well yesterday and he could be another to head straight to Cheltenham. The winner Outlander fell when still holding every chance in the JLT last year but looks set to head back to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, where he wouldn’t be without a chance. He can still be backed at 20/1 but would prefer a slower surface to be seen to best effect. Also news came through today that Coneygree now appears likely to head straight to Cheltenham having suffered a setback in recent days. Sara Bradstock said she was still confident of getting the horse there but that they were more focussed on getting him in perfect shape and also raised the possibility of missing Cheltenham entirely. Champion Hurdle The big mover in the Champion Hurdle market was Yanworth who put aside any fears about him dropping back to two miles with a ready victory in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Alan King’s six-year-old was a shade disappointing when winning on his return to action and it looked for a long way here as though he was struggling before picking up turning for home. Having moved through to lead at the final flight, he raced away from his rivals to hit the line strong and you would have to think that the stiff finish at Cheltenham is likely to suit him in a strongly run Champion Hurdle. He is now a general 5/1 shot for the race which I think is short considering his hurdling is far from fluent and he looked to be out-paced for much of the race. He could still have improvement in him with March in mind but I suspect he is only as short as 5/1 because there are question marks over the two market leaders Faugheen and Annie Power. In behind Yanworth was The New One who set out to make all and probably just paid the price for getting racing too early in the latter stages of the race. We know he isn’t good enough to win the Champion Hurdle so I don’t see what connections have to lose by having a go at the World Hurdle, something Sam Twiston-Davies mentioned on Boxing Day. Ch’Tibello ran on well from the back to snatch third but looks some way short of Champion Hurdle class. Whilst My Tent Or Yours looked to have got his ideal conditions but made a tired mistake at the last and it looks as though his best days are behind him. We got some more clues this afternoon in the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle as Petit Mouchoir ran out a ready winner. Henry De Bromhead’s five-year-old looked to be travelling as well as anything when coming down at the third last in the Fighting Fifth and gained compensation with this success. He was in front just after the first flight and remained there for the duration, kicking clear on the turn for home and maintaining his advantage to win by seven lengths from Nichols Canyon. He was trimmed to a general 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and looks a player judged on this effort. There was also news of Faugheen in the past couple of days as the former Champion was reported to be working every day and connections are hopeful that they will have him back for the Irish Champion Hurdle on the 29th January. It hasn’t been anything serious that has kept him off the track just a couple of niggles following the stone bruise he suffered a few weeks ago. Champion Chase Willie Mullins’ Douvan once again demonstrated just how far clear of his rivals he is by running away with the Paddy Power Cashcard Chase at Leopardstown on Tuesday. The six-year-old was already short for the Champion Chase but he is now as short as 1/3 with Paddy Power to land the spoils at Cheltenham in March. It is very hard to see anything giving him a race in March and in truth, you could make him favourite for almost any race at the Festival. The Champion Chase crown looks his to lose and barring any setbacks, the rest look to be playing for second and third place. Special Tiara made the most of the race conditions being in his favour when winning the Desert Orchid Chase just over an hour later at Kempton. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old had to work pretty hard to see off the challenge of Sir Valentino but was always doing enough and he should be suited by a return to Cheltenham in March. He has been placed at the last two Festivals and if the ground is on the quick side, he should be thereabouts fighting for a place again this year. Stayers Hurdle My ante-post selection Jezki was not declared for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown with JP McManus represented instead by the French import Kotkikova. Jessica Harrington’s eight-year-old does have an entry at Punchestown at the weekend though, so it will be interesting to see if he lines up there. In his absence, Vroum Vroum Mag led home a 1-2 for the Willie Mullins team as stablemate Clondaw Warrior followed the mare home in second. Ruby Walsh always looked confident on the eventual winner and it might have been a Mullins 1-2-3 had Shaneshill not fallen when still in contention at the final flight. In terms of future targets, Vroum Vroum Mag is likely to be pitched in wherever she is needed with both chases and hurdles a viable option come the Festival. She can be backed at 8/1 for the World Hurdle although I suspect she will be a bit shorter if this ends up being her target. Ryanair Following his defeat in the King George, it now appears that Cue Card could be re-routed to the Ryanair, the race he won back in 2013. He was no match for Thistlecrack at Kempton and Native River also looks a viable contender so the Tizzards have raised the possibility of him dropping back in trip, taking in the Grade 1 at Ascot next before heading to Cheltenham. He was introduced as the 5/1 market leader with most firms and although he is a different horse to the one that won three years ago, he would still have to be considered a leading contender. Another beaten horse in the King George also looks likely to head to the Ryanair and that is Josses Hill who failed to see out the trip on his first start at 3m. The encouraging thing was his jumping has been much better this term in his two successes at Kempton and Huntingdon as well as in the King George on Monday. Whether he is as effective going left-handed over fences is still a question mark but he was third in the Arkle in the not too distant past so he makes some appeal at 14/1. Novice Hurdlers Supreme The big shake-up in the Supreme market came on Boxing Day as the ante-post favourite Jenkins was well-beaten having been sent off the 1/2 favourite for the opening novice hurdle. He had jumped poorly on his hurdling debut at Newbury and here he seemed to be very slow at his obstacles and he found very little when asked to pick up by David Bass. The way he hung after the last perhaps indicated that all was not well with him but he is now as big as 25/1 for the Supreme and that looks a long way off at present. 25/1 is also the price for the winner of the race Elgin who made it two from two over hurdles for Alan King. His trainer was impressed that the four-year-old seemed to have improved for his run at Newcastle and he settled much better for Wayne Hutchinson here. In terms of future plans, he could go back to Kempton for the Dovecote prior to having a crack at the Festival. The Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown can often throw up a nice horse and this time around it went the way of Saturnas who went one better than when chasing home Airlie Beach at Fairyhouse earlier this month. He seemed to appreciate more forceful tactics and whilst I suspect he could come up short in both races, I think he could end up in the Neptune come March. Neptune Willie Mullins has another couple of potential runners in the Neptune including Bacardys who made no mistake when getting off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles earlier this week. Having fallen on his first attempt, the five-year-old still made the odd jumping mistake but had plenty in hand when making his move around the home turn. He clearly has an engine having won the Aintree bumper last year and his trainer intimated afterwards that he could step up in trip next time. He is as big as 20/1 for the Neptune, but we are unlikely to know what race he is lining up in until much nearer the time. Battleford also managed to get back to winning ways this afternoon when getting the better of a prolonged duel with Coeur Joyeux at Leopardstown. The five-year-old made quite a few errors on the way round but he definitely seemed to appreciate the step up in trip and he could even go up in trip again. His trainer suggested afterwards that the five-year-old may not be fully fit yet because of his size and whilst further progress can’t be ruled out, he is going to have to take a good step forward to be of interest for the Spring Festivals. Triumph There were quite a number of reputations put to the test in this division in the last week and the one who emerged most favourably was Defi Du Seuil who assumed sole favouritism with an impressive victory in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Philip Hobbs’ three-year-old was well fancied beforehand and had no trouble brushing aside the smart Evening Hush on the run to the third last before stretching clear in the closing stages. He did get a little lonely late on as he made a couple of jumping errors but he had plenty in hand and coasted home to win by thirteen lengths. He does seem to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground so were the ground to come up quick at Cheltenham, it would pose something of a question mark but he is very exciting and at this stage he looks a leading contender for the race. In fact, JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand with the army of juveniles at Joseph O’Brien’s disposal and he also introduced a nice horse of Nicky Henderson’s at Kempton on Tuesday in Charli Parcs. This was the horse’s British debut having won a hurdle at Enghien in November and he jumped very well on just his second start. He raced clear of his rivals once sent into the lead at the third last and Noel Fehily barely had to move on him. He was much the best on the day despite conceding at least 5lb to all his rivals and he looks a smart prospect with the Triumph in mind. Before Christmas, Joseph O’Brien’s Landofhopeandglory was towards the head of most lists but he now finds himself as big as 12/1 having finished second to old rival Bapaume at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. The pair had met at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month but Willie Mullins’ gelding seemed to benefit from the run and in receipt of 3lb, he was able to reverse the placings. I suspect that there will be a couple of horses we haven’t seen yet who will be popular for the Triumph but these two set a decent standard and I don’t see them being too far away on the day. Another one to throw into the mix is Meri Devie who made a successful start to her hurdling career at Leopardstown the following day. The three-year-old was beaten less than five lengths in Group 1 company in May on the flat and ran out a ready winner here from the well-touted Housesofparliament. Ruby Walsh believes that she will improve for the run both in terms of her jumping as well as fitness and the 7lb allowance she would receive in the Triumph makes her of serious interest. Further back in the field was Queen’s Vase winner Sword Fighter who will need to jump better if he is to make an impact in this sphere. Novice Chasers Arkle The top two in the market both had a run in the past week with Min being the first to showcase his talents on Boxing Day. He was sent off the 4/5F in a race which included Identity Thief but that rival only made it half way down the back straight as following a few notable errors, he was pulled up and found to be lame. In contrast, Willie Mullins’ five-year-old jumped impeccably out in front and had his rivals in trouble on the run to the last. He made a strange shape at the final fence but got over safely and raced away up the run-in to win impressively. He has a few lengths to find with Altior on last season’s Supreme but the Mullins camp believe that he wasn’t himself that day, so a closer race could well be on the cards. Over at Kempton, Altior had no problem seeing off three rivals to land the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase. The six-year-old jumped well the whole way round and having been given a little bit of rein, he moved through to lead at the third last before coasting clear under Noel Fehily. All roads now appear to head towards Cheltenham and the rematch of last year’s Supreme and at this stage it looks hard to split them. As for the third home in last year’s Supreme, Buveur D’Air is set to make his second start over fences at Haydock tomorrow. That race is over the best part of 2m3f so it will be interesting to see how he goes up in trip. RSA The Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown today threw up a few clues with Jessica Harrington’s Our Duke getting the better of Coney Island and Disko in a close finish. The winner had made quite an impression when winning at Navan a few weeks ago and showed a fine attitude to see off his two rivals and land a first Grade 1. With Cheltenham in mind he will need to sharpen up his jumping, as he made the odd error on the way round but the RSA looks made for him and he is now a general 10/1 second favourite behind Bellshill, who won at Limerick on Boxing Day. The runner-up Coney Island didn’t lose much in defeat and could also head for the RSA, whilst the fourth home Martello Tower could be an interesting one for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase, although he may need softer ground to be seen to best effect. On this side of the Irish Sea, Might Bite has to come into consideration for the RSA as he would have no doubt run out a ready winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase but for falling at the final fence. He was well clear at the time and that mistake aside, he jumped pretty well. He also showed a tendency to jump to his left at times which suggests Cheltenham will suit and as long as he is none the worse for this fall, he looks a likely runner. Misc Races Mares Hurdle Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata has now won her last five starts following a convincing success in the Listed Irish Independent Hurdle at Limerick yesterday. She looks to be improving at a rapid rate and although her connections believe she will make a fine chaser next year, they also think she can pick up a big prize before the end of the season. She could now head straight to Cheltenham and whilst no target has been confirmed, this race looks the most likely unless she goes down the handicapping route. We also got a first look at Kotkikova yesterday who was a prolific winner in her native France and she shaped with some promise over 3m at Leopardstown. This was as far as she had raced over in her career to date and she looked as though it might have been a bit far for her in the closing stages. I would not be surprised to see her drop back in trip next time and the Mares’ Hurdle looks a sensible target for her. Cross-Country News filtered through this morning that last year’s runner-up and ante-post favourite Josie’s Orders will miss the race having suffered an injury. His stablemate Cantlow who won at Cheltenham in November is now the general 4/1 favourite with most firms ahead of the likes of Alechi Inois, Quantitativeeasing and Any Currency. Bumper The picture for the Champion Bumper looks as murky as always at the moment with most of those towards the head of the ante-post lists trained by Willie Mullins. He introduced his latest smart recruit at Leopardstown yesterday as Carter McKay made a winning debut under Patrick Mullins. A wide margin winner of an Irish point, he was subsequently bought for £165,000 by David Redvers and races in the colours of Pearl Bloodstock. He had to work pretty hard to get the job done on this occasion but I’m sure his connections will be keen to get him to the Festival and he is available at as big as 25/1 for the Champion Bumper. Bets CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) The first of two bets suggested this week is this four-year-old who made quite an impression a couple of weeks ago when winning at Navan. The form of that race has been boosted with the runner-up Joey Sasa having won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and I suspect that the winner could be creeping up the Willie Mullins pecking order. With the below-par run of Jenkins at the weekend, the race looks to have a much more open look to it and it has been pleasing to see this gelding attract support in recent days. Like most of the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers it is hard to know for sure which race they will run in but we have the security of No Runner No Bet in this race so I think he is worth a bet. He should be stepped up in grade before long but his trainer spoke fondly of him after his latest win and I suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet. NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) Despite the performance of Thistlecrack at Kempton on Boxing Day, I still have my reservations about his jumping, especially given the way that he tackled the open ditches. I therefore think it is worth looking elsewhere for an angle and in a race in which a lot of the contenders are known entities, the big improver in the race looks to be Native River, who has gone from strength to strength this term. I was really impressed with the way he drew clear of his rivals at Chepstow before the weight started to take its toll and he looks ready for a crack at Grade 1 company again. His jumping is a major asset as well as his stamina which bodes well for a Gold Cup horse and the potential absence of Coneygree could mean he is allowed to dictate from the front. I think it will take a good one to get past him on the day and at 9/1, I think he looks a good each-way bet, especially with so many doubts surrounding a number of his rivals. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway corky, BillyHills, arsenalfh and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 6 Gold Cup The man who seems to be holding all of the cards in the Gold Cup picture is Colin Tizzard who has the top two in the betting in the shape of Thistlecrack and Native River. On Sunday, he confirmed the plan was to take the favourite back to Cheltenham for the Cotswold Chase at the end of the month, whilst the stable’s Welsh National hero may now head straight to the Gold Cup. However Tizzard also raised the possibility of having two more runners in the Gold Cup, with a decision on Cue Card’s participation likely to hinge on how he fares when dropped back in trip in the Ascot Chase. The other possible for the race is the seven-year-old Alary who was placed in two Grade 1 chases in his native France in 2016 and is yet to race for the Tizzard team. He could make his debut for the yard in the Denman Chase at Newbury before having a go at the Gold Cup. Meanwhile, at this stage the Gigginstown representatives look likely to be Outlander and Valseur Lido with Eddie O’Leary admitting that last year’s winner Don Cossack faces a long road ahead of him as he bids to defend his crown. Don Poli who finished second to Outlander in the Lexus is more likely to head to Aintree for the Grand National, with connections unsure whether he has the requisite class to land a Gold Cup. Champion Hurdle The Champion Hurdle picture continues to be a little murky with the top two in the market yet to make their seasonal reappearances. Last week I mentioned that Rich Ricci had indicated that the Irish Champion Hurdle would be Faugheen’s starting point and it looks as though he will be joined in the race by runaway Ryanair Hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir. It also looks as though it is the likely starting point for Jezki, whose trainer Jessica Harrington admitted “he just wasn’t right” prior to the Christmas Hurdle and hence they have decided to give the nine-year-old a little more time. Despite returning over two miles however, the indications are that he will still go down the 3m route this term, so still has the World Hurdle on his agenda. Novice Hurdlers Supreme Having put up Cilaos Emery at 12/1 with SkyBet last week, it is always good to see that price disappear and he is now only 10/1 with that firm. Admittedly, he can still be backed at 12/1 with a couple of firms but at least we have the security of No Runner No Bet, especially as we know how late his trainer likes to leave it before finalising plans. Looking ahead to the weekend, we may get a couple of clues in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday with Paul Nicholls’ Capitaine the ante-post favourite to follow up his Ascot success. The list of potential rivals includes Colin Tizzard’s Finian’s Oscar who made a winning start at Hereford last month, last season’s Aintree bumper winner Kayf Grace and dual winner Charlemar. Perhaps one of these will point their name into consideration for the Supreme like last year’s winner Yorkhill did. Neptune Despite a possible drop back in trip on Saturday, Finian’s Oscar has attracted support for the Neptune in recent days with Sportingbet now the only firm to have the five-year-old as big as 20/1. This market has had something of a shake-up in recent days with Robin Roe, who was second favourite in most books prior to the weekend, having fallen in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury at the weekend. Dan Skelton’s five-year-old hadn’t been asked for much when coming down at the third last but unfortunately he was found to have chipped a bone in his knee and is likely to miss the remainder of the campaign. The winner of the race in question was Alan King’s Messire Des Obeaux who was never far from the leaders and having been sent into the lead at the second last, he stayed on strongly in the closing stages to win by two lengths. He seems to be improving all the time and is now likely to head to Cheltenham for the Neptune Trial on Trials Day, which will determine where he goes at the Festival. He is currently a general 12/1 shot for the Neptune and around 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett. Another winner on the Newbury card who may have thrown his hat into the ring for the Neptune is William Henry who made no mistake having been sent off at short odds. The seven-year-old returned from a lengthy absence to finish second at Cheltenham in December behind Pingshou and made light work of his rivals here. This was over 2m but Nicky Henderson indicated afterwards that he likely needs further and he was introduced at 33/1 with SkyBet and Coral. The following day at Cheltenham, Coo Star Sivola justified market support to land one of the trials for the Neptune. The five-year-old stayed on strongly up the hill but despite being given quotes of 33/1, his trainer suggested that the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ race was a more likely option for him. One final one to mention who could also head down the handicap route is Philip Hobbs’ No Comment who successfully carried a double penalty to success at Plumpton yesterday. The six-year-old already had a mark of 133 prior to his latest success and whilst the Neptune looks a big ask, it would be no surprise to see him take high rank in something like the Martin Pipe or the Coral Cup. Triumph Newbury’s Juvenile Hurdle on Saturday has thrown up some smart performers in recent years and this year’s renewal went the way of Warren Greatrex’s Final Choice who improved on his second on debut at Warwick to win impressively. The only error of note came at the third flight but despite looking as though he would be caught on the run to the last, he found plenty for pressure in the closing stages to win going away under Gavin Sheehan. The Triumph was mentioned as a long-term aim for him but the bookmakers weren’t overly impressed as he was introduced at 66/1 with a number of firms. Up at Musselburgh on Sunday, Project Bluebook got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles when getting the better of the Irish raider Warp Factor. John Quinn’s three-year-old reversed the form with Nietzche and looks to have taken well to this new discipline. I suspect that the Triumph may be flying a bit high but if he continues his improvement, then something like the Fred Winter could be on his agenda. Novice Chasers Arkle Warwick was the setting for Buveur D’Air’s second start over the larger obstacles and whilst he got the job done, I couldn’t help feeling a little disappointed afterwards. Although we didn’t see much of his debut at Haydock, the way he quickened up in the closing stages was taking and I was expecting something similar as he loomed alongside his main rival at the second last. His jumping on the whole was a little low and he also made a mistake at the penultimate fence when moving through to challenge. He had plenty in hand at the line but he will need to be better if he is to make the grade in this sphere and at present he remains a possible for the JLT as well as the Arkle. JLT The Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on Sunday looked likely to give us some Festival clues and it didn’t disappoint as Whisper got the better of Clan Des Obeaux following a prolonged duel from the home turn. Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old found plenty for pressure under Davy Russell and having now won his last two starts, he looks a live contender for both this race and the RSA in March. It must be said that Clan Des Obeaux may well have won but for a mistake at the second last which stopped the five-year-old’s momentum. To his credit, he didn’t give in and battled well up the hill but just couldn’t reel in the leader. That was only the seventh start in his life to date and with it still being early days with him, I could see him reversing the form if the pair met again. A little later in the afternoon, Colin Tizzard’s Robinsfirth got off the mark at Exeter, outstaying his rivals to win by five lengths at the line. A runner-up on his debut at Wincanton, he led for much of the way having been left in front at the first and came nicely clear on the run-in. His trainer nominated the Novices’ Handicap on Cheltenham Trials Day as his next target but should he win well there, then perhaps the JLT would come into the equation. Another who could be heading down the handicap route at the Festival is Baron Alco who won for the second time over fences at Plumpton yesterday. The drop back to 2m1f wasn’t ideal but Jamie Moore set out to make it a test on the six-year-old and he had enough to see of Solatentif in the closing stages. His task was made slightly easier with main market rival Laissez Dire falling at the ninth and in doing so suffered a fatal injury. Gary Moore immediately nominated the 2m4f Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on the Tuesday as Baron Alco’s Festival target and having run well behind Whisper there in December, he could have a good chance. Misc Races Champion Bumper Willie Mullins introduced two smart bumper horses at the weekend, the first of which was Redhotfillypeppers who went some way to repaying her £200,000 price tag when winning at Punchestown on Saturday. The five-year-old looks a chaser in the making and made under owner David Dunsdon to win going away at the line. It is worth bearing in mind that this was over 2m2f so this race may not be on the cards, but she looks a smart prospect nonetheless. One who is more likely to line up at Cheltenham is Next Destination who also made a winning start at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The five-year-old was always going well under Patrick Mullins and was just pushed out under hands and heels to win on this occasion. His trainer mentioned afterwards how straightforward he was and he is likely to target a winners’ bumper next. He was introduced at a general 20/1 for the Champion Bumper. At this stage, the best of the British contingent looks to be Western Ryder who won the Listed bumper at Ascot a few weeks ago. Warren Greatrex has now stated that he will now go straight to the Festival and if he can improve, he looks the most likely British winner at this stage. Bets I have no bets to advise this week. