Premier League > April 9/10

[Sir Puntalot]

[Sir Puntalot]

[andrewcalo]

Don't shoot me please lol - there is a high likelihood of 5 home wins and a V. good likelihood of 6 this week. I will explain shortly...

[andrewcalo]

Okay, here's how it was worked out...

Here are the total amount of home wins, draws and away wins for the last three seasons...

 

 

12/13

 

H 166   44%

 

D 108   28%

 

A 106   28%

 

 

 

13/14

 

H 179   47%

 

D 78      21%

 

A 123    32%

 

 

 

14/15

 

H 172   45%

 

D 93      25%

 

A 115    30%

 

 

 

AVERAGES ARE:            

 

H 45%  (44-47)       

 

D 25%  (21-28)

 

A 30%   (28-32)

 

 

(Parantheses are the ranges)

 

 

As you can see, the widest variable was the draws – with the tightest margin being home wins.        

 

 

 

This season, here are the results per week, top row Home wins, middle Draws, and bottom Away wins ... far right is the percentages thus far:

 

23137353445444443646362443  6-7  53  2-7  34   =   123 = 39%                   

 

32631324222315432332433331  1-3  23  1-6  24   =   86 = 28%

 

55342433443351235132315336  1-3  34  2-6  52   =   103 = 33%

 

                                                       2            5

 

 

(The two weeks with dashes represent possible results as these two weeks saw 2 and 5 games postponed respectively - games not yet played). 

 

313 games have been played this season, with 67 left to play (7 of which are postponements).

 

 

 

SO...

 

To get to a 44% minimum of home wins, we need 44 more wins at home out of 67…45% would require 49 home wins. Subtracting a maximum of five home wins for the postponed games, we still need to get between 39 and 44 home wins over the final six weeks, which = an average of about 6/7 home wins per week.

 

 

 

But we can see that there have been many draws already this season – the maximum allowed in fact, so can with some safety rely on no more that 28% of the remaining games as draws, which = 19 draws. As there are 7 games in hand because of postponements, there are likely at least two more draws there, leaving 17 over six weeks = 3 a week. 

 

 

 

Finally, there have been way more away wins than average, which is why a very low number would be needed to bring the stats back to within range – we are 3% out right now, so the remaining games yet to be counted – i.e. a maximum of nine or ten away wins, makes sense.

 

 

 

Obviously there’s a lot of give and take here, this is FAR from an exact science, and I've only drawn the set average using the three previous seasons, but bell curves don’t go that far wide (else they wouldn’t look like bells) and you can reasonably rely on the final run of games putting the stats back to somewhere near to where they should be…                  

 

 

 

Of final note – looking at the results each week, i.e. home results, for example, and how they swing back and for, is how you would judge the likely results week by week. I'd say that at least 4 of the final 6 weeks of games will have a high number of home wins.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2016 by andrewcalo
typo

[andrewcalo]

http://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/why-are-so-few-premier-league-teams-winning-home-season#:N1ws1FYPjug86A 

 

This article helps explain the slow start at the beginning of the season ... we should see a lot more home wins now to make up for the lack of team cohesion at the start of the season, and the skills learnt this season re: playing possession-based football.

p.s. As a final caveat, managed to find out home wins, draws and away wins for 11/12 - results support the above lol:

 

H 171  45%

D 93   25%

A 116   31%

 

Edited April 5, 2016 by andrewcalo
Add info

[DannyOxford]

I think that Bournemouth, Chelsea and Leicester look good value this weekend!

[sandrasuzuki]

Southampton vs. Newcastle United

Newcastle is up for another disaster as they go against Southampton this weekend. The struggling club is desperate for a win to retain its Premier League status, yet, the Saints aren’t kind enough to grant their request.

Southampton’s attempt to extend its three-match undefeated streak ended after suffering a narrow loss to the current league leader, Leicester. Nevertheless, the Saints have nothing to be ashamed considering how they put up a good fight against their opponent.

Newcastle’s present form isn’t that spectacular. They are winless in their last six matches and its away performance isn’t that impressive as well.  Their last eight away performance resulted in defeat. They need to be wary of their condition for another loss could eventually formalize their relegation.

 

2-0

[sandrasuzuki]

West Ham vs. Arsenal

An epic and close match is about to take place at Boleyn Ground as Arsenal and West Ham go against each other. West Ham is pretty strong at home, but they haven’t really dominated Arsenal in their last six matches. The Gunners know this well and will surely exploit this aspect to their advantage.

