Cheltenham Tuesday - 14th March 2017

[richard-westwood]

25 minutes ago, vikki37 said:

 

Champers on ice should be still running? He is still available on betvictor and bet365 but at 8/1.

Hes not showing in racecards so unless he needs some to drop out still ...he is entered for other races too and yes i dont like theway bookies keep taking bets on horses that arent gonna run in that race ...hes not showing on racing post so i presume hes out 

[richard-westwood]

3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Hes not showing in racecards so unless he needs some to drop out still ...he is entered for other races too and yes i dont like theway bookies keep taking bets on horses that arent gonna run in that race ...hes not showing on racing post so i presume hes out 

Running in 450 ...8/1 

[vikki37]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Running in 450 ...8/1 

Sorry about the French at the top, no idea what happened there. It really confuses me when the horse is suddenly in a different race on the same day. Will you still be taking Champers?

Edited March 14, 2017 by vikki37

[richard-westwood]

130 chelt 

I always go for the fastest horses in this and they always run well so this year I have joint top rated crack mome and ballyandy ....both are a lityle clear on the clock so I'm hoping for good runs .....

Ballyandy 20 pts win 100/30 bet365

Crack mime 20pts win 11/1 stanj

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, vikki37 said:

Sorry about the French at the top, no idea what happened there. It really confuses me when the horse is suddenly in a different race on the same day. Will you still be taking Champers?

No I think 4 miles is too far ....for that price ...one to watch for me 

[robertob]

3.30 Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle 

No superstar of the previous years in the race this time around, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. In fact this incredibly open renewal of the Champion Hurdle has added intrigue given the entry of Buveur D’air who quickly established himself as a leading chance in recent weeks.

Favouite Yanworth has done little wrong and it’s fair to assume there is more to come. The likely frantic pace will suit him and he is a fair favourite, the one they all have to beat. Yet I’m far from excited and am not sure if he is really that much better than some others in this field.

I want to see that he’s a Champion Hurdle horse, given connections also had a good look at the Stayers Hurdle because Yanworth surely is not the most explosive hurdler the world has seen.

The chances of Buveur D’air may hinge on the weather. Rain, to be precise, is needed. If it would arrive he may even go off as favourite, I imagine.Whether that is warranted remains to be seen, but it’s fair to say he’s more home over hurdles than fences and connections did well to change the plan.

Nonetheless, the seemingly underappreciated horse is Petit Mouchoir. Admittedly, I’m not a huge fan of the Gigginstown inmate and the critics are right in saying we don’t know what his form is worth. He seems a solid, but not spectacular individual, one who hasn’t beaten anything of note, yet.

On the positive side: Petit Mouchoir seems a better horse this season. He stepped up his game, has two Grade 1’s to his name and in the end he can’t do much more than beating what#s put in front of him. And let’s not forget he was only narrowly beaten by Buveur D’air at Aintree last season. Both horses may have improved since then, but given all we know, there is likely to be very little between the two.

That means 9/1 seems way overpriced. The same could be argued for progressive Brian Power to some extend, while Moon Racer is the dark horse. All in all an intriguing contest, but at given prices and form it’s hard to argue that Petit Mouchoir is not worth a punt in my mind.

Petit Mouchoir @ 9/1 Bet365

[robertob]

Backed a couple in advance, though prices may have changed to some extend in the meantime: 

1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle

It all kicks off with the Supreme – a surprisingly wide open affair this year. No outstanding star in the line up to get us off to a flyer. Though Willie Mullins saddles the favourite yet again.

However I’m  not yet convinced by Melon – though he might well be the real deal – his lack of experience is a big concern, particularly at a short enough price in a race with plenty of substance and alternatives.

Experience and a bit of stamina usually counts for allot in the Supreme and with that in mind two bigger prices come on to my radar:

There is Nicky Henderson’s progressive River Wylde on one hand. An impressive Grade 2 winner at Kempton in February, he’s shaping like an ideal candidate with the likely decent ground sure to suit.

A point to point recruit, he’s been improving all the time since moving to the Henderson yard, resulting in three wins on the bounce, culminating in a slick performance in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

He beat Elgin that day, mainly because he jumped better. Nonetheless the runner-up is the other one I like here. Not as slick,  bit more workmanlike, but a fine second behind classy Neon Wolf earlier this year, he’s also not stopping to improve with each run and the Alan King yard is quite upbeat about a big run.

Both should be able to outran their price if they are able to keep up with the frantic pace that’s sure to bet set early on.

Selection: 
5pts win – River Wylde @ 10/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Elgin @ 25/1 Bet365

......

4.10: Mares’ Hurdle

Surprise, surprise! Both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag locking horns in the Mares’ – who’d thought that?! The latter one sets the standard as the convincing winner of this race last year, but she was clearly not right when last seen at Doncaster and whether she is quite 100% after the virus infection is up for debate.

