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lol - Lemond's giving the same view as I said in the pre-race show. He mentioned the time bonuses as well - I forgot about those (10s for 1st, 6s for 2nd, 4s for 3rd). That makes Froome @50/1 (Ladbrok

The rain doesn't look like coming today so I don't think the cobbles are not going to be a huge issue. This is not the Paris Roubaix and the cobble sections are not that difficult with the last sectio

if you have followed me from the start we are up a nice profit at the moment. picks for tomorrow Stybar 18/1 Van Avermat 20/1 De GEndht 66/1 Geschke 80/1

A chance of crosswinds today. The key hill is 900m long at 7%, and is followed by 500m of flat (well, the slightest of inclines) before the finish line. I'm not totally convinced Sagan is in the form to blow everyone away on the hill. He or Degenkolb might find themselves forced to chase down and lead out other riders on the final flat, so I see value in their opponents. I took Van Avermaet @16 (Betfair) and Gallopin @20 (Betfair) - I like their form in the Tour so far.

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sagan for today. this finish suits him perfectly, he is very strong and surely he can win this. My outside picks. Coquard 33/1 Albisini 50/1 Gallopin 16/1
Coquard gets the e/w money. Agree with Addpea on Sagan, he also is happy just to get those points for the green jersey. Today anyone can win it in my opinion. Just going to have a small bet on Kristoff 8/1 and Coquard.. 33/1.
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Could be the first chance for a break tomorrow with the big teams all keeping their powder dry for the TTT. If the break doesn't succeed,Rodriguez, Martin, and Gallopin would be my favourites. If a break can stay away expect a few of, yates brothers, Simon, Chavenal, Morabito, Gautier, Pauwels, Pozzato, Wellens, Elmiger, Meintjes and Voeckler. being in the break. My bets 1.5pts e/w Gallopin 12/1 VC. 1pt e/w Martin 18/1Corlas 1pt e/w S Yates 33/1 generally. 1pt e/w Gautier 100/1 Ladbrokes

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This finish proved tough enough to involve the big boys in 2011, so I'm taking some prices that there'll be GC guys in the frame again. I like Froome to win @23 (Betfair), & to place @5 (Betfair). He doesn't have the explosion of some other riders, but his team are great at putting him in position, and he's clearly in great condition. I notice Uran finished 3rd on the Mur-de-Bretagne in 2011. Maybe he likes this climb, so I'm taking Uran @80/1 e/w (Boylesports or PaddyPower - both pay 4 places). I think Van Garderen's form also gives him a realistic shot at finishing in the top four: Van Garderen @80/1 e/w (PaddyPower - pays 4 places).

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First big mountain top finish tomorrow. Froome is a worthy favourite but a bit short for me. Bastille day tomorrow so I expect the French boys to go for this. I'm going all French in my betting. I think a break has a very good chance tomorrow if the right men can get in it. Pinot, Rolland, Barguil, Peraud, Bardet, Vuillermoz, Geniez, Gautier and Cherel would be the big French favourites. 1.5 pt e/w Pinot 25/1 generally. 1.5pts e/w Rolland 40/1 >boyles 1 pt e/w Vuillermoz 55/1 corals 1pt e/w Geniez 150/1 generally.

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No doubt there will be Frenchmen in the break, but fairly rare a Frenchman actually wins on Bastille Day. I think Simon Yates will win a stage on this years Tour and I think tomorrow would be a good one for him to go for. 100/1 with Boyles paying 4 places seems worth a go. Froome doesn't need to attack tomorrow and I think he will be aggressive especially after the video that has appeared.

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Not sure if a break survives tomorrow. I tend to think it won't but by the same token there's no great reason for anyone to chase. From the break I like Rolland (36 Betfair), Riblon (101 - various) and Meintjes (120 Betfair). If a break doesn't succeed then it's worth noting the first part of the climb is quite harder than the latter part. That may mean we won't see big time differences and one of the lesser GC riders could go on the attack looking for the win, Thibaut Pinot (34 Betfair) looks a standout and I wouldn't rule out a move from Warren Barguil (60 Betfair)