West Ham just needed two points to outrank Manchester United in the qualification spot for the Europa League this season.

The Gunners are fully aware that West Ham will not be easy on them. They know that it is going to be tough and difficult. But the thing is, Arsenal is still enjoying the momentum that it earned from thrashing Watford. Here, the Gunners snatched a 4-0 win, much to the satisfaction of its supporters.

 

1-1

[sandrasuzuki]

Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth

Bournemouth cannot allow over confidence to take over when they go against Aston Villa. The latter may be at the rock bottom part of the table, but they might be  stunned if they aren’t careful. They haven’t won in their recent encounters and there is a chance that this match may soon end in a draw.

With just a little more than five matches left, it seems like Aston Villa is already on its way to the Championship, not unless they can follow a no-lose policy in their remaining games.

Bournemouth stumbled to its second consecutive loss upon during their match against Manchester City. Though they were slapped with a 4-0 defeat, the team is still far from the relegation zone. They are still pretty safe.

 

0-0

[sandrasuzuki]

Sunderland vs. Leicester

The high-flying Leicester may be primed for the season’s title, but they should keep an eye to Sunderland. The Black Cats are fighting for survival and with their determination, it might be too hard to stop them. There’s a chance for the game to end in a stalemate.

It’s never too late for the Black Cats to prove that they have nine lives. All they need to do is see to it that they don’t drop points in their remaining matches.

Right now, the club is on the 18^th spot of the league table and is four points behind safety. But there are still plenty of matches to play. If they show grit and consistency, it wouldn’t be too impossible for them to survive.

Leicester should be wary of Sunderland since the latter have forced them to settle for an even stevn finish not just once, but thrice. Considering what Sunderland is going through right now, there’s a chance that they can indeed, pull off a draw.

 

1-1

[sandrasuzuki]

Tottenham vs. Manchester United

With their major interests at stake, expect a close fight from Tottenham and Manchester United as they both pursue a stronger finish this season. United shows a higher winning possibility, but expect Tottenham to make their opponent’s life difficult at White Hart Lane.

Tottenham is aware that Arsenal is just waiting for the right time to attack them. Its one-point lead over the Gunners doesn’t ensure that they will be finishing as the season’s runner-up since there are still many matches left.

Tottenham is aware that Arsenal is just waiting for the right time to attack them. Its one-point lead over the Gunners doesn’t ensure that they will be finishing as the season’s runner-up since there are still many matches left.

The team can draw inspiration from their narrow win against the aggressive Everton and from the previously mentioned result of their past encounters against Tottenham. 

1-2 

[StevieDay1983]

West Ham vs Arsenal: Hammers hope to destroy Gunners' title hopes in pursuit of top four

There is a fascinating encounter in the race for the Champions League qualification places this Saturday when 6th placed West Ham host 3rd placed Arsenal at Upton Park in a 12:45pm kick off. It was a 2-0 victory to the Hammers on the opening weekend of the season and a repeat of that scoreline will all but end the Gunners' hopes of stealing the Premier League title from the grasp of Leicester.

Selections

Click Here To Bet On BTTS “Yes” @ 1.71 with 10Bet

Click Here To Bet On Dimitri Payet Anytime Scorer @ 4 with Unibet

Full Article: http://punts.pl/2QCaxR

[StevieDay1983]

Manchester City vs West Brom: Pressure on Pellegrini in race for Champions League spots

The race for the Champions League qualification places intensifies this week with 4th placed Manchester City taking on mid-table West Brom at the Etihad Stadium in a 5:30pm kick off this coming Saturday. The big question remains whether City boss Manuel Pellegrini will rest players with one eye on Tuesday's Champions League Quarter Final second leg against PSG or if he will gamble and field a strong side in an effort to consolidate their position in the top four?

Selections

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.15 with Betfair

European Handicap: Draw (Manchester City -1) @ 4.00 with Stan James

Full Article: http://punts.pl/lR6Xin

[StevieDay1983]

Sunderland vs Leicester: Foxes on verge of making British football history

The Premier League title race could be a step closer to being decided this Sunday when league leaders Leicester travel to relegation battlers Sunderland for a 1:30pm kick off at the Stadium of Light. A win for the Foxes would move them to being at least 7 points clear of their rivals with just 5 games left. A win for the Black Cats would give them a great chance of escaping the drop.

