Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Yes, I'm totally speechless as well! Chelsea's left to complete the Grex Full House, but it's already a profitable weekend for the system and for my bank as well! :cheers

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Yes, Pokka :welcome & Relf... it certainly was an amazing comeback by Birmingham thanks to the "veteran" Kevin Phillips. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] So another GREX FULL HOUSE for the weekend.... that makes 8 out of the last 9 bets, with the yield rock-solid around the 20% mark :dude [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
64			24/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Genoa		1	0		Atalanta	1.94		0.00		11.43		12.16			W		11.43		70%			1,154.62			14.0%			17.6%			17.5%		Pinnacle
65			26/01/2010			EPL		Bolton		1	0		Burnley	1.80		2.51		11.55		17.58			W		14.06		70%			1,168.68			15.1%			18.6%			18.5%		Bet365
66			26/01/2010			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		Fulham	1.61		2.51		11.55		23.05			W		14.06		71%			1,182.74			16.0%			19.2%			19.2%		Pinnacle
67			27/01/2010			EPL		Everton		2	0		Sunderland	1.66		2.51		11.55		21.30			W		14.06		71%			1,196.80			16.9%			19.9%			20.0%		Pinnacle
68			31/01/2010			IA		Juventus		1	1		Lazio	1.81		0.00		11.97		14.78			L		-14.78		70%			1,182.02			15.4%			18.1%			18.0%		Pinnacle
69			03/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		1	0		Portsmouth	1.83		0.00		11.82		14.24			W		11.82		71%			1,193.84			16.2%			19.1%			19.1%		Pinnacle
70			06/02/2010			IA		Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Posting mid-week selections a bit early..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
70			06/02/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City					Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83																					Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham					Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68																					Pinnacle

[skinnyman9000]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I am enjoying this thread, and im watching with great interest, but i do have one question about the reserved nature of the stakes. You seem to have a system that has average odds of around 1.6, and a strike rate of 70%, so why only use 1% bank stakes? Im not arguing against the system as it clearly works, but for me a system with those stats would be quite safe with a stakes increase to around 5%.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for your interest, Skinnyman. I agree that the greater your % stakes, the higher will be your running profit - but the real measure of the success (or failure) of a system is the yield..... and it makes no difference to the yield whether you use stakes of 1%, 5% or 20% of your bank.

[skinnyman9000]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good point. Is the idea to judge the yield during a trial period to then increase the stakes?

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites skinnyman9000;1600649 What !..... are some people actually putting hard cash on these selections ?? :loon ;)

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Yes, that's me, since the start of 2010. But I don't put equal stakes on every matches though - a little more on matches that I'm more confident and vice versa, as well as, increasing the amount during loss recovery (with a maximum limit though).

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1600757 You're a brave man :loon....... my original "loss-recovery" system (18.8% yield) is not performing as well as "flat stakes" (21.8% yield) or "1% bank stakes" (22.0% yield). Good luck anyway, Relf :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Another GREX FULL HOUSE (OK, there were only 2 selections :lol)…. and the system continues to exceed all my expectations. I can not really explain it….. it is a simple system which does not take into account statistical probabilities or “value” bets… it simply selects home wins within a particular range of odds. The only explanation I can offer (apart from LUCK, of course ;)) is the relatively high percentage of home wins in both the EP and IA this season. For the EPL, the average home wins over the previous 10 seasons was 47.5%, whereas this season, it is running at 51.24%. For Serie A, the previous average was 46.28%... this season, home wins account for 49.78% of results. Statistically, this is a HUGE variation and does, to some extent explain the system’s success. Of course, you still have to pick ‘em. :dude

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
70			06/02/2010			IA		Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap It's been an awesome week so far! I only took Fulham but I guess any amount of profit is good enough! Happened to read the match reports and it was mentioned that the first two goals by Fulham were both offside. So we are lucky? Haha. :loon

[soeyaza]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap congratulations for your selection!!!! carry on!!!!!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1601600 Lucky?..... probably.... but these things have a habit of evening out.... probably, tonight the marginal decisions will go against us :\

[vodka]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Blackburn-Hull tonigth ? 1.8 @ Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=soeyaza;1601662]:clap congratulations for your selection!!!! carry on!!!!![/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks, Soeyaza...... "carry on"?..... do not worry, I will.... at least until evrything goes pear-shaped ;) [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites vodka;1601864 Well spotted, Vodka :ok..... and better odds on Pinnacle

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
73			09/02/2010			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle
75			10/02/2010			EPL		Blackburn					Hull	1.88		0.00		12.58		14.30																					Pinnacle

