Tuesday Racing (Punchestown Day 1)

[BillyHills]

Champion Chase 

...........The British interest is from Gods Own and Simonsig and are worth looking at for different reasons. Gods Own (10/1 Bet365) is trained by Tom George and he comes here on the back of a fortunate victory at Aintree. He was the horse who took advantage of Vautour’s demise and came home 2 ¾ lengths clear of Al Ferof. Prior to that he was 4th to Sprinter Sacre at the Festival and would have been closer but for a bad blunder two out. He was 5 lengths behind Special Tiara and I fancy him to close that gap on a track that he obviously acts on having won the Ryanair here a couple of years ago.

Selection: 

Gods Own EW @ 10/1 Bet365

 

Full Preview

 

 

[arsenalfh]

Liking the look of Gods Own myself. I love Vautour but he's such a hard horse to train, missed Punchestown last year and was hardly impressive the year before. He has had to take in Aintree in the meantime this year and off a fall he's ripe to be taken on.

[BillyHills]

Champion Novice Chase

Verdict:

A cracking renewal on the cards here and a race where half a dozen of the runners have claims of some sort. The favourite Outlander is solid enough but I’m just a little worried that he’s had a couple of hard races lately and not all of the Mullins runners have been 100%. Zabana has yet to show he can win this grade and I think Rule The World would do well to run up to form after his recent hard race at Aintree. I’m left with Henryville and Noble Endeavor and I’m just siding the Harry Fry runner as he was as good as these over hurdles and is a very promising chaser in the making.

Selection: Henryville @ 4/1 Coral

 

Full Preview

[beaker1]

3.40 Punchestown – Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup

A glance down the roll of honour for this race sees the name Enda Bolger appear six times in the winning trainer’s column in the last decade. He is well known for his exploits in cross-country chases on both sides of the Irish Sea and has three runners in this race.

Last year’s winner Wish Ye Didn’t returns to the scene of her latest success but arrives here on the back of three below-par runs this term. There isn’t a great deal of encouragement to take from any of those runs but she has shown her best form on good/good to firm ground in the past, so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see her run much better with conditions in her favour. Nina Carberry also prefers her over the other two runners for the stable and she looks likely to play a major role in attempting to defend her title.

The seven-year-old Be Positive could be interesting having been off the track for just about two years and he wasn’t beaten that far over these fences the last time we saw him. Clearly his wellbeing is taken on trust but he won this race by eleven lengths two years ago and must be respected.

Should the Enda Bolger reign of supremacy come to an end then the best hope could be Peter Maher’s Enniskillen who was second in this race last year before finishing third to Josie’s Orders just a few days later. He dead-heated in a point-to-point at Punchestown in February and should the Bolger trio fail to fire, he looks one of the more likely ones to pick up the pieces.

Shortlist

Wish Ye Didn’t

Be Positive

Enniskillen

 
4.20 Punchestown – Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

Yorkhill looks head and shoulders above the rest of the field here and looks likely to deliver a fifth win in eight years for Willie Mullins. Unsurprisingly, the unbeaten hurdler tops the trends as a triple Grade 1 winner who finished in the top two last time out. He drops back in trip here which may well play to his strengths as he did look to be getting tired when winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree earlier this month. With the guarantee that he stays further than this trip, his usual running style will come to the fore in a race that has perennially favoured hold-up horses.

It could well be a 1-2 for Mullins as Petit Mouchoir looks to be next best ahead of Ball d’Arc. Both are Gigginstown runners but the Mullins inmate looks to be the first string on jockey bookings and arrives here on the back of a personal best to finish a close second in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at the Aintree Festival. The latter had been in good form this season and was an eye-catching winner of a Grade 2 at Naas back in February (Don’t Touch It 15 lengths back in third). He was well beaten in seventh in the Top Novices’ Hurdle though and may prefer a bit more cut in the ground.

There is an interesting pair of British contenders although those travelling over the Irish Sea don’t have a particularly strong record in this event. Charbel was an impressive winner of the Supreme Scottish Trial and ran a blinder for a long way in the Supreme itself, only fading out of it late on. On his Musselburgh performance, he looks to have the measure of Brain Power, who was 11 lengths back in second, and still looks to be getting the hang of things at present.