Selections

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.78 with NetBet

Draw Outright @ 3.5 with Betfred

Full Article: http://punts.pl/j0sJfK

[StevieDay1983]

Tottenham vs Manchester United: Spurs need win to keep pressure on leaders Leicester

There is a crunch game at the top of the table this Sunday at 4pm when Premier League title contenders Tottenham host top four candidates Manchester United at White Hart Lane. Defeat for either side could spell the end of their aspirations for the season but a victory would put them in potential prime positions to achieve what they want to achieve. The title is the aim for Spurs and the Champions League qualification spots are in the firing line for the Red Devils. There is everything to play for.

Selections

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.74 with NetBet

Asian Handicap: Manchester United +0.5 @ 2.00 with BetVictor

Harry Kane Anytime Scorer @ 2.25 with bet365

Full Article: http://punts.pl/80X61M

[potus]

On 5 April 2016 at 15:24:19, andrewcalo said:

http://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/why-are-so-few-premier-league-teams-winning-home-season#:N1ws1FYPjug86A 

 

This article helps explain the slow start at the beginning of the season ... we should see a lot more home wins now to make up for the lack of team cohesion at the start of the season, and the skills learnt this season re: playing possession-based football.

 

p.s. As a final caveat, managed to find out home wins, draws and away wins for 11/12 - results support the above lol:

 

 

 

H 171  45%

 

D 93   25%

 

A 116   31%

 

I'm sorry but I still see this as an incredibly poor understanding of statistics on your part. 

 

This season has been truly bizarre by all accounts and possible measures. I mean, for one, Leicester City are on the verge of winning the league. If something that inconceivable can happen, then surely it's far more plausible to believe that the number of home wins in the season can deviate from its usual around 45%, down to around 40%.

 

You seem to suggest that because home wins have been around 45% for five years that they will definitely find a way of reaching that exact level again by the end of this season but that's not necessarily the case at all. 

[andrewcalo]

I'm suggesting it's probable. We saw a bizarre raft of results mid-season where many teams were winning against the odds and I think this is going to happen again in the last six weeks. For example, I think Sunderland, Swansea and Watford will win this week.

[andrewcalo]

Have a look at the results in the 13/14 season. Up until the last seven weeks the number of home wins was on course for about 48%. Then it righted itself with only 25 home wins out of 74 games - roughly 3 a week. Final tally was 44%. 

Edited April 8, 2016 by andrewcalo
correction

[potus]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Have a look at the results in the 13/14 season. Up until the last seven weeks the number of home wins was on course for about 48%. Then it righted itself with only 25 home wins out of 74 games - roughly 3 a week. Final tally was 44%. 

One of the basics I remember from studying statistics is that what happens next is not influenced by what happened before. So, if we were going to toss a coin a hundred times and after eighty of them we had already hit our expected value of 50 heads, you can't say 'Hardly any of the next twenty will be heads, because it has to even out back towards its expected value.' That's incorrect logic and the next twenty you would still expect ten heads. 

 

I understand football is slightly different as it is not a random event like tossing a coin, but the same principles and logic apply. If your expected value is 45% home wins then that is what you expect to happen in the last 6-7 weeks of the season NOT a much larger number to bring the whole season back in line with the 45% figure.

 

 

[andrewcalo]

K, answer me this - how is it that there's a range of home wins that is only 4 percentage points apart over five seasons? Surely your logic would mean that range would be all over the shop?

[allthethings]

potus is absolutely correct: There is no reason to think that home wins will come to some magical number just because it has happened for the past five years. What about two years, ten years, or twenty?

Just take a look at Ligue 2 in France this season. Year after year, in matches involving clear favorites, draws predominate when the underdog gets something from a match. This season, they don't. In matches involving a favorite of under 2.0 to an underdog of up to 5.99, this is the percentage of draws from the 2009-10 season on: 35%, 29%, 35%, 32%, 30%, 32% — and this season, 20%. What changed? How would I know? But I know I would never start betting draws all over the place in the last weeks of the season because that percentage "has to" somehow magically get to 30% by the end of the season.

Edited April 9, 2016 by allthethings

[andrewcalo]

Gents, we will see...

