Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
** ELO Ratings are now back **

National League - Nov 21st


Sir Puntalot

Recommended Posts

21/11/2015 Aldershot 22.25 14.00 - 44.50 46.00 Wrexham -23.75
21/11/2015 Altrincham FC 28.25 34.50 - 40.00 28.00 Boreham Wood +0.25
21/11/2015 Braintree Town 19.25 24.50 - 23.50 23.50 Kidderminster -4.25
21/11/2015 Cheltenham 37.75 47.00 - 32.00 40.50 Forest Green -2.75
21/11/2015 Chester FC 40.25 50.00 - 65.00 41.50 Woking -1.25
21/11/2015 Dover Athletic 39.50 30.00 - 20.50 16.25 Barrow +23.25
21/11/2015 Eastleigh 28.00 38.00 - 50.00 44.00 Grimsby -16.00
21/11/2015 Gateshead 25.50 28.50 - 27.00 21.25 Halifax +4.25
21/11/2015 Macclesfield 45.75 47.50 - 31.00 26.75 Bromley +19.00
21/11/2015 Torquay 26.25 29.50 - 40.50 41.75 Lincoln -15.50
21/11/2015 Tranmere 39.00 26.00 - 14.50 18.75 Guiseley +20.25
21/11/2015 Welling United 31.75 24.00 - 38.00 33.00 Southport -1.25
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tipped Eastleigh up at the start of the season and have mentioned a few times that as the price has drifted out that they are still worth backing. I personally have got a high price of 33/1 which is amazing given they were 8/1 pre season. They are currently 14/1 and I am amazed they are still as big as that and they look a cracking each way bet. They had a pretty big blip when Richard Hill decided to resign. Fair play to him for making that decision as Chris Todd has come in and had a fantastic impact. They have won six out of the eight league games he has been in charge for which has included wins over Wrexham, Tranmere, FGR and Dover. They also got a point at league leaders Cheltenham and were unlucky not to get all three as they battered them in the second half. That tremendous run of form has seen them climb to 3rd in the table and they have a game in hand over the two teams above them which if won would close the gap to three points. I still think they have the best squad in the division and they will have money to spend to strengthen it come January (especially with their FA Cup run) and apart from Forest Green it is hard to see how the others will have too much money to spare to improve their squads. Given they were 8/1 at the start of the season I don't understand why Eastleigh are bigger than that now. Cheltenham look short enough as they have had a bit of luck along the way despite only losing twice and I can't help thinking that they will go through a poor run at some point. FGR look the biggest dangers to me and Grimsby have moved up to 4th without always overly impressing. At the moment they are drawing too many away games, but if they can turn some of them into wins then they will have a say as well. There are a few teams just in behind these four and Lincoln are the ones I think most likely to break into the top four but ultimately I do think the current top four will be the top four at the end of the season.

I said at the start of the season I would be amazed if Eastleigh weren't in the top three come April and I stand by that. The bookies seem to have missed their impressive run of results and have been way too slow to cut their odds. Quite why Wrexham deserve to be a single figure price I don't know and they certainly shouldn't be a shorter price than Eastleigh and Eastleigh are the only team to have beaten them at home. They host Grimsby at the weekend and that is another big game which hopefully they will avoid defeat in, but it wouldn't be a disaster should they happen to lose. The FA Cup run will boost confidence even more and if they could just keep a few clean sheets that would help as well. I have been backing them all season and I really do think at 14/1 they rate a fantastic e/w bet.

Edited by addpea
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Altrincham v Boreham Wood

There have been some strange market moves going on in the National League games this weekend and the move on Boreham Wood is one of them. Apart from that shock win at Bromley a couple of weeks ago they have been struggling for form and they were knocked out of the FA Cup on Monday night by Northwich Victoria a team from Step 4. They got a decent enough point last Saturday against Chester although the weather seemed to play a big part. Altrincham will probably be a little disappointed not to have picked up more points as they have been drawing or losing to the teams around them. The win against Barnsley in the FA Cup though seems to have given them a lift as they played well despite losing 3-0 to Macclesfield and although Bromley's defence gave them a few early Christmas presents last weekend, they still deserved to win the game. There probably isn't a great deal between these two sides, but given Altrincham's good form at home they have to be favourites so the fact Ladbrokes go 19/10 about a home win means they have to be backed.