Shortlist

Yorkhill

Petit Mouchoir

4.55 Punchestown – Killashee Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) 2m

This race looks as though it could revolve around the form of the Farmhouse Foods Handicap Hurdle won by Clondaw Warrior at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival. Three of the first five that day are in action with Modem looking the most likely candidate of the trio. The six-year-old ran a blinder in third having made some early mistakes and kept on nicely after the last to only be beaten by three-and- three-quarter lengths. Narrowly in front of him at the finish was The Plan Man who shaped nicely having led or disputed for much of the way. He has gone up 4lb for that performance however and now has a career-high mark to contend with. Art Of Payroll returned to hurdling this year after an in-and-out spell over the larger obstacles and has generally acquitted himself rather well. He has proven competitive off his mark of 132 the last twice, including when fifth at Fairyhouse last month. For all he is consistent, he would seem a risky proposition from a win point of view.

The Brits have had an above average record in this race over the years and their challenge is spearheaded by 2014 winner Cool Macavity from the Nicky Henderson stable. He is only 6lb higher than when winning two years ago and arrives here refreshed from a break, as on that occasion. His last run was most pleasing when landing a handicap hurdle at Plumpton back in September and must have a leading chance off only a 2lb higher mark now.

Another that returns from a break is Copy That who hasn’t been seen since landing a competitive handicap at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. He won in spite of the heavy ground that day and should find conditions here much more to his liking. He does have a 12lb higher mark to contend with here which will be no mean feat to overcome, but he is still very unexposed and could well have the required improvement in the tank.

Automated is another novice worthy of note and wasn’t disgraced when beaten by Ivan Grozny in the Conditionals & Amateurs race at the Aintree Festival. The five-year-old finished well clear of the remainder of the field and showed that a mark of 128 definitely isn’t beyond him. He remains inexperienced in the National Hunt sphere but proved his aptitude for the game on only his fourth hurdles start last time out and is definitely one to consider.

Shortlist

Modem

Cool Macavity

Automated

Copy That

 
5.30 Punchestown – Boylesports Champion Chase (Grade 1)

The decision to redirect Vautour here ahead of a crack at the Punchestown Gold Cup has raised many eyebrows and he sits at the head of the market for this race. One stat he has going in his favour is that French-breds have won five of the last nine runnings as well as the fact that Master Minded, Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre have all justified very short odds in recent years. Aside from his fall at Aintree last time, you have to go back to December 2014 to find his last poor run and history suggests that he is likely to bounce back to form here. On official ratings, he stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field and whilst he might not necessarily have things all his own way, he does appear to be the most likely winner.

However, we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the chances of Special Tiara especially when you consider that ten of the last 13 winners had run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old finished third for the second time in March, having jostled for the lead with Un De Sceaux in the early part of the race. Doubters of Vautour may think that 2m may be on the sharp side for him but there is no doubt that Special Tiara is an out-and-out two miler and he is likely to make life difficult for his rivals here.

God’s Own is also worthy of a mention having won the Ryanair Novice Chase over course and distance in 2014. He finished about five lengths behind Special Tiara in the Champion Chase but benefitted from the fall of Vautour when winning at Aintree a couple of weeks later. He tends to show his best form at this time of year and the drier the ground the better for him.

The last one to consider is Nicky Henderson’s Simonsig who has had a number of problems in recent years, having only raced once since March 2013. He suffered a setback following his reappearance at Aintree in November and whilst on his best form he would have a leading chance, it is hard to know how much ability he retains.

Shortlist

Vautour

Special Tiara

6.05 Punchestown – Goffs Land Rover Bumper INH Flat

In the absence of a runner from the Willie Mullins stable it is interesting that Patrick Mullins has been booked by Nicky Henderson to ride his runner Jenkins. The four-year-old won his only start at Newbury by nine lengths at the beginning of the month and his 60,000 euros price-tag suggests he was highly thought of at the sales. It is also worth noting that Nicky Henderson doesn’t send too many runners over for bumpers at this meeting, so he is definitely worth a second look.

Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd won this last year with Petit Mouchoir and they team up again this year with the once-raced Brelade. He was keen on his first start despite being anchored towards the rear of the field but he picked up smartly in the closing stages to be beaten just half a length by a smart performer in Aspen Colorado. You would hope that he has learnt from that experience and it is significant that Jamie Codd appears to have picked him over the stable’s other runner Hardline, who won a point-to-point by six lengths under Codd in February.

The Noel Meade stable is another which tends to do well at this meeting and they have three representatives in this contest. Two of the three are unraced so it is hard to decipher the pecking order but on jockey bookings at least, Moulin A Vent ridden by Nina Carberry would appear to be the stable first string. The four-year-old was purchased for 55,000 euros in June and looks an interesting contender in the familiar pink silks of Mrs Patricia Hunt.

Shortlist

Brelade

Jenkins

Moulin A Vent

 
6.40 Punchestown – Growise Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1)

With nine runners heading to post for this three miles contest, it is quite difficult to dismiss most of the runners completely. Mouse Morris’ Grand National winner Rule The World drops back into novice company following his Aintree exertions and whilst this would appear an easier task on the face of it, he would probably want the ground to soften up a bit before race time.

Outlander will race in the same colours and comes here having finished a c lose second to Kylemore Lough at Fairyhouse last month. His form suggests that he is up to Grade 1 level over fences but my bigger concern would be the trip as he has never won over further than 2m4f over fences.

The last British-trained winner of the race was Charlie Mann’s Air Force One in 2008 and they have a couple of leading fancies this year, including Harry Fry’s Henryville. The eight-year-old has won two of his three starts over fences, with his only defeat coming outside of novice company in October. He likes the ground on the quicker side so options have been somewhat limited over the winter but he stays well and arrives here fresher than most of his rivals.

One that could be overpriced is Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale who was well fancied to land the 4m chase at Cheltenham last time but just didn’t seem to stay the extreme trip. Prior to that his form had been solid, winning a Grade 2 at Doncaster in December before chasing home Tea For Two in Grade 1 company at Kempton. He wouldn’t have much to find with the market leaders in terms of form and with several of these having question marks at the trip, he could run better than his odds suggest.

Shortlist

Outlander

Henryville

Southfield Royale

 
7.15 Punchestown – Donohue Marquees INH Flat Race

Our finale on day one is another bumper which was won two years ago by Dermot Weld’s smart stayer Forgotten Rules. It is clearly too early to say whether any of this year’s crop turn out to be of that level but all of the top yards are represented.

Willie Mullins saddles Cilaos Emery who was quite a cheap buy for Harold Kirk at 7,200 euros as a foal but any bumper runner from this yard needs respecting. The stable’s last winner of this race was back in 2008 but they have enjoyed a fine season in the Grade 1 bumpers, so they must have a fair idea about where they stand.
Kate Harrington has made a name for herself in these sorts of events in recent years riding for her mother Jessica and the pair team up with Someday here. The four-year-old is a half-brother to bumper winner Lifestyle and cost £14,000 when sold as a foal.

Of those with experience, Blairs Cove and Art Of Supremacy both ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper in March, finishing fifth and sixth respectively. Both had to overcome trouble in running and ran promising races for all that they were well-beaten on the day. I would probably just prefer the chances of the latter considering the stable from which it hails.

Shortlist

Cilaos Emery

Someday

Art Of Supremacy

[richard-westwood]

455 punch 

These festival hcaps are wide open so you may as well go for a bit of value ....first horse that stands out is ancient sands who has collateral lines with the favourite copy that but now has a nice racing weight and no reason he can't close the form with the fav even though he's 3x the price ...looks a decent ew bet ....another that looks good value is the bottom weight and outsidervof the bunch ..to choose ...looked a progressive type last year over jumps and has been running on the flat lately where hes steadily improved approx 10lb ...now returns back to fences and if he can translate that flat improvement back to the jumps he could potentially be well handicapped now and bottom weight can only help ....at 33/1 he's priced far too big ....hes more a 16/1 shot so value aplenty.

Ancient sands 5 pts ew 16/1 bet365

To choose 5 pts ew 33/1 lads

 

[Trotter]

To be honest I don't normally take a lot of notice of the Punchestown Festival........it comes after Cheltenham and Aintree and seems like a bit of an afterthought

But I still haven't got that interested in the Flat this year yet so think I'll watch it this year........well make sure I catch the Grade One races

There's some cracking races !