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Fascinating stage for punters given the wide open market. Today's big mountains look too far from the finish for GC wars. However, I think Sky will ride a solid tempo that will reduce the peloton [could be 30-ish riders???], and make it quite difficult for breakaways. It could be a day for an early break, but only if the group is quite large and they're allowed to gain a big lead quickly. I can see the race for the stage win hotting up near the top of the Tourmalet, especially on the descent. For that scenario, I want riders who are good enough to stay with the tempo on the Tourmalet, great at descending, good enough to win up the Category 3 final climb, and preferably not a GC threat. Nibali (@60, Betfair) is out of form by his standards, but even an out-of-form Nibali fits the above description. He's 7 minutes back and has proven his weakness, so I don't think Sky will be too concerned with him. Today's profile looks ideal for him. I also really like Sammy Sanchez @130 (Betfair), and I took a bit of Mick Rogers @190 (Betfair).

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Today is made for a strong breakaway and they should go close unless Froome goes ape shit again today. Rolland would be my big favourite for today,he will be going for the KOM and he looked very strong yesterday. Also he is that bit down on GC now. Adam Yates ticks all those boxes as well, he is another that I expect to go well today. There are so many good climbers far down on GC that you have up to 30 genuine contenders for todays stage. My other 2 picks are. Valls and Fugslang. 2pts e/w Rolland 16/1 skybet. 1.5pts e/w A Yates 33/1 general 1pt e/w Valls 40/1 1pt e/w Fugslang 40/1 general

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It was a great effort by Dan but I knew it was a bad move trying to bridge across in that heat. He should have waited for another day when he missed the initial break. At least Froome didn't get to win anyway. If a break doesn't stay away today, he wins easily again, so I,m praying for a strong break. I'm going to go with the breakaway riders as the odds are better value even though I think it will be 50_50. Yesterdays break was weak with only Majka and Martin real mountain men. Hopefully today we see some of Rolland, Rogers, Valls, A Yates, Rodriguez, Bardet, Pinot, Talansky, Peraud Hesjedal, Kangert, Uran in the break. Acombination of these would have more than a fifty fifty chance of staying away. The 4 I'm going for are 1pt e/w Bardet 80/1 general 1pt e/w Rodgers 125/1 skybet 1pt e/w Talansky 100/1 general 1pt e/w Kangert 100/1 >betfred.

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Suddenly after Sky looking good things for the Team Competition Movistar are hot favs so at least one of my pre race plays is in a strong position. Added Froome to my KOTM bets pre yesterday's stage as chances are he will win another mountain top finish at that might well be enough

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Hi i did one tip on this forum for Sky to win the Team time trial but they came second so im doing another bet and hopefully i will do better Todays stage im going for Michal Kwiatkowski 25/1 paddy power Alberto Contador 25/1 paddy power Bauke Mollema 33/1 paddy power Rafal Majka 40/1 paddy power Some of these riders are due a win and Majka can win again and at that price he is worth backing

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Likely to be won by the early break, and it finishes in a short, sharp climb. By this stage of the Tour, you can have a really clear idea of riders' form. I like Dan Martin @18/1 (Coral / Sportingbet), Vuillermoz @33/1 (Coral), & especially Simon Yates @110 (Betfair). Purito's also worth considering, but I find the 7/1 less appealing. Also, Boylesports' offer to pay 5 places each-way is interesting. I'm not very good at picking the breaks, but Fedrigo @125/1 e/w makes sense to me - even without the win, it's almost 16/1 to finish top 5.

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Today should end up in a sprint, it is the last sprint before the finish on the Champs. There are some mountains but not to difficult for sprinters like Sagan-Kristoff-Degenkolb. Sagan is still trying to win a race... Kristoff hasn't really shown what he can do, degenkolb needs to time his sprint better... outsider for me is M. Matthews so my picks: Sagan Degenkolb Kristoff Matthews

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Well i was not expecting that my first bet that has won me some money
Congrats! Didn't expect Greipel... Sagan put to much energy in the breakaway... Bad call from him and his team... Today is going to be hectic in the begin of the race. The big teams won't be putting much energy in a chase, so a breakaway will be a succes. It is hard to pick some riders, but everyone who is placed between place 15 and 30 can be in the breakaway. It is a technical stage to the bottom... Picks for me are: Rodriguez - Roland - Bakelands Outsiders: Kruijswijk Talansky Bak
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