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway arsenalfh, corky and BillyHills 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Cracking read Beaker, I have a feeling we will have a lot of small fields this year so it will be very interesting to see who makes it to Cheltenham in March. I agree that Native River looks a good each way bet, at this point i cant see anything from Ireland to worry about. Good luck beaker1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 7 As we are now into 2017, I thought it might be good to give a brief update on each of the bets that I have put up so far. Our first bet Jezki is still generally available at 14/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle having not made it the racecourse yet this season. Having missed an engagement over Christmas, his trainer indicated that he would instead run in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month, but when the entries were released last week, he was not amongst them. I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t concerned about his wellbeing as I had expected him to be back by now but if Jessica Harrington can get him back, I still think he would have a big chance in the Stayers’ Hurdle come March. Kim Bailey’s Charbel can still be backed at 33/1 for the JLT and he hasn’t run since chasing home Altior in the Henry VIII Chase in December. His trainer reported last week that he ‘had been a little quiet’ although he also mentioned that a number of his string hadn’t been quite right over the Festive period. He is hoping to get another run into him before the Festival, although he would prefer to run him on a sounder surface. Cilaos Emery continues to attract support in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market and is now as short as 7/1 with Paddy Power and Stan James for the race. The Willie Mullins pecking order is unlikely to be clear until final declarations but he is clearly pleasing connections at home and we should see him step up in grade before too long. Should he switch races or miss the Festival entirely, at least we have the security of NRNB, but we look to be in a strong position at present, having backed him at 12/1. The final bet to update on is Native River in the Gold Cup, who having been advised at 9/1 a couple of weeks ago, is now as short as 5/1. This is largely due to the absence of Coneygree but once again, with this race likely to be his target, we look to be in a good position. We also see the first entries close for the Festival with the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup all having closed at noon today. The Champion Hurdle closes next Tuesday along with the Mares’ Hurdle and the Stayers’ Hurdle so it should start to make the Festival picture a little clearer. Champion Hurdle We still haven’t seen the first two in the market this season and Willie Mullins admitted that the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month, represented the last chance for Faugheen to have a run before the Cheltenham Festival. Whilst the nine-year-old is reportedly well at home, the trainer’s son Patrick suggested last week just hadn’t sparkled yet and as a result the team were giving him plenty of time before bringing him back. In terms of ability, I can see why he is at the head of the market but as time goes on without him running, surely his general 9/4 will inflate. Mullins also had news of last year’s winner Annie Power who could bypass the Irish Champion Hurdle and run in the same mare’s race that she ran in last year. She is available at 4/1 with a number of firms to retain her crown, which is much bigger than she has been in recent weeks and like her stablemate, she needs to prove all is well before long. One at a bigger price who has attracted support in recent days is Brain Power who looks set to return to Sandown for the Contenders Hurdle for his next assignment. That is likely to be his Champion Hurdle trial as he could take on Yanworth, who is also reported to be heading for that race. He doesn’t have much to find with Petit Mouchoir on their Punchestown run last year and with Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old having improved considerably this season, it is easy to see why he has been popular at bigger odds. In other news, it was also reported last week that The New One is set to step up in trip for his next run, with connections leaning towards having a go at the Stayers’ Hurdle. However, in the Racing Post today, whilst conceding that he will have an entry over the longer trip, Nigel Twiston-Davies said that the main target remained the Champion Hurdle. Personally, I would be having a go at the Stayers’ Hurdle as I can’t see him winning a Champion Hurdle now. Queen Mother Champion Chase Garde La Victoire was introduced at 33/1 with SkyBet for the Champion Chase following his handicap success at Sandown on Saturday. Philip Hobbs’ eight-year-old carried top weight as he saw off stablemate Bold Henry and following this handicap success, surely a return to Graded company beckons. Despite winning four of his seven starts over fences, he has shown a tendency to jump low, something which caught him out when falling in the JLT at the Festival last year. His jumping does look to have improved but on the bare form of his most recent race, he would have to improve a good deal to be a Champion Chase contender. Tom George could have a couple of runners in the race with Sir Valentino and God’s Own and the trainer has indicated that he plans to give the pair a break before bringing them back for Spring campaigns. Stayers’ Hurdle Harry Fry said last week that he believed that Ballyoptic represented the biggest threat to Unowhatimeanharry, despite falling at Ascot last time. “I think Ballyoptic should not be dismissed lightly at all. We beat him fair and square at Newbury, but he was running a very good race and would have been much closer to us if he had stayed up at the last at Ascot. Although Richard Johnson stopped short of saying he would have won, he clearly felt he was still in with a chance. He would be very interesting at the current prices.” Fry also confirmed that the ante-post favourite was fit and well and that he is on course to make his next start in the Cleeve Hurdle at the end of the month. Cole Harden who ran with some credit on New Year’s Day in the Relkeel Hurdle is also likely to target the Stayer’s Hurdle. The former winner’s trainer Warren Greatrex did mention that the 2015 winner could have a run over fences before then, as he feels the switch to the larger obstacles has sharpened the eight-year-old up. He was only beaten seven lengths at the line behind Agrapart on ground slower than ideal but I think the 33/1 still available is a fair reflection of his chances. Gold Cup The news was broken yesterday morning that Coneygree would not be given an entry in the Gold Cup when the entries closed at noon on Tuesday. He missed the King George with a niggly injury and it appears that setback has left connections with too little time to get the ten-year-old ready. Sara Bradstock said on Monday: “We’re not going to enter him in the Gold Cup. If everything changed and suddenly everything looked perfect, his x-rays and him, we could supplement him, but I’m not going to enter him because I’m 90 per cent certain he will not run. It’s all too quick. It’s only two months from now and he’s still only walking and we’re not going to be there in top form.” As a result, Thistlecrack was trimmed to as short as 8/11 with Boylesports, with the second in the market, Native River now no bigger than 13/2 for the Gold Cup. Meanwhile, another previous winner was reported to be progressing in his work with Eddie O’Leary reporting that it was “so far, so good” with Don Cossack. He also confirmed the intention to get a run into him in February before heading to Cheltenham, although that plan is far from set in stone. I mentioned last week that Colin Tizzard was likely to have a third runner in the Gold Cup and he gave a favourable mention to French import Alary when speaking to the press at the weekend. “Alary was very good this morning on the gallops,” said Tizzard. “I don’t know when he will run but he’s bloody good, I’ll tell you that.” Novice Hurdlers Supreme Supporters of ante-post favourite Moon Racer were assured of the horse’s wellbeing last week with David Pipe saying that he is likely to have his next outing at the end of this month or the beginning of next month. The Betfair Hurdle was under consideration but he would have needed another run Newbury in order to qualify. He is therefore likely to have one more run before Cheltenham, where we will get entries for both the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle. Saturday’s Tolworth winner Finian’s Oscar has also been trimmed into a general 10/1 for the Supreme following his win at the weekend. Colin Tizzard’s gelding ran out an impressive winner and whilst his trainer admitted afterwards that he wasn’t sure what was the five-year-old’s best trip, I suspect he will end up in the Neptune. One who could be set for the Supreme is Elgin who is likely to put his Cheltenham credentials on the line in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle next month. Alan King’s gelding made it two from two over hurdles on Boxing Day and it seems that how he runs back at Kempton is likely to determine whether he goes to Cheltenham or not. Another name to thrown their hat into the ring was Willie Mullins’ Chateau Conti who made a winning debut at Cork on Saturday. A winner of two French bumpers, the five-year-old came readily clear of his rivals to win by seven and a half lengths and is available at 16/1 with a number of firms. This coming weekend, it will be interesting to see who runs in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, with that race having been won by Vautour, Douvan and Min in the last three years. Willie Mullins is once again well represented this year with five of the entries including our Supreme Novices’ hope Cilaos Emery. Neptune I mentioned above that I felt Finian’s Oscar was more than likely to run in the Neptune and it seems that the market agrees as he is now 5/1 favourite with most firms following Saturday’s Tolworth victory. Yorkhill landed the Tolworth en route to the Neptune last year and having won a point-to-point over 3m, you would have to think that the Supreme may be on the sharp side for him. Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty is next best in the market and he stretched his unbeaten record over hurdles to four with victory in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle on Sunday. Racing over 2m4f, he was locked in a battle with Augusta Kate going to the last but with that rival falling, he raced clear in the closing stages to win by nine lengths. His trainer said afterwards that he would now head to the Albert Bartlett, for which he is 9/4 favourite. Willie Mullins’ faller Augusta Kate looked to have every chance before coming down and is now as short as 12/1 for the Neptune. It is hard to know whether she would have won but she would certainly have given Gordon Elliott’s horse a race and she would have to be considered a live contender for the race if heading down that route. Her stablemate Saturnas could also have this race on his agenda, with Willie Mullins suggesting that the Grade 1 winner could step up in trip for his next run. A winner of the Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas, he looks set to run in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle on February 12 over 2m2f. He is available at 20/1 for the Neptune, although he is as short as 14/1 with some firms. Looking ahead to this weekend, we could get some clues in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick, won last year by Willie Mullins’ Thomas Hobson. There are a number of interesting entrants including multiple winner Peregrine Run, Dan Skelton’s Get On The Yager and the progressive Geordie Des Champs. Albert Bartlett I have already discussed the merits of Death Duty and given the way he stayed on from the back of the last on Sunday, I have no doubt that the step up to three miles will show him in an even better light. He is now a general 9/4 shot but given the record of favourites in the race in recent years I wouldn’t be holding my breath just yet. One who could line-up against him is Dan Skelton’s Lakeside Castle who made a most impressive debut for the yard on Friday at Wetherby. The six-year-old cam readily clear of the well-fancied Westend Story to win by twenty-three lengths and it is quite possible that the step up to three miles with bring about further improvement. He was introduced at 20/1 with SkyBet and could develop into a smart novice. Triumph Alan King’s Coeur De Lion was pushed out to as big as 40/1 for the Supreme having been turned over at short odds at Sandown on Saturday. The four-year-old was conceding 6lb to all of his rivals but Tom Symonds’ Don Bersy travelled and jumped well throughout the race and just outstayed his rival in the closing stages. The fact that it took him three runs over hurdles to get off the mark suggests he isn’t above average and these two look more like Fred Winter candidates than Triumph horses. Whilst discussing a number of his string, Gordon Elliott gave a favourable mention to Mega Fortune who he believes will be suited by the way races are run at Cheltenham. He won impressively at Down Royal before running behind Bapaume and Landofhopeandglory on his next two starts and would look to have a good chance if going down the Fred Winter route. Kempton’s opening race on Saturday looks worth a watch with a number of interesting horses entered included Poker Play who was bought for £280,000 in December. He finished a length behind Charli Parcs on his hurdling debut before winning impressively next time and David Pipe looks to have a smart recruit on his hands. Alan King has several entered including Newbury winner Cosmeapolitan whilst Nicky Henderson could give a debut to French hurdle winner Divin Bere. Novice Chasers Arkle Nicky Henderson confirmed last night that despite having an entry for the Clarence House Chase at Ascot next weekend, ante-post Arkle favourite Altior was unlikely to take up that engagement. He could instead run in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, the same race which Sprinter Sacre won prior to landing the Arkle back in 2012. He also said that Buveur D’Air was likely to tackle the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown next, although he will be given an entry in the Champion Hurdle when the race closes next Tuesday. Henderson has been keen to try him over 2m4f and he is hoping it will tell him whether the horse is an Arkle horse or whether he should head down the JLT route. At the weekend, Henry De Bromhead’s Some Plan was trimmed into 20/1 for the Arkle having run out a ready winner at Naas on Sunday. The well-backed favourite American Tom looked to be struggling when falling at the fourth last but the winner jumped well out in front and wasn’t for passing on the run-in. He took a heavy fall at Cheltenham in November when seemingly holding every chance and now two from three over fences, he looks worth an entry in the race. Another who could line up in the Arkle is A Hare Breath who made a winning debut over fences at Bangor last month and is likely to target the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster at the end of the month. Ben Pauling did concede that he is unlikely to beat Altior or Min and a decision on the Festival will be made after his next run. RSA The RSA doesn’t look the easiest race to predict at present but we could get some clues at Warwick on Saturday as they host the Hampton Novices’ Chase. The race looks to have attracted some good entries with Champers On Ice and Mystical Knight probably the two most interesting runners. Harry Fry’s American and Evan Williams’ Pobbles Bay are two more lightly-raced chasers who look to have earned a step up in class and hopefully we get a stand out performer on Saturday who can stake their claim for the race. Misc Races Mares Hurdle Willie Mullins delivered news in recent days that Limini, the winner of last year’s Mares’ Novice Hurdle is likely to have one run before tackling the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Mullins reported the mare to be in great form, with the mare in fast work and progressing nicely. Paul Nicholls’ Lifeboat Mona also put her name forward for the race with victory at Sandown on Saturday. The seven-year-old has now won her last three starts over hurdles and she stayed on strongly in the closing stages to get the better of the useful Midnight Jazz. She seems to be getting better with every run and whilst she will need to improve a good deal to trouble the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag or Annie Power, if they line up, she looks to have earned her place in the race. One who won’t be lining up is Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata who will miss the rest of the season, having suffered a suspensory injury. The five-year-old has won her last five starts since finishing fourth in the Fred Winter last March and was as short as 10/1 for this race. Hopefully, the injury isn’t too serious and we will see her back in the autumn over fences. Champion Bumper West Coast Time entered the picture for the Champion Bumper when winning by nine and a half lengths at Cork on Saturday. Joseph O’Brien’s five-year-old is out of Refinement, who finished second in the Champion Bumper herself back in 2004 before going on to land two Grade 1 prizes during her career. This debutant was very impressive in quickening clear of some useful rivals including Drumconnor Lad who chased home Ballyward at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was introduced at 14/1 for the Champion Bumper on the back of this win although his trainer warned afterwards that he didn’t “know if Cheltenham would be the right thing for him” so we might have to watch this space. He is likely to have another run in the not too distant future before a plan for the Spring will be made. Bets WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) My bet this week is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Wholestone who looks on course to line up in the Albert Bartlett, with the River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster at the end of the month likely to be his final prep race. The six-year-old has already won three times over hurdles this season, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Peregrine Run over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November. Either side of that he has won over three miles at Prestbury Park, showing a strong resolve on both occasions to see off some useful rivals. He clearly stays well, handles the track and his form is working out well with Ami Desbois (who he beat last time) finishing third in the Challow Hurdle a couple of weeks ago. He looks to be improving all the time and with this race a confirmed target for him, I am surprised that he isn’t a little shorter in the market. Clearly Death Duty looks a standout at present but the recent record of favourites in the race suggests he is worth taking on and I think this improving six-year-old will have a big say in the race. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) Jimmy2shoes and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Awesome write ups Many Thanks beaker1 and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 8 I start this week’s post by reporting that Paddy Power are now No Runner No Bet (NRNB) on the four Championship races (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup). Bet365 followed suit yesterday but also included the Ryanair Chase so we now have something of a safety net in these races. Champion Hurdle Willie Mullins issued an upbeat bulletin on the wellbeing of Faugheen yesterday confirming that Cheltenham was very much on his agenda. “I’m pleased with him and he’s definitely on course for Cheltenham,” Mullins said on Sunday. “If all goes well hopefully he can run in the Irish Champion beforehand.” This news seems to have had an impact on the price of Annie Power who is now a general 5/1 shot with firms not offering NRNB. You would have to think the pair will be kept apart at the Festival with the Mares’ Hurdle an obvious alternative for the mare. As I reported a couple of weeks ago it seems that Brain Power and Yanworth are both on course to clash in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown on February 4. King said of the latter: “He’s a horse that’s taken time to mature and he’s never been beaten over two miles. I think Cheltenham will suit him better than Kempton, with a bit more emphasis on stamina. He’s very much in the mix and we’re lucky to have him.” King also said that Sceau Royal was back in work and was set to make his return in the Kingwell Hurdle next month. “He wasn’t quite right after Newcastle and he will go to the Kingwell. I think he could be the forgotten horse in the race (Champion Hurdle),” said King. He travelled really well in the Fighting Fifth but he didn’t quite see his race out. He’s definitely better than he showed that day.” The entries closed at noon today which should narrow down the field a little, although at this stage there doesn’t look likely to be any big surprises amongst them. Champion Chase The Queen Mother Champion Chase attracted 28 entries last week, headed by ante post favourite Douvan, who is one of five entries for Willie Mullins. Mullins has also entered Black Hercules, Champagne Fever, Un De Sceaux and Vroum Vroum Mag, although it is worth bearing in mind that most of these will have multiple entries at the Festival. One surprise entry was the Arkle favourite Altior although his trainer was keen to point out that he would only take up that engagement if Douvan were to miss the race. He is likely to be seen next in the Game Spirit, the race that Sprinter Sacre won on route to Arkle glory in 2012. He is 2/1 with a run with Betway for the Champion Chase. By stepping out of novice company at Newbury, Altior could face Sire De Grugy who Gary Moore was keen to give “a little more time”, having unseated at Kempton over Christmas. He could also be joined by his long absent stablemate Traffic Fluide who is back in work. The seven-year-old hasn’t run since finishing third in the Clarence House Chase last year and whilst he is likely to need his reappearance run, Moore is excited to have him back. Moore said: “Traffic Fluide is good and hopefully we will get him back for the Game Spirit. I have entered him for the Champion Chase and the Ryanair Chase. “He looks fantastic. He is a bit big and overweight, but I couldn’t be more pleased with him. He will need that first outing. We might find a nice clerk of the course that will let us take him somewhere to have a gallop like they do at Newmarket and Newbury.” The Clarence House Chase at Ascot this weekend could also have some effect on the Champion Chase market and there were eight horses left in at Monday’s entry stage. Gary Moore is double-handed with Ar Mad and Sire De Grugy (likely non-runner) and Willie Mullins sends over last year’s winner Un De Sceaux. Dodging Bullets, Eastlake, Royal Regatta, Special Tiara and Top Gamble are the other possible runners. Stayers’ Hurdle Having voiced my concerns regarding Jezki last week it was pleasing to see Jessica Harrington issue an upbeat bulletin on the horse’s condition last Wednesday. Harrington said: “It was disappointing that he had to miss Christmas with a niggly problem, but he did a piece of work last week and we are very happy with him now. He’s going to have his first start back in a winners’ of one race at Navan on Saturday week. The conditions of the race allow him to run and we are looking forward to getting him back. She said: “After Navan, he will probably run at Gowran Park in the Red Mills Hurdle on Saturday, February 18. All going well, he will then be aimed at the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.” Now clearly plenty of water has to go under the bridge before he makes it to Cheltenham but the Stayers’ Hurdle is clearly his target and he was trimmed to 12/1 with a couple of firms following this news. Lil Rockerfeller could also head to the Stayers’ Hurdle with trainer Neil King having given him a break following a disappointing run in the Relkeel Hurdle on New Year’s Day. He will now bid to defend his title in the National Spirit Hurdle at the end of February. King said: “Lil Rockerfeller was very disappointing on New Year’s Day, but he came home a very sick horse. He was not himself at all. He will have a break now and that was always the plan after New Year’s Day, so that is what he is currently doing. He is just out in the paddock enjoying himself. We will then try to go back to win the National Spirit again.” Gold Cup Don Cossack joined the list of horses to miss the Gold Cup with Gordon Elliott confirming on Wednesday that the ten-year-old had been retired. Quoted on his Betfair blog, Elliott said: “We found that he had a bit of heat in his leg yesterday and we’ve made the decision to call time. Gigginstown were then also dealt another blow as news emerged that Valseur Lido is likely to miss the rest of the season. The Henry de Bromhead-trained Grade 1 winner sustained an injury on the gallops and was still being assessed in the Fethard equine hospital on Friday morning. News of both of these absentees has strengthened the position of those at the head of the market with Thistlecrack as short as 8/11 in places and his stablemate Native River now a general 5/1 second favourite. Their stablemate Alary was also amongst the 39 horses entered last Tuesday and he could make his long awaited British debut in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock this weekend. His trainer mentioned a couple of weeks ago that he had been impressed with the French import and his former connections expect him to do well over here as well. Regis Schmidlin who partnered Alary to his two victories, stopped short of saying he would win a Gold Cup but, like Tizzard, has nothing but enthusiasm for the chestnut. “He’s capable of going on any ground and loves a good trip – the longer the better. Alary is a very smart jumper and even though the fences in England are not the same as in France I think Mr Tizzard will have given him enough time to adapt to the fences. I don’t have enough experience in England to say if he’s capable of winning the Gold Cup, but I know he’s out of the ordinary and very good at what he does.” Many Clouds could have another crack at the Gold Cup on route to his primary target, the Grand National. His owner Trevor Hemmings was quoted as saying, ‘There is a nice gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year so it is possible to run in both.’ He is obviously a fine jumper and whilst he may come up short, it looks a suitable target for him. Minella Rocco, who fell behind Many Clouds last time, also got an entry and is now likely to head to the Irish Gold Cup for his next assignment. Connections will then make a decision on whether he heads to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup or Aintree for the Grand National. O’Neill said: “He has come out of Aintree well and the physio has helped sort him out. He has now filled his frame and strengthened up. He is a great horse to have. The plan at the moment is to go for the Irish Gold Cup in the middle of February. We will then make a plan after that regarding Cheltenham and Aintree.” Ryanair Chase 48 entries were received for the Ryanair on Tuesday with Un De Sceaux and Cue Card both heading the market. The Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on Thursday could be worth watching for a few pointers with the likes of Black Hercules, Roi Des Francs, Sizing John and Sub Lieutenant all amongst the entries for the 2m4f contest. At this stage, Black Hercules would have to be considered a strong candidate for the Ryanair having won the JLT last year but despite shaping with more promise last time, he still needs to come forward again to mark him as a Ryanair candidate. The 2015 winner Uxizandre was also amongst the entries and his trainer said that he is likely to make his return on the 28th at either Doncaster or Cheltenham. King said: “We’re a bit limited about where to run him as he has to go left-handed.” Novice Hurdlers SUPREME When declarations came through for the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle on Friday, it was Crack Mome who was the Willie Mullins pick. That seemed to put paid to our Supreme hopes with Cilaos Emery however the favourite was turned over at short-odds and pushed out to a general 20/1 shot for the Supreme. The winner was Ted Walsh’s Any Second Now landed running at the final flight before staying on strongly to take advantage of a mistake by the front two. He looks a smart horse in his own right although he is likely to be seen to better effect over further. On this side of the Irish sea, High Bridge threw his hat into the mix with a ready victory at Catterick under a penalty. The six-year-old drew clear impressively from Top Tug to win by nine lengths at the line and his trainer Ben Pauling indicated the Supreme was the target in the aftermath. He finished sixth in the Champion Bumper last year and whilst he will need to take a good step forward in Grade 1 company, the 25/1 on offer with bet365 and SkyBet seems fair enough. Another impressive novice winner was Top Ville Ben who made all to win at Leicester last Thursday. Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old won his only Irish point in April before winning a Ludlow bumper in December. He jumped a little big at times here but soon stretched clear of his rivals up the straight and he looks ready for a step up in class. I’m not sure the Supreme is on the agenda and he might be one to wait for Aintree. Henderson also reported last week that Jenkins, who was well-touted for this race in the early part of the season had suffered a setback following his disappointing run at Kempton over Christmas. “It has come to light that he does have a problem which has come to light after his race,” Henderson told his Stan James blog. “It’s mainly bruising really but there is also some fluid around the tendon sheath which we drained yesterday and it has helped. It’s very frustrating though as he missed a couple of pieces of work and we need to get going with him again. We are struggling, and how much the bruising is to do with his Kempton defeat, I don’t know, and it’s a setback we could have done without but we’re nearly there. We have to catch up somewhere as he has got to have another run if we are going to even look at Cheltenham and he has to jump better so we’ll be doing plenty of work in that department too.” Neptune Alan King confirmed last night that the Neptune will “almost certainly” be the race for current second favourite Messire Des Obeaux. King plans to give the five-year-old one more run before the Festival and whilst suggesting that he could get an entry in the Supreme, he will not be stepped up in trip for the Albert Bartlett. “He’ll either go to Cheltenham on Trials Day or we’ll go to Huntingdon for the Sidney Banks. He’ll have an entry in the Supreme as well as the Neptune, but he won’t be entered in the three-miler (Albert Bartlett). I think the Neptune is probably his race.” Two potential dark horses for the Neptune could also head to Huntingdon next month with Benatar and Le Breuil both reported to have this race in mind. Gary Moore was particularly complimentary about the former, suggesting he was “as good a novice as I’ve had”. Ben Pauling also rates his horse highly: “I think a huge amount of him and he is a lovely individual. He has only had one run over hurdles and he could not have been any more impressive. The horse that finished second has won twice and the third recently won by more than 20 lengths, so the form for Sedgefield looks strong. I think he is probably one of the smartest novices I have. The plan was the Neptune, and if he has the experience, there is still time to go for it as long as he is ready for the Sidney Banks. If not, we will wait for Aintree.” Albert Bartlett Ben Pauling also has a leading candidate for the Albert Bartlett with Willoughby Court having put forward his credentials at Warwick on Saturday. The six-year-old took a big step forward from his course and distance success in December to make all and justify strong market support. His jumping got better as the race went on and he galloped his rivals into the ground, staying on strongly in the closing stages to win by eight lengths. That was over 2m5f in soft ground and although the Neptune is a possible option, he looks to be crying out for a step up to three miles on this showing. He looks a chaser in the making and the test that the Albert Bartlett poses is likely to be right up his street. Paul Nicholls’ Overland Flyer also earned quotes for the race when making a winning start to his hurdling career at Taunton last week. The six-year-old won two points in England before moving to the Paul Nicholls stable and he looks a classy prospect, winning by twenty two lengths at the line. Whether the Albert Bartlett will come too soon in his development it is hard to know but he is available at 20/1 with a number of firms. Triumph Nicky Henderson normally has a strong bunch of juveniles and he introduced a potentially smart recruit last week as Divin Bere made a winning start for his new connections. A winning hurdler in France, he found enough in the closing stages to get the better of Master Blueyes at Huntingdon. Noel Fehily noted how well the gelding jumped over these new obstacles and whilst he is as short as 16/1 for the Triumph (available at 33/1), he needs to improve a good deal to put himself in the reckoning. Alan King is another trainer synonymous with juvenile hurdlers and he will have been pleased with Fidux who made it two from two over hurdles at Kempton on Saturday. The Catterick winner got the better of expensive French recruit Poker Play, who was beaten a fair way out on his first start on these shores. The winner had plenty of experience on the flat in France and hr looks to have the right sort of profile for the Fred Winter at this stage. Mares Novice Willie Mullins took the inaugural running of this race last year with Limini and his strong squad for this year’s renewal looks likely to be headed by Airlie Beach. The seven-year-old won the Grade 1 Royal Bond before Christmas and her owner says that whilst the Supreme is still an option, she is likely to head down the mares’ novice hurdle route instead. She could be joined in the race by Gordon Elliott’s Barra who got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles at the weekend. She chased home a couple of smart performers in Invitation Only and Joey Sasa on her two previous starts and ran out a twelve length winner against her own sex. She could step up in grade in the coming weeks before further plans will be made, but she certainly looks to have an engine. Novice Chasers Arkle Henry De Bromhead’s Identity Thief was disappointing over Christmas but his trainer has reported the gelding to be back on track and he could make his reappearance in the Irish Arkle at the end of the month. He was fancied to give Min a race over Christmas but he made an early error and he was never in the race after that. “He seems really well,” said De Bromhead. “He actually jumped Sunday morning and schooled really well. He’s entered in the Arkle at Leopardstown, and we’ll see how he goes in the next few weeks.” Venetia Williams will have been pleased to see Zamdy Man get back to winning ways having bumped into Kilcrea Vale at Ludlow in December. The eight-year-old ran much better at Hereford last week and found plenty close home to see off the smart Gino Trail by one and a half lengths. At this stage the Arkle looks too big an ask for him but there should be a race for him at the Festival and now racing in the colours of JP McManus, he could go down the handicap route. JLT Another who could go down the handicap route is O O Seven who seemed to appreciate the drop back to 2m4f when winning at Huntingdon on Friday. Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old was conceding plenty of weight to his rivals but did just enough to win under Barry Geraghty. Having looked like a potential Graded performer in the early part of the season, he is now as big as 33/1 for the JLT, although his trainer suggested he was more likely to go down the handicap route going forward. RSA The Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick at the weekend promised to be a strong race and it threw up a good winner as Harry Fry’s American made just about all to land the spoils. The seven-year-old got into a good rhythm down the back straight and as some of his rivals began to toil he forged clear under Noel Fehily. He got a little tired late on, allowing his rivals to close but he had plenty in hand and won by four and a half lengths at the line. His trainer admitted on Monday that despite the horse being “fragile”, he would be entered in both the RSA and the National Hunt Chase. Fry said “He needs time between his races and if we go that route, and if ground conditions suit and he’s fit and well, then he’ll go straight there.” Back in second was Champers On Ice who was sent off favourite but his jumping came apart a little down the back and it cost him valuable ground. To his credit, he stuck to his task and ran all the way to the line to finish a good second. He will need to sharpen his jumping up going forward but given how well he was staying on in the closing stages here, I think the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Festival could be very suitable and he is a general 16/1 shot. Despite his below-par effort last time, Alpha Des Obeaux is still towards the head of many people’s list for the RSA and Mouse Morris revealed last week that the seven-year-old had burst blood vessels on the day. He said: “He’s fine and seems none the worse, thankfully.He’s never done it before, so we’re hoping it’s a one-off. It’s a shame as he was going well at home going into the race – he was flying – and on form he’d have been bang there, but that’s racing. We have the option of going to Naas or Leopardstown, or we could go straight to Cheltenham. We’ll talk to the owners and see which way they want to go. He’ll probably have an entry in the two-and-a-half (JLT Novices’ Chase), but the RSA is his race, I’d say.” Misc Races Pertemps The latest Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick on Saturday saw a progressive horse land the spoils with Debra Hamer’s Tobefair coming out on top. The seven-year-old stayed on well in the closing stages to get the better of Scotchtown and his trainer has indicated that he will now head to the Festival for the Final. The top six from each race get a place in the final, although there is obviously a ballot if more than the maximum field are declared. Of those that made the top six here, Tom Lacey’s Lough Derg Leader (5th) may be worth another chance on a sounder surface. Barney Dwan also caught the eye and would certainly have been involved at the finish but for unseating at the final flight. He is still lightly-raced and if he can get himself qualified for the Final, he could have a good chance, as he is another who should appreciate a sounder surface. Foxhunters It is still early days to be discussing the Foxhunters but we got one of the first pointers on Sunday with Black Thunder making a winning return to action at Kelso. Not seen since being pulled up in the Grand National, the ten-year-old looked likely to win by a wide margin but he tied up in the closing stages. He should improve physically for the run and this ground was probably as soft as he wants it. The runner-up Dolatulo was doing plenty of good work late on and may have finished closer had his rider not mistook the winning post. He won the Rowland Meyrick a couple of years ago and if he can get qualified, the Foxhunters should be on his agenda. Bets MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) The first of my two bets this week is Moon Racer who at this stage is the favourite for the Supreme, but the Champion Hurdle is also very much on his agenda. David Pipe reported a couple of weeks ago that he was likely to have one more run before the Festival before his target would be decided. Normally, it would be a no-brainer to run in the Supreme but with the eight-year-old having missed almost all of last season, this might be the best chance connections have to have a crack at the Champion Hurdle with him. They might also be tempted by the uncertainty around the participation of Faugheen and Annie Power and if those two don’t turn up, the race has a very open look to it. He is short on experience but his form to date is pretty strong and it is worth noting that he had Yanworth behind him when winning the Champion Bumper back in 2015. He is as big as 40/1 with some firms but the NRNB gives us security against him running in the Supreme or missing the Festival entirely so it makes sense to bet with bet365. I think if he lines up in this race he would have a leading chance and 20/1 is a good each-way price. KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) The second of my bets this week is this Nicky Henderson-trained mare who I think can challenge the Willie Mullins dominance in the mares division. The six-year-old won 11 of her 14 starts in her native France, including a Grade 1 chase in May 2015. She was bought at the beginning of this season by JP McManus and was far from disgraced on his first start for her new connections, when fifth to Vroum Vroum Mag over Christmas. She may just have needed the outing although most of her form in France was over 2m4f, so that could prove to be her optimum trip. She is entered this weekend at Ascot over just short of 3m and with that run under her belt, we are likely to get a better idea of what sort of ability she possesses. I fancy she will stake her claim for the mares’ hurdle on Saturday and so it seems sensible to back her now before her price contracts. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) corky and Jimmy2shoes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017 PART 9 Champion Hurdle Willie Mullins teased racing fans earlier this week by suggesting that a clash between Faugheen and Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle was not totally off the cards. Both received entries when the race closed last week and Mullins told the Irish Independent: “I don’t know, if you had two Champion Hurdle horses what would you do? If you finished second in the Champion Hurdle, would we be thinking to ourselves, we might run the two of them? If you’re lucky enough to have one Champion Hurdle horse, but then you have two, I don’t know. They are both probably getting on in age. If she comes back to herself, lots of people say Faugheen should run in the (Stayers’ Hurdle). I wonder coming out of Cheltenham if you finished second in the Champion Hurdle and won one of the other races with the other one, would you say, should we have – which would you rather?” We are due to see Faugheen make his long awaited return on Sunday and he will face a maximum of five rivals after the entries were released this afternoon. He is joined on the list of entries by three stablemates in the shape of Footpad, Ivan Grozny and Nichols Canyon as well as Petit Mouchoir and Ivanovich Gorbatov. There were a total of 28 horse entered for the Champion Hurdle last Tuesday and there weren’t any real surprises, although Yorkhill whose owner had suggested would get an entry, was not among the 28 names. Willie Mullins has no less than nine entries at this stage but one absentee is the 2015 runner-up Arctic Fire, who has been off the track since chasing home Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle last January. The New One was also among the entries and he showed a fine attitude to win the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock at the weekend. Despite making some jumping errors over the final couple of hurdles, the nine-year-old dug deep to land the spoils, getting the better of Evan Williams’ Clyne. This Grade 2 was some way short of the quality of a Champion Hurdle and whilst it is hard to see him winning come March, it seems this is his preferred option over a tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle. Back in third on Saturday was L’Ami Serge, who had been touted by a few people as an outside chance for the Champion Hurdle. However, having travelled smoothly into contention, he found very little when Daryl Jacob got stuck into him after the last and you have to wonder about his resolution. In fairness, he was found to have bled and lost a shoe on the way round but he still has a bit to prove in my book. Champion Chase The Clarence House Chase at Ascot fell victim to the cold weather last weekend and the BHA have done a fine job in rearranging the race for Cheltenham this weekend. Willie Mullins has already confirmed that Un De Sceaux will be making the journey over this weekend but one likely absentee from last week’s field is Ar Mad. His trainer Gary Moore said on Friday: “The BHA rang me this morning and asked if I would like the Clarence House to go to Cheltenham. I definitely wouldn’t want that. It’s not a fair track or a conventional racecourse. I suggested Sandown the following Saturday. If they run the race at Cheltenham I think they might get only two or three runners. I’d say it’s unlikely we’d be one of them.” In fact, there were just the seven entries when the race was reopened with Dodging Bullets, Eastlake, Royal Regatta, Special Tiara, Top Gamble, Un De Sceaux and Uxizandre the ones to be entered by connections. Stayers’ Hurdle We finally saw the return of our Stayers’ Hurdle hope Jezki this weekend as the nine-year-old defied an absence of 632 days to win at Navan on Saturday. He jumped with his usual efficiency and although he had to be shaken up after the last to go and win, it was a very pleasing return. His trainer Jessica Harrington said: “Barry said he took a blow going down the back and just blew up a bit after the second-last. He jumped super and you couldn’t ask for any more. We had him kind of ready at Christmas and then he had a setback. Every time you go you are worried that you haven’t done enough or too much or he hasn’t got his spark still. He was very settled there and was really, really good. I’ll have to talk with JP (McManus, owner) and Frank (Berry, owner’s racing manager) to see where we go next. Most likely he will need another run so he could go for the Red Mills (Gowran). I think he gets in there with no penalties. I think on soft ground we would be better going two miles and not bottoming him out. He could still do a job over two miles but we know he stays three, so we have options. As long as he’s sound in the morning that’s the main thing.” He is now a general 7/1 shot for the Stayers’ Hurdle and with that run under his belt, I think we can expect a good deal of improvement for his next run. His owner JP McManus also has the favourite for this race in the shape of Unowhatimeanharry who is likely to have his latest outing at Cheltenham this weekend in the Cleeve Hurdle. He could find life difficult as he has to carry a penalty for his Grade 1 win and he is likely to face some familiar rivals on Saturday. Un Temps Pour Tout and Ballyoptic who ran behind the favourite at Ascot could take him on again, whilst Paul Nicholls also saddles two interesting runners in Ptit Zig and Old Guard. Warren Greatrex has also entered Cole Harden and Shantou Bob this weekend and they could be two of the three strong team that the yard send to Cheltenham in March. They could also be joined by One Track Mind who hasn’t really taken to chasing this season. Greatrex said: “One Track Mind will stay hurdling and will go for the Rendlesham at Haydock on February 18. I spoke to the owners recently and we’re not going to gain anything by going novice chasing now and it means next season we can start off afresh.” He was a Grade 1 winner as a novice last term and is probably the most interesting of the three. Gold Cup Hopes were high for French import Alary on Saturday as he attempted to carry top weight to victory in the Peter Marsh Chase but following a market drift in the morning, he was pulled up before the third last. In the early part of the race he seemed to be going well enough but he lost his position just after halfway and didn’t have much left as they turned for home. However, his trainer Colin Tizzard said on Monday that the seven-year-old was suffering from an infection, having scoped him on Sunday. With Alary failing to fire it was Bristol De Mai who put his name forward as a potential Gold Cup horse with a most convincing display under Daryl Jacob. He jumped really well all the way round and coasted clear of his rivals in testing ground to win with plenty in hand at the line. He emphatically reversed the form with Otago Trail from Newcastle and his trainer nominated the Gold Cup as his target afterwards. I still have my doubts about whether he is as effective on a sound surface but whilst he would need to improve again to trouble the likes of Thistlecrack and Native River, he looks to have earned his place in the line-up. Ryanair Sizing John was cut for the Ryanair at the end of last week as he landed the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles. The seven-year-old has largely got used to the sight of the back of Douvan in the last two seasons but he seemed to relish the step up to 2m4f as he got the better of John Durkan third Sub Lieutenant. The passing of the last fence may just have worked in the winner’s favour as he had a bit more toe in the closing stages and he is as short as 8/1 for the Ryanair. However, I wouldn’t be too discouraged by the run of Sub Lieutenant who once again jumped well in the hands of David Mullins. If they had jumped the last, it is quite possible that the winning margin would have been less and he should also be suited by a sounder surface come the Spring. His owners would clearly like to win the Ryanair and I think the race would suit him. The disappointment of the race was Black Hercules who once again ran very lethargically. It was a bit of a strange race with Smashing going off out in front but Willie Mullins’ horse had to work hard to get to the front group and had little left in the closing stages. Clearly something is amiss with him as he is nothing like the horse we saw last year but he is worth steering clear of for the time being. Novice Hurdlers Supreme Nicky Henderson often has a good string of novice hurdlers and he introduced a potentially smart performer in Beyond Conceit at Newbury last week. The eight-year-old was making up for lost time, having been absent since July 2013 but he couldn’t have been more impressive on his hurdling bow. He cruised into the lead on the bridle at the second last and despite an error at the final flight, he stretched clear in the closing stages to win with ten lengths to spare at the line. His trainer immediately said that he would get an entry in the Supreme and as long as he can stay sound, he looks to have a bright future in his new discipline. He is a general 25/1 shot, although he is available at as big as 33/1. Closer to the head of the market is Harry Fry’s Neon Wolf who justified strong market support to land the Grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock in fine style. Sent off the 4/5 market leader, Noel Fehily allowed the six-year-old to track the leaders early on before sending him into the lead at the third last. The smart Elgin tried to challenge him but he was brushed aside with the minimum of fuss and he stayed on strongly to win by nine lengths at the line. He is a general 12/1 shot for the Supreme now although his trainer issued a word of warning as regards Cheltenham last night. “Noel hinted it at the weekend but Cheltenham won’t be the be-all and end-all for him this season. Having said that, after a performance like that at Haydock, how can we not be considering it? Especially if it happened to come up soft at the Festival. We’re looking at all the options open to him and by that obviously I mean the Sky Bet Supreme, and obviously the Neptune could be a bit more realistic if we did turn up at the Festival. It’s not necessarily all about what he does over hurdles this season and if the ground wasn’t going to be on the slow side then we’d probably look to skip it and maybe look to going to Punchestown.” Neptune The Classic Novices’ Hurdle on Saturday at Cheltenham has the potential to throw up some Cheltenham clues with a number of high-class entries. Nicky Henderson has two entries including the wide-margin Chepstow winner Constantine Bay and Paul Nicholls also saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Ascot winner Topofthegame. There are a host of others worthy of note including Tom Lacey’s Kimberlite Candy and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Wholestone, although both of those are also entered at Doncaster on the same day. Alan King, who has won three of the last five renewals has two entries in Keep In Line and Laser Light. One horse who we won’t be seeing lining up in this race at the Festival is Blow By Blow who will remain in bumpers this season before going hurdling in the autumn. Having suffered a chip in his knee, he has only recently returned to the care of Gordon Elliott and connections feel it is a little late to be going hurdling now. He has plenty of ability, being the only horse to beat Moon Racer in public and I’m sure he will be discussed at length in my next year’s column. Triumph The leading protagonists for the Triumph on this side of the Irish Sea are out this weekend with the eleven entries for Cheltenham’s opener on Saturday including the JP McManus-owned Charli Parcs and Defi Du Seuil. It is unlikely that both will line up but it would be interesting to see how the former will act on this course. Alan King has a couple of nice entries in Fidux and Rainbow Dreamer and Gary Moore could be represented by Early Du Lemo, who won on his hurdling debut in France in November and has subsequently been purchased to race in the colours of Ashley Head. On his French, he would probably appreciate the ground on the testing side although it is still early days, so perhaps he will handle quicker ground. Nick Williams often has a smart group of juvenile hurdlers and he has had a couple of winners in the last week, notably Flying Tiger who won by a wide margin at Newbury last Wednesday. The gelding had run behind Evening Hush on his British debut in November but he took a big step forward here, wearing earplugs for the first time. He wasn’t as keen as he had been on his previous starts and that helped his finishing burst as he pulled well clear under Lizzie Kelly. He contested a Grade 1 in France in November and it looks as though the Triumph and the Fred Winter are both on his radar for the Spring. He could be joined in one of those races by stablemate Night Of Sin who got off the mark at the third attempt at Bangor on Monday. The gelding didn’t seem to enjoy the hood being fitted last time and he made all on this occasion under Lizzie Kelly. He is a half-brother to Fox Norton and depending on what the handicapper does to him, I think the Fred Winter is likely to be his target. Another who I thought was worth mentioning was Project Bluebook who made it two from three over hurdles at Musselburgh last Friday. John Quinn’s four-year-old really seems to be getting the hang of hurdling and he had no trouble seeing off more experienced rivals on this occasion. He travels well in his races which makes you think a race like the Fred Winter would suit him and on the back of this effort, I think he comes right into the mix. Novice Chasers JLT The ante-post favourite Yorkhill maintained his unbeaten record over fences at Leopardstown on Sunday and received mixed reviews. To be honest, I wasn’t personally too impressed with the way he jumped on the way round and I’m also not sure how much Ruby had underneath him in the closing stages. It was also interesting to read Willie Mullins’ comments about him potentially going back over hurdles next season. “He jumped to the left on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse and did so again on Sunday,” said Mullins. “We’ll see how things go but I would have absolutely no problem going back over hurdles with him next season, if we’re not convinced about his jumping over fences. Leaving Cheltenham in March after he won the Neptune, I thought he had what it takes to be a Champion Hurdle contender this year. We thought long and hard about going chasing with him instead, so the next few months should be very informative.” In terms of natural ability, I have little doubt that he will probably be the best horse lining up in the JLT but he has yet to convince me with his jumping and personally I think the 7/4 on offer at the moment is plenty short enough. Malcolm Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently also maintained his unbeaten record over the larger obstacles when getting the better of Politologue at Haydock on Saturday. The six-year-old travelled smoothly throughout under Brian Hughes and found plenty once shaken up to get the better of his more fancied rival. He earned quotes for both the JLT and the RSA on the back of this but his trainer indicated afterwards that ground conditions were likely to guide him at this stage of his career. “Waiting Patiently is still improving and I´d like to think he´s a bit better than a handicapper. He´ll get entries for the JLT and the Arkle as I´m not sure if 2m is his better trip, but he wouldn´t go to Cheltenham unless it was soft.” Jefferson said. RSA Charlie Longsdon raised the possibility of Our Kaempfer, currently favourite for the Ultima Handicap Chase on the first day of the meeting, running in one of the Graded chases at the Festival. He is likely to run in something like the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot and how he gets on there is likely to determine where he will head at the Festival. Longsdon said: “I think we’ll keep our options open for now, but we might look at something like the Reynoldstown and if he ran well there you’d have to look at the RSA or the four-miler. At the same time, we’ll have to look at handicaps too and the Ultima Business Solutions is an obvious race to consider, but he’s gone up to 148 for winning last time which isn’t far off the mark of last year’s RSA winner. Last year we ran in the Pertemps Final. We hoped we would be well-handicapped off 140 and we were, but he was in second-last place at the top of the hill – which is the way you have to ride him – and passing 20-odd horses in four furlongs when they are careering downhill to try and win a race at Cheltenham Festival is a hard task for any horse. He was only beaten two and a half lengths, so he ran a good race then. You only get one season of being a novice, and you might just find there are only 12 runners in the RSA, for example, rather than 24 in the handicaps and this might just be his chance.” Misc Races Cross Country The Cross Country race which was rearranged from Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November takes place this weekend and has attracted a strong entry. A total of fifteen horses were entered and perhaps the most interesting name was Jonjo O’Neill’s More Of That who has been given the option of this race following a couple of disappointing efforts in regulation races. The master of the banks Enda Bolger is represented by Cantlow and Auvergnat, whilst there are two French-trained horses in the shape of Unbrin De L’Isle and Urgent De Gregaine who are both trained by Emmanuel Clayeux. Bumper Barry Connell earned a quick return on his investment as Bakmaj got off the mark at the second attempt at Leopardstown on Sunday. The five-year-old had run well behind the well-touted Carter McKay over Christmas and he came readily clear on this occasion to justify strong market support. It is hard to weigh up just how strong the form is but he looked to have stepped forward on his debut outing and quotes of 33/1 seem fair enough at this stage. On this side of the Irish Sea, Perfect Harmony earned quotes of 33/1 when getting up late to win at Newbury last Wednesday. He really saw the trip out well under Ian Popham and his trainer immediately suggested the Champion Bumper as a target. He would have probably won his Irish point had he got over the last so looks a nice prospect although the Bumper at the Festival is likely to be a different kettle of fish to his last race. Foxhunters I thought it best to also mention the victory of Foxrock in a hunter chase last week which saw him get the better of On His Own and First Lieutenant. The reason I wanted to flag him was to warn that he is not eligible for the Foxhunters’ at the Cheltenham Festival and although most bookmakers don’t have him on their lists for the race, there are a couple who still do. For the record, he is likely to run in another hunter chase before long and he will then get entries in the Grand National and the Irish Grand National in the Spring. Bets SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) My only bet this week is this eight-year-old in the Ryanair Chase, who as I mentioned above lost very little defeat at Thurles last week. Henry De Bromhead’s eight-year-old is a fine jumper of a fence and he looks to have turned a corner since joining the De Bromhead team at the beginning of the season. He won well on quickish ground in the Autumn and ran a fine race in the John Durkan Chase, where he was only beaten two and a half lengths by the winner Djakadam. I don’t think things went entirely his way at Thurles last week and I am looking forward to seeing him back on a sounder surface in the Spring. The Ryanair looks a perfect fit for him and with his connections owning Ryanair as well, they would clearly be keen to win the race. This looks an obvious target for him and with bet365 offering NRNB, I think he looks worth an each-way bet. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365 corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 10 To start with Betfred and Totesport are now NRNB for the four Championship races at the Festival. We should also get a clearer picture of the novice hurdles in the next couple of days as the entries for the Supreme, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and Triumph all closed at noon today. Champion Hurdle The market for the Champion Hurdle took a big turn last week as following reports that Willie Mullins hadn’t ruled out the possibility of Annie Power and Faugheen taking each other on, the former was ruled out of the race having suffered an injury. It is reported to be on the opposite leg to the one which has caused her problems in the past and whilst she could be back for Punchestown, the Cheltenham Festival will come too soon for her. Fast forward a couple of days and her stablemate Faugheen was ruled out of his return to action in the Irish Champion Hurdle with a pulled muscle in his hind quarters. It isn’t a serious issue and Willie Mullins said that he was “a lot better” on Monday and he was withdrawn as a precaution. It now means that he is likely to head straight to Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle, for which he is now as big as 11/4. In his absence, Petit Mouchoir landed a second successive Grade 1, getting the better of Footpad. The six-year-old was once again ridden towards the head of affairs and kicked clear of his rivals on the turn for home. He looked to be hanging on in the closing stages but was always doing enough to win with a length to spare. He is now a general 4/1 shot for the Champion and it appears all roads now lead to Cheltenham for him. This weekend, we are likely to get more clues with leading fancies Yanworth and Brain Power likely to go head to head in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday. Barry Geraghty has said that Yanworth will need to improve his jumping in order to go close in a Champion Hurdle and this should give us another indication of where he stands in the pecking order. It is also worth mentioning at this stage that the market has become a little distorted in recent days with Altior introduced at 2/1 with one bookmaker, although Nicky Henderson has said that there is “no chance” of him lining up there. His stablemate Buveur D’Air will be aimed at the race though as his novice chasing campaign has been put on hold. Henderson said this afternoon “It has been decided that Buveur D’Air will not run in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown on Saturday and will instead revert to hurdles with a crack at the Stan James Champion Hurdle the main objective. Faugheen is still the best hurdler in Britain and Ireland and could still be tough to beat but it was a decision we had to make now and Barry Geraghty came and schooled him this morning and he jumped beautifully. He is a very good hurdler and has close form with Petit Mouchoir so it made sense to go back over timber. The Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso in two weeks’ time is where he will next run.” He is now a general 7/1 for the Champion Hurdle. However, I think it is becoming increasingly likely that Yorkhill could line up in the Champion Hurdle, especially given how he hasn’t really taken to fences. He got the better of Yanworth at last year’s Festival and if he did line up then he would be towards the head of the market. He does have to be supplemented but with Annie Power missing out and the uncertainty around Faugheen, it must be coming under consideration. Champion Chase Un De Sceaux recorded a second Grade 1 success of the season with victory in the re-arranged Clarence House Chase at Ascot. The rain that Cheltenham got on the morning of racing made conditions perfect for Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old and he ran out a ready winner in the hands of Ruby Walsh. He is now a general 8/1 shot for the Champion Chase although he is as big as 14/1 in places but I would imagine that unless the ground is soft at the Festival, he may head to the Ryanair Chase instead. One who is more likely to line up against Douvan is Fox Norton whose trainer Colin Tizzard confirmed was on course to make his return to action in the Game Spirit Chase. “He’s working brilliantly and will go for the Game Spirit,” Tizzard said. “He stood in his box for three weeks after Cheltenham and was and then on the walker. He started back around Christmas and has been out out twice a day for five days a week to catch up. He doesn’t want to be going to Newbury half-fit and he’s ready – he worked beautifully on Thursday.” The favourite for this race Douvan is likely to be in action this weekend in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown on Sunday. Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old will face a maximum of five rivals with Clarcam, Realt Mor, Smashing, Velvet Maker and Draycott Place also entered up. Stayers Hurdle Unowhatimeanharry cemented his place at the head of the market with another gutsy display at the weekend to land the Cleeve Hurdle. Harry Fry’s nine-year-old was conceding 4lb to a number of his rivals but it made little difference as Barry Geraghty always looked to be confident on the favourite. He stayed on well to the line to win by one and three-quarter lengths and come March, it is hard to see him not going off favourite. Back in second was the resurgent Cole Harden who turned in his best effort for some time in the tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination which he wore in the Relkeel Hurdle. Here he adopted his familiar front-running position but kept going when headed and was a good second at the line. This was a good effort on ground which would have been softer than ideal and connections are hopeful that he can make his presence felt in the Stayers Hurdle. He has been cut to a general 14/1 for Thursday’s feature. Over in Ireland, Shaneshill outlined his credentials for the Stayers Hurdle with victory in the Galmoy Hurdle over 3m at Gowran. The eight-year-old took a crashing fall at Leopardstown over Christmas when very much in contention but he made amends here as he got the better of Noel Meade’s Snow Falcon. His trainer Willie Mullins believes he is improving and with better ground at the Festival likely to suit, it is hard to see him not being thereabouts. Gold Cup Undoubtedly the biggest shock of the weekend was Thistlecrack getting turned over at Cheltenham in what was a fantastic battle up the hill. The winner Many Clouds gave everything he had to get the better of his rival and was a credit to connections. In terms of the runner-up, I personally felt he was probably not quite himself on the day and the ground was just sticky enough to make it hard work for him. Half way up the run-in I expected to go away but the winner fought back and he was collared close home. Not surprisingly he was pushed out in the Gold Cup market to around 7/4 but I think on better ground at the Festival, he still remains the one they all have to beat. Not surprisingly, the bookmakers also reacted by cutting the prices of those outside the front two with Djakadam (6/1), Cue Card (8/1) and Outlander (12/1) all contracting in the market. Bristol De Mai is available at a slightly bigger price (general 14/1) and is likely to complete his Gold Cup preparations in the Denman Chase at Newbury next Saturday. Anthony Bromley, racing manager for his owners, said: “There’s been lots of talk since Haydock, but Isaac, Simon and myself were all at Nigel’s on Thursday and the decision was made to go to the Denman. We hope to use that as a springboard into the Gold Cup. If we’d gone to Ascot it would have meant going back in trip, which we weren’t keen to do, and Newbury also gives us an extra week to freshen him up for the Festival.” Another horse who has been given the go ahead for the Gold Cup is Champagne West who was impressive in winning the Thyestes Chase at Gowran last Thursday. The nine-year-old seems to have turned a corner since the New Year and his wide-margin success under a big weight entitles him to go for something like the Gold Cup. He still has the tendency to make a bad jumping error which would cause some worry at Cheltenham but he can be backed at 25/1 with a couple of firms. Ryanair Whilst this is likely to be the main Festival target for Un De Sceaux, the horse that finished second on Saturday must also have this race on his agenda following a very encouraging reappearance. Uxizandre had not been seen on a racecourse since winning the Ryanair in 2015 and having been keen early on Saturday, it looked as though he would drop away at halfway. However, he found a second wind under Barry Geraghty and stayed on all the way to the line to finish second behind his race-fit rival. There is reason to think he could get closer to Un De Sceaux come the Festival as the visor he wore in 2015 was absent here and the better ground could also play into his favour. Obviously a lot will depend on how he comes out of his return to action but there was plenty to like about the way he ran at the weekend. Novice Hurdlers Supreme The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle now has a new favourite as Melon, who was touted as a smart horse prior to his hurdling debut, made a winning start for Willie Mullins at Leopardstown on Sunday. A winner on the flat in France, he jumped well on the whole and saw off his rivals with the minimum of fuss under Ruby Walsh. The way he accelerated between the final two hurdles to put the race to bed was impressive and he looked to have plenty left in the tank as it took his rider a while to pull him up. The form of the race isn’t great and whilst I can see why he has been popular, I think 4/1 is short enough and I certainly wouldn’t have him ahead of Moon Racer in the market. Given the number of juvenile hurdlers racing in the colours of JP McManus, it has long been mooted that one of them could run in the Supreme like Binocular did when getting beat by Captain Ceebee in 2008. It was therefore interesting to see Nicky Henderson’s Charli Parcs attract support for the Supreme yesterday morning and he is now a general 8/1 third favourite with most firms. I was impressed with the way he won at Kempton over Christmas and expect him to go close in whichever Festival race he lines up in if he handles Cheltenham as well as he did Kempton. The north could be represented in the race by Mount Mews who bounced back from a narrow reverse at Wetherby to win for the second time over hurdles at Doncaster. Having won with plenty in hand last week, Malcolm Jefferson’s assistant Ruth confirmed that he would be entered at Cheltenham, although she raised the possibility of missing the Festival completely. “He’s in good form and he’ll be entered in the Supreme and the Neptune. On form he was entitled to do what he did the other day, to be fair. He’s a horse that only does as much as he has to do. If he is going to go to Cheltenham I think he’d need another run. There are no immediate plans and I’d imagine it will be the end of February or early March before he runs again. There’s a race at Kelso at the start of March, which would obviously be close to Cheltenham, but there’s always Aintree.” He is a general 33/1 shot for the Supreme. Neptune Neptune favourite Finian’s Oscar is likely to have a prep run for the Festival at Exeter in the coming weeks according to trainer Colin Tizzard. That is likely to be over 2m and whilst he raised the possibility of running in the Supreme, he indicated that would only be if the ground was soft. Tizzard said: “I think he will run again before Cheltenham. There is a nice race at Exeter in a fortnight. He only needs one more run and that is a few weeks before the Festival. I would assume he is more like a two-and-a-half-miler. He doesn’t seem to be stopping in his races and he is not a Flat-bred horse. I expect we will leave our options open, as if it came up like a bog (at the Festival) he is not slow either.” Another horse who may be on target for the Neptune is Paul Nicholls’ Brio Conti who showed plenty of ability when getting the better of Wenyerreadyfreddie at Doncaster last Friday. He pulled well clear of that rival in the closing stages, that despite being keen in the early part of the race and his part-owner John Hales indicated afterwards that the Festival was likely to be on his agenda. Albert Bartlett My ante-post selection Wholestone did his chances of winning the Albert Bartlett no harm on Saturday as he landed the Neptune trial at Cheltenham. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding was always going well under Daryl Jacob and despite missing the final hurdle out, he stayed on strongly to draw nicely clear of the runner-up William Henry. Despite that being over 2m4f, his trainer has already confirmed that the Albert Bartlett will be the plan something which was backed up by Anthony Bromley today. “Nigel’s done a great job with him and while he held an entry at Doncaster over three miles, Nigel was very keen to stay at Cheltenham with him, and once again he was proved correct. The idea now is to go for the Albert Bartlett. He’s won over three miles twice and has won at Cheltenham three times so we’re happy to keep going there. He won’t run again beforehand and his form ties in very closely with West Approach, who finished third in the Cleeve. Those two look to be the two leading British contenders for the Albert Bartlett.” He is now a general 8/1 shot for the Albert Bartlett. Bromley gave a nod to West Approach there who ran a career-best to finish third behind Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle. That was a fine effort against more experienced rivals and he has to be respected dropping back into novice company. His trainer confirmed afterwards that the Albert Bartlett was the plan and that he fancied him to go close. There was also an Albert Bartlett trial up at Doncaster on Saturday in the shape of the River Don Novices’ Hurdle which went the way of Constantine Bay, who got the better of No Hassle Hoff in a close finish. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old found just enough to retain his unbeaten record but connections believe that he prefers a softer surface and so the Festival may not be on the agenda for him. The final one to mention is Willie Mullins’ Let’s Dance who stretched her winning sequence to four at Leopardstown on Sunday. The five-year-old seems to have enjoyed being stepped up in trip to 2m4f and her owner Rich Ricci seemed to suggest that he was leaning towards the Albert Bartlett as her Festival target. She could have a number of other entries but this looks her most likely at this stage, and she is generally available at 12/1. Triumph With Charli Parcs withdrawn on account of the ground, it was left to Defi Du Seuil to contest the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham on Saturday and as expected he made no mistake under Barry Geraghty. The 1/5F once again won with plenty in hand but the real questions are likely to come when he races on a sounder surface in the Spring. I think he is rightly the favourite at this stage for the Triumph but I suspect that something is likely to come out of the pack and give him a race. Tom Symonds’ Don Bersy certainly looks an improving juvenile having won his last two starts but following his latest success at Warwick, his trainer appeared to pour cold water on the idea of going to the Festival. He is likely to step up in grade for his next outing but his trainer is worried about how he might handle the furore of the Festival. He said: “Sandown was busy enough for him last time and we might keep him away from the big occasion this year. The plan was always the Victor Ludorum at Haydock and I´d say that´s still where he´ll go next.” Fred Winter Whilst not necessarily Triumph horses, there were a couple of juveniles who ran nice races last week including Percy Street who got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles at Taunton last week. The four-year-old was an expensive purchase from the flat and was fancied to run well on his debut at Newbury but was let down by his jumping. That was much better on this occasion as he got the better of his elder rivals. He still has time to make up into a Triumph horse but he certainly could have the Fred Winter on his agenda. Brian Ellison’s Nietzsche is another who could have the Fred Winter as his target having won for the third time over hurdles at Catterick last week. He was keen up in trip but came through to win a shade cosily and a faster run race over two miles is likely to suit him. He hasn’t gone up too much for his latest win and if he gets soft ground, then he would have to come into consideration. His old rival Project Bluebook could have a few races at Cheltenham on his agenda, although a 14lb rise for his latest success means he would have quite a big weight in the Fred Winter. It was revealed today that JP McManus has purchased the four-year-old and he has a number of entries this weekend up at Musselburgh. He continues to improve and if were to win again, then the Triumph might end up being his race. Novice Chasers Arkle A total of 33 entries were received for the Arkle last week with Altior remaining the favourite at this stage. In fact he shortened up in a couple of places following news that Min had also been given an entry in the JLT, although I understand that was just to keep options open for Willie Mullins. There was a Grade 1 trial in Ireland over the weekend but with Min having suffered a bang on the knee, he missed that engagement, leaving a field of four to take part. As it turned out Some Plan was the only one of the quartet to get round with Identity Thief and Bleu Et Rouge both departing early before Royal Caviar fell at the final fence. The winner will now head to the Arkle for which he is available at 25/1 but it is hard to see him troubling the likes of Altior on their best form. The Lightning Novices’ Chase saw something of a surprise as the improving Forest Bihan get the better of Malcolm Jefferson’s Cloudy Dream. Brian Ellison’s six-year-old has continued to improve over fences and overcame a blunder at the third last to run on in the closing stages and win a shade cosily at the line. His only defeat to date has come at the hands of Waiting Patiently at Newcastle and his trainer has confirmed him to as having the Arkle on his agenda. Saturday’s runner-up was the subject of Pricewise last night with better ground and a faster run race likely to bring out more from Cloudy Dream. I thought his run on Saturday was a little disappointing even taking into account that he was conceding weight to the winner and I would be more interested in him were he to go down the handicap route at the Festival. JLT Cloudy Dream’s stablemate Waiting Patiently was amongst the 66 entries for the JLT although he has also been given an entry in the Arkle. Discussing the Festival, Malcolm Jefferson’s daughter Ruth said: “He’s come out of Haydock well and has entries in the Arkle and the JLT. We’re still over six weeks away, so I don’t think there’s any point committing at this stage. He could end up in neither. We’ll see what the ground is like. It’s been fairly dry up until now and I think the weather sometimes evens itself out. Who knows, we could end up with a wet Cheltenham this year. If he is going to go to Cheltenham, I think he’ll go straight there.” This weekend’s Scilly Isles Chase could give us a few pointers with the 12 entries featuring a number of interesting performers. Le Prezien, Top Notch and Clan Des Obeaux are just four of the entries and have their opportunity to stake a claim for the JLT. Kim Bailey discussed my other selection Charbel on attheraces last night and said that he could make his return at the end of the month at either Market Rasen or Kempton. A decision will then be made on where he goes but he did indicate that he has entries in the Arkle and the JLT but also has the option of running in a handicap. RSA A total of 55 entries were received for the RSA last week and the major absentee from the list was Jessica Harrington’s Our Duke who was second favourite in most places. Explaining his surprise omission Harrington said: “The lads who own him told me they would rather win the 2018 Gold Cup than the 2017 RSA and I can see where they are coming from. It is quite a sensible decision on their part. He just does not have enough experience at the moment and the RSA can be quite a gruelling race.” Royal Vacation also appeared to throw his hat into the ring with an impressive display at Cheltenham on Saturday. He had looked to have been dealt a tough hand having gone up 12lb for his somewhat fortunate Kempton success but it wasn’t a problem as he stretched clear to win by some eight lengths. His trainer has said his target will be determined by the handicapper but the RSA seems the most likely option and he is a general 20/1 shot. On the back of that success, the one who continues to shorten is Might Bite who would have beaten Royal Vacation but for a final fence fall at Kempton last time. He is reportedly none the worse for that fall and given the way he seemed to cast aside that rival, it is easy to see why he has been popular. He is now a general 7/1 second favourite behind Willie Mullins’ Bellshill. National Hunt Chase The final race whose entries closed last week was this race, also known as the 4 miler and 71 horses move forward with entries. A Genie In Abottle now heads the market with most firms having finished a close second to Anibale Fly at the weekend. He was under pressure for a long way but kept responding over 3m and the extra distance in this race looks likely to bring out the best in him. Nicky Henderson could have a couple of runners in the shape of Beware The Bear and Premier Bond and the latter showed a good attitude to win at Doncaster last Friday. He looks a thorough stayer and seems to have benefitted from the fitting of cheekpieces on his penultimate start. Tim Palin who represents the owners Middleham Park Racing confirmed this race was the plan, but he would need to step up a good deal on what he has done so far. Another who could be suited to this race is Champers On Ice who was once again staying on strongly at Cheltenham on Saturday. He looked as though he couldn’t go the gallop early on and was given reminders passing the stands but he stuck to his task to finish sixth. The 2m5f trip was much too short for him and an extreme test of stamina such as the 4 miler could be right up his street. Misc Races Mares Hurdle This race has a more open look to it with Vroum Vroum Mag having scrambled home in the Grade 2 Mares’ Hurdle at Doncaster. It took the 1/5 favourite a long time to get into top gear and she looked beat at the second last but found just enough on the run-in to get the job done. Her trainer said afterwards he thought she might have been under the weather: “”It was probably one of her worst performances. She might have had a cough or cold coming on, but Paul (Townend) said she was never travelling. She jumped the last two hurdles and I’d say it was just her bravery that won it for her. Maybe the second horse is better than we think, but it wasn’t a good performance from her at all.” Her stablemate Let’s Dance was also supported for the Mares’ following her race at the weekend but as discussed earlier, she is more likely to head for the Albert Bartlett. Cross Country There was also a surprise reverse in the Cross Country on Saturday as the French raider Urgent De Gregaine got the better of Cantlow. The 50/1 shot just handled the soft ground a bit better than the favourite and it also helped that he was getting over a stone from Cantlow. Clearly he handled the course well but I am surprised he is now as short as 6/1 for the Cross Country race at the Festival as this was a handicap and the Festival race is not. If these two lined up in March they would be racing off level weights and it is hard to see the placings being confirmed on that basis. Champion Bumper Mags Mullins’ Debuchet earned quotes of around 25/1 for the Champion Bumper having got off the mark at the second attempt on Sunday. The four-year-old stayed on strongly under Patrick Mullins to draw clear of her rivals and beat Joseph O’Brien’s Le Richebourg by six and a half lengths at the line. His trainer said that she would see how he came out of this race before making any decision about Cheltenham but she thinks he is a nice prospect for hurdling next year. The horse that beat him on debut was Noel Meade’s Red Jack and it was revealed in the Racing Post today that JP McManus had purchased the four-year-old. Having beaten Debuchet in good style at Naas, he would also be of interest if heading to Cheltenham and is as big as 25/1 with Paddy Power. Patrick Mullins also partnered an impressive winner for his father last week as Mystic Theatre justified short odds at Fairyhouse. The six-year-old won two point-to-points before joining Mullins and won with plenty in hand on this occasion. It is worth pointing out though that she is likely to be kept to mares’ company for the time being. Bets BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) My only bet this week is a speculative one but this horse gave the impression that a race like this would suit him before unseating at the final hurdle. Fergal O’Brien has enjoyed a fine season so far this term and has confirmed that this race is the target for his progressive seven-year-old. He has yet to qualify for the Final but is entered in a qualifier this weekend at Musselburgh and would only need to finish in the first six to qualify for the Final. It is also worth noting that I wouldn’t be too disappointed if he didn’t win at the weekend as another sizeable rise in the weights could shoulder him with a big weight. I think he is tailor made for a race like the Pertemps and I think he is worth a small each-way bet at a big price. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 11 Just a note to say that bet365 and SkyBet are now NRNB on all races at the Festival. Champion Hurdle There has long been speculation about the participation of the 2015 winner Faugheen and having missed his return date in the Irish Champion Hurdle it was revealed on Monday that he would miss the Festival. What was thought to be a tweaked muscle by connections turned out to be a stress-fracture which will rule him out of Cheltenham although Punchestown could be on the agenda. “It was confirmed this morning that Faugheen has suffered a stress fracture to his right hand ilium bone,” Mullins said. “He is definitely out of Cheltenham but I’m hoping he will be okay to return for Punchestown.” Not surprisingly that has had a big effect on the ante-post market with Buveur D’Air who made a winning return to hurdles on Saturday, the narrow favourite with most firms. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old didn’t have to come off the bridle to beat Rayvin Black and looks to have a leading chance come the Festival. Personally, I think he is short enough at around 3/1 but I think it is significant that connections have decided to go down this route when they had Yanworth as a contender already. Alan King’s seven-year-old missed Sandown at the weekend with a slight setback and will instead complete his Champion Hurdle preparations in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. “Yanworth is fine. He trotted (on Saturday morning) and he will be back cantering on Tuesday,” said King. “He slightly pulled a muscle in behind and the only way to get that right is give them an easy few days. I would think he will probably go to Wincanton for the Kingwell. I’d like to get another run if I can.” Given all this uncertainty and the defection of Faugheen, I am sure that David Pipe must be tempted to give Moon Racer a run in the Champion Hurdle. Given the horse’s problems, he might be injured next year and without the 2015 champion, it looks a wide-open renewal. Champion Chase If it were possible, Douvan further strengthened his position at the head of the market for the Champion Chase with a bloodless victory at Punchestown on Sunday. The seven-year-old didn’t have much to beat and his race was made somewhat easier when Smashing was pulled up after the fifth last. He cantered clear of his rivals on the bridle in the closing stages to win with six and a half lengths to spare and all being well, I find it hard to see anything giving the 1/3F a race at the Festival. One horse who is likely to line up against him is Nicky Richard’s Simply Ned. His trainer is aware that a number of horses are running scared of Douvan and feels that there is plenty of prize money to pick up. He is also hoping that Brian Harding, who is currently on the sidelines will be back to partner his veteran performer. However, one who won’t be lining up is Ar Mad for whom Cheltenham is likely to come too soon. Even though he is coming along nicely, the Cheltenham Festival is going to come too soon and it looks almost certain that we will head straight to Aintree or Punchestown instead,” wrote Moore in his Betway blog. There is simply no point rushing him back too quickly and you just can’t go to Cheltenham undercooked.” Looking ahead to this weekend, the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury had to reopened on Monday but Fox Norton was amongst the entries, with connections keen to get a run into him before the Festival. Joe Tizzard confirmed on Monday that the seven-year-old had done plenty of work since his injury and that his work in recent weeks had been very encouraging. He will face a maximum of six rivals including Altior, Garde La Victoire and the returning Traffic Fluide. The field is completed by Dodging Bullets, Gino Trail and Module. Gold Cup Colin Tizzard is also going to give a couple of his Gold Cup contenders a run this weekend with Native River set to head to Newbury for the Denman Chase. Joe Tizzard indicated that the time between Chepstow and Cheltenham was the reason for giving him another and they are hopeful of a strong showing. “We want to get another run into him because he’s had only two runs over fences this season and it’s a long time from the end of December (when he won at Chepstow) until mid-March.” His stablemate Alary who was disappointing in the Peter Marsh Chase last month is also set for a return to action at Exeter on Sunday. The French import was found to have an infection following that display but following a course of antibiotics, he seems to be in good order. The Tizzards are aware that it can take a while for the French horses to get used to their new surroundings and so are keen to take small steps with the seven-year-old. “As he’s only won twice he can still run in graduation races and the Exeter one is over three miles. We’ll go small with him, find our feet and see where we are after next weekend. Often it takes a while for French horses to acclimatise but he’s shown us enough at home for us to know he’s a very nice horse and hence the hype that came with him first time out.” The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown on Sunday is likely to offer us a few Gold Cup clues and Gordon Elliott is likely to be double-handed with Don Poli and Empire Of Dirt. The former showed signs of a return to form over Christmas and whilst he doesn’t show much at home, his trainer believes that he will take all the beating if repeating his Lexus run. His stablemate has made rapid progress in the handicap ranks in recent months and has earned a crack at a race of this level but his trainer is aware that this is a big step up for the Troytown winner. They also look set to be joined in the field by Minella Rocco with connections using the race to find out whether he should go down the Gold Cup or Grand National route. Frank Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus, said: “The Gold Cup is wide open but it’s still a hard race. He’s going to Leopardstown for the Irish Gold Cup and we’ll learn a lot more from that. That’ll be a big day for him. He got a bit tired between the last two at Aintree but was running a good race and should hopefully improve from that. If he puts up a good performance at Leopardstown it’ll make it easier to decide if he goes for the Gold Cup or the National.” Novice Hurdlers Supreme A total of 83 entries were received for the Supreme last week and whilst there were no real surprises, there were a few more juveniles on the list than normal. This is largely due to the fact that owner JP McManus gave all seven of his Triumph Hurdle entries an entry in the Supreme as well. The price of Melon continued to contract last week with Willie Mullins’ charge now as short as 11/4 with some firms for the Festival opener. However, Ruby Walsh was keen to play down his chances on television earlier this week and stressed that further improvement was required. “He travelled well and he jumped well – alright he reached a little bit at the last – but he won strongly on the bridle but the form is pretty average. The second horse was gutsy on the day but before that he only won a Tramore bumper so the form is not that strong but he can only win and he did and he galloped out through the line and went quite a distance to pull up which you would like. The time was a good bit slower than Petit Mouchoir a couple of hours later but you’d be expecting that. He’d have to improve off of that to be considered a Supreme Novices’ favourite anyway.” Another factor which caused his price to shorten was the defeat of another leading Supreme contender (my selection) Cilaos Emery getting turned over at Punchestown on Sunday. The five-year-old raced keenly behind horses but looked to have the race at his mercy as the field turned for home. However, he was soon under pressure after the final flight and was run down close home by the more experienced Mick Jazz. I wondered whether the ground might have been slow enough for him on Sunday and whilst I think he is worth another chance on better ground, he was pushed out to as big as 20/1 for the Supreme, and you have to wonder now whether he will line up. Nicky Henderson broke a long losing run in the Supreme with Altior last year