August 15 - August 21

[CzechPunter]

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR TODAY:
CINCINNATI RISKE-FLINK @1.25 ladbrokes/willhill
expect it to be an easy win for the favorite Riske after winning 2 qualifying matches.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Andre Ghem to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.67 with Skybet

Ghem is one of those hard-working journeymen who are really hard to put aside, while Marterer is on a bad run at the moment, having lost six sets in a row against opposition he shouldn't be crushed by. He's a decent Challenger prospect, but he's not on Ghem's level yet and his form is very suspicious as well, so I'll go with the Brazilian that managed to upset Cervantes-Huegun last week.

[CzechPunter]

Back Elias Ymer to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.72 with Bet365

Can't pass these odds now that they're out to 1.72, as I rate Ymer as the more promising player of the two. He's had a slump this year, no doubts about that, but he's still better than Kolar, who hasn't beaten anyone as good as Ymer outside home tournaments. This is far from a home tournament for him and Ymer should like the conditions given that he won two good matches here last year, so I'm happy to back him.

[CzechPunter]

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Caroline Garcia at 1.91 with Coral

First of all, I think that there's a very small difference between the two quality-wise, but what makes me like this bet a lot is Garcia's current status. She's just losing everywhere she goes and the poor Olympics performance won't do her any good either in my opinion, as she went 1-3 across three disciplines, with her lone win coming against the out-of-form Pereira. Gavrilova, on the other hand, is performing on a fairly consistent level, so I'd give her some sort of an edge here.

[CzechPunter]

Back Nicolas Mahut (+4.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.85 with BetVictor

Too big a line in my opinion, even though Bautista-Agut is the much more complex player and all that jazz. That said, Mahut has been superb in the singles lately and he's covered this line in all 6 of their previous matches (!), so backing him on the games handicap looks like the bet to me. Bautista-Agut also spent slightly more time than Mahut in the Olympics and that's obviously hardly an advantage for him.

[CzechPunter]

Back Andrea Petkovic to beat Lucie Safarova at 1.80 with Coral

There's a decent chance that this isn't even going to happen, but I'd fancy Petkovic big time if it does. She's already practised and played in Cincinnati, while Safarova was still in Rio on Sunday, celebrating her bronze medal in the women's doubles. That should have a positive effect on her in the long term, but I think that fatigue will prevail in the shorter term, especially since she was a bit ill during the Olympics. Petko also leads the H2H 4-3 - it's not particularly important, but it does show that the match-up doesn't have any hidden demons for her.

[CzechPunter]

Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Taylor Fritz at 2.20 with BetVictor

Fritz might be a great prospect for the future, but to have him as the favourite here looks odd to me considering that Youzhny has done little wrong lately. He's also already played a few matches in Cincinnati, while Fritz is yet to make an appearance in the event - and, well, he really hasn't done all that much since the mid-point of the season. Youzhny is hungry for success at the moment and I don't see him as the underdog here at all.

[CzechPunter]

Back Kateryna Bondarenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.50 with Ladbrokes

Mladenovic is in such a mess at the moment form-wise and her Olympics were shambles from the mental point of view, so I'm not sure that she'll be able to deliver a good performance against Bondarenko, who's had no Rio duties to worry about. Instead, she's travelled to Cincinnati early for the qualifiers, played two decent matches and is ready to go - and that alone makes her a very live underdog in my opinion. With Mladenovic losing against Kudryavtseva in a similar situation before the Olympics, she could easily lose against Bondarenko after them.

[janekda]

M.Zverev - F.Lopez 3.0

Zverev has good wins against dangerous opponents in Cincy in Q (Mannarino, Marchenko). He played with lefty Mannarino sho he's prepared for another lefty.  Lopez was last week in final and it could be worse for him to prepare for Cincy. Their last match was not so clear as result shows. For me is fair odd about 2.5 for Zverev

[four-leaf]

Louisa Chirico to beat Timea Babos for a 7/10 stake at 4.00 with bet365

I'll take Louisa any day here against this out of form Timea who just does'nt play very good nowadays. She's doing unforced errors for fun and the only thing she does good is her slicing and it isn't enough to win matches. I'm taking Louisa here because of her decent level and she's got the home advantage and it's not smart to go for a big favourite like Timea here when she's making so many unforced errors. When Timea played Jelena Ostapenko in Florianopolis quarter there where 9 straight breaks of serve before Jelena Ostapenko finally won the first set and the only thing taking Timea through was her slice and Jelena Ostapenkos huge number of unforced errors.

[janekda]

9 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Louisa Chirico to beat Timea Babos for a 7/10 stake at 4.00 with bet365

I'll take Louisa any day here against this out of form Timea who just does'nt play very good nowadays. She's doing unforced errors for fun and the only thing she does good is her slicing and it isn't enough to win matches. I'm taking Louisa here because of her decent level and she's got the home advantage and it's not smart to go for a big favourite like Timea here when she's making so many unforced errors. When Timea played Jelena Ostapenko in Florianopolis quarter there where 9 straight breaks of serve before Jelena Ostapenko finally won the first set and the only thing taking Timea through was her slice and Jelena Ostapenkos huge number of unforced errors.

