antogz Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 sagan for today. this finish suits him perfectly, he is very strong and surely he can win this. My outside picks. Coquard 33/1 Albisini 50/1 Gallopin 16/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 A chance of crosswinds today. The key hill is 900m long at 7%, and is followed by 500m of flat (well, the slightest of inclines) before the finish line. I'm not totally convinced Sagan is in the form to blow everyone away on the hill. He or Degenkolb might find themselves forced to chase down and lead out other riders on the final flat, so I see value in their opponents. I took Van Avermaet @16 (Betfair) and Gallopin @20 (Betfair) - I like their form in the Tour so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcie25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I can see some value in avermaet 11/1 Although looking at the sprint yesterday, sagan is gonna be the winner... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Think it isn't worth backing Sagan as he always finds a way of being beaten. He won't chase an attack as he doesn't want to waste his energy and the others won't chase just to set it up for Sagan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 sagan for today. this finish suits him perfectly, he is very strong and surely he can win this. My outside picks. Coquard 33/1 Albisini 50/1 Gallopin 16/1 Coquard gets the e/w money. Agree with Addpea on Sagan, he also is happy just to get those points for the green jersey. Today anyone can win it in my opinion. Just going to have a small bet on Kristoff 8/1 and Coquard.. 33/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Could be the first chance for a break tomorrow with the big teams all keeping their powder dry for the TTT. If the break doesn't succeed,Rodriguez, Martin, and Gallopin would be my favourites. If a break can stay away expect a few of, yates brothers, Simon, Chavenal, Morabito, Gautier, Pauwels, Pozzato, Wellens, Elmiger, Meintjes and Voeckler. being in the break. My bets 1.5pts e/w Gallopin 12/1 VC. 1pt e/w Martin 18/1Corlas 1pt e/w S Yates 33/1 generally. 1pt e/w Gautier 100/1 Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 I just wonder if Orica riders might save themselves for the TTT given they have so few riders left and it will be a very tough day for them. Certainly expect Simon to give it a go at some point though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 This finish proved tough enough to involve the big boys in 2011, so I'm taking some prices that there'll be GC guys in the frame again. I like Froome to win @23 (Betfair), & to place @5 (Betfair). He doesn't have the explosion of some other riders, but his team are great at putting him in position, and he's clearly in great condition. I notice Uran finished 3rd on the Mur-de-Bretagne in 2011. Maybe he likes this climb, so I'm taking Uran @80/1 e/w (Boylesports or PaddyPower - both pay 4 places). I think Van Garderen's form also gives him a realistic shot at finishing in the top four: Van Garderen @80/1 e/w (PaddyPower - pays 4 places). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Hmm... actually, maybe Boylesports' 16/1 e/w on Froome is the better bet, given that it pays 4 places. For some reason, 4th feels a lot more likely than 3rd to me with some of these GC guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Team Sky to win Stage Nine 9/2 paddy power I love these team time trials and Team Sky seem to do well and with Froome and other great riders in the team they can win this and at this price then it is worth a bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 First big mountain top finish tomorrow. Froome is a worthy favourite but a bit short for me. Bastille day tomorrow so I expect the French boys to go for this. I'm going all French in my betting. I think a break has a very good chance tomorrow if the right men can get in it. Pinot, Rolland, Barguil, Peraud, Bardet, Vuillermoz, Geniez, Gautier and Cherel would be the big French favourites. 1.5 pt e/w Pinot 25/1 generally. 1.5pts e/w Rolland 40/1 >boyles 1 pt e/w Vuillermoz 55/1 corals 1pt e/w Geniez 150/1 generally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 No doubt there will be Frenchmen in the break, but fairly rare a Frenchman actually wins on Bastille Day. I think Simon Yates will win a stage on this years Tour and I think tomorrow would be a good one for him to go for. 100/1 with Boyles paying 4 places seems worth a go. Froome doesn't need to attack tomorrow and I think he will be aggressive especially after the video that has appeared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Not sure if a break survives tomorrow. I tend to think it won't but by the same token there's no great reason for anyone to chase. From the break I like Rolland (36 Betfair), Riblon (101 - various) and Meintjes (120 Betfair). If a break doesn't succeed then it's worth noting the first part of the climb is quite harder than the latter part. That may mean we won't see big time differences and one of the lesser GC riders could go on the attack looking for the win, Thibaut Pinot (34 Betfair) looks a standout and I wouldn't rule out a move from Warren Barguil (60 Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Pinot looks badly out of form, almost like everything that has happened to him has knocked his confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Fascinating stage for punters given the wide open market. Today's big mountains look too far from the finish for GC wars. However, I think Sky will ride a solid tempo that will reduce the peloton [could be 30-ish riders???], and make it quite difficult for breakaways. It could be a day for an early break, but only if the group is quite large and they're allowed to gain a big lead quickly. I can see the race for the stage win hotting up near the top of the Tourmalet, especially on the descent. For that scenario, I want riders who are good enough to stay with the tempo on the Tourmalet, great at descending, good enough to win up the Category 3 final climb, and preferably not a GC threat. Nibali (@60, Betfair) is out of form by his standards, but even an out-of-form Nibali fits the above description. He's 7 minutes back and has proven his weakness, so I don't think Sky will be too concerned with him. Today's profile looks ideal for him. I also really like Sammy Sanchez @130 (Betfair), and I took a bit of Mick Rogers @190 (Betfair). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Today is made for a strong breakaway and they should go close unless Froome goes ape shit again today. Rolland would be my big favourite for today,he will be going for the KOM and he looked very strong yesterday. Also he is that bit down on GC now. Adam Yates ticks all those boxes as well, he is another that I expect to go well today. There are so many good climbers far down on GC that you have up to 30 genuine contenders for todays stage. My other 2 picks are. Valls and Fugslang. 2pts e/w Rolland 16/1 skybet. 1.5pts e/w A Yates 33/1 general 1pt e/w Valls 40/1 1pt e/w Fugslang 40/1 general Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It was a great effort by Dan but I knew it was a bad move trying to bridge across in that heat. He should have waited for another day when he missed the initial break. At least Froome didn't get to win anyway. If a break doesn't stay away today, he wins easily again, so I,m praying for a strong break. I'm going to go with the breakaway riders as the odds are better value even though I think it will be 50_50. Yesterdays break was weak with only Majka and Martin real mountain men. Hopefully today we see some of Rolland, Rogers, Valls, A Yates, Rodriguez, Bardet, Pinot, Talansky, Peraud Hesjedal, Kangert, Uran in the break. Acombination of these would have more than a fifty fifty chance of staying away. The 4 I'm going for are 1pt e/w Bardet 80/1 general 1pt e/w Rodgers 125/1 skybet 1pt e/w Talansky 100/1 general 1pt e/w Kangert 100/1 >betfred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 if you have followed me from the start we are up a nice profit at the moment. picks for tomorrow Stybar 18/1 Van Avermat 20/1 De GEndht 66/1 Geschke 80/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 Suddenly after Sky looking good things for the Team Competition Movistar are hot favs so at least one of my pre race plays is in a strong position. Added Froome to my KOTM bets pre yesterday's stage as chances are he will win another mountain top finish at that might well be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bockoboc Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 if you have followed me from the start we are up a nice profit at the moment. picks for tomorrow Stybar 18/1 Van Avermat 20/1 De GEndht 66/1 Geschke 80/1 Chapeau! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Hi i did one tip on this forum for Sky to win the Team time trial but they came second so im doing another bet and hopefully i will do better Todays stage im going for Michal Kwiatkowski 25/1 paddy power Alberto Contador 25/1 paddy power Bauke Mollema 33/1 paddy power Rafal Majka 40/1 paddy power Some of these riders are due a win and Majka can win again and at that price he is worth backing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nice winner yesterday with Van Avermat. Again a break has a serious chance if the right men get involved. My picks today. Rodriguez 7/1 win Galloping 33/1 Vuillermoz 33/1 Kangert 66/1 all e/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Likely to be won by the early break, and it finishes in a short, sharp climb. By this stage of the Tour, you can have a really clear idea of riders' form. I like Dan Martin @18/1 (Coral / Sportingbet), Vuillermoz @33/1 (Coral), & especially Simon Yates @110 (Betfair). Purito's also worth considering, but I find the 7/1 less appealing. Also, Boylesports' offer to pay 5 places each-way is interesting. I'm not very good at picking the breaks, but Fedrigo @125/1 e/w makes sense to me - even without the win, it's almost 16/1 to finish top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Andre Greipel to win Stage 9/1 paddy power I think maybe he is due another stage win as he he is one the best sprinters in the world and he is worth a bet with this price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcie25 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Today should end up in a sprint, it is the last sprint before the finish on the Champs. There are some mountains but not to difficult for sprinters like Sagan-Kristoff-Degenkolb. Sagan is still trying to win a race... Kristoff hasn't really shown what he can do, degenkolb needs to time his sprint better... outsider for me is M. Matthews so my picks: Sagan Degenkolb Kristoff Matthews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddasd Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 There was some talk about disqualification sagan in todays stage.. Does someone knows anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Andre Greipel to win Stage 9/1 paddy power :cigar I think maybe he is due another stage win as he he is one the best sprinters in the world and he is worth a bet with this price Well i was not expecting that my first bet that has won me some money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandaddyCrunk Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Stage 16 Valverde 12/1 Matthews 25/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Guaranteed breakaway today. Mathews says he want this and is feeling a lot better. He has to be a man for the break 50/1 is huge. My other picks are Jungles 66/1, Gallopin 25/1 and Bakelants 35/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcie25 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Well i was not expecting that my first bet that has won me some money Congrats! Didn't expect Greipel... Sagan put to much energy in the breakaway... Bad call from him and his team... Today is going to be hectic in the begin of the race. The big teams won't be putting much energy in a chase, so a breakaway will be a succes. It is hard to pick some riders, but everyone who is placed between place 15 and 30 can be in the breakaway. It is a technical stage to the bottom... Picks for me are: Rodriguez - Roland - Bakelands Outsiders: Kruijswijk Talansky Bak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.