and he had a couple of winners last week who wouldn’t look out of place in the Cheltenham opener. Top Ville Ben extended his unbeaten run to three under rules at Leicester, making all and pulling clear impressively in the closing stages. However, his trainer appeared to pour cold water on the idea afterwards, suggesting instead that he would head to Kelso for the Premier Hurdle. Lough Derg Spirit also made all when landing the Sky Bet Supreme Scottish Trial Novices’ Hurdle at Musselburgh on Sunday. He jumped well out in front under Nico De Boinville and found enough to see off the challenge of Peter The Mayo Man over the final couple of hurdles. He jumps very well which should give him quite an advantage at Cheltenham but he shapes to me as though the Neptune might be a more suitable target. Dan Skelton’s Mohaayed had some form behind a couple of smart novices and managed to get off the mark at Taunton on Sunday. He found plenty to see off his rivals but his trainer is likely to wait for Aintree as he believes the five-year-old prefers a flatter track. Neptune 118 entries were received for the Neptune last week and the ante-post favourite Finians Oscar is likely to complete his Cheltenham preparations this weekend with Colin Tizzard having given his Tolworth Hurdle winner an entry at Exeter on Sunday. Despite that entry being over two miles, Joe Tizzard confirmed that the Neptune was still very much the plan. We were umming and ahhing whether to run him again but he’s in great form and there’s no reason not to,” said Tizzard. “Two miles around Exeter will be similar to the two miles he encountered at Sandown. He wants a stiff two miles and he will almost certainly end up in the Neptune.” There is also a good trial at Huntingdon on Thursday in the shape of the Sidney Banks Hurdle. The likes of Messire Des Obeaux, Dashing Oscar and Benatar all hold entries and it could allow someone to put their name forward for the Neptune. Over in Ireland, the Deloitte Novice Hurdle over 2m2f is also likely to highlight a few potentials on the other side of the Irish Sea. Albert Bartlett Not surprisingly Death Duty was one of 103 entries confirmed for this race last week and his trainer confirmed that the horse will head straight to Cheltenham although he suggested that plans were still undecided. “He definitely won’t run at Leopardstown and he’ll go straight to Cheltenham. I’m leaning towards the Albert Bartlett with him. I think it’ll suit him, as he settles so well. You could drop him in and follow them around and you know he’s going to stay. We’ll see, as there is a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then.” Another potential Gigginstown runner in the race could be Monalee who at Clonmel last week. Henry De Bromhead’s horse got the better of the talented Battleford on his first try at three miles and the way he stayed suggests that the Albert Bartlett would suit. De Bromhead said: “We think he wants better ground. He ran a savage race in a bumper at the Punchestown festival last year. He’s a Milan and is a good moving horse. He’s entered in the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett, and we’ll see nearer the time. The Albert Bartlett would look the obvious race but there are a few things we need to consider like Death Duty! He has a bit of class as well.” On this side of the Irish Sea, Ami Desbois booked his place for the Albert Bartlett by winning a handicap in good style at Wetherby at the weekend. Graeme McPherson’s seven-year-old has solid form behind the likes of Wholestone and Messire Des Obeaux and his trainer believes it will take a good one to pass him if the conditions come in his favour. Monbeg Charmer landed the trial for this race at Musselburgh at the weekend but the horse’s temperament may be enough to stop him going to the Festival this time around. The six-year-old has plenty of ability but proved difficult to saddle on Sunday so his trainer is worried about what he will be like at Cheltenham. Longsdon said: “Saddling Monbeg Charmer was a nightmare and he was on his toes at the start so it might be tough for him at Cheltenham with a crowd of 50,000. He is a Festival horse but it might not be this year though I haven´t ruled it out this time. The owner has a box at Cheltenham but will not push me to run him if I don´t think it´s right.” Triumph/Fred Winter Leading Triumph hope Charli Parcs was missing from the declarations for Musselburgh at the weekend but could now head back to Kempton for the Adonis Hurdle for his next run. As I mentioned earlier, all of JP McManus’ Triumph entries were given alternative entries in the Supreme and this horse is the shortest in the market, currently at around 6/1. In his absence, it was Charlie Longsdon’s Forth Bridge who came out on top at Musselburgh, getting the better of Warp Factor and the well-fancied favourite Project Bluebook. The winner’s trainer is conscious that the horse’s future lies over fences in the long-term and is keen not to over face his juvenile this year but he has entries in both the Fred Winter and the Triumph. Coeur De Lion also put his name into the ring for the Cheltenham Festival with victory at Sandown, getting the better of the more experienced Rather Be. Alan King’s juvenile really knuckled down to hold off that rival in the closing stages and the pair drew well clear of the third. I suspect that the Fred Winter is the more likely option but whatever race he runs in, I would imagine that he will appreciate soft ground. In Ireland this weekend, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown and this has proved a good trial in recent years with four of the last ten Triumph winners having run in the race. A total of 14 entries were received with the likes of Bapaume and Meri Devie entered for Willie Mullins whilst Joseph O’Brien has Housesofparliament, Landofhopeandglory, Sword Fighter and Zig Zag all entered. Mares Novice Gordon Elliott’s Shattered Love benefitted from the fall of Willie Mullins’ Asthuria to land the Grade 3 Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse last week. There wasn’t much between the pair at the final flight but the departure of her main rival left her to come home in her own time to win by 13 lengths. However, that was over 2m2f and with the mares’ novice hurdle at the Festival being 2m, her trainer is concerned that might be a bit sharp for her. The last flight faller is still high up on many lists despite her error but she has now fallen on her last two starts and this would be a worrying trend to take to Cheltenham. Willie Mullins’ Camelia De Cotte attracted strong support prior to her debut success in Ireland before Christmas but she was pitched in against the boys on Sunday. She jumped well out in front before dropping away on the home turn and I don’t think she should be judged too harshly on this effort. A return to mares company is likely to be on her agenda next time. Novice Chasers Arkle As well as the absence of Faugheen from the Champion Hurdle, Willie Mullins was dealt another blow on Monday as it was revealed that Min will also miss the Festival with a bruise on his cannon bone. This has seen Altior cut to a general 1/2 for the Arkle and he was among entries for the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday. Yorkhill has been shortened up by a number of firms to be the general second favourite but there is still plenty of talk that he will end up running in the Champion Hurdle so this race looks a bit up in the air at present. JLT The switch of Buveur D’Air back to hurdles and Yorkhill possibly heading to the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle has meant that the JLT market has had a shake-up in the last week. Top Notch did himself no harm when winning the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown on Saturday and Nicky Henderson’s diminutive chaser appears to have this race on his agenda. His jumping was slick at the weekend and he coped with the testing conditions well to get the better of a good yardstick in the shape of Baron Alco. Clan Des Obeaux finished last of the five runners at Sandown with his jumping having gone to pieces a little down the back. His trainer now plans to give the five-year-old a confidence boosting run somewhere before bringing him back at either Aintree or Ayr in the Spring. The Nicholls team could have a couple of runners in the JLT though including Politologue who is likely to be given a race to settle down before heading to Cheltenham. His owner John Hales said: “We just need to wind him down a bit as he was wired up at Haydock and nearly pulled Sam Twiston-Davies’ arms out going down. We don’t want to put him in a hot race again just yet. We want to find another race before Cheltenham to get him settled and relaxed. He’s a fabulous horse – one of the best I’ve have ever had. The JLT is the plan.” Frodon could also represent the Ditcheat stable having landed the Scottish Future Champions Novices’ Chase at Musselburgh. He has a number of options for the Spring Festivals but he has now won five of his eight starts over fences and the JLT looks a good race for him. RSA Nicky Richards’ Baywing burst a few bubbles on Saturday as the eight-year-old caused a 33/1 surprise in the Towton Novices’ Chase. This was only the gelding’s second start over fences but he travelled much better than he had done at Wetherby previously. There was no fluke about it as he drew well clear of the smart Calett Mad and Missed Approach in the closing stages to win by 22 lengths. He does have an entry in the 4m National Hunt Chase but his trainer indicated it would need to be soft for him to take up that engagement. In terms of the RSA, Nicky Henderson hopes to have leading fancy Might Bite out sooner rather than later with Kempton or Ascot likely to be his targets. Henderson has a good record in the Reynoldstown at Ascot and the signs are that the horse is none the worse for his fall over Christmas. Henderson said: “There’s a Graduation Chase at Kempton on Friday or we could look at the Reynoldstown. He’s been schooling well and he did a nice bit of work on Saturday morning. He is the one for the RSA if he goes there.” Over in Ireland this weekend, the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase sees some smart performers go head to head. Bellshill, the favourite for the RSA is one of two entries for Willie Mullins, Our Duke, who won’t be running at the Festival is also entered along with a number of Gigginstown-owned runners including A Toi Phil and Disko. Misc Races Cross Country Auvergnat bounced back from a fall at Cheltenham to win at Punchestown last weekend and put his name right into the mix for the race at the Festival. The seven-year-old is relatively young for this discipline and he showed a good attitude to hold off the challenge of Usuel Smurfer in the closing stages. The runner-up is also worth keeping an eye on going forward as this was his first go at the cross country fences and he was conceding weight to the winner. Champion Bumper Alan Fleming is likely to have two runners in the Bumper at Cheltenham with Borderline Chatho and Bakmaj. Fleming confirmed Connell’s retained rider Denis O’Regan would have the choice of which horse he wanted to ride if both do line up at Prestbury Park in March. Amateur rider Stephen Clements, who has steered both to victory, is in line to partner whichever horse O’Regan passes over. JP McManus also sent out an interesting runner in the shape of Champ last week who made a winning debut in a bumper at Southwell. Despite being keen and showing signs of inexperience, he picked up well under Geraghty and won with plenty in hand at the line. Clearly he needs to improve on this showing to be contesting the Champion Bumper but his price ranges from anything as short as 10/1 to as big as 25/1. Foxhunters Jack Barber’s Ask The Weatherman made a winning debut in the hunter chase sphere last week, cementing his place towards the head of the market for the Foxhunters’. The eight-year-old is a multiple-winning pointer and had no trouble seeing off Rebel Rebellion on this occasion. His trainer was pleased with how he took to regulation fences and he will now head straight to Cheltenham for which he is a general 6/1. He could face Wonderful Charm who made a winning start in the hunter chase sphere at Musselburgh on Saturday. The nine-year-old won on the bridle under Will Biddick and will now have one more run before the Foxhunters’, although the Grand National could still be on his agenda later in the season. The defending champion On The Fringe is due to make his return this weekend at Leopardstown but be warned, he normally gets beaten in this race. He tends to come on for his seasonal outing so it will be interesting to see what the bookmakers make of his return. County Hurdle Gordon Elliott’s Campeador who was favourite in many lists for the County Hurdle has been ruled out for the rest of the season. It seems it has taken a little while longer than anticipated for him to get over his fall last time and is likely to be back in the autumn. His trainer could have another contender in the shape of Mick Jazz who lowered the colours of Cilaos Emery on Sunday. His trainer confirmed that the County was likely to be his next destination although it will be interesting to see what the handicappers make of his latest success. Diego Du Charmil could also line-up having landed the Scottish version at Musselburgh at the weekend. The five-year-old had failed to fire on his recent starts but his trainer believes that the ground is key to him. “Diego Du Charmil will have an entry in the County Hurdle at the Festival but he is ground dependent and wouldn’t be going to Cheltenham if the going turns soft. Another option might be the Scottish Champion Hurdle.” Bets FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) The first of my bets this week is this progressive chaser trained by Brian Ellison who took his record to three from four over fences last week with victory in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster. He finished his race off very strongly on that occasion to get the better of Malcolm Jefferson’s Cloudy Dream who was conceding 3lb to the winner. He makes plenty of appeal in the Arkle market as his trainer has indicated that this is the race in which he will run and given the uncertainty of the participation of the rest of the field other than Altior I think that 25/1 is a big price. He showed he had gears at Doncaster last time to overcome a bad mistake at the third last and I think he has a good chance of being placed in what looks increasingly likely to be a small field. CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) My second bet is this classy novice chaser who looked to be crying out for a strong stamina test on his penultimate start at Warwick. Having jumped slowly early on, he warmed to his task to get within four and a half lengths of the winner American. He was surprisingly dropped back in trip at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago although connections did a similar thing with Un Temps Pour Tout prior to last year’s Festival. Predictably he was outpaced early on but made some late headway to finish sixth, although he was well beaten at the line. David Pipe has said that he will run in either this race or one of the handicaps but given how strongly he seems to stay three miles, I fancy this is the most likely option for him. He has plenty of class having finished a close third in the Albert Bartlett last season and if he turns up on the day I suspect he will go off much shorter than his current price. He is available at 20/1 with Paddy Power but given the handicap option has been mentioned, I think it is best to have the security of NRNB and take the shorter price. MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) Also going into my diary this week is Messire Des Obeaux, who I think has a leading chance in the Neptune. Alan King’s five-year-old has done nothing but improve since being stepped up to 2m4f at the beginning of the season and his latest victory in the Challow Hurdle suggested to me that he had more gears than had appeared to be the case at Sandown. He travelled much better at Newbury and as a second season novice, his jumping is often better than that of his rivals. Clearly this looks a hot race with Finians Oscar and Neon Wolf both holding solid claims and Willie Mullins will no doubt have a couple of bullets to fire at the race. However, Alan King’s horse is entered at Huntingdon this week and with Ballyandy well-fancied for the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday, I think his price could contract in the coming days. I am aware that Challow winners don’t have a very good record in the Neptune but I think he is a little different to a normal winner of that race and I think he has solid each-way claims in this race. DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) Another horse who is engaged in the coming days is Disko who is entered to run in the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday. Noel Meade’s six-year-old ran a career best when stepped up to 3m for the first time over Christmas as he was a narrow third to Jessica Harrington’s Our Duke. That horse won’t be heading to the Festival and the one who split the pair Coney Island is half the price of this horse. That was only Disko’s third run over fences and whilst Sunday’s race is over 2m5f, it has proved a good pointer to the RSA over the years. He seemed to improve for a step up to 3m at Christmas and I think the RSA is likely to be the race for him so 20/1 looks worth a small each-way bet. DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) The final bet this week is this filly in the Triumph and whilst she has only run the once in Ireland, she made quite an impression when winning by 29 lengths at Cork in December. An easy winner of a French bumper prior to that, she has been given an entry in both the Triumph and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival. She has been the subject of some market support in the last week and as she is entered in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the weekend, this might be the time to catch her. As I mentioned earlier that race has proved a solid guide to the Triumph in the past and I fancy her to go well at the weekend. She would have the advantage of a 7lb allowance from the boys at the Festival which saw Apple’s Jade and Let’s Dance both finish in the first four places last year. This could be a weaker race than normal if some of the main protagonists head to the Supreme and I think she has a leading chance. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 (edited) MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 12 The handicaps close next Tuesday, after which we should have a better idea about the main protagonists for these races. These are unlikely to be released before next week’s Diary update but I will be having a run down on all of the selections that I have put up so far and analysing how my Diary is looking with the Festival just three weeks away. Champion Hurdle Nicky Henderson has been positive about the chances of Brain Power in recent days as the progressive six-year-old looks set to take his chance in the Champion Hurdle. Following Buveur D’Air’s victory at Sandown a couple of weeks ago, he was keen to point out that Brain Power could have done the same, and he is reported to have been working with Altior in recent weeks. He is still available at around 7/1 as opposed to the 3/1 about his stablemate and is very much on course for this assignment. A lively outsider in the race could be Superb Story who has a ‘solid each way chance’ according to his jockey Harry Skelton. “People will point to his rating (149) but he has never contested a Grade Two or Grade One hurdle. He is a bit of unknown in that respect. The last day he gave 26 pounds and a beating to the runner-up. Everyone knows Musselburgh is a quick track and there isn’t much margin for error around there. Ignoring his previous run in Galway (when pulled up), he has improved with every start and we know he likes Cheltenham. Horses have gone on from County Hurdles to running well or even winning Champion Hurdles. I think he is a Graded horse but we have to go and find out now.” The Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday could offer some clues and ten entries were received when they closed yesterday. Alan King has entered both Sceau Royal and Yanworth whilst Paul Nicholls has Fighting Fifth winner Irving as well as the exciting novice Capitaine. Champion Chase The Game Spirit Chase at Newbury has often been a good guide to the Champion Chase but whilst Nicky Henderson successfully took Altior out of novice company on Saturday, his trainer was adamant that he remains firmly on course to contest the Arkle at the Festival. “I think the one horse we know in Britain and Ireland that you´d avoid at all costs is Douvan. Willie (Mullins) has had a brutal time and I´m not saying I feel sorry for him or Rich (Ricci) and we´re going to stick to the Arkle, but I don´t see the need to go for the Champion Chase.” Chasing him home in second on Saturday was Fox Norton who made an encouraging return to action, having suffered a bad cut at Cheltenham in November. The seven-year-old was always going to be up against it conceding 5lb to the winner but he ran well under a patient ride from Aidan Coleman to finish a good second. There were noises in the Tizzard camp that suggested he could run in the Ryanair before Saturday as they feel that 2m on quick ground might be sharp enough for him, but he remains the second favourite for the Champion Chase at around 7/1. Finishing last of the four runners was the returning Traffic Fluide who had been off the track for over a year. He was very fresh in the early part of the race and pulled himself to the front before weakening in the closing stages. It was difficult to gauge how much ability he retains and I think his next run is likely to tell us more. He is still entered in the Ascot Chase on Saturday but that would be a quick turnaround for a horse which has been off for so long. Stayers Hurdle My ante-post selection Jezki is likely to have his latest prep race for Cheltenham at Gowran on Saturday as Jessica Harrington’s nine-year-old is set to line up in the Red Mills Hurdle. This race is likely to determine where he goes at the Festival with the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle both still on the agenda. Now that Buveur D’Air is Champion Hurdle bound along with Yanworth, it seems more likely that Jezki will join Unowhatimeanharry in the longer race although Saturday’s run should tell us more about his wellbeing. Noel Meade will be sending Snow Falcon over for the Festival despite the gelding being beaten on his last three starts. The seven-year-old was travelling well when falling at Newbury in November and his trainer believes the way races are run in Britain suits him well. Meade said: “”Snow Falcon goes for the Stayers’ Hurdle. He was going really well when he came down at the third-last in Newbury behind Unowhatimeanharry. It was still a fair way out and then he got beaten by Willie’s mare (Vroum Vroum Mag) at Christmas. English racing suits him as they go a fast pace and I’m hoping he’ll run well.” One horse who won’t be lining up in the Stayers’ Hurdle is One Track Mind as Warren Greatrex’s seven-year-old is likely to wait for Punchestown. The season hasn’t gone to plan so far with the seven-year-old beaten on both starts over fences and his trainer has confirmed that he will attempt to defend his crown in Ireland in the Spring. Gold Cup Native River enhanced his Gold Cup claims on Saturday with victory in the Denman Chase as Colin Tizzard’s horse showed a smart turn of foot in the closing stages. Aidan Coleman was a late replacement aboard the seven-year-old and apart from a small error at the water jump, the gelding jumped with his usual accuracy. He wasn’t ridden as aggressively on this occasion but he was able to run away strongly from the back of the last to the line and put three and a quarter lengths between himself and the runner-up. We know he stays well but he does seem to be improving with every run and he looks a major player in the Gold Cup in March. Peter Marsh Chase winner Bristol De Mai was fancied to give Native River plenty to do and in fact Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old was sent off favourite on the day. However, he never jumped with the same fluency as he did at Haydock and it ultimately made it harder for him to make ground up on his rivals. Perhaps this run came too soon after Haydock but as far as Cheltenham goes, the Ryanair looks a more suitable option than the Gold Cup. The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown produced a thrilling finish on Sunday and it was Sizing John who threw his hat into the Gold Cup ring as he stayed on strongly to land the Grade 1 prize. This was the seven-year-old’s first try at 3m but he saw it out well to get the better of Empire Of Dirt, with Don Poli back in third. His trainer said afterwards that she wasn’t sure which race he would run in at the Festival but both the Gold Cup and Ryanair look viable options, “It will come down to the Gold Cup or the Ryanair. He wasn´t stopping at the end of three miles today, so we might go the Gold Cup route. We don´t know whether he will get three and a quarter miles, but on better ground he might.” He is a general 12/1 shot for the Gold Cup and around 6/1 for the Ryanair Chase. I briefly mentioned Don Poli above and whilst he tried to make it as strong a test as possible, he was once again run down by a couple of more classy rivals in the closing stages. His trainer confirmed afterwards that he will now go the Gold Cup before having a crack at the Grand National at Aintree. Cue Card remains on course for the Gold Cup and is likely to run in the Ascot Chase on Saturday. The drop back to 2m5f is designed to sharpen up Colin Tizzard’s eleven-year-old but the Gold Cup is still his primary Spring target. Ryanair Last year’s winner of the Plate at the Festival Empire Of Dirt is set to return to the course in March, this time with the Ryanair on his agenda. Gordon Elliott’s ten-year-old lost little in defeat in the Irish Gold Cup on Sunday and having travelled strongly throughout the race, he shouldn’t have any trouble dropping back in trip. His form has been as good as ever this term and with the race likely to suit, it is easy to see why he is a general 8/1 shot. I should also mention that the victory of Sizing John on Sunday pays a nice complement to our Ryanair selection Sub Lieutenant who seemed to be outstayed at Thurles last time. That is not surprising given the winner’s exploits over three miles at the weekend and he looks to have a leading chance if taking up that engagement. Novice Hurdlers Supreme The John Ferguson-owned High Bridge completed his Cheltenham preparations on Saturday as he landed the opening novice hurdle at Newbury. Ben Pauling’s six-year-old is now three from three over hurdles and showed a smart turn of foot in the conditions to quicken clear of his rivals between the final two flights. He was driven out in the closing stages to win well at the line, with the fast-finishing Azzerti just over two lengths behind in second. The winner is a general 16/1 shot for the Supreme and as big as 25/1 for the Neptune. Afterwards, his jockey Alex Ferguson said: “I was thrilled with the way High Bridge picked up after the last and what you need at Cheltenham is class. I´d run in whichever race at Cheltenham I thought we could win and I think he´d stay the Neptune trip, but you need a stayer in the Supreme. I couldn´t be happier and he´s a horse we´re excited about.” Over in Ireland on Sunday, Bunk Off Early put his name forward for the Supreme when finishing second to the strong-staying Bacardys in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown. The five-year-old raced keenly under Paul Townend but was still good enough to hit the front on the run to the last. He found plenty for pressure from the back of the last but was just outstayed in the closing stages over 2m2f. He has been trimmed to a general 8/1 shot for the Supreme and granted a drop back in trip and a sounder surface, he looks a big player in the Festival opener. Neptune Colin Tizzard’s Finian’s Oscar was also in action on Sunday as he won with the minimum of fuss at Exeter. The Tolworth Hurdle winner jumped into the lead at the second hurdle and did as he pleased after that in the hands of Tom O’Brien. He was pushed out on the run-in to win by four and a half lengths but the winning margin could have been much greater should it needed to have been. This race didn’t tell us a great deal about whether the Supreme or the Neptune will be more suitable for him and it seems a decision will be made in the next couple of weeks. Personally I think the Neptune would be more suitable but he looks a high-class novice and is likely to make his presence felt in whichever race he contests. We also got some Neptune clues on Thursday at Huntingdon as Keeper Hill got the better of Challow Hurdle winner Messire Des Obeaux in a tight finish. Warren Greatrex’s six-year-old was getting 8lb from the winner and that just seemed to tell after the last as he got up to win with a neck to spare. He is a pretty good horse in his own right having won his last three starts and it looks as though connections will now have a look at the Neptune. As for the runner-up, he lost little in defeat and the sharp nature of the Huntingdon track probably didn’t play to his strengths. His best performances have come on stiff tracks like Newbury and Sandown so the way the race is won at Cheltenham is likely to be more suitable for him. He was largely left unchanged in the Neptune following this reverse and I still think he has an each-way chance if putting his best foot forward on the day. Another name to throw into the mix for this race is Ballyandy who got off the mark in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. Nigel Twiston-Davies has made no secret of the regard in which he holds this horse and he won in the style of a very smart performer on Saturday. Having seen off the runner-up Movewiththetimes with the minimum of fuss he now looks set to return to Graded company next time with the Supreme and Neptune both on his radar. I suspect he will end up running in the Neptune given that 2m on quick ground in the Supreme might be a bit sharp for him. It is also worth noting that Twiston-Davies won the Neptune with The New One a few years ago before campaigning him with the Champion Hurdle in mind and this six-year-old looks to have a similar future. The second Movewiththetimes was probably just a little short on experience on the day and should improve with that experience under his belt. Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old has been put up 10lb by the handicapper for that effort and with the top novice events probably beyond him at this stage, I think he could be a force in the County off his raised mark. Albert Bartlett As I mentioned briefly a little earlier on, Bacardys put his name forward for the Albert Bartlett when landing the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. Last season’s Aintree bumper winner was relatively unfancied beforehand but found plenty for pressure to get the better of his more fancied stablemate Bunk Off Early. It was his stamina which won him the day and despite the 3m of the Albert Bartlett being a good deal further than Sunday’s trip, his point to point form suggests the step up in trip shouldn’t pose any problems for him. He was a close third in the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival and he looks another interesting contender in what is starting to look like a hot race. Triumph/Fred Winter The pecking order in Ireland took another turn on Sunday as Mega Fortune reversed Christmas form with Willie Mullins’ Bapaume to land the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown. Gordon Elliott’s gelding seemed to benefit from being ridden more forward and the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time also seemed to bring about some improvement in the four-year-old. He was given a fine ride by Davy Russell and he showed no signs of stopping in the closing stages as he won with three and a half lengths to spare. The bookmakers reacted by cutting him to a general 7/1 second favourite for the Triumph behind Defi Du Seuil. Mullins wasn’t too disheartened with the run of the runner-up though and believes that he will still take his chance at Cheltenham with the prospect of better ground likely to improve his chances of turning the tables. My ante-post selection Dinaria Des Obeaux finished back in third but made a shuddering error at the second last which would finished many horse’s race. However, she regained her momentum and ran on strongly to the line and I think she is still in the mix for the Festival. It is worth bearing in mind that four of the last ten winners of the Triumph had run in this race but only one of those had won the race, so despite her drift in the market, I am still hopeful that she can play a part at Cheltenham. On this side of the Irish Sea, Master Blueyes got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Ludlow on Wednesday. Alan King’s four-year-old has bumped into some smart rivals including Cliffs Of Dover and Charli Parcs on his previous starts but had no such rivals to beat on this occasion. He came nicely clear in the closing stages and although the Fred Winter would probably be a more realistic Festival target, it seems he might skip Cheltenham altogether and wait for Aintree. This weekend the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at Haydock may offer some Triumph clues with a number of exciting juveniles taking each other on. Tom Symonds’ Don Bersy, Neil Mulholland’s Most Celebrated, Nicky Henderson’s Percy Street and Evan Williams’ Evening Hush are all amongst the ten entries and will be hoping to build on what they have done so far. Mares’ Novice The Rich Ricci-owned Let’s Dance has a number of potential targets at the Cheltenham Festival but her owner confirmed that this race is her most likely destination following her win at Leopardstown last month. Ricci said: “She’s in good form and is rated 147 now, so with a 7lb allowance in any of those open races like the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett, it would make her very competitive. The New Course at Cheltenham, on which the racing on the Thursday and Friday of the festival takes place, would suit her and so she has plenty of options. I would say at this stage the Dawn Run mares novice race on the Thursday of the Festival looks the most likely race for her in my view.” One mare who won’t be lining up is Kayf Grace who has failed to recover in time from a leg injury that she sustained last month. he Seven Barrows handler said: “She is wounded. She has got a bruised bone on her leg. She won’t make Cheltenham which is a pity. She got the injury two days before the Tolworth. I’m trying to get her back for later in the season but she is still lame from it.” Novice Chasers Arkle The performance of Altior at Newbury on Saturday was very good and aside from having a look at the first couple of fences, once he got into a rhythm, he didn’t look out of place next to a group of more experienced chasers. The ease with which he came clear from the fourth last was very good and his leap at the last suggested he still had plenty left in the tank. He certainly gives his fences plenty of air and at this stage with the absence of Min, the Arkle looks something of a foregone conclusion. He has yet to jump fences around Cheltenham which could pose a different test but the bookmakers have him as short as 1/4 for the Arkle and at this stage it is hard to see anything giving Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old a race. Flying Angel could take him on having won the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Saturday although Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old also has the option of the JLT. He took a little while to reel in the winner suggesting that the longer race may be more suitable but he went close in the Martin Pipe last year and he looks capable of giving a good account at the Festival. JLT Noel Meade’s Disko recorded a first Grade 1 win on Sunday as the six-year-old reversed the form with Our Duke to land the Flogas Novice Chase. His jumping was excellent throughout the race and as he jumped boldly from the front, he put his rivals under pressure. He was still travelling strongly as he turned for home and was pushed out in the closing stages to win by one and three-quarter lengths at the line. Historically this race has proved a good trial for the RSA but at the moment it seems as though connections are leaning towards running him in the JLT. I suspect that if the ground is good then they might be tempted to run in the RSA but he jumps so well out in front and more use can be made of him over a shorter trip. He is now a general 8/1 third favourite for the JLT behind Yorkhill and Top Notch but is also around 10/1 for the RSA. One who is almost certain to run in the JLT is Paul Nicholls’ Politologue who was a ready winner of a match race at Kempton last week. The six-year-old settled much better wearing a hood for the first time and always had too much for Pain Au Chocolat before he made a bad error at the second last. If he can stay sound between now and then he shouldn’t be too far away at the Festival but he disappointed on good ground in the Coral Cup last year and I would be concerned this time around if the ground got too quick for him. RSA The market for this race has taken a turn in the past week with Bellshill who was favourite in most lists, falling when well beaten by Disko at the weekend. Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old has shown a tendency in recent seasons to throw in the odd shocking run but this was well below what he has shown on his first two starts over the larger obstacles. He has disappointed at the last two Cheltenham Festivals and following this latest mishap I wouldn’t be surprised to see him skip the Festival and wait for Aintree or Punchestown. Replacing him at the head of the RSA market is Might Bite who looked none the worse for his Christmas fall when winning at Doncaster last week. In truth the opposition wasn’t up to much but he enjoyed what was basically an extended schooling session around Town Moor. The eight-year-old also has an entry in the JLT but he looks a strong stayer over 3m so I don’t see any reason why connections would go back in trip with him. One with an outside chance in the RSA could be Label Des Obeaux who got off the mark at the fourth attempt at Ludlow last week. Alan King’s six-year-old also has the option of running in the 4m National Hunt Chase or one of the handicaps, although his trainer stressed that there would need to be cut in the ground in order for him to take his chance. The Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot has proved a pretty good guide to the RSA in recent years and this weekend’s renewal attracted 10 entries on Monday. Fletchers Flyer, Our Kaempfer, Aux Ptits Soins and Chef D’Oeuvre all featured amongst the entries. National Hunt Chase A quick bit of news to bring you regarding jockey bookings for the Cheltenham Festival and in this race where the top amateur jockeys are highly sought after, Noel Meade has revealed that Jamie Codd has agreed to rider A Genie In Abottle in this race. The six-year-old has been the subject of some support in recent days and is now a general 6/1 shot for the 4m race. Misc Races Bumper The Willie Mullins-Rich Ricci axis was dealt another blow at the weekend as it was revealed that Getabird, who had been favourite in most books for the Champion Bumper would miss the Festival. Joe Chambers, racing manager for owners Rich and Susannah Ricci, said: “It’s highly unlikely he’ll make Cheltenham and he’s more than likely out for the season. He’s sore behind, unfortunately. It may have happened as a result of or during his win at Gowran. It’s a bad prognosis in terms of Cheltenham as opposed to his racing career.” However, Mullins could have a ready-made replacement in the shape of Carter McKay who made it two from two at Naas on Saturday. The six-year-old was taking on Joseph O’Brien’s impressive debut winner West Coast Time but brushed that rival aside with the minimum of fuss to land the spoils in convincing fashion. His work has reportedly been better since we saw him for the first time over Christmas and this Pearl Bloodstock-owned gelding looks a leading player in the Champion Bumper. On this side of the Irish Sea, Warren Greatrex is confident that Western Ryder will be suited to the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham following his run at Newbury on Saturday. The five-year-old was no match for the smart Daphne Du Clos but he was conceding 21lb to the winner so it was quite an effort from Warren Greatrex’s gelding. He is now 2 from 4 in bumpers and shouldn’t be too far away come the Festival. Greatrex said: “I was extremely pleased with that run. To give 21lb to a mare (Daphne Du Clos) Nicky Henderson thinks a lot of and only get beaten just over three lengths, you have got to be chuffed with that. I think he will improve on the back of that run. Although he had already won a Listed race, the other day was just a test to make sure he was ready to take to Cheltenham and I think that he showed that he is ready. This horse will thrive on the fast-run race, the hurly burly of it and the big atmosphere – he goes there, I would have thought, with a leading chance.” Pertemps Final Neil Mulholland’s Impulsive Star put himself into the mix for the Pertemps Final as the seven-year-old was successful in the most recent qualifier at Exeter on Sunday. The gelding is now three from four over hurdles with his only defeat coming behind Wholestone at Cheltenham in December. This victory and the subsequent rise in the weights should be enough to get him into the final and given his progressive profile there is no reason why he can’t have a say at the Festival. The race was also good for us as Barney Dwan finished fourth, meaning that he is now also qualified for the Final. Fergal O’Brien’s seven-year-old made good late headway and now that he is qualified, we can look forward to him running at the Festival. One who he is likely to face is Debra Hamer’s Tobefair who extended his unbeaten run to seven at Newbury on Saturday. The seven-year-old dug deep to see off the strong-travelling Morello Royale and having already gone up 53lb since June 2015, there is no reason to think he can’t continue improving. I suspect that he will come up short in the Final but he has the right attitude and the bookmakers now have him as the favourite at around the 8/1 mark. There is also a qualifier at Haydock this weekend which should see another six horses put their names into the hat. There are some familiar names amongst the 30 entries including Zarkandar, Ordo Ab Chao, Firebird Flyer and Call To Order, so it will be interesting to see who can get themselves into the Final. Foxhunters The ante-post favourite and winner of the last two renewals On The Fringe made a pleasing return to action on Sunday, when chasing home Foxrock at Leopardstown. Enda Bolger’s twelve-year-old jumped enthusiastically in the hands of Jamie Codd and although the winner drew clear in the closing stages, Codd was not overly hard on the runner-up. Bolger said of the runner-up: “We were taking on a different gravy with Foxrock, and our lad showed that the sparkle is still there. He jumped super, and still has a hunger for it. He hasn’t run since last April, so you would like to think that he will come on for that run.” Subsequently the bookmakers have taken no chances and he is now as short as 5/4 with some firms to land the Cheltenham race for a third time. Pacha Du Polder was a close fifth behind On The Fringe at Cheltenham last year and he got back to winning ways at Bangor last week. The cheekpieces he had worn in the summer were left off this time and he was always travelling well in the hands of Bryony Frost. He came nicely clear of Grand Vision in the closing stages and he must have a chance of going close at Cheltenham again this year. Persian Snow also looked a smart recruit to the hunter chase sphere when winning under owner David Maxwell at Ludlow last week. Philip Hobbs’ eleven-year-old had no trouble seeing off the challenge of Bear’s Affair but he is likely to avoid Cheltenham and be campaigned with the Aintree Foxhunters’ in mind. Grand Annual Last year’s runner-up Dandridge caught the eye when running over hurdles at Leopardstown on Sunday, perhaps setting him up for another crack at the Festival finale this time around. His hurdles mark is much lower than his mark over fences and he made late headway under Donagh Meyler to finish fifth at the line. His handicap mark is currently 4lb higher than the mark he was on last year although the handicapper will reassess if he is entered to run. Bets SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (Kim Muir) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) My first bet this week will be familiar to last year’s subscribers as I put him up in the National Hunt Chase at last year’s Festival. He finished fourth on that occasion and just found the 4m trip to be stretching his stamina on that occasion, although the form of the race has worked out well. His only run this term came at Doncaster at the end of January but he never really got into a rhythm at the rear of the field and finished well-beaten. Considering that was his first run of the season, I was surprised that the handicapper dropped him 6lb to 141. That means that he is now eligible to run in the Kim Muir and his trainer indicated on Sunday that this race would suit the seven-year-old well. I would imagine that Sam Waley-Cohen might be booked to ride given his affiliation with the yard and if that is the case, he is likely to be a lot shorter than his current price. On the pick of his form I feel he can be very competitive off a mark of 141 and when you consider how good his trainer is at preparing horses for the big day, I think he is worth an each-way bet. CLOUDY DREAM (Grand Annual) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (SkyBet) (4 places) My only other bet this week is this talented chaser whose only defeats to date have come at the hands of Champion Hurdle favourite Buveur D’Air and our Arkle fancy Forest Bihan. This strong-travelling seven-year-old hasn’t been seen to best effect over fences yet as he hasn’t had a strong pace to run at but the Grand Annual is likely to set up that kind of scenario for him. There is always a strong early pace and it would set up nicely for a patient Brian Hughes ride. He was an unlucky loser in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April in a similarly run race in which he showcased his smart turn of foot. The reason for his sizeable price is that his target is unknown at the moment but given that Altior looks just about unbeatable, I don’t see the appeal in him going there. This handicap is likely to play to plenty of his strengths and with the security of NRNB, I think he is worth a small each-way wager at the prices. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (Kim Muir) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) CLOUDY DREAM (Grand Annual) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (SkyBet) (4 places) Edited February 14, 2017 by beaker1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 13 With three weeks to go before the start of the Festival, it seemed like a good time to take stock of my selections to date and see where they stand with the Festival in mind. My first selection was Jezki in the Stayers’ Hurdle who had been off the track for a year but Jessica Harrington’s nine-year-old has now had two runs in preparation for the Festival. He was beaten at the weekend over two miles but the heavy ground is something that he has struggled on in the past, so I am not too concerned about him getting beaten. According to connections, the Champion Hurdle is still a possible for him but he is a general 8/1 shot for the longer race and with better ground likely to suit, I still think he has a strong chance. Kim Bailey’s Charbel hasn’t been seen since chasing home Altior before Christmas and has reported to have coughed in the meantime. However, his trainer reported him to be back in work in the last couple of weeks and he is likely to contest either the Arkle or the JLT at the Festival. His Uttoxeter form has been franked with Top Notch and Le Prezien both winning since and he is now a general 14/1 shot for the JLT, a good deal shorter than the 33/1 we took. Like many horses running at Cheltenham, his target is undecided but I suspect that given how he was beaten by Altior at Sandown, connections won’t be keen to take him on again. One of the less likely to run is Cilaos Emery who we tipped for the Supreme earlier in the season. He was beaten at Punchestown by Mick Jazz last time, which with the best will in the world is some way short of Supreme form. Having won his bumper on a sounder surface, it is possible that he could improve for better ground at Cheltenham but at this stage, he would have to be considered an unlikely runner given the strength of the Mullins stable. Should he not run however, the NRNB concession will come into play. Native River has shortened up since being advised at 9/1 for the Gold Cup following his Welsh National success. His most recent victory at Newbury was arguably his most impressive and following the news that Thistlecrack will miss the race he is now a general 3/1 favourite. Another who is a good deal shorter for his race is Wholestone who is around 6/1 for the Albert Bartlett. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding seems to have improved all year and turned in his best effort to date when winning on Trials Day at Cheltenham at the end of last month. We backed him at e/w 16/1 and at this stage, he looks a live contender. The debate about Moon Racer’s Festival target continues to rumble but is interesting to note that he has attracted support for the Champion Hurdle in recent days. Having tipped him up at 20/1 NRNB a few weeks ago, he is now 14/1 with the same firm, despite his trainer suggesting the Supreme is the main target. As I have said in recent weeks, I would be surprised if he didn’t run in the Champion Hurdle given his injury record and the open nature of this year’s renewal, but we are in the hands of his connections at present. One of our selections who won’t be going to Cheltenham is Kotkikova who was ruled out of the Festival by her trainer Nicky Henderson last week. Henderson told the Racing Post: “She’s done a splint and we have to leave her alone for a bit. I’m not sure how long she’ll be off but we have to deal with it and it’s come at the wrong time.” This is obviously disappointing news and is our first loss of the meeting. However, Sub Lieutenant remains on course for the Ryanair Chase according to owner Michael O’Leary. He is likely to be joined in the race for Empire Of Dirt but as I mentioned when we tipped him, I think the sounder surface at the Festival is likely to play to his strengths. He wasn’t beaten far by Sizing John last time and is now 10/1 with bet365 for the race. Barney Dwan also looks set for the Festival having qualified for the Pertemps Final at Exeter a couple of weeks ago. Fergal O’Brien has earmarked this race as the target for his seven-year-old and having run well for a long way behind antepost favourite Tobefair at Warwick, I think he can have a big say in the Final. Brian Ellison has confirmed that our selection Forest Bihan is on course for a crack at the Arkle which in turn has shortened his price to 20/1 with bet365. It will be interesting to see how many runners there are on the day but he must have a chance of making the frame, for all Altior looks hard to beat. Champers On Ice may wear cheekpieces for his next assignment which is likely to be in the National Hunt Chase according to his trainer David Pipe. He will also have entries in the handicaps but the 4m race is the preferred option at this stage for which he is still around 14/1. Messire Des Obeaux will keep his entry in the Supreme but would only take that engagement up if the ground was soft. His main target remains the Neptuneand despite his defeat at Huntingdon a couple of weeks ago, I still think he can have a big say at the Festival. Unfortunately my RSA pick Disko looks more likely to go for the JLT at the Festival following his Grade 1 success at Leopardstown. Noel Meade’s bold jumper must have a chance in either race but although all hope isn’t lost, it appears he will head to the JLT. My selection in the Triumph is Dinaria Des Obeaux who may have been beaten at Leopardstown but her trainer believes the stronger pace and better ground at Cheltenham will bring about improvement in his filly. She stayed on well following a bad mistake to finish third and if she can sharpen up her jumping, I still think she can run well in the Triumph. Our final two selections to date Southfield Royale and Cloudy Dream are also still very much on track for the Festival although the entries for their respective races haven’t yet been confirmed. Champion Hurdle Yanworth booked his place in the race with a hard-fought success in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday. Much like his victory at Kempton over Christmas, Barry Geraghty had to get pretty serious with the seven-year-old but he saw the race out strongly to get the better of Ch’Tibello. There is no doubt that the Cheltenham track will suit him better than Kempton or Wincanton but personally I doubt whether he can win the Champion Hurdle. One JP McManus horse who won’t be running in the Champion Hurdle is Sutton Place who continued his winning run in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan on Sunday. The six-year-old has now won his five starts under rules but his trainer Gordon Elliott ruled out supplementing him for any of the Festival races, he will instead wait for Fairyhouse. Dan Skelton confirmed on Monday that his main hope Superb Story would miss Cheltenham having suffered a tendon injury, with connections hoping he will be back in December. Ch’tibello who chased home Yanworth on Saturday was also described as 50-50 for Cheltenham having had his palate cauterised. The Skelton team felt he didn’t see his race out as well as they hoped and if he does miss the Festival, he will wait for Punchestown. If there is a Champion Hurdle horse in the north of England then it could be Cyrus Darius who was an impressive winner at Kelso last week. That was the eight-year-old’s second start of the season and he travelled much better on this occasion. He was helped by the fact that Born Survivor fell at the second last but he won with plenty in hand. He has the option of running in the Champion but the County Hurdle is also a possibility. Champion Chase There were only 20 acceptors for the Champion Chase following the latest forfeit stage and Douvan remains the long odds-on favourite at around 1/3. Those of you who read my diary last year will be aware that I tipped Traffic Fluide for last year’s race so I have been a keen observer of his two runs so far this term. I was surprised he was turned out so quickly at Ascot last weekend but much like at Newbury the week before, he made a sweeping move a long way from home before weakening in the closing stages and ultimately finishing well beaten. In his novice days I felt that 2m5f was too far for him as he is such an exuberant traveller but to be honest it has been hard to gauge just how much ability he retains. Stayers Hurdle Unowhatimeanharry shortened up for this race following Jezki’s reverse at Gowran on Saturday. Harry Fry’s gelding is as short as Evens with some firms with Vroum Vroum Mag the general second favourite at around the 6/1 mark (NRNB). Paul Nicholls is likely to saddle at least one runner in the race as owner Andy Stewart confirmed that Old Guard is set to take his chance in the race. He feels that the gelding is probably too high in the weights to be competitive in the Coral Cup and has therefore decided to pitch him into Grade 1 company. He could be joined by stablemate Zarkandar who got back to winning ways in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday. The ten-year-old travelled sweetly for Harry Cobden before quickening clear in the closing stages and he has been trimmed to around 20/1. However, his trainer has said that he would prefer to wait for Aintree with him as he believes he prefers a flat track. Gold Cup The Cheltenham Festival lost another big player today as Thistlecrack was ruled out for the rest of the season with a tendon injury. He didn’t seem himself on Monday and a scan revealed that he had suffered a slight tendon tear. Following the news, Native River is now the general 5/2 favourite with Cue Card at 7/2 and Djakadam next best at 11/2. In fact, Cue Card booked his ticket for the Gold Cup with a wide-margin success in the Ascot Chase on Saturday. Although the opposition wasn’t up to much, the eleven-year-old was always in control and had no trouble drawing away from his rivals on the turn for home. Now that the race is without Thistlecrack, he looks to have a solid chance of making amends for his fall in last year’s Gold Cup. Following the fallout surrounding the Grand National weights, it looks as though Gigginstown will be doubly represented in the Gold Cup by Don Poli and Outlander. In the revised market they are 16/1 and 8/1 respectively. Bristol De Mai was disappointing at Newbury a couple of weeks ago but a cut suffered during the race has been given as the reason for his below-par performance. With that in mind, his connections are still keen to have a go at the Gold Cup as they believe that he didn’t give his true running at Haydock. Ryanair Another potential Grand National runner who has been ruled out of the race is Empire Of Dirt with his owners instead rerouting him to the Ryanair. Last year’s winner of the Plate has improved again this season, winning a valuable handicap in Ireland before finishing a close second to Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup last time. He travels strongly in his races so should have no trouble dropping back in trip and he has been cut to around 5/1 with most firms. He is likely to face Josses Hill in the Ryanair, who Nicky Henderson has said will head straight to the Festival having missed the Ascot Chase because of the ground. His trainer reported that he had been 100% since his run in the King George and that he worked well at the weekend. He is generally available at 10/1 with most firms. Novice Hurdlers Supreme The victory of Beyond Conceit at Ascot on Saturday may have screamed Neptune to some observers but his trainer Nicky Henderson believes the Supreme may be more suitable for him. The race was quite steadily run on Saturday and Henderson believes that the stronger pace in a Supreme should suit him as he will settle better and he can stay on strongly up the Cheltenham hill. He did say that connections will consider their options before making a final decision but the Supreme definitely looks to be the preferred option at this stage. In betting news, it has been noticeable in recent days that the price of Betfair Hurdle winner Ballyandy continues to shorten for the Festival opener. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding is now a general 8/1 for the Supreme so it seems this is the route that he will take at the Festival. The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday could offer someone the opportunity to throw their hat into the ring. There are some promising performers amongst the twelve entries including Capitaine, Elgin, Peter The Mayo Man, River Wylde and Captain Forez. In truth, one of these would have to win pretty well for them to be considered a leading contender for the Supreme but it will still give us an idea about the pecking order in the novice hurdling division. Albert Bartlett Tom George’s The Worlds End booked his place in the Albert Bartlett as the six-year-old justified strong market support to win the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday. He has now won his last three starts and was trying 3m for the first time but he stayed on strongly to get the better of No Hassle Hoff. His trainer is keen for him to take his chance in the 3m Albert Bartlett, for which his prices range from 10/1 to as big as 16/1. Triumph Paul Nicholls revealed that Cliffs Of Dover will miss the rest of the season following a setback. The four-year-old suffered a knock on his leg in a schooling session and whilst his trainer had hoped the injury wasn’t too bad, the issue was more serious than it first appeared. His trainer plans to give him a long break now before bringing him back at around Christmas time. Don Bersy has been a fine servant to the Tom Symonds stable having landed his third success of the season at Haydock on Saturday. The four-year-old defied a penalty to get the better of Zalvados but he won’t head to Cheltenham instead possibly waiting for Aintree. His trainer believes he has a bright future and was pleased to see him handle this sounder surface but Cheltenham is definitely off the agenda for this year at least. Over in Ireland, Dandy Mag earned quotes as short as 20/1 for the Triumph following his debut success at Gowran Park. The gelding is a half-brother to the same stable’s Vroum Vroum Mag and he won with plenty in hand here. The Triumph will probably come soon enough for him but he could be one to keep an eye on going forward. Looking ahead to this weekend, the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton could off some Triumph clues with the likes to Charli Parcs and Evening Hush both entered. This race has proved a good guide in the past and the entries also include an interesting French recruit in the shape of Ibleo and a hurdling debutant from the Dan Skelton stable in Bedrock. Fred Winter Percy Street is also amongst the entries for the Adonis despite being a disappointing second at Sandown last Friday. The four-year-old was reported to have hated the ground but his finishing effort was still a tame one and he has yet to totally convince over obstacles. His current mark of 124 would not be high enough to get him into the Fred Winter but a sounder surface may bring about improvement in him at the weekend. One Nicky Henderson juvenile who is heading to the Fred Winter is Domperignon Du Lys who has been given a rating of 133. The French import has won two of his three starts for Henderson was last seen winning at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. Novice Chasers Arkle The only news of note in terms of the Arkle this week was that Identity Thief who was a general 12/1 third favourite for the race would miss the Festival. He had a little hold up in the last couple of weeks and connections don’t want to take him straight to Cheltenham having been pulled up and fallen on his last two starts. He could be back for the end of the season with Fairyhouse and Punchestown both possible targets but unfortunately the Arkle will come too soon. JLT Nicky Henderson already has a major contender for the JLT in the shape of Top Notch but he could be joined in the race by stablemate Whisper. He won on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham and his trainer is currently weighing up whether to run him in the JLT or the RSA. Henderson said: “I want to talk to Davy Russell (retained rider for Walters), he can advise me on what he thinks. If he is nearly favourite for the RSA that tells me something about the race. We have Top Notch in the JLT, but it is not the case that one horse makes a difference. It is a close call.” RSA The big mover in the RSA market following the weekend’s action was Acapella Bourgeois who made all to win a Grade 2 chase at Navan on Sunday. The seven-year-old soon had a big lead but showed little sign of stopping in the closing stages and came home to win with thirty two lengths to spare. The jockeys on the horses in behind didn’t cover themselves in too much glory but the form shouldn’t be underestimated, he is still improving and could be a force if getting into a rhythm in the RSA. National Hunt Chase Minella Rocco ran in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot before going onto win this race last year and this year’s renewal threw up a thrilling finish as Bigbadjohn got the better of Flintham in the shadow of the post. Both the first and second hold entries in the RSA and the NH Chase but given the way that the race unfolded, I suspect that the four mile race is the most sensible option for both horses. Back in fourth was Arpege D’Alene who is also likely to target the 4m race on the first day of the Festival. Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old was a little slow at a couple of fences but he continued to stay on for pressure under Sean Bowen and was beaten just over six lengths at the line. The National Hunt Chase has long been his target and having run well at Cheltenham on a number of occasions, it would be no surprise to see the extra emphasis on stamina bring out the best in him. Another horse who is likely to be at the start for this race is Calett Mad who has been confirmed as on course for the race by Simon Munir’s racing manager Anthony Bromley. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old was beaten by Baywing at Wetherby last time but he stuck to his task well and wouldn’t be out of place in the race. Misc Races Mares Ante-post favourite for the Mares’ Hurdle Apple’s Jade is set to return to action at Punchestown today as she lines up in the Listed Quevega Mares Hurdle. She faces five rivals including Limini as both mares try to put the finishing touches to their preparations for the Festival. They could be joined at the Festival by Colin’s Sister who maintained her unbeaten record over hurdles at Sandown last Friday. That was the mare’s fourth success and connections have a preference for this race as they feel the 2m trip in the novice hurdle is on the sharp side. They have however indicated that she might miss the Festival completely as she is a mare who prefers cut in the ground. Coral Cup Gordon Elliott landed the Coral Cup with Diamond King twelve months ago and he could have another live candidate on his hands in the shape of Runfordave who won at Clonmel last week. The five-year-old has only had the five runs over hurdles but he ran out a ready winner on his latest start, justifying short odds of 2/9. Afterwards his trainer said: “He was entitled to win and he’s improving the whole time. I would imagine that he will run in either the Coral Cup or the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, however the same owners have The Storyteller entered in the Martin Pipe. Jack [Kennedy] said that he wants 2m4f plus and that he would actually be better on better ground.” The Coral Cup could also be the next step for Harry Fry’s Air Horse One who landed the hat-trick when winning at Ascot on Saturday. He has taken a little while to get the hang of hurdling but his recent performances have been encouraging and having gone up just 6lb for that latest success, he is far from handicapped out of it. Pertemps Final The latest qualifier at Haydock on Saturday saw Tim Vaughan’s Dadsintrouble win for the third time over hurdles and for the second time since stepping up to 3m. He was raised 12lb for his win at Haydock in January but had no trouble defying that rise, travelling strongly before pulling nicely clear of his rivals in the closing stages. That should get him into the Final for which he is a general 10/1 second favourite. Foxhunters There was something of a turn up in the Hunter Chase at Kelso last week as Premier Portrait got the better of Black Thunder, despite the latter going off at odds of 1/8. The winner is a multiple winner in the pointing field and just seemed to outstay his rival on this occasion. His trainer is hoping that he will get in the Foxhunters at the Festival. As for the runner-up he was just outstayed in the end so perhaps Cheltenham is not the best place to be sending him. On this side of the Irish Sea, the best chance of dethroning On The Fringe looks to be Wonderful Charm who has barely come off the bridle in two starts in the hunter chase sphere. Paul Nicholls’ nine-year-old was formerly a smart chaser and hurdler but his wind has prevented him from fulfilling his potential. If the ground came up quick at the Festival then he must have a very good and following his Haydock win on Saturday, he is now qualified. Bets There will be no bets this week. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (Kim Muir) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) CLOUDY DREAM (Grand Annual) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (SkyBet) (4 places) Jimmy2shoes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 14 There are now only a couple of weeks until the start of the biggest event in the National Hunt racing calendar and the anticipation is starting to crank up now. I think we have room for a few more bets in the antepost portfolio and the handicaps are certainly an area that we can focus on. However, I think it is worth waiting another week as the weights are set to be published on Wednesday, so that should help make the picture a little clearer before adding in that area. There are also a few races whose initial entry stage closed at noon today namely the Cross Country, Champion Bumper, Mares’ Novice and Foxhunters’. Champion Hurdle There seems to be little doubt amongst the racing public that this year’s Champion Hurdle is the most open for some time and you only have to look at the betting market to see there are eight horses at single figure prices with most firms. It is therefore little surprise that having lost both Faugheen and Annie Power from his Champion Hurdle team, owner Rich Ricci is considering supplementing Limini for the race following her winning return last week. Despite being off the track since running at Punchestown in April, the six-year-old had little trouble seeing of a race-fit rival in the shape of Apple’s Jade and given the allowance she will receive in the Champion, it is easy to see why connections are considering that option. Personally, I would point to how far she was beaten by Buveur D’Air and Petit Mouchoir last Spring and whilst she might have improved, she would need to take another big step forward to be considered a viable contender for the race, even if it is a below-par renewal. Another more likely to be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle is Tombstone who got the better of Jezki on his latest run at Gowran Park. He has only had the seven runs over hurdles to date but most of his best form including his two wins have come on ground with heavy in the description. He did finish fourth in the Supreme last year behind Altior but was a good way behind Buveur D’Air on that occasion and unless the ground came up soft, I find it hard to see him giving the main protagonists anything to worry about. Another dilemma facing the connections of some of the runners are jockey bookings as Barry Geraghty was ruled out of the Festival on Sunday, following a fall at Kempton on Saturday. Mark Walsh is JP McManus’ number two jockey in Ireland but whether he will deputise for Barry on all the leading fancies remains to be seen. Personally, I suspect that Noel Fehily could pick up the ride on Buveur D’Air having ridden him all last season, although Aidan Coleman partnered the six-year-old on both his chase starts. This is not a problem exclusive to the Champion Hurdle though and it will be interesting to see who picks up the rides in Barry’s absence. Champion Chase If the Champion Hurdle is wide open then one of the least competitive races of the meeting is likely to be the Champion Chase where Douvan looks to be head and shoulders above his rivals. Willie Mullins’ all-conquering seven-year-old is 1/4 with a number of firms and to be honest it is hard to see any potential weaknesses in his armour. One familiar face who is reported to be in excellent form by his trainer is Special Tiara who has been placed in the last two renewals of the Champion Chase. The now ten-year-old has always been considered a good ground performer so it was no surprise to see him run a little disappointingly at Cheltenham in November and again on Trials Day in January. He got his ground at Kempton when he got the better of Sir Valentino but his jockey mentioned that he was probably better over a stiffer 2m these days. His trainer backed that opinion up when speaking in recent days and is confident he can put up a bold show if the conditions are in his favour at the Festival. I find it hard to see him beating Douvan but other than Douvan, I don’t think there is much depth to the field and he could be worth a second look at a big price. Gold Cup Having been rocked by the news that Thistlecrack would miss the race last week I was surprised to read reports of the gelding being backed on Betfair for the race on Sunday evening. The source of this market move appears to have been comments from Colin Tizzard suggesting that the nine-year-old would have another scan of the problem leg on Tuesday. It was reported that the heat in his leg had gone away and the swelling had gone down but a scan was scheduled to get a better idea of the injury. Tizzard confirmed last night that “as far as I’m concerned he’s still out” although he did say “we live in an uncertain world but he’s 99% out.” In light of the favourite’s absence, Native River assumed favouritism with most firms, although in recent days, a number of firms have installed his stablemate Cue Card at the head of the market. Clearly there is the element of the unknown with both horses with a view to the Gold Cup but whilst Cue Card was impressive at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, I can’t help but think about his fall in the race last year and if it turns into a duel up the hill, I would still prefer to have the younger legs and proven stamina of Native River on our side. In terms of our ante-post bet I think we are in a strong position and all being well I find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame. Novice Hurdlers Supreme Nicky Henderson continued his fine record in the Dovecote on Saturday as River Wylde landed the spoils and he may have booked his place in the Supreme following his success. The six-year-old won two novice hurdles at Ludlow before running at Kempton on Saturday and having jumped the final flight better than his rival Elgin, he raced away to win by three and a half lengths. He is clearly improving all the time and Anthony Bromley suggested last night that this horse would head to the Supreme, whilst Lough Derg Spirit (same owners) might wait for Aintree instead. Henderson has a couple of other potential Supreme runners such as Beyond Conceit and Charli Parcs but this is now the shortest in the market at a general 14/1. Much was made of the Betfair drift on Melon at the weekend but Willie Mullins confirmed that all was well with the five-year-old. He also described the gelding as a natural jumper and seemed to suggest that Ruby had a fairly easy decision when he chooses which one to ride. He could have three of his stablemates lining up alongside him as Mullins nominated Bunk Off Early, Crack Mome and Cilaos Emery as potentials for the race. Of the latter two, he said: “I think Crack Mome and Cilaos Emery have good enough form to place or even win it if things go right. We think a bit of both. They have had two runs each and all these horses are going to improve.” That is encouraging news for us as I thought our chances of Cilaos Emery running in the Supreme were pretty slim last week but if he lines up, he could still run a big race on just his third start over hurdles. Neptune At the head of the market, Neon Wolf has displaced Finians Oscar at the head of the market suggesting that there is real momentum building behind Harry Fry’s horse. The form of his Haydock win was not disgraced when Elgin finished a good second in the Dovecote on Saturday and might have finished even closer to the winner with a better jump at the final flight. Only last week Fry reiterated that no decision about his Cheltenham target had been made and that the ground would have to be suitable for him to take his chance. Of the pair, at this stage I would prefer to be with Finians Oscar as I think the ground is likely to be more suitable for him at the meeting. Another who has shortened up in recent days is Bacardys who Willie Mullins confirmed is on course for the Neptune despite also holding an entry in the Albert Bartlett. The six-year-old was third in the Champion Bumper last March before going on to land the Bumper at Aintree and since falling on his hurdling debut in November, he has won twice since. His trainer confessed that he surprised him with his win in the Deloitte at Leopardstown earlier this month but the step up in trip seemed to really suit him and another three furlongs in the Neptune is unlikely to be of any concern to him. Mullins has won this race four times in the last decade so his runners are worth a second look and at this stage, he looks the main hope for the yard. I was really impressed with the way he stayed on at Leopardstown last month and his inclusion means the Neptune is shaping up to be a competitive race. Albert Bartlett Gordon Elliott confirmed in a Q&A session last night that Death Duty was on course for the Albert Bartlett and named the six-year-old as his best chance of a winner throughout the week. Augusta Kate looked likely to give him a race last time when coming down at the final flight and Willie Mullins has confirmed that she will take him on again at the Festival. The mares’ novice hurdle was also under consideration but her trainer believes that the 2m trip would be too short for her, so has elected to go down the 3m route. She will also be joined in the race by stablemates C’Est Jersey and Penhill, with the latter likely to appreciate the quicker ground according to his trainer. Funnily enough this is one of the novice races in which Willie Mullins doesn’t have a very good record but it is hard to see Augusta Kate being too far away if she reproduces her Naas run (barring the final flight). In terms of my selection Wholestone, I was pleased to hear Anthony Bromley give him a favourable mention on At The Races on Monday evening when speaking to Matt Chapman. His form is holding up well and the way in which he won at Cheltenham last time suggested that he is continuing to improve. With the Festival in mind, he looks pretty versatile in terms of ground conditions and he has shown on more than one occasion that he can get down and tough it out under pressure. This should stand him in good stead in the Albert Bartlett and I am confident of a big run from him. His task could be made a little easier if West Approach doesn’t line up with connections still mulling a crack at the Stayers’ Hurdle with him. He was far from disgraced in the Cleeve Hurdle behind the likes of Unowhatimeanharry and Cole Harden but his price of 20/1 is probably a fair reflection of his chances for the open event. If he does revert back to novice company then he would clearly be a leading player although Wholestone has seen him off on a couple of occasions already this Triumph Alan King’s Master Blueyes caused something of a surprise when winning the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle in taking fashion on Saturday. Alan King’s four-year-old took four attempts to get off the mark over hurdles but has clearly turned a corner since then and although people will point to the fact that Charli Parcs didn’t run his race, the winner still beat the smart Evening Hush by eleven lengths at the line. His trainer said afterwards that his success at Ludlow had brought him on a tonne and whilst he didn’t consider him a Triumph horse beforehand, he certainly does now. Perhaps it has just taken a little longer than normal for the penny to drop with him but he travelled and jumped really well and it is hard to argue that this was a fluke. As I mentioned briefly much will be made of the run of Charli Parcs who was a short price to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles. However, Barry Geraghty never really seemed happy with the four-year-old and was urging him along from some way out at Kempton on Saturday. A lot will be made of the fact that he fell at the second last but he made up a lot of ground once he got into the clear as the field turned for home and he might even have been coming back on the bridle. I suspect that he didn’t really enjoy being in amongst horses on Saturday but once he got sight of some daylight he really started to motor. I think he would have been at least second if he had stood up and I am surprised that some firms pushed him out so much for both the Supreme and the Triumph. His latest run may now mean that he stays down the Triumph route but Nicky Henderson described him as potentially the best juvenile he had trained in the lead up to the race and I would be surprised if he was so wide of the mark. As for my selection Dinaria Des Obeaux she was awarded her Grade 3 success in the Stewards Room at the weekend, having suffered interference in the closing stages at Fairyhouse. It seemed a fair enough decision as she was checked, switched to the outside and was gaining all the way to the line and only beaten a nose at the finish. Regardless of the interference, she didn’t really look like a Triumph horse in the making and Gordon Elliott confirmed last night that she could run in the Fred Winter, depending on what mark she gets from the British handicapper. She hasn’t been totally ruled out of the Triumph but at this stage, the handicap option looks a little more likely for her. Novice Chasers Arkle With Altior now as short as 1/4 for the Arkle, there are plenty of connections looking for alternative options but one man who doesn’t seem to be deterred is Henry De Bromhead who could saddle as many as three in the race. Unfortunately one of those won’t be Identity Thief who won’t be ready in time for the Festival but Some Plan, Three Stars and Ordinary World are all on course for the race. De Bromhead said: “Some Plan won the Irish Arkle, Three Stars has won a Grade Three at Punchestown and was just beaten in another Grade Three, and Ordinary World was second to Min on ground he wouldn’t have been mad about at Leopardstown. I hate going out with the train of thought that we’re running for second, I’m not confidently thinking I’m going to win, ratings will tell you I’m not, but I’m running to win and that’s it.” Some Plan is the shortest of the trio at around the 14/1 mark, with Ordinary World a general 40/1 shot and Three Stars as big as 66/1. It is also worth pointing out that our selection Forest Bihan is now a general 16/1 shot, a good deal shorter than the 25/1 I advised him at a couple of weeks ago. His trainer is confident that he deserves to take his chance in the field and whilst it is hard to see Altior slipping up, I think his form is as good as any of the other potential runners in the race. JLT There isn’t a great deal to report on this front but I was interested to read Sam Twiston-Davies’ comments, who described Politologue as his best chance of a winner at the meeting. The hood and earplugs that the six-year-old wore last time really seemed to settle him down and that will be important given the size of the crowd and the noise that he will face at the Cheltenham Festival. His overall form is very good including his narrow defeat by Waiting Patiently as he was conceding 3lb to the winner on the day. Twiston-Davies said: “It was disappointing to get beaten at Haydock, but I don’t think he lost much in defeat as he gave the winner 3lb. He’ll have a hood and ear plugs and that should help him switch off better. He’s becoming the finished article.” RSA Having been favourite for the race a few weeks ago before his fall at Leopardstown Bellshill could still come over for the Festival with the RSA and the National Hunt Chase both still possible targets. His trainer mentioned that he ran poorly at that Leopardstown meeting last year and is under no illusions that his best chance lies in a race where his stamina can come into play. He will need to continue to please his trainer in the mornings to make the journey over but 12/1 seems a more realistic price than the 4/1 he was before his last run. Misc Races Mares Apple’s Jade may have suffered defeat at the hands of Limini last week but she remains on course for the Mares Hurdle according to her trainer Gordon Elliott. Although she has won on heavy ground in the past, I suspect that she is better on a sounder surface and given that connections of the winner are mulling a Champion Hurdle bid, she might just have bumped into one on this occasion. She has plenty of form to suggest that she can run a big race in the Mares’ Hurdle although her old rival Vroum Vroum Mag could be tough to beat. The pair met at Fairyhouse in December when Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old was probably given too much to do and there was only a short-head between them at the line. This race seems to be the main target for Vroum Vroum Mag at the Festival and personally I think she is hard to oppose at the head of the market. Bumper JP McManus looks to have a couple of smart bumper prospects in his ownership, notably Early Doors who made a winning start at Punchestown last week. The four-year-old settled well early on and stayed on strongly under Patrick Mullins to win by nine lengths at the line, earning him quotes of as short as 20/1 for the Champion Bumper. There was no suggestion afterwards that Cheltenham was on the agenda but his trainer Joseph O’Brien thinks a lot of him so he could be one to keep an eye on. Another who will carry the JP McManus silks is Delirant who hasn’t raced in Britain yet but in his time in France he won two bumpers, including a Grade 1 contest at Saint-Cloud in November. He has a number of entries in the next week or so which suggests connections are keen to get him out and it will be interesting to see if his name is amongst the entries for the Bumper when it closes. David Pipe said in a recent stable tour that he wasn’t sure whether he would head to Cheltenham and he is as big as 25/1 with Skybet. One who looks unlikely to line up at the Festival is Champ who could only finish second to Emma Lavelle’s Irish Prophecy at Kempton on Saturday. Adrian Heskin always looked confident aboard the winner and he was only pushed out to win by a widening margin at the line. He was introduced at 10/1 with one firm but his trainer’s husband said afterwards: “we are thinking about Liverpool but I wasn’t expecting him to enjoy the cut in the ground and with that and the pace he has he is even more exciting. We never factored in Cheltenham and I don’t think we should change.” Foxhunters Paint The Clouds who has finished third in the last two Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival is likely to head there for another crack this year following a winning return to action at Doncaster last week. The twelve-year-old was lame after his victory at Stratford in the summer but the vet was happy for him to continue his career when he checked him in October. He is a horse who prefers a sound surface and Warren Greatrex has said that if the ground is suitable, he will be lining up again. Another lining up with a chance is Pacha Du Polder who also made a winning return to action, landing the spoils at Bangor a couple of weeks ago. Paul Nicholls has been pleased with the ten-year-old since he came back in last year and hopes that keeping him fresh could result in a better performance come the Festival. Bryony Frost is going to ride him this time around and considering his rider was unable to pick up the whip in last year’s race, I think he is currently a little overpriced at around the 16/1 mark. Nicholls’ main hope is likely to be Wonderful Charm who has won his first two starts in this sphere. Nicholls revealed this week that Katie Walsh has been booked to ride Wonderful Charm with regular pilot Will Biddick opting to ride Ask The Weatherman for Jack Barber. To be honest, I find this a difficult race to weigh up ante-post and given the potential for fallers, it is not a race I am too keen to have a big bet in. Handicaps Coral Cup Peregrine Run claimed a notable scalp earlier in the season when getting the better Wholestone at Cheltenham in November and it seems his trainer is leaning towards a crack at the Coral Cup, depending on what mark he gets from the handicapper. He also ran behind Willoughby Court at Warwick in January and the form of that has been boosted with the runner-up Gayebury bolting up on his handicap debut at the weekend. The ground would have been too soft for him at Warwick and his trainer has said that he won’t go to Cheltenham unless the ground is good. Fred Winter With the Fred Winter in mind, it was no surprise to see the price of Divin Bere shorten up on Saturday evening. Nicky Henderson’s juvenile got the better of Master Blueyes at Huntingdon earlier in the season and hasn’t been seen since. That was his fourth run over hurdles and despite the wide margin of the Adonis winner on Saturday, Divin Bere has only been raised 2lb by the handicapper to a mark of 139. Henderson won this race with Une Artiste in 2012 and he looks to have another strong candidate on his hands here. Pertemps Final I mentioned in passing a little earlier that Gayebury had made a successful start to life in handicaps and he booked his place in the Pertemps Final with a wide-margin success at Chepstow on Saturday. He looked to have plenty in hand as he stretched clear of his rivals to win by thirteen lengths and the handicapper has taken no chances by raising him 15lb to 147. He is a general 14/1 shot for the final but only one of the last ten winners has been rated higher than 140 so I wouldn’t be too quick to back him for the final. Those in behind him who managed to qualify for the Final were Jury Duty, Surtee Du Berlais, Solstice Star, Splash Of Ginge and Rolling Maul. Over in Ireland, Presenting Percy enjoyed a nice prep run for the Final by winning at Fairyhouse in the hands of Davy Russell. The six-year-old was fourth and fifth in Qualifiers earlier in the season but was fitted with a tongue-tie for this assignment and it seemed to bring about a good deal of improvement. He won with plenty in hand and the rise in the weights should be enough to get him into the Final. He represents the same connections as last year’s winner Mall Dini so has to be respected, although I think 6/1 is a little skinny at this stage. County An interesting name amongst the entries for the County Hurdle was Arctic Fire who hasn’t been seen since finishing second to stablemate Faugheen in last season’s Irish Champion Hurdle. However, his trainer said earlier in the week that he was “less than 50-50” to run in the race, although that largely depends on how his work is in the coming weeks. He went very close to winning the race in 2014 but his mark is likely to be a good deal higher this time around and given his absence, he is probably worth passing over. Another returning from a lengthy absence is Peace And Co who hasn’t run since being pulled up in the Champion Hurdle behind Annie Power last year. However, his trainer was very complimentary about the horse in a stable tour last week and believes that he might have got him back to something like his best form. “He is working extremely well and you could ride him in a head collar these days. All that lunacy has gone and I am not going to say you will see another Lazarus but you might do. He has been working well and he could go Imperial Cup and then the County Hurdle. He has had a wind operation and then pneumonia and he has just come back a completely different person. You can’t say it will work but you can ride in front, ride him from the back or anywhere whereas he was previously going 100mph on the racecourse.” His current mark is 149 which is high enough for the County but on his day he was a Grade 1 performer so perhaps he may be able to shoulder a weight like that. The favourite with most firms is North Hill Harvey who has been off the track since winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. He is only 8lb higher for that success and he seems to be following the same route as his stablemate Superb Story who was placed in the Greatwood before winning the County at last year’s Festival . Modus has done the form no harm subsequently, winning the Lanzarote and clearly the horse has been laid out for this race by his trainer. Martin Pipe Paul Nicholls saddled a second winner of the race with Ibis Du Rheu last year and he will have at least one runner this time around in the shape of Tommy Silver, who is likely to target the race following his winning return at Taunton last week. Stan Sheppard is likely to keep the ride on the five-year-old who was seventh in last season’s Triumph and he is available at 25/1 with a number of firms. Gordon Elliott has yet to win the race but is hoping that The Storyteller can end that run this year. The six-year-old has won his last two starts over hurdles, most recently getting the better of Battleford at Thurles and given he is rated 142 in Ireland, it will be interesting to see what the British handicapper makes of him. He is generally the favourite with most of the bookmakers at around 8/1 and given his form it is easy to see why he has been so popular. Bets DIVIN BERE (Fred Winter) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Paddy Power, SkyBet) (4 places) Just the one bet this week and that is this four-year-old in the Fred Winter. As I mentioned above, the form of his latest run was franked at the weekend with Master Blueyes landing the Adonis and I think his revised mark of 139 is fair enough given what he has achieved so far. Nicky Henderson tends to do well with his juveniles and although the Triumph might be tempting for connections, I think he has a big chance if he lines up here. He has attracted some support over the weekend but I still think 10/1 is reasonable enough and with the NRNB concession, we don’t have to worry if he runs elsewhere. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) (likely non-runner) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) DIVIN BERE (Fred Winter) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Paddy Power, SkyBet) (4 places Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017 PART 15 My final ante-post diary update ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. I had planned to do some updates throughout the week of the Festival but I will be putting a few bets up here and I am content that those bets will be good enough to take us through the week. I will then do a debrief the Tuesday after the meeting to reflect on how we have fared. Looking ahead to next week, the going on the first day of the Festival is always a source of some discussion and Simon Claisse described the ground as ‘good to soft’ this week. However, there is plenty of rain forecast between now and the start of the Festival, so there has to be a chance that the meeting will start on soft ground. That would be an interesting turn of events considering that most of the time spent talking about the Festival often involves horses being suited by a sounder surface, although it is worth saying that I don’t think it will be very soft. Champion Hurdle Considering our position on Moon Racer in the Champion Hurdle, it has been encouraging to see money for David Pipe’s gelding for this race in the last few days. Having advised him at 20/1 a few weeks ago, he is now just 10/1 with the same firm and has drifted on Betfair for his alternative race, the Supreme. Despite not having seen him since Cheltenham in November, I am still confident that he has a strong chance in what looks a weaker renewal of the Champion Hurdle than we have been used to in recent years. The form of that Cheltenham win has been given a good boost since and the fact that he has only been beaten once in his life underlines just how much ability he has. David Pipe has said that he will be left in both races at the five-day stage before making a decision at declaration time but at this stage, I would be surprised if he went down the novice route. One who looks less likely to line up in the Champion Hurdle is Tombstone whose connections are likely to be tempted to run him in one of the handicaps. Considering the number of Irish connections who have bemoaned their treatment by the British handicapper, this one’s mark seems to have deterred the Gigginstown team from supplementing the seven-year-old. He holds entries in both the Coral Cup and the County Hurdle. Stayers Hurdle In the staying hurdle division, there is little doubt that Unowhatimeanharry will be sent off favourite for this race as he is currently as short as Evens for the race. However, following the injury to Barry Geraghty, it is now unclear who will pick up the ride on the all-conquering nine-year-old. Personally, I suspect that Noel Fehily will pick up the ride having ridden him for most of last season and he has also picked up a couple of spare rides for JP McManus already this term. In terms of my selection Jezki, it has been confirmed that Mark Walsh will take the ride on him in the Stayers, which is a welcome relief following a few months of uncertainty about his potential target. I think he has all the ability to pose a serious challenge to the favourite and if the ground is good, I think he can run a big race for us. Looking at market support in recent days, Shaneshill has attracted some money at around the 8/1 mark. He was a close second in the RSA at last year’s Festival but his last two runs over hurdles have suggested he can be a force in this contest. He took a crashing fall when still in contention at Leopardstown over Christmas but made amends at Gowran last time when getting the better of Snow Falcon. He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and I can see why he has attracted support. Gold Cup Nothing much to report just over a week out from the Gold Cup but Djakadam did please in a schooling session after racing at Leopardstown on Sunday. The eight-year-old was neat at his fences and considering that he has had his fair share of jumping problems in the past, it was good to see him jump without alarm. He has enjoyed a much smoother preparation for this year’s Gold Cup than he did last year and if he can reproduce either of his two previous runs in the Gold Cup, it is hard to see him being too far away at the final fence. Jonjo O’Neill is likely to saddle two with outside chances in the shape of Minella Rocco and More Of That, although he does concede that Native River is the one to beat. The former could wear cheekpieces in the Gold Cup in an attempt to get him to concentrate and it is worth bearing in mind that he beat Native River at last year’s Festival. The latter ran his best race for some time at Leopardstown last month before unseating at the final fence and if he can reproduce that sort of form, then he would have an outside squeak. Novice Hurdlers Supreme It has been interesting to read some of the reports from the preview evenings in recent days and a common theme has been that people are keen to oppose the favourite Melon. Gordon Elliott was keen to point out that the horse he beat at Leopardstown was only rated 110 in Ireland and that the winner would have to improve a good deal to justify his general 4/1 price. He is clearly priced up on his connections and the visual impression that he created that day and I am inclined to agree that he is worth taking on at the current prices. Looking at what else might line up in the Festival opener, it seems that this is the Festival target for the Betfair Hurdle winner Ballyandy. Nigel Twiston-Davies had been weighing up a possible tilt at the Neptune (which he won with The New One) but given the way he travelled and quickened away at Newbury, his trainer believes this will be the more suitable race. Personally, I thought he might go down the Neptune route as he didn’t seem to do anything too quickly on his first few starts over hurdles and he was outpaced coming down the hill before staying on up the hill. I can see him running a similar race in the Supreme and perhaps running into a place up the hill. In terms of the market, the one with a sea of blue on the oddschecker board beside him is Neon Wolf who is now as short as 4/1 in some places for the Supreme. This might be due to the forecast of potential soft ground on the first day of the meeting but there is no doubt that Elgin did the form little harm at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. His trainer Harry Fry has said that he will leave the horse in both the Supreme and the Neptune and has also mentioned potentially missing the Festival, but with the rain forecast it is hard to see him not lining up and he certainly has plenty of ability. Neptune Trainer Ben Pauling has a nice bunch of novice hurdlers in the yard and he looks likely to be represented in this race by Warwick winner Willoughby Court. Pauling still has the option of running the six-year-old in the Albert Bartlett but is a little concerned that could be a tough test for a horse with such little experience. He was very impressive at Warwick last time and the form has been franked with Gayebury winning since and another of the beaten horses Peregrine Run is a leading fancy for the Coral Cup at the Festival. I suspect he might come up short at the Festival as the Neptune looks a hot race but he likes every inch a chaser in the making. Last week also saw the return of another smart inmate from the Pauling stable in the shape of Le Breuil who ran out a ready winner at Newbury on Friday. Not seen since winning a novice hurdle at Sedgefield in the autumn, he found plenty in the closing stages to see off the well-supported Benatar by nine lengths. A feature of the five-year-old’s performances to date have been how quick he jumps and whilst Cheltenham is likely to come too soon, he looks likely to pick up a nice prize before the end of the season, perhaps at Aintree or Punchestown. Triumph Defi Du Seuil is a warm order for the opening race on Friday but I can’t help but think that given how well he has handled soft ground this season, whether he will be able to reproduce the same sort of form on a sounder surface. If the ground did come up on the quicker side then I think the race has a wide open look to it and I certainly wouldn’t be too keen to take 7/4 about the market leader. Nicky Henderson looks likely to have a few in the race, led by Charli Parcs, who as I reported last week, has come out of his run at Kempton really well. His work has been good since the fall and given how highly Henderson spoke of him before that run, I think he can still be a force in the Triumph. He is also likely to be joined by Soldier in Action who jumped a lot better when getting off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles at Doncaster last time. Rated 105 on the flat, he certainly has the potential to make up into a smart hurdler, but he might just come up short on experience this time around. In truth, I think this could be a race in which we get a big-priced winner and it is therefore interesting that connections have indicated that Dandy Mag is likely to take his chance. The half-brother to Vroum Vroum Mag had no trouble getting off the mark at Gowran last month but I think the general 25/1 price is a fair reflection of his chances. Novice Chasers Arkle There was some bad news for us over the weekend as Kim Bailey confirmed that Charbel will take his chance in the Arkle rather than the JLT on Thursday. Bailey had previously said that he was keen to avoid Altior but is worried that the six-year-old hasn’t been beyond two miles and is not keen to experiment at the Festival. It is a disappointing turn of events for us as he was as short as 10/1 for the JLT in a race which I thought he had a leading chance. He has already come up short against Altior on more than one occasion and I find it hard to see him reversing the form with that rival. It also seems that Cloudy Dream is also going to line up in the Arkle as Malcolm Jefferson confirmed he is likely to have three runners on the first day of the Festival. That seems to rule out a potential crack at the Grand Annual but at least we have the NRNB concession to fall back on with this bet. Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals of the race and although leading hope Min will not be taking part, the yard are likely to be represented by Royal Caviar who schooled well alongside Djakadam at Leopardstown on Sunday. He seemed none the worse for his fall at the same venue at the end of January and could have an outside chance of a place in a race where there isn’t much depth outside the market leader. JLT All eyes were on the ante-post favourite for the JLT Yorkhill as the seven-year-old schooled at Leopardstown alongside Arbre De Vie and Blazer. Ruby Walsh was at pains to settle the gelding behind his stablemates but he hit the first fence pretty hard before taking off a mile before the second fence. He did settle down after that and jumped neatly before cantering for a couple of furlongs to the winning post. There is no doubt that he has plenty of natural ability but there are still question marks about his jumping so he looks a favourite that could be worth taking on. His trainer Willie Mullins is likely to give the seven-year-old another schooling session prior to the Festival to get him right but I think he will be one of the favourites that punters try to take on at the Festival. Meanwhile Noel Meade confirmed on Sunday that his leading Festival hope Disko was in good order. It seems that connections are leaning towards the JLT ahead of the RSA and Meade said he ‘couldn’t be happier’ with the six-year-old. He also reported that leading National Hunt Chase hope A Genie In Abottle was also in rude health ahead of his crack at the opening day of the Festival. RSA Coney Island was ruled out of the Festival last week and also likely to miss the race is Bellshill who fell in a schooling session at Leopardstown on Sunday. Normally when that happens, Willie Mullins gets the jockey to jump back on and pop over a couple of fences but he said that the gelding was a little stiff afterwards so they decided not to take any chances. Following this latest setback, you would have to say he is less likely than ever to head to Cheltenham and if all is well with the seven-year-old, he could come over for Aintree or wait for Punchestown. One who will be lining up in the RSA is Our Kaempfer who also has the option of the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the meeting. However, following his victory at Kempton last month, his trainer doesn’t believe he is sufficiently well-handicapped so is likely to go down the novice route instead. His jumping was much better at Kempton last time but he was third on his only start in a Graded chase earlier in the season and whilst the step up to 3m seems to have brought about improvement, I still think he has a bit to find with the market principals in this race. I mentioned earlier how people had been keen to take on Melon on the preview evening circuit and another who people have been keen to oppose is Might Bite. The eight-year-old took a crashing fall when much the best in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas and we didn’t learn a great deal when he ran out a wide-margin winner at Doncaster last time. He is as short as 2/1 in places for the RSA which does look short for a horse who has had jumping issues in the past and I can see why people are keen to take him on. He could be joined in the race by stablemate Whisper who has enjoyed something of a resurgence this term, winning his last two starts over the larger obstacles. His stamina has proved the difference on both of those occasions and although both those victories came over 2m5f, I see no reason why he won’t relish the step up to 3m. My main concern would be that the two horses he has beaten, Baron Alco and Clan Des Obeaux are hardly leading novices, so perhaps the form isn’t that strong. With rain forecast for the next week or so, it seems more likely that American could take his chance following his victory at Warwick in January. The seven-year-old has looked a natural over fences so far but he isn’t the easiest to keep sound and his trainer Harry Fry has indicated he would only run if there was soft in the going description. The way he jumped and travelled at Warwick seem to suggest that he would be a leading contender for the RSA if he lined up on the day but the conditions would need to be right for him. Misc Races Cross-Country Enda Bolger, who is widely-regarded as the leading trainer in this sphere is likely to be triple handed in the Festival race as he saddles Cantlow, Auvergnat and Colour Squadron. The first named of those is currently the market leader despite suffering defeat at Cheltenham on Trials Day. However it is worth bearing in mind that he was conceding over a stone to the French challenger Urgent De Gregaine on that occasion but come the Festival, the pair will be racing off level weights. Auvergnat was still travelling well when unseating six fences from home in that race and has since gone on to win at Punchestown. There is another JP McManus name to throw into the mix in the shape of Cause Of Causes who has been the subject of market support in recent days. Now around a 6/1 shot for the race, the nine-year-old has won at the last two Festivals but he was far from fluent over the cross-country fences at Cheltenham in January. I am sure he has had plenty of practice in the interim but I would have liked to see a bit more in January to be taking 6/1. However, I think that there could be a bit of value in this market in the shape of Usuel Smurfer who is a general 16/1 shot for the Cross-Country. The nine-year-old was a smart chaser for Shark Hanlon and defied an absence of over a year to finish a close second to On His Own in a point-to-point in January. He had his first start in the Cross-Country sphere at Punchestown at the beginning of February and he ran a fine race to finish second to Auvergnat, beaten just over a length at the line. He was conceding 7lb to the winner that day before you take the winner’s rider into account and with that cross-country experience under his belt I think he can run well at the Festival. He will get a pull in the weights with Auvergnat at Cheltenham and having run so well over the cross-country fences at the first attempt last time, I think he has an each-way chance. Bumper The bumper isn’t the easiest race to get a handle on as a lot of the time, the form lines tend not to overlap. Willie Mullins has already had one leading hope ruled out in the shape of Getabird but he could have an able deputy in Carter McKay who has made no mistake on his first two bumper starts. He saw off a smart performer in West Coast Time at Naas last time but the time of that race was slow and I think his dominance may have been exaggerated by the way the race was run. It is also worth noting that whilst Willie Mullins has a good record in the race, it is often not the most fancied who fares best, so you won’t see me taking 3/1. On this side of the Irish Sea, the form of the Newbury bumper a couple of weeks ago in which Daphne Du Clos got the better of Western Ryder is probably about the best form on offer. However, Nicky Henderson’s filly has been ruled out of the Festival with a slight problem The runner-up Western Ryder won a valuable bumper at Ascot in December and lost little in defeat behind Daphne Du Clos last time. The pace was steady last time which probably didn’t suit Warren Greatrex’s five-year-old and the stronger pace and the stiff finish at Cheltenham may play more to his strengths. He gets a 6lb pull with Nicky Henderson’s filly in the Festival bumper so may be able to close the gap on that rival. One of the more interesting entries in the race is David Pipe’s Delirant who has yet to run in Britain but already has two bumper wins to his name in France. The latest of those saw him win a Grade 1 bumper at Saint-Cloud in good style, although that was over 1m4f. He has had a number of entries in recent weeks without taking any up and in a recent stable tour, David Pipe said he wasn’t sure if he would go to the Festival. His form is hard to weigh up but he is clearly interesting, in receipt of the four-year-old allowance. I do however prefer the chances of Jessica Harrington’s Someday who overcame a lengthy absence to win a bumper at Leopardstown last month. The five-year-old might have won with a bit more in hand but for jinking at the big screen in the closing stages and although he isn’t flashy, I think he can take a good step forward from that run. He was a close second to Cilaos Emery at last season’s Punchestown Festival and given how that horse has performed subsequently, he clearly has plenty of ability. Horse who began their careers in Ireland have taken all but two of the last sixteen renewals of this race and second season bumper horses have won four of the last five renewals. Jessica Harrington is no stranger to success in this race having won it with Cork All Star in 2007 and if he takes his chance, I think he could run a big race. Handicaps Since the weights have come out, I have had a look through all of the handicaps and whilst I won’t be analysing each of the races, there are a number of horses who stood out to me in different races which I have detailed below. Ultima In the first handicap of the meeting, the first one which caught the eye was The Druids Nephew who won this race two years ago and runs here off a similar mark this time around. He ran a couple of good races last term, most notably in the Grimthorpe Chase behind The Last Samuri and the bet365 Gold at Sandown in April but has been given some slack by the handicapper since then. I wouldn’t be too concerned by his modest showing at Ascot in December as he tends to need his first run of the season. His trainer has already proved himself to be a fine target trainer and he was pretty bullish when speaking about this horse at a recent media day. “He won the race off 146 two years ago and is back off 146. We think he’s every bit as good, if not better, and he’s in great form,” he said. He clearly has a chance on his old form and I think he is definitely one to keep on side. Another who I thought was interesting at the weights was Martello Tower although it is worth noting that he has a few entries and he is far from certain to take this engagement up. Former Festival winners have a good record in this race as do novices and he has been tried pretty highly so far over the larger obstacles. He was fourth in Grade 1 company over Christmas behind the likes of Our Duke, Coney Island and Disko and I think a mark of 144 is workable. It is worth highlighting that is some 6lb below his hurdles mark and with the rain forecast in the next week, he could get the safe ground that he is after. He could well head elsewhere but I think he has a chance at the weights and is worth a small each-way bet with the NRNB concession. Coral Cup The Coral Cup is one of the most competitive races of the week but one man with a better record than most is Gordon Elliott who has won two of the last six renewals. He has a number of potential candidates for this race but in Automated, he looks to have a very good chance. The six-year-old won a valuable handicap at Navan in December for which he went up 10lb and he has been given an extra few pounds by the British handicapper. However, there are a number of patterns going in his favour, nine of the last 14 winners had won their previous start, 10 of the last 11 winners came from the first seven in the market and none of the last 12 winners had run in the last 31 days. He has clearly been laid out for this race following his Navan success and I think he has a leading chance for a yard who have already had a number of high-profile handicap successes this term. Another Gordon Elliott horse who I thought was interesting if running in any of the handicaps at the meeting is Brelade, who has entries in the Coral Cup, County and Martin Pipe as well as the Neptune. The five-year-old was second in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and was also placed in Grade 1 company in the Deloitte last time. On both of those occasions he wasn’t beaten too far and his handicap mark looks fair enough on what he has done so far. He could miss the Festival entirely but I think he is worth sticking in your tracker and backing if he does take his chance in one of the handicaps. Brown Advisory Plate In the Plate, there is no doubt that David Pipe and Venetia Williams are the trainers to follow having won six of the last ten winners between them. Both have a number of entries in at the moment so final declarations could be crucial but there are a couple who deserve a mention. In the Pipe team, I think that Starchitect could be the most interesting having won one of his first three starts over the larger obstacles. His jumping has improved with each of his three runs to date and having run behind the likes of A Hare Breath and Baron Alco on his first two starts, he was far from disgraced. He had plenty in hand at Ayr last time but he has been running on soft ground all winter and his hurdles form suggests that he will improve for a sounder surface. The blinkers that he has worn over hurdles and on the flat have also been absent of late and most importantly, his chase mark is currently 7lb lower than his hurdles mark. He won over 2m5f over hurdles in May so I think he is worth trying at this trip and he looks the most likely of the Pipe entries. He is also towards the head of the market for the Grand Annual for which he would be interesting for the same reason, but I think he is worth an each-way bet here with the NRNB concession. I mentioned earlier that Gordon Elliott was a man worth following in handicaps and it appears the vibes about Diamond King in this race are pretty strong. He has been highly touted by both Elliott and Davy Russell at recent preview evenings and having won the Coral Cup at last year’s Festival, it is easy to see why he has attracted interest in the market. One final one to mention is Colin Tizzard’s Sizing Codelco whose trainer believes has a leading chance in this contest. The eight-year-old ran well behind Top Notch in a Graduation Chase at Ascot in December and his trainer believes he just failed to stay the trip over 3m 2f last time. He has been dropped a couple of pounds for that run but he shaped well for a long way and if it was the trip that beat him, he would have to come into the mix back in trip. Bets THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (Ultima) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) As I mentioned earlier, I think in terms of the handicap mark on his old form I think he has a leading chance in the Ultima. His trainer is a fine target trainer and I think he has a good each-way chance in the opening handicap of the Festival. MARTELLO TOWER (Ultima) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (Skybet) (4 places) This one is a little bit more speculative in that I haven’t heard his trainer mention this as a target but he was given an entry and I think following the weights being published, his connections could be tempted. He is potentially well-handicapped on his hurdles form and with the chance of rain in the next week, I think he is worth a small bet at around the 20/1 mark. AUTOMATED (Coral Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) Gordon Elliott has the potential to have his best Festival yet and I think this is likely to be one of his leading hopes for the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Despite his rise in the weights for his win at Navan before Christmas, he could still have a bit in hand on the handicapper and I think he has been laid out for this race. USUEL SMURFER (Cross Country) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (SkyBet) Alan Fleming’s nine-year-old made a fine start to his cross country career when second to Auvergnat at Punchestown and the conditions of the Cheltenham race mean that he gets a pull in the weights with that rival. A pretty smart handicap chaser in the not too distant past, he looked a natural over the cross-country fences and in the absence of a real stand out in this year’s renewal, I think he could run well at a big price. SOMEDAY (Bumper) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Ladbrokes, Coral) Much like the Cross Country race, there doesn’t look to be a real standout performer in the bumper division and for all the favourite has been impressive on his first two starts, I think he is short enough. Jessica Harrington has won the race in the past and I don’t think we have seen the best of Someday yet, who won at Leopardstown last time. There were a few fancied horses in that race and having chased home another smart performer in Cilaos Emery last Spring, I think he can take a big step forward from his reappearance and run well. STARCHITECT (Brown Advisory Plate) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) The final advised bet is David Pipe’s novice in the Brown Advisory Plate who has the potential to leave his current chase form behind now stepping into handicap company. He does have the option of also running in the Grand Annual but the Pipe yard have a good record in this race and this well-handicapped six-year-old looks worth an each-way bet at the prices. Ante-Post Portfolio JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred) CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) (likely non-runner) CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet) NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway) WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet) MOON RACER (Champion Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (bet365) KOTKIKOVA (Mares Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power) (likely non-runner) SUB LIEUTENANT (Ryanair Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365) BARNEY DWAN (Pertemps Final) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places) FOREST BIHAN (Arkle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) CHAMPERS ON ICE (National Hunt Chase) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (Neptune) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) DISKO (RSA Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral) (likely non-runner) DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Triumph) – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (bet365, SkyBet) (likely non-runner) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (Kim Muir) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) CLOUDY DREAM (Grand Annual) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (SkyBet) (4 places) (likely non-runner) DIVIN BERE (Fred Winter) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Paddy Power, SkyBet) (4 places) THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (Ultima) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) MARTELLO TOWER (Ultima) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (Skybet) (4 places) AUTOMATED (Coral Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) USUEL SMURFER (Cross Country) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (SkyBet) SOMEDAY (Bumper) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Ladbrokes, Coral) STARCHITECT (Brown Advisory Plate) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places) Jimmy2shoes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Phew, feel tired now reading all that beaker1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 @beaker1You deserve an Oscar for all that mate! Seriously good stuff. beaker1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said: @beaker1You deserve an Oscar for all that mate! Seriously good stuff. It can still work both ways but beaker is a She LLP Loyal Lady Punter beaker1 and Sir Puntalot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thank you very much .. I will update the results after the festival Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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