 

Chester v Woking

There are a few matches in the National League on Saturday where it does appear to be fairly obvious who is going to win. Wrexham go to a poor at home Aldershot who played on Wednesday night, but the price has gone. Braintree host Kidderminster, but the away side do seem to be improving and Braintree had a tough game at Oxford in midweek and that is enough to put me off at odds on. Lincoln go to Torquay and should win although take the defeat at Barrow last weekend out and Torquay's recent efforts read well enough so again it is enough for me to leave alone. Welling are hard to beat at home, but Southport have a new boss and there probably isn't much difference in sides so the prices are about right. If Darren Kelly was still in charge at Halifax I would have been lumping on Gateshead, but their defending was worse when he took over so there is that unknown factor on how they will set up. Also Gateshead aren't in the greatest of form themselves. Having said that as I write they are drifting and if they went odds against I would have to get involved.

That leads me on to the one game I am playing in that looks obvious. As I said last week when taking them on Woking are awful at the moment and in a right mess. They are a young side and they are clearly suffering because of it. There are some bad sides beneath them in the table, but I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at 22/1 on them to go down. Chester are in good form themselves having only lost to Forest Green in their last five games. They are pretty strong at home and I don't understand why they aren't odds on across the board to win this. They are 15/13 with Marathon and I think that is the bet of the weekend. Hopefully I have chosen the right game to get involved in.

 

Eastleigh v Grimsby

I am probably boring people who follow me on Twitter about how strongly I fancy Eastleigh to win the league, or at the very least finish top 3. I am astonished they are still 14/1 for the title and you won't find better each-way value than that. Interestingly this is 3rd v 4th and the top 2 play each other as well so it is a big weekend. I can't understand why Grimsby are such strong favourites for this game. Granted they have only lost one on the road, but they have only won three and have picked up too many draws in games they should really be winning. Eastleigh are on a superb run of form since Chris Todd took over as manager and they have been beating the teams around them in the table apart from losing to Braintree early on and drawing at Cheltenham in a game they should really have won. They beat League 1 Crewe in the FA Cup and confidence has to be sky high at the moment. The one criticism is they don't keep enough clean sheets, but they should be slight favourites to win this given they are at home, currently above Grimsby in the table and arguably have a better side. Obviously the draw has to be considered given Grimsby love to draw away, but Eastleigh have only drawn once at home and the price is so wrong for me that at 12/5 (Marathon and Bet 365) that the home win has to be the bet.

 

Basingstoke v Maidstone

Given the home side made the play-offs last season it is amazing how badly they are doing this season. Just one win and nine points on the board from 17 games. Maidstone on the other hand are flying after promotion from the Ryman Premier and are currently sitting in the play-off places. Oddly given they play on a 3g pitch their away form has been better than their home form this season. They have won five and lost just once on their travels. They have been in really good form as well and Marathon's 11/10 looks a very good price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi all,

Today I don't have many teams to fancy.I fancy bromley as an outsider to cause an upset.Second team is gateshead to draw with halifax because in the past the tie ended in many draws when these two teams met.Finally the last team is bath city which can snatch a win because h2h shows bath won more than losses.

Good luck and hope we can make a good profit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Southern Premier League

Chesham to beat Paulton Rovers is my best pick today . Chesham should be higher in the tabel and have already beat the best teams Poole Town and Reddicht . They are in a good run and have also just eliminated Bristol Rovers in the FA Cup 1st round. 

Paulton is in the bottom and have 0 wins and 7 draws . I think there is lot of value in the odds, 2.00 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I said I would back Gateshead if they drifted to odds against and they have done with Hills so have had to play. Jim Harvey takes control of Halifax and I do like him as a manager so he may be able to sort out the defence, but chances are he will need longer than a few days and although Gateshead not in the best of form they have been playing the better sides in the division on the whole so hopefully they can put the worse team in the league to bed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...