Fair to say that on all evidence plus factoring in potential improvement Limini is the correct favourite. She could have run in the Champion Hurdle and would have not looked out of place there. So she has a serious chance in this race. But I wonder: should she be three or four times the price of Apples Jade? I argue: absolutely not.

The two met last month and Limini won well, but one could argue Apples Jade was back from a small break and will come on for run – probably more so than Limini will. Gorden Elliott’s mare remains to be lightly raced with further progress far from impossible

It’s also been noted by Wullie Mullins that Limini is quite hard on herself, meaning each race takes its toll on her. I wonder whether a big performance as the one she produced only three weeks ago might haven take more out of her than ideal?

All in all at the given prices I do prefer Gordon Elliott’s progressive five year old.

Selection: 
5pts win – Apples Jade @ 5/1 PP

……..

4.50: National Hunt Novices’ Chase

Every man and his dog seems to be on A Genie In Abottle and that makes perfect sense. But there is no juice left in the price, so looking elsewhere is worthwhile.

Highly speculative and risky, still I like to put forward the case of Tiger Roll. A shaky character, who clearly didn’t quite life up to the promise of his early career. But on his day he can be a classy individual and least we forget he used to be a Triumph Hurdle winner back in the day. Now lining up in a 4 miler seems odd and he may well be found out for stamina, if not for class.

His rating entitles him to have a decent shout, though, and he put a string of decent performances together over the last six races, including a success in the Munster National.

This is a different kettle of fish, but he goes well on decent ground and performed admirably off a break in the past, so it would not surprise me if he outruns his price tag.

Selection:
5pts win – Tiger Roll @ 20/1 Bet365

……..

5.30: Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

Big field and you can easily make a case for at least a handful of these. But two stand out in terms of potentially being well handicapped: Itsafreebee is an obvious one. Third in the Neptune behind Yorkhill last year, he’s been not reaching those heights over fences yet but a handy drop in the weights and potentially decent ground should ensure he has a huge chance.

From Ireland I like the chance of Tully East. I feel he he hasn’t been seen to his best in his last two starts, probably with this race and his handicap mark in mind. He won over fences back in December and ran really well in the Martin Pipe last year.

Selection:
5pts win – Itsafreebee @ 12/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Tully East @ 20/1 Bet365

[arsenalfh]

Cheltenham Festival: Day 1 Preview

In the Supreme I like Melon. I think it's a weak enough renewal and he'll be underrated because of his inexperience and form when he's probably jumped more hurdles than any of them and is the one Mullins clearly thinks is the best. Mullins is just unreal at prepping them at home and I think it's underrated angle by the betting public. Just look at his record getting horses to the festival to win off long breaks, his record with horses first time out and off long breaks. Whatever he does at home works and I reckon Melon has the beating of the Irish horses. I never really liked Ballyandy who is probably the best on form who only has a sole win over hurdles and looks slow a lot of the time.

Forest Bihan looks the pick each way or without Altior in the Arkle. Improving and was impressive when absolutely flying home winning at Doncaster last time. He beat a few of his rivals tomorrow there and with lots of front running types that might burn each other out fighting Altior so his hold up running style is another positive.

The Ultima Handicap Chase could go to Holywell who has an unbelievable record at the festival no matter how poor his form is coming into Cheltenham. He's won this, the Pertemps and ran a cracker in the Gold Cup before so should go well. Can't resist backing Junction Fourteen at a massive price after his run at Ascot last time. That was back in autumn but he certainly showed he stays and unexposed over this trip with Leighton Aspell taking over he may improve a few pounds. Lavelle also has a terrific record getting this horse ready fresh so he has a chance provided they don't go too quick up front trying to get position on the sharper old course.

Yanworth has the 2nd best piece of form in the Champion Hurdle and should be suited by the stiffer test. Buveur D'air, Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir are progressive but haven't achieved all that much. The latter could well be a triple Grade 1 winner but Footpad got pretty close to him last time, I don't think Nichols Canyon likes Leopardstown and beating Irving in the Fighting Fifth is not Champion Hurdle form.

You would have to be mental to back Moon Racer I think. Miles off what is required and is a novice who comes here off a massive break.

Yanworth might just be too good for My Tent Or Yours but his jumping may put him on the back foot before staying on so he's no betting proposition at 5/2. My Tent Or Yours run last year behind Annie Power is the best form on offer and Henderson always has him spot on for this day so it would be no surprise to see him spring back to form. Aidan Coleman's softer riding style may suit him more than Geraghty's which is another positive and I think he'll be very hard to keep out of the frame.

In the Mares Hurdle I reckon Limini will be tough to beat. Very impressive last day visually and on the clock and is still relatively unexposed unlike Vroum Vroum Mag and Apples Jade who look like they've reached their level. Can't see anything else getting in the frame and Limini will probably be tough to beat.