[allthethings]

We may see, but we won't know what seeing home sides win more matches means. Palace, Southampton, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs could all win at home this week, and West Ham or Watford could be the sixth, and it would not show reversion to the mean, or whatever. It would more likely mean that the schedule is friendly to home sides this week, as it typically is.

One more thing...I study underdogs, and traditionally the last six weeks of the Premier League season have few upsets, with one exception: away dogs in the range of 5.0 to 5.99 significantly outperform their season average, and by the way, week 36 is when they have typically done the most damage. At other ranges, the upset wins are very rare. Away dogs of better than 8.0 do about 1 to 2 percent better than the 10% season average...so, you know, Norwich can win at Man City at a key moment, but usually it's Arsenal or Man U or Chelsea away winning out. We'll see whether Leicester and Spurs can do the same.

[rjw209]

18 hours ago, potus said:

One of the basics I remember from studying statistics is that what happens next is not influenced by what happened before. So, if we were going to toss a coin a hundred times and after eighty of them we had already hit our expected value of 50 heads, you can't say 'Hardly any of the next twenty will be heads, because it has to even out back towards its expected value.' That's incorrect logic and the next twenty you would still expect ten heads. 

 

I understand football is slightly different as it is not a random event like tossing a coin, but the same principles and logic apply. If your expected value is 45% home wins then that is what you expect to happen in the last 6-7 weeks of the season NOT a much larger number to bring the whole season back in line with the 45% figure.

 

 

This is correct, the logic that because X happened then Y must be imminent 'as it always has been' is a fallacy.  It might be a trend, but it is not a trend that you would like to back money on.  A better one to look at is the Man United at home: HT 0-0/draw (I don't know the exact data) - as that has consistently landed for me and uses the form of this season which is a current piece of analysis.  

Tactics are different this season, games suit away teams that can punch through a defence using pace on the counter.     

[potus]

Thanks to the other posters for backing me up there - I thought I was going mad for a minute.

 

I did fail statistics at university but I didn't think my understanding of statistics was that bad! Most basic statistics is just simple logic anyway.

[clubgowi]

Premier League: West Ham United - Arsenal

It is very hard for me to understand quite how the Gunners are not EPL champions elect, instead it looks like Leicester City and I never thought that I would be typing those words in my lifetime. Arsenal again faltered when the pressure was on and now, that it is off , we have seen a return to some of their better form and they have looked decent once more in back to back wins and cleansheets over Everton and Watford, scoring six in the process. They might not have beaten much (both teams are out of sorts), but confidence will have been boosted and Alexis Sanchez (Gunners are 10-1-0 when he scores and the last ten of those have all gone "over") is returning to form, Laurent Koscielny is back and they look far more composed with him in the line up and the performances of Mohamed Elneny and Alex Iwobi offer huge promise. They looked booked for top 3, so will surely not make their final trip to the Boleyn Ground with eyes on anything but maximum points and to try and put some pressure on the top two, if the Foxes are out of reach, Arsenal will still be motivated to finish above Tottenham, their deadliest rival.

United have had a final season to remember at Upton Park , look sure to finish top 6 and are still not out of the running for a Champions League spot, although back to back 2-2 draws have made that difficult. They are still in the FA Cup and have a big quarter final replay with Manchester United here in midweek. That could distract them, with a Wembley appearance up for grabs, but they are at full strength today and will surely look to keep the CL dream alive a little longer. When everything clicks, they have looked as good as anyone in the Premier league this season and are unbetaen on home soil in 15 starts (9-6-0) in all competitions.

Arsenal are unbeaten here in eight visits and have scored two or more goals in the last seven. United have conceded seven in their last four starts and with a point having very limited value to either side, it is easy to see both teams on the scoresheet today and the Hammers seven London derby games this season have averaged 3.29 goals and they have scored in each, two or more in five, Arsenal's eight starts against fellow top six teams have produced 3.625 goals per game and we will surely see more of the same this lunchtime.

over 3 goals 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket
 

[andrewcalo]

Damn Carroll is on fire.

Edited April 9, 2016 by andrewcalo

[KearonC]

Whoever has kept on spamming Leicester to win 1-nil well done to them. I've only just caught a win on the Sunderland game.

[AdrianFish]

Origi (anytime) won me quite a bit this weekend. I figured after scoring in the Europa League during the week, he might grab a goal against a shakey Stoke City side (AND I WAS RIGHT OH YEAH)

[owenclass]

West Ham might win this weekend as they are playing well