You are right. Babos has very bad serve last a few weeks.

[WWWYKI!]

A lot of breaks in the Anne bogdan match at Florianopolis also

[four-leaf]

Daria Gavrilova to beat Elina Svitolina for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with bet365

Gavrilova has beaten Svitolina twice by 2-0 in sets on hard court in the Hopman Cup at the beginning of the year and on clay in Madrid with and last year Svitolina won by 2-1 and 6- 4 in the decider so then it was even also and now another match between the two.

Svitolina is not as good as the results against Serena at the Olympics says. Serena had one of her poorer days only. It wasn't Svitolina who played the tennis of her life. Match after she was outclassed by Petra Kvitova to come down to earth. Now maybe she did not play for very long in Rio so it is not likely to affect very much but to go to Cincinnati and meet Gavrilova who played just fine yesterday does not bode well. Gavrilova had not a single break point against her during the game against Carolina Garcia. Maybe Svitolina can create more chances than Garcia did but it is ridiculus how good Gavrilova played yesterday.

Feels clearly worth investing in Gavrilova who already recorded a win on the surface of Cincinnati.

 

 

[janekda]

Bondarenko - Mladenovic 4.7

There is bigger possibility to turn match as for me. I has aggreed with odds on Bondarenko before match.

 

Golubic - Nara 2.05

Is this odd only because of LL in Cincy? I've prized Golubic as bigger favourite with 1.7. Golubic dislikes to play with hard hitters who controls thei aggression (opposite are crazy hard hitters like Kvitova, Giorgi). Nara has lost 5 of last 6 when priced as Favourite ($1.50 to $1.999). And she has no really good results last time.

[janekda]

And sorry for M.Zverev it was uggly tip but sometimes it's better than lost very close

[CzechPunter]

Back Mikhail Youzhny (+4.5) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.83 with Paddy Power

The handicap line has been set at +4.5 here and that looks a bit high to me in all fairness after seeing Youzhny crush Fritz in the previous round. The Russian might be an ageing force, but he still has the fire burning inside and he's on a real roll in Cincinnati, having won six sets in a row against decent opposition. Nishikori is a top 10 player and all that jazz, but the Olympics must have taken something from him, so chances are that he's not going to demolish Youzhny here.

[CzechPunter]

Back Taro Daniel to beat Matteo Donati at 1.72 with Bet365

One for me in the Challengers on Thursday, as I really like Daniel's chances against Donati. Put simply, he's a level or two above the Italian, so the only thing speaking against him here is his involvement in Rio - and the switch from hard to clay and from Brazil to Italy can be quite tricky indeed. However, he managed to win against a fairly tricky opponent in the first round and he's then had a day off to recover and prepare for this, so I think that he'll be good to go.

[janekda]

I hope who bet on Golubič with me, backed her when she served for match with 5.5. Golubič is my favourite player last year and I expected she improved her serve. But Gstaat was exception as I saw yesterday.

Edited August 18, 2016 by janekda

[CzechPunter]

Back Marin Cilic to beat Borna Coric at 1.44 with Skybet

Decent enough price for Cilic to take this outright in my opinion, Coric a bit over-rated just because he's won against Rafa. A great result, but Nadal just ran out of energy in that one, so don't take it too seriously. Cilic, on the other hand, had to play and win a really competitive match against Berdych, so he's in a good form at the moment. When the two met last year, Cilic won 6-1 6-2 - it's probably going to be tighter this time around, but I wouldn't classify the youngster's chances as solid.

[CzechPunter]

Back Taro Daniel to beat Gianluigi Quinzi at 1.40 with Bet365

Daniel for me as the pick for Saturday, as he should be able to take advantage of the free day to recover and get himself ready for the Quinzi challenge. Quinzi has already upset Leonardo Mayer and Elias Ymer here, but, from what I've seen, it's been more about those players performing poorly and choking at crucial points than about him playing so well. In any case, Daniel is better than both those players at the moment and he should have no acclimatization issues after so many days, so he should get the job done without much fuss imo

[four-leaf]

Karolina Pliskova to beat Garbiñe Muguruza for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with bet365

Karolina has beaten Garbiñe on hard twice last season in Dubai and Indian Wells and lost once on clay in Roland Garros, Garbiñes best surface is by far clay and hard seems as her worst since she is constantly unable to get any better results on it except last season when she won Beijing. However, she went out to Monica Puig in the olympics in straight sets 6-1 6-1, horrible and that was on hard. I have no doubts that Karolina who's been serving well this week can serve her way to her third big final here.

[CzechPunter]

Back Karolina Pliskova (+4.5) to beat Angelique Kerber at 1.67 with Paddy Power

These two have met on six occasions and Pliskova has covered the 4.5 games line on five of them, with the very first meeting - back in 2011 - being the only exceptions. She's been playing really well so far in Cincinnati and she hasn't played in Rio, so she should be fresh and ready to go, while Kerber has to face two obstacles here - not only will there be a lot of pressure, as she can gain the #1 spot with a win here, but she also might be a bit tired after losing in Rio and then playing quite a few matches here. The German is still the favourite, but I fancy Pliskova to cover the handicap.