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hmm, I'm actually have this question in my mind for quite some time. What's the selection criteria when the odds are fluctuating around the cut-offs? Blackburn opened at 1.80 early in the week, but went up to 1.83 before coming down to 1.80 a few hours ago. Earlier, Genoa (no.64 in your selection) opened at 1.75 before going all the way to 1.88 I think. There were also cases of odds hovering over and under 1.45 at different times of the day.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good question, Relf. The back testing which established the odds range of 1.45 to 1.80 was based on data from football-data.co.uk. I asked the owner at what time he takes the odds information - the response was that odds are normally taken on the morning of the match. To be honest, I don't think this issue is that critical. I normally make my selections based on Bet365 about 24 hours before the match... so not the same time interval as the historical data..... but it seems to be working so far. ;) Regarding odds that hover around the cut-off.... I use my discretion as to whether or not to include the game. BTW, hope your team produces the goods this evening [/FONT]:hope

[skinnyman9000]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Im enjoying the simplicity of this system, subscribed now too

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Glad you're enjoying it, Skinnyman..... a simple system for a simple mind (I'm referring to myself, of course :eek) [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks to Relf's Blackburn (and to Vodka for spotting the selection) :ok.....

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle
75			10/02/2010			EPL		Blackburn		1	0		Hull	1.88		0.00		12.58		14.30			W		12.58		73%			1,270.76			20.8%			23.7%			24.1%		Pinnacle

[MedimeX]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap 8 in a row...well done mate

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I guess Blackburn are probably safe in the mid-table regions after that win. :D Just took a count and found out that your strike rate for 2010 is 20/24 = 83.3%! It's really amazing for odds in the 1.45-1.8 region. (In fact, odds above 1.2 would have attained a positive yield for this kind of strike rate!)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites MedimeX;1602303 Thanks, MedimeX..... let's hope the "run" continues :hope:hope

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1602326]I guess Blackburn are probably safe in the mid-table regions after that win. :D Just took a count and found out that your strike rate for 2010 is 20/24 = 83.3%! It's really amazing for odds in the 1.45-1.8 region. (In fact, odds above 1.2 would have attained a positive yield for this kind of strike rate!)[/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]If only Blackburn could improve their away performance, then perhaps they could be challenging for a European Champions League spot :loon. Yes, the recent strike rate is amazing, and probably won't continue :\. I'll try to do an analysis to see if an extended odds range would have improved the yield :ok[/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites European Champions League?? LOL! Frankly, I would be delighted with a Top 10 finish. They haven't got a generous budget to spend on, and the chairman is quite resistant against takeovers. Come to think of it, takeovers aren't always good for the clubs if you look at West Ham, Portsmouth, and even Liverpool. As for the extended odds range, I think you would probably see a improved yield for this season, perhaps due to the abnormally high home win %. As for previous seasons, I'm not quite sure. Different bands of odds (1.45 to 1.8, 1.8 to 2.0, etc) perform differently for seasons, but interestingly, they even out to give a consistent 40-plus % home win at the end of the season.

[vodka]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Me again if you didn't see i thing that tonight we have one game to bet on: Ac Milan- Udinese 1,57@bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=vodka;1603412]Me again if you didn't see i thing that tonight we have one game to bet on: Ac Milan- Udinese 1,57@bet365[/quote] I'm sorry, Vodka..... I had this match in my spreadsheet a few days ago, and I thought I had posted the selection (that's the problem with having so many systems running at the same time) :\. As Vodka posted before the match started, I think it is reasonable to include it.... apologies to everybody :$ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] This weekend, the system is relying on Italy Serie A.... let's hope they don't let us down :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]		[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]			[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Recovery Target[/B]		[B]Bank Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]		[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]			[B]Bank[/B]			[B]Yield[/B]			[SIZE=1]Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes		[/SIZE]
								[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																						1,000.00			START								[/SIZE]
70			06/02/2010			IA		Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			[SIZE=1]W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle
75			10/02/2010			EPL		Blackburn		1	0		Hull	1.88		0.00		12.58		14.30			W		12.58		73%			1,270.76			20.8%			23.7%			24.1%		Pinnacle
76			12/02/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Milan[/COLOR]		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Roma[/COLOR]					Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11																					Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Chievo[/COLOR]					Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04																					Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Juventus[/COLOR]					Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11																					Pinnacle
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Another one bites the dust :D [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
70			06/02/2010			IA		Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			[SIZE=1]W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle
75			10/02/2010			EPL		Blackburn		1	0		Hull	1.88		0.00		12.58		14.30			W		12.58		73%			1,270.76			20.8%			23.7%			24.1%		Pinnacle
76			12/02/2010			IA		Milan		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		Roma		4	1		Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		74%			1,296.30			22.1%			24.9%			25.4%		Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		Chievo					Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04																					Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		Juventus					Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11																					Pinnacle

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Congratulations! This is really getting unbelieveable (in a good sense)! :nana