[BillyHills]

Three For Tuesday

6.05 Punchestown:  Jenkins @ 10/11 Betfair

4.55 Punchestown: Automated EW @ 7/1 Paddy Power

3.35 Nottingham:  Norse Magic EW @ 12/1 Paddy Power

 

Full Previews

[arsenalfh]

Tough enough card to have a bet. I went against Yorkhill in the first Grade 1 as the horse looks a pretty mental animal to be honest! He was pulling like mad at Aintree and idled badly at Cheltenham. I think the Yanworth form is overrated too as his beating of Shantou Village has not worked out and the latter would have hated that ground. Min was the number 1 Mullins novice hurdler going into Cheltenham and I think the Supreme is better form so I took a chance on Charbel who might get an easy time of things out in front.

In the 4.55 Western Boy was a high class novice hurdler who was beaten narrowly by Vautour over course and distance once upon a time. He lost his way over fences the following season and his jumping was very bad when he returned to hurdles. He showed he retained ability when winning off 81 on the flat before placing in 2 big handicaps at Leopardstown and the Curragh of 90 and 93 respectively before taking a break over the winter. He was a massive drifter on his reappearance so probably needed that and it was a far more encouraging all the same beaten 17L by Clondaw Warrior when given an easy enough time of things at the finish. His jumping looked better although he made one mistake down the back and off 129 I think he could be well handicapped if he puts it all together. 25/1 e/w looks good to me.

Haven't had a bet in the Champion Chase yet. I liked Gods Own at first but after watching Simonsig's reappearance again I'll just side with him. Everything went wrong for him that day losing a ton of ground at the start, running keen and I felt he just emptied on ground too soft for him over a trip too far. He showed he retained ability though and back at 2m on good ground I can see him going well with strong vibes from the yard. And I wouldn't want to bet against Nicky getting another one back. Vautour is hard horse to train and he's already been on his game 3 times this year at Kempton, Cheltenham and Aintree so he might be a bit flat here as he has been in the past, especially going right handed.

Don't like the first 3 in the betting in the Grade 1 novice chase so I'll chance Southfield Royale who looks a little overpriced after 3 very good efforts over fences in good company.

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

455 punch 

These festival hcaps are wide open so you may as well go for a bit of value ....first horse that stands out is ancient sands who has collateral lines with the favourite copy that but now has a nice racing weight and no reason he can't close the form with the fav even though he's 3x the price ...looks a decent ew bet ....another that looks good value is the bottom weight and outsidervof the bunch ..to choose ...looked a progressive type last year over jumps and has been running on the flat lately where hes steadily improved approx 10lb ...now returns back to fences and if he can translate that flat improvement back to the jumps he could potentially be well handicapped now and bottom weight can only help ....at 33/1 he's priced far too big ....hes more a 16/1 shot so value aplenty.

Ancient sands 5 pts ew 16/1 bet365

To choose 5 pts ew 33/1 lads

 

How unlucky is that!,,,,......2nd and 3rd ....gutted in a way but fab ew returns probably around 70 pts but oh so near 

[arsenalfh]

Yorkhill and Vautour comfortably beaten.

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:

Yorkhill and Vautour comfortably beaten.

Been a long season ..think they are going over the top now ...great call on gods own everyone who backed 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

How unlucky is that!,,,,......2nd and 3rd ....gutted in a way but fab ew returns probably around 70 pts but oh so near 

As air force blue is a nigh on cert to win the 2000 guineas I'll try a double up of 40 pts on the 1000 guineas....my main angle is Galileo sired horses have never won the guineas so that's a huge stat against the o brien horses so what else can win ....for me turret rocks is the forgotten horse ....he has done nothing wrong winning the may hill (excellent trial )...then being touched off by ballydoyle in a very hot race last race of season ...,.j Bolger doesn't send donkeys to the guineas so 20/1 with willhill  just looks huge and I'd even be happy with 3rd at that price so with o briens poor record its time to take the big guns on 

Use 40 pts today's winning for 20 pt ew on turret rock for 1000 guineas 20/1 will h