1.30 Cheltenham - Melon @ 10/3 Stan James

2.10 Cheltenham - Forest Bihan e/w @ 22/1 Bet365

2.50 Cheltenham - Holywell e/w @ 11/1 Bet365 & Junction Fourteen e/w @ 50/1 BetVictor

3.30 Cheltenham - My Tent Or Yours e/w @ 20/1 BetBright

4.10 Cheltenham - Limini @ 7/4 Betway

 

[bartrum]

8 hours ago, robertob said:

Backed a couple in advance, though prices may have changed to some extend in the meantime: 

1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle

It all kicks off with the Supreme – a surprisingly wide open affair this year. No outstanding star in the line up to get us off to a flyer. Though Willie Mullins saddles the favourite yet again.

However I’m  not yet convinced by Melon – though he might well be the real deal – his lack of experience is a big concern, particularly at a short enough price in a race with plenty of substance and alternatives.

Experience and a bit of stamina usually counts for allot in the Supreme and with that in mind two bigger prices come on to my radar:

There is Nicky Henderson’s progressive River Wylde on one hand. An impressive Grade 2 winner at Kempton in February, he’s shaping like an ideal candidate with the likely decent ground sure to suit.

A point to point recruit, he’s been improving all the time since moving to the Henderson yard, resulting in three wins on the bounce, culminating in a slick performance in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

He beat Elgin that day, mainly because he jumped better. Nonetheless the runner-up is the other one I like here. Not as slick,  bit more workmanlike, but a fine second behind classy Neon Wolf earlier this year, he’s also not stopping to improve with each run and the Alan King yard is quite upbeat about a big run.

Both should be able to outran their price if they are able to keep up with the frantic pace that’s sure to bet set early on.

Selection: 
5pts win – River Wylde @ 10/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Elgin @ 25/1 Bet365

......

4.10: Mares’ Hurdle

Surprise, surprise! Both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag locking horns in the Mares’ – who’d thought that?! The latter one sets the standard as the convincing winner of this race last year, but she was clearly not right when last seen at Doncaster and whether she is quite 100% after the virus infection is up for debate.

Fair to say that on all evidence plus factoring in potential improvement Limini is the correct favourite. She could have run in the Champion Hurdle and would have not looked out of place there. So she has a serious chance in this race. But I wonder: should she be three or four times the price of Apples Jade? I argue: absolutely not.

The two met last month and Limini won well, but one could argue Apples Jade was back from a small break and will come on for run – probably more so than Limini will. Gorden Elliott’s mare remains to be lightly raced with further progress far from impossible

It’s also been noted by Wullie Mullins that Limini is quite hard on herself, meaning each race takes its toll on her. I wonder whether a big performance as the one she produced only three weeks ago might haven take more out of her than ideal?

All in all at the given prices I do prefer Gordon Elliott’s progressive five year old.

Selection: 
5pts win – Apples Jade @ 5/1 PP

……..

4.50: National Hunt Novices’ Chase

Every man and his dog seems to be on A Genie In Abottle and that makes perfect sense. But there is no juice left in the price, so looking elsewhere is worthwhile.

Highly speculative and risky, still I like to put forward the case of Tiger Roll. A shaky character, who clearly didn’t quite life up to the promise of his early career. But on his day he can be a classy individual and least we forget he used to be a Triumph Hurdle winner back in the day. Now lining up in a 4 miler seems odd and he may well be found out for stamina, if not for class.

His rating entitles him to have a decent shout, though, and he put a string of decent performances together over the last six races, including a success in the Munster National.

This is a different kettle of fish, but he goes well on decent ground and performed admirably off a break in the past, so it would not surprise me if he outruns his price tag.

Selection:
5pts win – Tiger Roll @ 20/1 Bet365

……..

5.30: Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

Big field and you can easily make a case for at least a handful of these. But two stand out in terms of potentially being well handicapped: Itsafreebee is an obvious one. Third in the Neptune behind Yorkhill last year, he’s been not reaching those heights over fences yet but a handy drop in the weights and potentially decent ground should ensure he has a huge chance.

From Ireland I like the chance of Tully East. I feel he he hasn’t been seen to his best in his last two starts, probably with this race and his handicap mark in mind. He won over fences back in December and ran really well in the Martin Pipe last year.

Selection:
5pts win – Itsafreebee @ 12/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Tully East @ 20/1 Bet365

Wow, i wish id read this earlier..... great selections with very good write ups. hope you backed them all. 

[robertob]

Thank you sir, I did back them indeed - thankfully. Well done yourself; I believe you had a smashing day too!

[Jimmy2shoes]

15 hours ago, robertob said:

Thank you sir, I did back them indeed - thankfully. Well done yourself; I believe you had a smashing day too!

Cracking Write Up's robertob  great stuff